Transcript (Schwartz) Presentation

US relations with China: Balance
or Integrate?
Jonathan Schwartz, Ph.D.
Professor of Political Science &
Asian Studies
SUNY New Paltz
How we will proceed
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Identify the Question
Discuss Theory
Compare the US & China on relevant indicators
Identify interests
Consider US options
Discuss
Our question:
What is the future of US-China
relations?
Why do US-China relations matter?
• Swaine: the United States and China harbor "clashing
assumptions and beliefs about the requirements for
continued order and prosperity in Asia."
• Nixon: “we simply cannot afford to leave China forever
outside the family of nations, there to nurture its
fantasies, cherish its hates and threaten its neighbors.”
• Trump!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL7o6np84pg
Why do US-China relations matter?
(contd.)
• Obama: “We can’t predict with certainty what the future
will bring, but …we know this: The relationship between
the US and China will shape the 21st Century” (US-China Strategic
dialogue, 2009)
• Bremmer: “We should be very clear: China is at virtual
war with the US, and the threat is far higher than that of
terrorism, which gets the lion’s share of attention.” (President,
Eurasia Group)
• Liu Mingfu: “It has been China’s dream for a century to
become the world’s leading nation”. This will happen by
2049. (The China Dream, 2010)
“I’d say a war with China will probably take
place within the next ten years” (Joe Siracusa, Royal
Melbourne Institute of Technology, in Foreign Policy in Focus, June 2015)
Sub-questions
• Is the future inevitably one of growing tensions,
confrontation and ultimately war?
• Should the US simply “fade away”, ceding its place as
leader with grace?
• Can the US and China co-exist as equals?
Power Transition Theory
• Organski (World Politics)
▫ A preponderance of power maintains Peace
▫ There is always a hierarchy of powers
Dominant
power
Middle powers
Small powers
Great powers (source of
challenger)
The logic of transitions to war
Old International Order
New International Order
Dominant state
Time
Challenger state
Great power war free zone
War-prone zone
David Lai, US Army War College, The US & China in Transition
(2011)
Great power war free zone
Conditions to challenge the hegemon
1. 2nd ranked power in demographic and
geographic terms;
2. Enjoys solid economic growth
3. Dissatisfied with existing world order
4. Offers an alternative model
Does China fulfill these conditions?
Does China fulfill the criteria of a
challenger power?
Comparative Geographic, Demographic and Economic Data
Criterion
China
US
Area (km2)
9.6 million
9.8 million
Population
1.4 billion
322 million
GDP (US$)
10.4 trillion
17.5 trillion
GDP (ppp$)
17.6 trillion
17.5 trillion
GDP per capita
12,900
54,800
Growth (2014, %)
7.4
2.4
Current Account Balance
(US$) (2014)
204 billion
-386 billion
HDI rank (2014)
91
5
World Factbook
Financial Times (Oct. 2014)
Comparative Military Data
Criterion
Military spending
China
2 % of GDP
US
4.4% of GDP
Defense Budget
Frontline active duty
military
$145 billion
2.3 million
$577 billion
1.4 million
Aircraft
Aircraft Carriers
Total naval ships
Military strength ranking
2,860
1
673
#3
13,892
20
473
#1
Global Firepower
US Interests
1. Security from attack
2. Maintain US global leadership & world order
3. Maintain healthy US and global economy
These interests result in the Obama
administrations 2012 “Pivot to Asia”
China’s Interests
1.
2.
3.
4.
Domestic stability
Return to past global stature
Ensure a world safe for China’s growth
Resolve border disputes favorably
According to President Xi Jinping, these interests
require the US to recognize a new type of
“Major Power Relationship”.
Options for the US moving forward
• Integrate or Contain?
Post WW II – the US deployed containment
In the 1970s – the US switches to Integration
- The assumption: China will liberalize both
economically and politically
Should the US re-think its policies?
Favoring Containment:
• Domestic challenges in China will result in
aggression abroad.
• China is establishing new international
institutions to challenge the US.
• Current behavior and statements suggest that
China has abandoned its policy of “peaceful rise”
(Deng Xiaoping’s “biding one’s time” is over)
Favoring Integration:
• China’s rise has benefited the US, the World and
China’s citizens
• China sometimes plays a helpful role in
international politics – it may yet become a
“responsible stakeholder”
• As China becomes more interdependent it becomes
less likely to challenge the existing system
• Containment will simply result in a security
dilemma/arms race
• We cannot expect China to bow to US dictates.
Integration: China CANNOT challenge
the US
Elizabeth Economy: China is a “fragile
superpower”
Domestic challenges include:
•Pollution
•Inequality
•Corruption
•Food scandals
•Domestic unrest
•A slowing economy
Nye: “If the US avoids containment and accommodates
China, and if China accepts the US presence in the
Western Pacific, and if both avoid human error and
miscalculation, then conflict is not inevitable.” (China-US
Focus, 2015)
Comforting?
Possible Outcomes
1. US contains China – conflict eventually arises
2. China rises but then fades
3. US integrates/accommodates China and China
continues to rise
Congagement?
Questions to Consider
1. Can China continue its rapid growth and
ultimately surpass/replace the US?
2. Should the US accommodate a new world
order with China as an equal?
3. What is the current US approach? Is this the
correct choice?
Thank You!
Jonathan Schwartz
[email protected]
845-257-2627
For More on the topic:
• Video debate - Joseph Nye vs. John Mearsheimer:
http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/mearsheimer-vsnye-on-the-rise-of-china/
• Orville Schell:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/opinion/canthe-us-and-china-get-along.html
• Chai Jing on Environmental challenges:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6X2uwlQGQM
• Liu Mingfu: “World too important to be left to
America”
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/
2015/06/china-dream-liu-mingfu-power/394748/