Transcript “Metro-Economics”Towards a “Unified Field Theory

ROBERT WEISSBOURD, RW VENTURES, LLC
The Legacy of Dr. King

“The time has come for us to
civilize ourselves by the total,
direct and immediate abolition of
poverty.”

“ At no time has a total,
coordinated and fully adequate
program [for eradicating poverty]
been conceived. As a
consequence, fragmentary and
spasmodic reforms have failed to
reach down to the profoundest
needs of the poor.”
Photo from the Associated Press
Origins: From “Equity” to … “Equity”
Civil Rights
Empowerment
Economic Development: Assets
Economic Development: Markets
Putting the Economics in Economic Development
Poverty and Economic Development
“… poverty has no causes. Only
prosperity has causes.
Analogically, heat is a result of
active processes; it has causes.
But cold is not the result of any
processes; it is only the absence
of heat. Just so, the great cold of
poverty and economic
stagnation is merely the absence
of economic development. It
can be overcome only if the
relevant economic processes are
in motion.”
-- Jane Jacobs
Photo from Shelf-Basin Interactions
Market Failure in Lower Income
Communities
Connectedness
Poverty
• Undervalued,
underutilized assets
• Employment networks
• Entrepreneurial opportunities
• Business, real estate investment
• Expanded products and services
• Competitive, healthy communities
Productivity
Isolation
.4
.2
0
-.2
Wage Growth (1990-2000)
.6
Equity and Opportunity are
Good for Business
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
Poverty Rate (1990)
Inequality has a negative effect on income growth.
“I N C L U S I V E G R O W T H”
Economics
& Markets
Asset
Development
Productivity
Innovation
Inclusiveness
Constructive
Government
Sustainability
7
Amartya Sen:
“… human beings
are not merely
the means of
production, but
also the ends
of the
exercise.”
Political
Social
Economic
Top 100 Metros Share of U.S. Total
92%
Service Exports
Graduate Degrees
Wind + Solar Energy Employment
Population
79%
Venture Capital Funding
Gross Product
66%
78%
Airline Boardings
76%
U.S. Air Cargo Weight
75%
Patents
73%
75%
94%
Sources: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, FAA, BLS, NIH, NSF, and BEA data; Brookings, ExportNation, 2010 (2008 data); Forthcoming research from Brookings and Battelle
Source: Brookings Institution
Why Metros?
Economic Geography and Place-Based Development
The Goal is Economic Growth
Economic Growth Flows from Market Activity
Major Market Systems Operate at the Metro Level
Improving Metro Economic Performance Entails Customized Analysis and Deliberate
Activity
Cities Are the Critical Core of Metros
Hub Functions of Cities
Air Transportation
Communication
Insurance Carriers
Depository institutions
Health Services
Legal Services
Educational services
Museums, botanical,…
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Suburban % of total MSA employment
City % of total MSA employment
Wages Move in Tandem
60,000
Correlation = 0.77, significant
50,000
Suburbs
0%
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
City
40,000
50,000
60,000
Neighborhoods are Nested in Larger Systems
Which Drive the Flows of People and Capital
Neighborhoods arise from the interaction of regional economic,
social and political systems with characteristics of place.
What Drives Inclusive and
Sustainable Economic Growth?
Local (Regional) Enabling Environment
(Government regulation, taxation and public goods, including
particularly infrastructure and education; civic institutions;
qualities of place, including the natural environment; etc.)
Inputs to
Production
(Human capital; real estate;
capital; natural and
knowledge resources; etc.)
Transformative
Systems
(Market processes – housing,
labor, business; production
dynamics – clusters, value
chains, etc.; innovation
dynamics - knowledge
creation, networks,
commercialization,
entrepreneurship, etc.)
Macro/Global Context & Trends
Economic Outputs
(Businesses – gross regional
product, profits; households
– wages, other income, etc.)
Local (Regional) Enabling Environment
(Government regulation, taxation and public goods, including
particularly infrastructure and education; civic institutions;
qualities of place, including the natural environment; etc.)
Inputs to
Production
(Human capital; real estate;
capital; natural and
knowledge resources; etc.)
Transformative
Systems
(Market processes – housing,
labor, business; production
dynamics – clusters, value
chains, etc.; innovation
dynamics - knowledge
creation, networks,
commercialization,
entrepreneurship, etc.)
Economic Outputs
(Businesses – gross regional
product, profits; households
– wages, other income, etc.)
The Knowledge Economy
Gross Domestic Product
% Growth over last 50 years
Increased Value of Knowledge
Factors…
•High skilled labor force
% Change
•Intellectual property
•Product innovation; flexible
customization
•Customer networks
Lead to New Drivers of
Productivity which Favor Cities
•Dense knowledge networks
•Functional specialization
•Innovative capacity
Source: Brookings Institution
Portland
Exports
2002-2008
make
ranks
GMP
3rdupinGrowth
25%
exports
of =
Portland’s
(as 144.5%
% of GMP)
GMP
Global GDP 2010
21.4%
BIC Countries
20.2%
US
Global GDP 2015
25.8%
BIC Countries
18.3%
US
Source: Brookings Institution
Demand for clean energy
generation
Demand for products that reduce
energy consumption
Demand for products that reduce
pollution
Source: Brookings Institution
Portland is the
11.3%
of
Portland
ranks
th
24 least
th
Portlanders
live
17 in income
segregated
inequality
poverty
metro
Source: Brookings Institution
These Five Key
Leverage Points Take
Us from Theory to
Practice
Increase
Spatial
Efficiency
Enhance
Regional
Concentrations
Deploy
Human Capital
Aligned with
Job Pools
Leverage Points
Develop
InnovationEnabling
Infrastructure
Create Effective
Public & Civic
Culture &
Institutions
Portland Plan Clusters
Athletic and
Outdoor Industry
Cleantech
Software
Advanced
Manufacturing
Cluster Map Source: Bo Heiden, Strategic Uses of the Global Patent System
Enhance
Regional
Concentrations:
Industries,
Occupations
and Functions
Portland has the
19th most educated
population,
1/3 have at least a
bachelor’s degree
Deploy High Human
Capital Aligned
with Job Pools
Develop
InnovationEnabling
Infrastructure
19th
most
56th inhigh
24.1%
impact
firms –
business
16.7
patents
establishment
7.5
mid-size
churn; 22.3%
per
10,000
births
andper
firm
births
firm births and
employees
deaths
as
%
of
10,000
deaths
as % of
total
employees
total
Image based on material from Land O’ Lakes Inc.
Research
Partners
R&D
Finance
Market
Research
Innovation
Ecosystem
Marketing
Manufacturing
Housing Costs as
Percent of Income
Housing + Transportation
Costs as Percent of Income
Increase
Spatial
Efficiency
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology
rd in travel
Portland
6.4%
24% of
ofjobs
ranks
Portlanders
are
63within
average
3 miles;
to travel
work
29%using
time
of jobs
to
public
work
are
th
82%Portland
of Portlanders
ranks 24
livein
within
trafficurbanized
congestion
areas
th
more
transit,
thanputting
10atmiles
25.3
Portland
away
minutes
from
in 11cityplace.
center
Create Effective Public &
Civic Culture & Institutions
Portland
Portlandranks
has
th in
37
.77
special
most
governments,
district
governments
with 0.3
governments
per 10,000
people,
per 10,000
putting
it inpeople
63rd place
A Dynamic Economy
Source: Newsweek, Manyika, Lund and Auguste, “From the Ashes,” 8.16.2010
The economy is changing rapidly.
A Dynamic Economy
Success depends on open, adaptive, networked
governance.
Summary: Implications for
Practice
 Cities are the Solution
 High Road Development
 Intentionality
 New Governance
 Metropolitan Business Plans
Metropolitan Business Plans:
A New Way of Doing Business
 Grounded in Economics and Business:
comprehensive, integrated growth
strategies based on unique regional
strengths
 Gets the Job Done: not just a plan;
cross-sector institutional capacity
critical to regional performance
 Continuous implementation,
monitoring, adaptation and further
strategy development
Demonstrate better ways to invest in metros to strengthen
national economy; develop new federal policies and programs.
Source: Brookings Institution
Why “Metropolitan Business
Planning”?
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
TRADITIONAL BUSINESS PLANNING
Vision for the Regional Economy
Business Mission & Vision
Status of Economy: Assets,
Opportunities, Challenges
Market Analysis
Goal-Setting & Strategy Identification
Analysis of Strategic Alternatives & Risks
Identification of Policies, Programs, Products
& Interventions
Development of Products & Services
Operational Planning for Implementation
Operational & Management Planning
Identification of Funding Needs
and Sources
Forecasting & Financial Planning
Definition of Outcome Measures & Targets
Target-Setting & Performance Tracking
The steps to analyzing and improving a regional economy lend
themselves to the proven discipline of business planning.
Source: Brookings Institution
Northeast
Ohio
Puget Sound
Source: Brookings Institution
Minneapolis-St. Paul
A New Economic Federalism
HUD
Section 8
Dept. of
Labor
Workforce
Inv. Act
Develop
and Deploy
Information
Resources
Affordable
Housing
Increase
Spatial
Efficiency
Small
Business
Admin.
Loans
Dept of
Commerce
Int’l. Trade
Admin.
Dept. of
Transpo.
SAFETEA-LU
Programs
Enhance
Regional
Concentrations
Deploy
Human Capital
Aligned with
Job Pools
Develop
Create Effective
Small
InnovationPublic & CivicExport
Workforce Enabling
Culture &
TrainingInfrastructure Business Institutions
Strategy
Assistance
Comprehensive Metropolitan Strategy
Upgrading
Roads and
Rail
A New Economic Federalism
Integrated Federal Investment
HUD
Section 8
Dept. of
Labor
Workforce
Act8
HUDInv.
Section
Department of
Commerce
Small
International Trade
Business
Administration
Admin.
Loans
White
House
Office of Urban
Affairs
Develop
and Deploy
Information
Resources
Dept of
Commerce
Int’l.
Tradeof
Department
Transportation
Admin.
SAFETEA-LU
Dept. of
Transpo.
SAFETEA-LU
Programs
Programs
Cross-Agency Regional Teams
Dept. of Labor
Small Business
Pooled
and Flexible Funding
Administration Loans
Workforce Inv. Act
Increase
Enhance
Support
for Regional Capacity
Building
Spatial
Regional
Efficiency
Concentrations
“New
Federalism” Partnership
Deploy
Human Capital
Aligned with
Job Pools
Develop
InnovationEnabling
Infrastructure
Create Effective
Public & Civic
Culture &
Institutions
Comprehensive Metropolitan Strategy
WE’RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER
“We are tied together in the single garment of destiny,
caught in an inescapable network of mutuality.“
Photo from the Seattle Times
ROBERT WEISSBOURD, RW VENTURES, LLC