Transcript 1. The key position of Automotive Industry in Iran`s Economy

Iran’s Automotive Industry:
Opportunities & Challenges ahead
Bahare Oryani
May 2016
4.
Content
1. The key position of Automotive Industry in Iran’s Economy
(Economic Performance Indices)
2. Iran’s Automotive Market Structure
3. Opportunities and challenges ahead
1. The key position of Automotive
Industry in Iran’s Economy
(Economic Performance Indices)
1. The key position of Automotive Industry in Iran’s Economy
Auto industry can be regarded as one of the key industries
in Iran’s economy as:
 It contributes to 13 percent of the total value added in
the industrial sector (2011 statistics);
 it provides job for 12 percent of industrial labor force,
ranking as the 3rd job generating industry;
Despite pressures of sanctions, economic recession, drastic
reduction of investment and having lost 50% of its share in the
industry in recent years, the automotive sector has retained its
significant position as the third highest job-creating industry in
the country.
Strong Backward linkages
Iran’s auto industry has strong
backward linkages with the
other economic sectors. It is
ranked as the 2th industry in
terms of backward linkages
(out of 23 manufacturing
industries).
Therefore:
The automotive industry can be regarded as one
of the key industrial growth movers in Iran
Production of Iran’s Auto Industry (1000 Units)
Economic
Sanctions had a
serious effect on
automotive
industry,
especially at the
time when the
industry was
ready for major
expansion.
Tightening of sanctions in
2012 and 2013
Source: Ministry of Industry, Mines and trade
Capacity
utilization rate
(2012): 29%
Ratio of part production value in the automotive
industry production value
Increasing Share of Parts in the Auto Industry Production Value (%)
Source: Statistical Center of Iran
Improvement of the local content in Iran’s automotive industry from
20.6% to 36.3%, despite economic sanction pressures.
International Cooperation in auto parts
Source: http://www.iapma.ir/
Increasing share of joint venture and technology transfers has resulted in the
improvement of local content
2. Iran’s Automotive Market
Structure
 Regarding
passenger cars, there
are 6 auto maker
companies, 2 of which
account for 90.5
percent share of the
Auto market.
Passenger Cars (2014)
Commercial Vehicles (2014)
Source: Calculations based on the data form Ministry of
Industry, Mine and Trade
 Iran Khodro Disel, Sipa Disel and Bahman
Group account for 95.3 percent the total
domestic production in commercial vehicles
and the remaining 4.7 percent is belong to 13
companies
Auto Part Production in Iran
Dispersion of auto part clusters in Iran
Number of auto part
manufacturers in supply
chain: 1200
 Number of Clusters: 7
 Working Capital: 4.5
billion $
 Sales (2015): 7 billion $
 Share of industrial value
added: 9%
 Investment: 3 billion $
Source: http://www.iapma.ir/
International Cooperation in automotive (2014)
 Dominance of cooperation in the form of license (in passenger and commercial
vehicles),
 lack of joint venture contracts in the commercial vehicle, against 14 case in the
passenger car
Combination of License contracts:
Passenger cars
Source: Calculations based on the data of ministry of industry, mine and trade
China ranks 1st as Iran’s most important partner. It contributes to 36 percent
license contracts in Iran with a local content ranging between 14-26 percent.
 Korea has the owns second largest share in Iran's international license
contracts (26 percent) with the local content ranging between 14-87%.
3. Opportunities and Challenges
ahead
3. Opportunities
 The strategic goals set for automotive industry in horizon 2025
a. Light vehicle and auto parts
 To produce at least 3 million units, 2 million for domestic market
and 1 million for export;
To produce at least 50% of light vehicles with local brands;
To have at least $25 bn worth of parts and components for
domestic cars supplied by local producers;
To have at least $6 bn worth of auto parts and components
(production lines and parts) exported by local producers
b. Commercial vehicle
To produce at least 120000 commercial vehicles, 90000 for
domestic market and 30000 for export
c. To increase GDP share of auto industry to at least 4%;
d. To increase the share of auto industry in the total value added
of the industrial sector to at least 20%.
3. Opportunities (cont)
Market Potentials and Proximity: Vast domestic market
with a population of 78.1 Million growing steadily as well as
quick access to neighboring markets with approximately 300
million inhabitants.
 Effective demand in domestic Auto market:
 Increase in future demand due to young population of
country (70 percent of population under 30 years old);
 Necessity to replace old cars (1.6 million auto with more
than 20 years old);
 Low level of auto ownership in Iran comparing to
Persian gulf countries
3. Opportunities (cont)
 Using
old platform and being ready to use new
platforms in order to manufacture modern autos
according to costumer taste
 Availability of required conditions for entrance of
Non Chinese companies in post-sanction period to
supply original parts. Under sanctions autos
imported as CKD or domestic cars produced by
using Chinese parts.
Higher custom duties on CBU and thus increase in
final cost that leads to increase in tendency for CKD
import and CKD parts
3. Challenges
 large number of auto part manufacturer
without economic scale and access to tier1.
 Concentrated
market
structure
for
automotive market
 Complicated Private – Public Structures in
many companies (for example 80 percent of
Iran khodro’s stocks belongs to 14 companies
with private – public stockholders).
 Price regulation made by competition council
Therefore:
Through international cooperation in automotive
industry, it is expected:
 Balanced development of automotive industry value
chains from auto part production to after sale services,
 Enhanced cooperation with leading global companies
in the form of joint venture (not just license) and
emphasis on export
 increase depth of local content. local content
requirements in new joint venture contract increase to
40% (Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade)
 Finally, Enhanced outward orientation in auto
industry and its participation in Global Value Chains
(GVC’s).
Thanks for your attention