Transcript Study on the G20`s Transition from the Perspective of China`s

Study on the G20’s Transition from the
Perspective of China’s Strategy in Global
Economic Governance
Sun Wei
2016.08.11
Contents
I
Introduction
II
Literature Review
III
The G20 and its Transition
IV
China’s
Expectationsand
and Sino-Korea
Sino-Korea Cooperation
China’s
Expectation
Cooperation
V
Conclusion
2
G20’s Economic Quota
GDP Per capita
Ranking
in
2015
94.0%
93.0%
92.0%
89.0%
4
Germany
4
19
88.0%
5
France
5
21
87.0%
6
Great Britain
6
14
86.0%
7
Brazil
7
68
8
India
8
141
9
Russia
9
71
10
Italy
10
27
11
Canada
11
15
12
Australia
12
7
13
South Korea
14
29
14
Mexico
15
63
15
Indonesia
16
118
16
Turkey
17
64
17
Saudi Arabia
19
38
18
Argentina
21
53
19
South Africa
28
84
20
EU
88.7%
89.2%
2015年
25
2014年
3
2013年
Japan
2012年
3
2011年
90.0%
2010年
73
2009年
2
2008年
China
2007年
2
2006年
91.0%
2005年
5
2004年
1
2003年
United States
2002年
1
/
93.4%
2001年
GDP
Ranking
in 2015
2000年
G20 member
States
1999年
No.
G20/World
/
3
I. Introduction
Q1
Q2
Q3
What are the potential directions of the
G20’s transition?
What is China’s expectation on the
G20’s transition and why?
How China and South Korea should
cooperate in the G20?
4
II. Literature Review
Prospects of the G20’s Transition
Paths of the G20’s Transition
Alternative Solutions before the G20’s Transition
5
1. Prospects of the G20’s Transition
G20’s Transition
Pro
*A permanent institution.
*An effective steering
committee for the world
economy.
*A more comprehensive
coordination platform of
global governance oriented.
Con
* G20’s future is G7.
*Obstacles: U.S. doesn’t
agree; other international
organizations don’t agree;
binding commitments are
not necessary.
2. Paths of the G20’s Transition
Pro
Con
•a small secretariat can bring
effective regulation.
•Secretariat can make G20
more formal and stable .
•Secretariat will reduce the
authority of leaders.
• Cooperation between the
G20 and other organizations
are already effective.
• not a good timing.
7
3. Alternative Solutions before the G20’s Transition
*Deepen cooperation between the G20 and other
international organizations
*Establishment of a G20 “non-secretariat”
*Launch a dialog partnership institution among regions
*Improve the mechanism of Council Chairperson and
Special Committees
*Enrich the function of coordinators
8
III. The G20 and its Transition
From G7 to G20 and G20 Summit
Hidden Troubles of the G20
Potential Directions of the G20’s future Transition
9
1. From G7 to G20 and G20 Summit
1976
1999
2008
2016
10
2. Hidden Troubles of the G20
No.1
Difficulties in the
Cooperation
between members
of the G20 rise up
No.2
Lack of
effectiveness is
another query of
the G20
No.3
The
representativeness
is also queried if
the authority
declines
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G20’s Representativeness Distribution
Africa Oceania
5%
5%
EU
4
GCC
1
OECD
10
South
Amrica
10%
Asia
35%
North Amrica
15%
MIKTA
5
Europe
30%
BRICS
5
G20’s Representativeness
Distribution in States’ Groups
G20’s Representativeness
Distribution on Continents
Notes: EU is taken as one member.
12
3.Potential Directions of the G20’s Transition
1
The Premium Consultation and Coordination Institution
for Global Economic Governance
2
The Consultation and Coordination Institution for
Global Development
3
The Consultation and Coordination Institution for
Political, Security and Social issues
13
IV. China’s Expectation and Sino-Korea
Cooperation
The G20 is the hub of “Stock Reform” and
“ Incremental Updating” of China
China’s Expectation on the G20’s Transition
Tips on Sino-Korean Cooperation in the G20
14
1. G20 is the hub of “Stock Reform” and “Incremental
Updating” of China
G20
Stock Reform
is to push the
reform of global
economic
governance from
the stock
perspective
Incremental
Updating
is to push the
global economic
governance
through an
incremental path
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2.China’s Expectation on the G20’s Transition:
From Hangzhou Summit
Two
Directions
A. Crisis-response
mechanism to
long-term
governance
institution;
B. short-term
policy oriented to
mid-to-long term
policy oriented
Three
Principles
A. Economic
Issues Priority
B. Development
Issues insisting
C. Mid-to-Long
term Issues
Three
Orientations
A. Action-oriented
B. Out-reaching
C. WorldEmbracing
Hub
A. Stock Reform
items
B. Incremental
Updating items
16
Figure 1:Growth Rate of Global Economy (2007-2015)
5.0%
4.0%
4.1%
3.9%
3.1%
2.8%
3.0%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
2012
2013
2014
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-1.0%
-2.0%
-2.1%
-3.0%
Growth Rate
Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF (April. 2016)
17
2015
Table 1 Comparison of IMF’s Prediction on Global Economic
Growth Rate between January and June
Growth Rate in 2016-2017
Economies
Comparison with Prediction
in January
2016
2017
2016
2017
US
2.2%
2.5%
↓0.4%
↓0.1%
Euro Zone
1.5%
1.4%
↓0.2%
↓0.3%
Japan
0.5%
-0.1%
↓0.5%
↓0.4%
China
6.5%
6.2%
↑0.2%
↑0.2%
India
7.5%
7.5%
Even
Even
Russia
-1.8%
1.0%
↓0.8%
Even
World
3.1%
3.4%
↓0.3%
↓0.2%
Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF (July. 2016)
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Table 2 World Bank’s Prediction on Growth Rate of
Major Economies unit: %
Economies
2013y 2014y
2015y
2016y
2017y
2018y
(estimated) (predicted) (predicted) (predicted)
World
Developed
Economies
2.4
1.1
2.6
1.7
2.4
1.8
2.4
1.7
2.8
1.9
3.0
1.9
U.S.
Euro Zone
1.5
-0.3
2.4
0.9
2.4
1.6
1.9
1.6
2.2
1.6
2.1
1.5
Japan
Emerging
Economies
1.4
4.7
-0.1
4.2
1.6
3.4
0.5
3.5
0.5
4.4
0.7
4.7
China
7.7
7.3
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.3
Source: Global Economic Prospects, World Bank (June. 2016)
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2.China’s Expectation on the G20’s Transition:
From Hangzhou Summit
Two
Directions
A. Crisis-response
mechanism to
long-term
governance
institution;
B. short-term
policy oriented to
mid-to-long term
policy oriented
Three
Principles
A. Economic
Issues Priority
B. Development
Issues
C. Mid-to-Long
term Issues
Three
Orientations
A. Action-oriented
B. Out-reaching
C. WorldEmbracing
Hub
A. Stock Reform
items (10)
B. Incremental
Updating items
(15)
20
Table 3 Ten Major Expected Outcomes of G20 Hangzhou Summit
1. work out a blueprint for innovation-driven growth.
2.adopt an action plan for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development
3.identify priority areas and set up guiding principles as well as an indicator
system for structural reforms
4. adopt a global trade growth strategy
5. lay out the guiding principles for global investment policies
6. deepen reform of the international financial architecture
7. launch three-pronged anti-corruption cooperation
8.initiate cooperation to support industrialization of Africa and least developed
countries (LDCs) in the world
9. formulate an entrepreneurship action plan
10. push for early entry-into-force of the Paris Agreement on climate change
Source：“100 days countdown to the G20 Hangzhou Summit: Ten Expected Outcomes”
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Table 4 Theme and Key Agenda Items of Hangzhou Summit
in 2016
No.
I
Theme
Breaking a New Path for
Growth
No.
1
2
3
II
More Effective and
Efficient Global Economic
and Financial Governance
III
Robust International Trade
and Investment
IV
Inclusive and
Interconnected
Development
Key Agenda Items
Maintaining the Momentum of World Economic recovery
Lifting Mid-to-Long term Growth Potential
Improving International Financial Architecture to Meet Future Challenges
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Continuing Financial Sector Reforms
Developing Green Finance
Improving International Tax Regime
Implement Consensus on Anti-corruption
Reinforcing trade and investment Cooperation Mechanism
Supporting the Multilateral Trade System
Promoting Global trade growth
Promoting Inclusive and Integrated Global Value Chains
13
14
15
16
Implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable development
Optimizing G20’s Development Cooperation agenda
Building Infrastructure and Connectivity
17
18
19
20
21
Increasing Employment
Improving Food security and Nutrition
Mobilizing Climate Finance
Eradicating Poverty
Enhancing Cooperation and Coordination on Global Investment Policy
Promoting Accessible, Affordable and Sustainable Energy Supply
Supporting Industrialization in African and other Developing countries
22
2.China’s Expectation on the G20’s Transition:
From Hangzhou Summit
Two
Directions
A. Crisis-response
mechanism to
long-term
governance
institution;
B. short-term
policy oriented to
mid-to-long term
policy oriented
Three
Principles
Three
Orientations
A. Economic
Issues Priority
B. Development
Issues
C. Mid-to-Long
term Issues
A. Action-oriented
B. Out-reaching
C. WorldEmbracing
23
Hub
A. Stock Reform
items (10)
B. Incremental
Updating items
(15)
3.Tips for Sino-Korea Cooperation in the G20
Tip1
Proper handle strategic and security
conflicts, maintain the good momentum
of bilateral economic relations
Tip2
Integrating “Belt and Road” initiative
and “Eurasia Initiative” into the G20
Framework
Tip3
Leading the Cooperation and
Coordination between BRICS and
MIKTA
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V. Conclusion
Transit or not, it is not a question for the G20 any more.
Three potential directions of the G20’s transition.
China is the supporter of the first two directions of the
G20’s transition, but should be cautious for the third.
South Korea is no doubt an important strategic partner of
China in the G20 if only both can keep the good
momentum of bilateral relations.
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