Transcript ILD status – IAF congress 2015-10-12 to 16-rev

ACHIEVING
BREAKTHROUGH
STATUS OF THE INTERNATIONAL LUNAR DECADE
INTERNATIONAL ASTRONAUTICAL FEDERATION CONGRESS
12-16 OCTOBER 2015
TOPICS
•
•
Vision
•
What is ILD
•
Why a decade. Why start in 2017?
•
Necessity of international collaboration
•
2030 and beyond
Evolution of an idea and status
•
Planetary Society proposal
•
Role of ILEWG
•
Engaging international collaboration
•
Funding and alternative scenarios
•
No ILD –significant International collaboration cannot be marshalled
•
ILD without COPUOS / UN endorsement – essentially initiative of ILEWEG and ISECG
•
ILD with UN endorsement but without significant financing and involvement by US and other major space agencies
•
ILD funded comparable to ISS - $150 billion in 2010 US dollars
•
ILD funded to achieve breakthrough to self-sustaining space economy beyond Earth orbit.
ILD VISION
Achieve breakthrough
to sustainable operations in space.
The capacity to create
wealth in space is a
necessary precondition for
sustainable human presence
in space.
LUNAR BREAKTHROUGH
Before
After
• No property rights on Moon
• Mining and other property rights agreed to
• Absence of agreement on claims to ownership or
governance of commerce
• Governance mechanism in place to manage
commerce and related activities on the Moon
• Resources not mapped
• Resources mapped and process developed to
assign and regulate exploitation rights
• Lack of Technologies for ISRU
• Lack of infrastructure for communications,
transport, logistics, energy
• Absence of financing instruments for lunar
development
• Infrastructure under development to meet long
term needs to 2050 and beyond
• Growing number and kinds of financing
instruments to address diverse lunar development
needs
WHAT MARKS THE BREAKTHROUGH?
• Good business environment – predictable government policy,
mining rights and other forms of property rights necessary to
conduct business
• Manageable level of risk
• Investments in lunar projects can generate predictable cashflow
• Returns on investment attract increasing investments
We will know the breakthrough has taken place when
• Space projects can be funded from revenue generated in space
• ROI from space projects will be comparable or better than
terrestrial projects
• Missions to Mars carrying large 100+ teams can be economically
justified
ILD is a process to achieve the breakthrough
to wealth creation beyond Earth orbit.
• The key is industrial development of the Moon
• Smart money would not be chasing asteroids if business
was easier on the Moon
• ILD addresses barriers to lunar development
ILD IS A SYSTEMATIC PROGRAM TO OVERCOME
BARRIERS TO WEALTH CREATION IN SPACE
BARRIER
RESPONSE
No mining or property rights on Moon
Lunar resource base largely unknown
Develop property rights
Explore, identify and map resources
No infrastructure to support lunar
operations
Lack of technologies to process lunar
resources
Develop infrastructure
Lack of space manufacturing capacity
Develop required manufacturing
capacity
Uncertain financing for lunar
exploration & development
Develop financing mechanisms
Develop required technologies
WHEN?
The faster the better.
Because the result is lower cost and risk for Mars and all other
activities beyond LEO.
BY WHEN?
There is no known insurmountable barrier to achieving
breakthrough in a decade
Every barrier to lunar development can be overcome.
Needed:
 an agreed to plan to achieve breakthrough and
 commitment by participating states to implement the plan
ILD: A dynamic framework for international
collaboration to achieve breakthrough
Concurrent development of policies, technologies,
infrastructures, financing methods and public support
required for the emergence of a sustainable space economy
beyond Earth orbit.
WHAT ILD IS NOT
ILD is not central planning for
global space development.
ILD elements can largely be initiated and
managed through existing organizations.
ISECG, UNCOPUOS, COSPAR, G20 process,
NASA and other national space agencies are
effective. ILD is about coordination and
working together to achieve more with
available resources
ILD is not a scheme to expand
government spending on space.
ILD is intended to engage private business
through public – private partnerships and
where possible private investment
ILD ELEMENTS
ELEMENT
PROCESS
Develop international agreement on property
rights and governance of commercial activity
on the Moon and in cislunar space
No agreed to process. UN COPUOS??
Identify and map location, quality and extent
of lunar resources
Underway with some coordination via ILEWG
Develop enabling technologies to process lunar Preliminary, largely hypothetical research.
resources, energy systems, space
Need process to define technical
manufacturing
requirements, call for development
Develop infrastructure to support lunar
operations. Start with ISS as part of the plan.
Need long range plan that identifies
infrastructure requirements in cislunar space,
lunar surface
Human presence requirements
Shelter, food, atmosphere, water, low gravity
effects, radiation. Use ISS as a testbed.
Financing for lunar development
G20, sovereign wealth funds, private-public
partnerships, venture capital, agency budgets
WHY A DECADE?
• Breakthrough can be achieved in a decade – by 2030
• A decade is more than the sum of ten years. A decade is a span of time in
which large scale projects can be brought to fruition. Activities in space are
inherently long term.
• A decade is longer than the 2 terms of an American president
• Technologies advance very rapidly. Milestones beyond a decade, even in
space, become iffy.
• But planning should not stop at a decade. What comes after ILD??
WHY NOW? WHY START IN 2017?
• 2017 marks 60 years since IGY and the dawn of the space age.
• More importantly – we, humankind, now have the technical, financial
and organizational capacity to make the breakthrough to permanent
human presence in space.
China’s GDP already exceeds US GDP during the construction of ISS, India is
approaching US GDP of the 1990-2010 period. The EU exceeds US GDP. Other
nations are advancing rapidly. Global GDP in 2015 is nearly $80 trillion. Achieving
breakthrough is affordable.
• Collaboration in space during the Cold War left a positive legacy.
• Building large-scale collaboration in space now may have a disproportionate
unifying impact countering powerful forces disrupting world order.
Global crises can destroy the capacity for joint
action.
If we don’t achieve breakthrough now, we
may never do it…
IMPACT OF ILD
Agreement to proceed with ILD by US, EU, China, India, Japan,
Russia, others will signal a commitment to sustainable human
presence in space.
• Immediate bump in market cap of space businesses
• Surge in business formation of space businesses
• Inflow of investment into space related venture funds
WHAT WILL BREAKTHROUGH COST?
$150 billion over a decade? $1.5 trillion? More?
The ISS has cost $150 billion – much of it from the US.
Now much more bang for the buck than in 1990s.
Future –
• 10 fold reduction of launch costs
• more than 10 fold improvement in performance and capabilities
• Savings from collaboration and coordination with pooled resources
COST OF ILD
• What missions, projects and tasks must be in the shortest path to
achieve breakthrough to a sustainable space economy?
• Cost out the steps
• Assess financing options
• Reiterate until a financeable solutions becomes apparent
NECESSITY OF INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION
• Policy issues can only be resolved in an international context
• Level of knowledge required beyond capacity of any country
• Level of investment required calls for public-private partnership
with international partners
HISTORY
• The Planetary Society first proposed an International Lunar Decade
in 2006 endorsed by COSPAR, ILEWG, IAF, and the Secure World
Foundation.
• Friedman February, 2007 presentation to COPUOS sought UN
endorsement
• Session attendees showed enthusiasm but no member state championed
ILD
• All missions and collaboration anticipated in ILD planning in 2006
completed
COPUOS
• UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is the UN body concerned
about space policy.
• COPUOS endorsement is necessary for UN sponsorship of ILD.
• David Dunlap of NSS is scheduled to make case for ILD to COPUOS, February
2016.
• If COPUOS endorses ILD in 2016, then UN General Assembly endorsement will
become possible
• Initiatives can only be proposed by member states not NGOs
• Decision by unanimous consent
• Plan – seek several member states to sponsor ILD proposal
ISECG
International Space Exploration Coordinating Group created in 2006 by 14 space agencies.
a voluntary, non-binding international coordination 11 mechanism through which individual
agencies may exchange information regarding 12 interests, objectives, and plans in space
exploration with the goal of strengthening both 13 individual exploration programs as well
as the collective effort.
Anticipated role in ILD
• General coordination of missions
• Planning of shared infrastructure in cislunar space / lunar surface
• Guidance regarding technology requirements
ENGAGING INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION
ILD
ISS
• Engaged NASA, Roscosmos, ESA,
JAX, Canada to build the largest
technological collaboration thus
far
• Cost - $150 billion, mainly US
• Engage all states with interest
and capabilities to make a
contribution. G20? COPUOS?
• Build on ISS and all previous
collaborations
• Cost shared by all participants
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
• No ILD –significant International collaboration cannot be marshalled
• ILD without COPUOS / UN endorsement – essentially initiative of ILEWEG and
ISECG
• ILD with UN endorsement but without significant financing and involvement
by US and or other major space agencies
• ILD funded comparable to ISS - $150 billion in 2010 US dollars
• «Moonrush» ILD funded to achieve breakthrough to self-sustaining space
economy beyond Earth orbit.
ILD2 FUNDED COMPARABLE TO ISS
• $150 billion (2010 USD)
• Include all G20 members plus major emerging economies such as
Nigeria
• Create opportunities for all other countries - Lunar Cubes, other
projects for small countries, small business and universities
• Address infrastructure in cislunar space
• Lay the foundations for industrial development post 2030
POTENTIAL RESULTS
ISS integrated with lunar research and development
Policies developed that encourage private investment beyond Earth orbit,
primarily Moon and cislunar space.
• Property rights
• Dispute resolution mechanisms
• System for establishing mining claims
Key enabling technologies
Infrastructure to lower cost, increase reliability, reduced risks
The 21st Century unfolds as the century of space…
CAN WE AFFORD IT?
• The global economy will be a multiple of the US economy when
$150 billion was marshalled to build ISS.
• Private investment will comprise an increasing portion – if the
policy issues can be resolved.
RESOLUTION OF POLICY ISSUES
Three approaches:
• Moon Treaty – offers a defined, international process to develop an
«international regime» including property rights for industrial development of
the Moon.
• Private initiative - Establish law and practices through customary law. Begin
with processing asteroids, establish business practices, as these get accepted
over time they get the status of customary law.
• COMSAT type of entity chartered by US Congress – Lunar Development Corp
that engages international partners much as COMSAT led to INTELSAT
CONCLUSIONS
• The ILD provides a framework for concurrently addressing enabling technologies,
infrastructures, policies, financing and overall coordination for breakthrough to sustainable
operations in space.
• No single community or entity can resolve the range of issues that must be addressed. Some
issues could be addressed by the following:
• ISECG – key infrastructure linking low Earth orbit, cislunar space, lunar operations -- overall
roadmap
• ILEWG – overall coordination of lunar research operations
• COPUOS / UNOOSA – space policy, means to engage smaller space partners / support for national
level space celebrations, linkage with space advocacy groupss
• COSPAR, other research fora – reporting of research results, interacting with global scientific
community
• Financing issues – G20? Lunar Development Corporation? Lunar Development Fund?
International Lunar
Exploration Working
Group (ILEWG)
- [email protected]