Transcript Pakistan - ScholarWorks @ GSU

Pakistan: A GEOS Study
By Robert Barry
Broad GEOS Challenges in Pakistan
Poor Governance in Pakistan: Across the Board
“Corruption remains a substantial obstacle for
Pakistan where it is still perceived to be widespread
and systemic.”-Chêne, Marie (8 August 2008). "Overview of corruption in Pakistan". U4 Anti-Corruption
Resource Centre.
“Pakistan’s Rule of Law development has suffered from 38 years of military rule with only
short lived and intermittent experience with democratic governance. Since much of the law derives from
the British colonial system, it is seen by many as lacking legitimacy. There is also tension between the
inherited common law system and the Islamic law based on the Quran, especially in outlying provinces
and regions. Questions about legitimacy are compounded by the low level of efficiency, the prevalence
of delays, the inferior quality of legal training, corruption, and the perception that the court system is a
tool for the delay of justice, manipulated by rich and/or powerful interests in the society.” Blue, R., Hoffman, R., & Berg, L. US Agency for
International Development, (November, 2008). Pakistan rule of law assessment-final report. Retrieved from Management Systems International website:
http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADO130.pdf
Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan
Physical Security in Pakistan
“Islamist extremism and militancy has been a menace to Pakistani society
throughout the post-2001 period, becoming especially prevalent since
2007. Pakistan is the site of numerous armed insurgencies of various
scales that represent an increasingly severe threat to domestic, regional,
and perhaps global security…Al Qaeda forces that fled Afghanistan with
their Taliban supporters remain active in Pakistan and reportedly have
extensive, mutually supportive links with indigenous Pakistani terrorist
groups that conduct anti-Western and anti-India attacks.” Kronstadt, K. A. US
Department of State, Congressional Research Service. (2010).Pakistan: Current issues and developments(41307).
Retrieved from CRS website: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/145133.pdf
Signs of recovery from Global Recession
“Reflecting some improvement in electricity supply
that facilitated increased industrial production,
growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of
Pakistan reached an estimated 4.1% in Fiscal Year
2014 (ended 30 June 2014), unexpectedly
accelerating from 3.7% in FY2013. Reform initiated
by the government helped improve economic
conditions during the year. Renewed support from
development partners and a $2 billion eurobond
issue, the first in 7 years, helped stabilize the
currency and rebuild foreign exchange reserves
from very low levels.” Pakistan: Economy. Asian Development Bank. (2014,
June 1). Retrieved December 1, 2014, from http://www.adb.org/countries/pakistan/economy
RCRI Economics
GDP Growth
“Headline inflation increased to an average of 8.6% in FY2014 from 7.4% in the
previous year, lower than the ADO 2014 forecast. Consumer price inflation was
volatile through the year because of food price spikes in the first half of 2014. In
response, the central bank kept monetary policy tight in FY2014, increasing the
policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points to 10%....Inflation is now expected to
average 8.2% in FY2015, slightly lower than FY2014. Security challenges, floods in
September 2014 in parts of the country, and political demonstrations pose
downside risks to the FY2015 forecast.” Pakistan: Economy. Asian Development Bank (2014, June 1). Retrieved December
1, 2014, from http://www.adb.org/countries/pakistan/economy
“According to a late 2009 World Bank report, Islamabad’s stabilization efforts since late 2008 have combined with lower world
commodities prices to reduce external imbalances, rebuild foreign exchange reserves, and reduce inflation. Yet “the
macroeconomic situation remains fragile and the medium-term outlook is uncertain,” with “uneven” progress on reforms and
“inadequate” measures to boost revenue and control public spending. 2008, Pakistan was seen to require substantial external
financing to stabilize its economy. A subsequent IMF paper warns that economic reform does not command broad public
support, that the manufacturing sector has remained depressed, and that adverse security circumstances are harmful to
investor confidence. More recently, an IMF official offered that Pakistan’s economy was recovering from a financial crisis, even
as some reforms have been slow .“Kronstadt, K. A. US Department of State, Congressional Research Service. (June 1, 2010).Pakistan: Current issues and developments(41307). Retrieved from CRS website:
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/145133.pdf
Barriers to Investment in Pakistan
Benin, Norway, Russia, Pakistan,
Senegal
”Political events keep FDI flows and private investment low, which also
affects foreign reserves. An uncertain political environment undermines
investor confidence and depresses economic activity. The troubled
domestic energy sector continues to endure a long-due complex
inheritance on its circular debt which, contrary to the government’s plans,
might affect the magnitude of fiscal adjustment.” Pasha, M. (2014, April 9). Pakistan
development update: economy gradually improving. Retrieved from
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/04/09/pakistan-dvelopment-update-economy-gradually-improving
Pakistan’s Decaying Infrastructure
“The struggling power sector puts a significant damper on commerce and everyday activities,
causing factory shutdowns and rioting by mobs angry with price hikes and shortages. A 2009 survey
found that more than half of all Pakistanis go without power for at least eight hours per day. More
recently, shortfalls in electricity supply have led to unannounced outages of up to 20 hours per day
in parts of the country.” Kronstadt, K. A. US Department of State, Congressional Research Service. (June 1, 2010).Pakistan: Current issues and developments(41307).
Retrieved from CRS website: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/145133.pdf
Paying Taxes
“Tax collection is a serious issue in the Pakistani economy. In early
2010, the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan noted for a Karachi business
audience that, at 9%, Pakistan has one of the lowest tax-to-GDP
ratios in the world, and she urged the government to raise more
revenue from its own
citizens.” Kronstadt, K. A. US Department of State, Congressional Research Service. (June 1, 2010).Pakistan: Current
issues and developments(41307). Retrieved from CRS website: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/145133.pdf
Paying Taxes RCRI
South Asia’s Literacy Problem
Bangladesh, Cote D’Ivoire,
Mozambique, Nepal
Pakistan
India
“For the entire population, by 2015, Pakistan is expected to have a total literacy rate of 60 percent -- well
below the 71 percent mark for India, but similar to the 61 percent figure projected for Bangladesh, an
equally poor Muslim-dominated state. Overall, literacy rates have climbed steadily across South Asia over
the past few decades – consider that as recently as 1998, less than half (about 43.9 percent) of all
Pakistanis were literate, while in 1981, a little more than one-quarter of the populace could read and
write.” Ghosh, P. (2014, March 31). Gordon brown’s school days: Actually, pakistan’s literacy rate has been improving, with one glittering model of excellence. International Business Times.
Retrieved from http://www.ibtimes.com/gordon-browns-school-days-actually-pakistans-literacy-rate-has-been-improving-one-glittering-model
Pakistan’s Gender Gap
“Pakistan has for decades grossly underinvested in education, and in particular, girls’ education.
Education spending is mired at roughly 1 percent of GDP, and in this environment of resource
constraints, girls tend to be short-changed. Overall literacy is only 44 percent while adult female literacy
is less than 30 percent. Moreover, the gap between male and female literacy rates has widened. In 1975,
the literacy gap between men and women in Pakistan was 25 points (11 percent literacy for women vs.
36 percent literacy for men). By 2001, that gap had inched upward to 29 points (29 percent literacy for
women versus 58 percent for men).”
Coleman, I. (2004, Jul). Gender Disparities, Economic Growth and Islamization in Pakistan. Retrieved Dec, 2014. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/gender-disparitieseconomic-growth-islamization-pakistan/p7217
Infant Mortality Rate RCRI
“Health care in Pakistan is identified as one of the country’s most corrupt sectors, according to surveys by
Transparency International; general surveys suggest the majority of Pakistanis are unhappy with the health
services they are offered…. Pakistan has no national health insurance system and 78 percent of the population
pay health care expenses themselves. It is the only country in the world without a National Health Ministry.”
Challenges to improving health care in pakistan. (2013, May 17). Retrieved from http://www.irinnews.org/report/98055/challenges-to-improving-health-care-in-pakistan