Transcript Powerpoint om pengar

Karlstad Universitet
Makroekonomi VT2012
Pengar och det finansiella systemet
www.gu.s
e
Finansiella marknader
Aktier
Obligationer
Penningmarknadsinstrument
Låntagare
Företag
Hushåll
Offentlig
sektor
Långivare
Hushåll
Företag
Riksbanken
Kreditinstitut
Försäkringsbolag
Värdepappersbolag
www.gu.s
e
Betydelsen av finansiella
intermediärer
• Skapar likviditet
• Minimerar lånekostnader
• Riskspridning
• Fördelar lån till de mest gynnsamma
investeringarna
• Tjänar pengar på räntenettot => skillnaden på
utlånings- och inlåningsräntan.
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e
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 14
The Federal Reserve
and Monetary Policy
Global ekonomi, Kapitel 7,
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
4
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Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
13.1
WHAT IS MONEY? (cont’d)
Measuring Money in the U.S. Economy
● M1
The sum of currency in the hands of the public, demand
deposits, other checkable deposits, and traveler’s checks.
 FIGURE 13.1
Components of M1 for the
United States
Currency is the largest component
of M1, the most basic measure of
money.
Demand and other checkable
deposits are the next largest
components.
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13.1
WHAT IS MONEY? (cont’d)
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
Measuring Money in the U.S. Economy
● M2
M1 plus other assets, including deposits in savings and
loans accounts and money market mutual funds.
 FIGURE 13.2
Components of M2 in the
United States
Savings deposits are the
largest component of M2,
followed by M1, small time
deposits, and money market
mutual funds.
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13.2
HOW BANKS CREATE MONEY
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
A Bank’s Balance Sheet: Where the Money Comes from and
Where It Goes
● owners’ equity
The funds provided to a bank by its
owners.
 FIGURE 13.3
A Balance Sheet for a Bank
The figure shows a hypothetical balance sheet for a bank holding 10 percent in required
reserves, $200. Banks don’t earn interest on their reserves, so they will usually want to loan
out any excess of the amounts they are required to hold. This bank has loaned out all of its
excess reserves, $2,000.
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13.2
HOW BANKS CREATE MONEY
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
How Banks Create Money
● reserve ratio
The ratio of reserves to deposits.
FIGURE 13.4
Process of Deposit Creation: Changes
in Balance Sheets
The figure shows how an initial deposit of
$1,000 can expand the money supply.
The first three banks in the figure loaned
out all their excess reserves and the
borrowers deposited the full sum of their
loans. In the real world, though, people
hold part of their loans as cash and banks
don’t necessarily loan out every last dime
of their excess reserves. Consequently, a
smaller amount of money will be created
than what’s shown here.
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13.2
HOW BANKS CREATE MONEY
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
How the Money Multiplier Works
● money multiplier
The ratio of the increase in total
checking account deposits to an
initial cash deposit.
How the Money Multiplier Works in Reverse
The money multiplier working in reverse decreases the money supply.
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C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
APPLICATION
2
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
►FIGURE 13.5
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
6/e.
THE GROWTH IN EXCESS RESERVES
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS #2: Why have banks recently started to
hold vast amounts of excess reserves?
In response to the financial
crisis of 2008, the Fed
injected large amounts of
reserves into the system and
began paying interest on
reserves in October.
Required and total Reserves
of Banks
Until September of 2008,
banks held few excess
reserves so total reserves (in
red) were very close to
required reserves (in purple).
As a result, excess reserves
rose and total reserves now
exceed required reserves
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14.1
THE MONEY MARKET
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
• money market
The market for money in which the
amount supplied and the amount
demanded meet to determine the
nominal interest rate.
The Demand for Money
INTEREST RATES AFFECT MONEY DEMAND
• transaction demand for money
The demand for money based on
the desire to facilitate transactions.
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Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
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C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
P R I N C I P L E O F O P P O RT U N I T Y C O S T
The opportunity cost of something is what you sacrifice to get it.
 FIGURE 14.1
Demand for Money
As interest rates increase
from r0 to r1, the quantity of
money demanded falls from
M0 to M1.
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Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
14.1
THE MONEY MARKET
The Demand for Money
THE PRICE LEVEL AND GDP AFFECT MONEY DEMAND
REAL-NOMINAL PRINCIPLE
What matters to people is the real value of money or income— its purchasing
power—not the face value of money or income.
 FIGURE 14.2
Shifting the
Demand for Money
Changes in prices
and real GDP shift
the demand for
money.
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Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
14.2
HOW THE FEDERAL RESERVE CAN
CHANGE THE MONEY SUPPLY
Open Market Operations
• open market operations
The purchase or sale of U.S.
government securities by the Fed.
• open market purchases
The Fed’s purchase of government
bonds from the private sector.
• open market sales
The Fed’s sale of government
bonds to the private sector.
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Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
14.2
HOW THE FEDERAL RESERVE CAN
CHANGE THE MONEY SUPPLY
Other Tools of the Fed
CHANGING RESERVE REQUIREMENTS
If the Fed wishes to increase the supply of money, it can reduce banks’ reserve
requirements so they have more money to loan out.
CHANGING THE DISCOUNT RATE
• discount rate
The interest rate at which banks
can borrow from the Fed.
• federal funds market
The market in which banks borrow
and lend reserves to and from one
another.
• federal funds rate
The interest rate on reserves
that banks lend each other.
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14.3
HOW INTEREST RATES ARE
DETERMINED: COMBINING THE
DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF MONEY
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
 FIGURE 14.3
Equilibrium in the
Money Market
Equilibrium in the money
market occurs at an
interest rate of r*, at
which the quantity of
money demanded equals
the quantity of money
supplied.
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16 of 28
14.3
HOW INTEREST RATES ARE
DETERMINED: COMBINING THE
DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF MONEY
 FIGURE 14.4
Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
Changes in the supply of money will change interest rates.
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
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Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
14.3
HOW INTEREST RATES ARE
DETERMINED: COMBINING THE
DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF MONEY
Interest Rates and Bond Prices
HOW OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS DIRECTLY AFFECT
BOND PRICES
Bond prices rise as interest rates fall.
GOOD NEWS FOR THE ECONOMY IS BAD NEWS FOR
BOND PRICES
Increased money demand will increase interest rates.
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O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
14.5
MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES
FOR THE FED
Lags in Monetary Policy
Inside lags are the time it takes for policymakers to recognize and
implement policy changes. Outside lags are the time it
takes for policy to actually work.
Influencing Market Expectations: From the Federal
Funds Rate to Interest Rates on Long-Term Bonds
It is important to recognize that the Fed directly controls only very
short-term interest rates in the economy, not long-term interest rates.
For the Fed to control investment spending, it must also somehow
influence long-term rates. It can do this indirectly by influencing shortterm rates.
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19 of 28
Riksbankens styrning av
dagslåneräntan
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
Dagslåneräntan, %
Utlåningsränta (taket)
(2,75%)
Finjusteringar
+/- 10 räntepunkter
Banker placerar hos Riksbanken
(1,25%)
Reporäntan (2,00%)
Banker lånar av Riksbanken
Bankers låne- eller
placeringsbehov
hos riksbanken
Inlåningsränta (golvet)
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20 of 28
Repurchase agreement
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
Antag att riksbanken vill tillföra likviditet till
bankväsendet.
Riksbanken köper statsobligationer från
affärsbankerna för 100 miljoner kronor, med
villkor att bankerna köper tillbaks dessa
obligationer efter en vecka till priset av 100,1
miljoner SEK.
Effektiva årsräntan blir 5,2%. Denna sk
reporäntan styr dagslåneräntan som styr de
korta räntorna.
21
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Effekter av en räntehöjning
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
Reporäntehöjning
Förväntningar om reporäntan
Inflationsförväntningar
Marknadsräntorna stiger
Lägre förväntad
lönsamhet hos företag
Svårare få krediter –
lägre investeringar
Starkare växelkurs
Minskad
konsumtion
Minskade
investeringar
Minskad
export –
ökad import
Lägre
importpriser
Minskad efterfrågan
Lägre inflation
KREDITKANALEN
RÄNTEKANALEN
VÄXELKURSKANALEN
22
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Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
APPLICATION
1
BEYOND PURCHASING TREASURY SECURITIES
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS #1: How has the Fed recently
expanded its role in financial markets??
•Traditionally, to expand the money supply, the Fed purchased treasury securities. It
credited the reserve accounts in banks and, in part, determined the money and credit
in the economy. The Fed did not intervene in security or credit markets.
•After the crisis of 2008, the Fed changed policy and expanded its involvement.
•The Fed increased its assets from less than $1 trillion to over $2 trillion.
•In 2010 the Fed held over $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities.
•Critics suggest the Fed has crossed a political threshold that may pose risks to its
long-term independence.
•The Fed has reduced its investments in many markets, but increased its holdings of
mortgage-backed securities and is still playing a direct role in the housing market.
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Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
14.5
MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES
FOR THE FED
Looking Ahead: From the Short Run to the Long Run
Monetary policy can affect output in the short run
when prices are largely fixed, but in the long run
changes in the money supply affect only the price
level and inflation.
In the long run, the Federal Reserve can only
indirectly control nominal interest rates, and it can’t
control real interest rates—the rate after inflation is
figured in.
In the next part of the book, we will explain how
output and prices change over time, and how the
economy makes the transition by itself from the
short to the long run regardless of what the Fed
does.
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16.4
INFLATION AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 16
The Dynamics of Inflation
and Unemployment
or
● quantity equation
The equation that links money, velocity,
prices, and real output. In symbols, we have
M × V = P × y.
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C H A P T E R 16
The Dynamics of Inflation
and Unemployment
16.4
INFLATION AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY
(cont’d)
 FIGURE 16.4
The Velocity of M2, 1959–2009
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16.4
INFLATION AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 16
The Dynamics of Inflation
and Unemployment
growth rate of money + growth rate of velocity
= growth rate of prices + growth rate of real output
● growth version of the quantity equation
An equation that links the growth rates of
money, velocity, prices, and real output.
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27 of 23
INFLATION
• Allmän höjning av genomsnittlig prisnivån
eller minskning av penningvärdet
• Mått på inflation: Konsumentprisindex
– Korg med konsumtionsvaror även
importerade
• Finns även PPI och BNP deflator
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e
INFLATION
• Hyperinflation, högre än 50% per
månad
• Moderat inflation, 4-20%
• Låg inflation, lägre än 4%.
• Motsats till inflation är deflation
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C H A P T E R 16
The Dynamics of Inflation
and Unemployment
APPLICATION
3
HYPERINFLATION IN ZIMBABWE
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS #3: What caused a severe
hyperinflation to emerge recently in Zimbabwe?
In June 2008, the consumer price index in Zimbabwe was 8 million percent higher
than it was a year before. A $12 lunch in local currency cost 1.1 trillion Zimbabwe
dollars.
What caused Zimbabwe to suffer from this crippling hyperinflation?
The simple answer is that the political and economic system began to self-destruct.
Zimbabwe has been ruled since 1980 by the dictator Robert Mugabe, whose
policies to intervene militarily in African conflicts and expropriate white-owned
farms had the cumulative effect of crippling the economy.
• As the economy deteriorated, tax revenues declined.
• Mugabe and his central bank simply resorted to printing new banknotes.
Result: Hyperinflation and further deterioration of the economy as the financial
system collapsed.
Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.
16-30
6.4
THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND THE
COST OF LIVING
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
and Inflation
● Consumer Price Index
A price index that measures the cost
of a fixed basket of goods chosen to
represent the consumption pattern of
a typical consumer.
The CPI index for a given year, say year K, is defined as
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31 of 29
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
CHAPTER 5
Measuring a Nation’s
Production and Income
6.4
THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND THE
COST OF LIVING
FIGURE 6.5
Components of the Consumer
Price Index (CPI)
Rent and food and beverages
make up 44 percent of the CPI
basket. The remainder consists
of other goods and services.
The CPI versus the Chain Index for GDP
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32 of 33
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment and
Inflation
6.5
INFLATION (cont’d)
Historical U.S. Inflation Rates
 FIGURE 6.7
U.S. Inflation Rate, 1950–2009, Based on
Chain-Weighted Price Index
Inflation reached its highest peaks in the
postwar era during the decade of the 1970s
when the economy was hit with several
increases in oil prices.
In recent years, the inflation rate has been
relatively low.
Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.
6-33
34
Inflation 2000-talet
Inflation
Årlig procentuell förändring
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
År
Hämtat: 2011-10-06
Källa: SCB, US Bur eau of Labour Statistics och Eur ostat
Sverige
Eurozonen
USA
35
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
and Inflation
6.6
THE COSTS OF INFLATION
Anticipated Inflation
● menu costs
The costs associated with changing
prices and printing new price lists
when there is inflation.
● shoe-leather costs
Costs of inflation that arise from trying
to reduce holdings of cash.
Unanticipated Inflation
● hyperinflation
An inflation rate exceeding 50 percent
per month.
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36 of 29
Inflationens
omfördelningseffekter
• Effekt på löner och inkomstfördelning =>
trögrörliga löner missgynnas.
37
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e
Inflationens
omfördelningseffekter
Lön
Förhandling: Parterna bestämmer nominell löneutveckling i avtal
utifrån önskad reallöneutveckling och förväntad inflation.
– Ett exempel kan vara 5%=3%+2%.
Om nu den faktiska inflationen istället blir 5% som kommer den
faktisk reallöneutveckling att bli 0.
- Resultat 5%=0%+5%.
Vårt exempel: Reallön 0%, löntagare förlorar och arbetsgivare
vinner.
38
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e
Varför inflation?
• Kort sikt
– Importerad
– Flaskhalsar i produktionen
– Lönebildning
– Ändrad priskonkurrens
– Inertia
• Lång sikt
– Penningpolitik
39
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e
16.5
HYPERINFLATION
● hyperinflation
An inflation rate exceeding 50 percent per month.
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 16
The Dynamics of Inflation
and Unemployment
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
40 of 23
1
MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. CURRENCY IS HELD OVERSEAS
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS #1: What fraction of the stock of
U.S. currency is held abroad?
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
6/e.
APPLICATION
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
According to a report from the U.S. Treasury, between 53 and 66 percent
of U.S. currency outstanding is held abroad.
About 25 percent of the currency held abroad is located in Latin America,
20 percent in Africa and the Middle East, and about 15 percent in Asia.
The remaining 40 percent is held in Europe and countries of the former
Soviet Union and their trading partners.
Why do foreigners want to hold U.S. dollars?
• They provide a safe store of value.
• They also provide anonymity to the holder of the currency and are
accepted widely throughout the world.
• As long as the U.S. economy remains strong, there will always be a
worldwide demand for dollars.
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Global ekonomi, Kapitel 8, Copyright:
Claes Berg & SNS Förlag
42
Global ekonomi, Kapitel 8, Copyright:
Claes Berg & SNS Förlag
43
Riksbanken
Ansvar för penningpolitiken
 Sedelmonopol
 Bankernas bank
 Ansvar för betalningsväsendet
 Sköter bankclearing
Förvalta valuta- och guldreserv
44
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e
Riksbankens sedan 1999
• Upprätthålla prisstabilitet
– Lagstadgat inflationsmål, 2% (tolerans om
1%)
• Främja ett säkert och effektivt
betalningssystem
• Penningpolitiken styrs av en professionell
direktion
• Förbud mot regeringsdirektiv
• Riksbanksfullmäktige endast en
kontrollfunktion
45
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e
13.3
A BANKER’S BANK:
THE FEDERAL RESERVE
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
Functions of the Federal Reserve
THE FED SUPPLIES CURRENCY TO THE ECONOMY
Working through the banking system, the Federal Reserve is responsible for
supplying currency to the economy. Although currency is only one component of
the money supply, if individuals prefer to hold currency rather than demand
deposits, the Federal Reserve and the banking system will facilitate the public’s
preferences.
THE FED PROVIDES A SYSTEM OF CHECK COLLECTION AND CLEARING
The Federal Reserve is responsible for making our system of complex financial
transactions “work.” This means that when Paul writes Freda a check, the Federal
Reserve oversees the banks to ensure Freda’s bank receives the funds from Paul’s
bank. This is known as check clearing. As our economy moves to more electronic
transactions, the Federal Reserve provides oversight over these transactions as
well.
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13.3
A BANKER’S BANK:
THE FEDERAL RESERVE
Macroeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools
O’Sullivan, Sheffrin, Perez
6/e.
C H A P T E R 13
Money and the
Banking System
Functions of the Federal Reserve
THE FED HOLDS RESERVES FROM BANKS AND OTHER DEPOSITORY
INSTITUTIONS AND REGULATES BANKS
As we have seen, banks are required to hold reserves with the Federal Reserve
System. The Federal Reserve also serves as a regulator to banks to ensure they
are complying with rules and regulations. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve wants to
ensure the financial system is safe.
THE FED CONDUCTS MONETARY POLICY
● monetary policy
The range of actions taken by
the Federal Reserve to influence
the level of GDP or inflation.
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C H A P T E R 16
The Dynamics of Inflation
and Unemployment
16.3
HOW THE CREDIBILITY OF A NATION’S
CENTRAL BANK AFFECTS INFLATION (cont’d)
 FIGURE 16.3
How Central Bank
Independence Affects Inflation
Countries in which central banks
are more independent from the
rest of the government have, on
average, lower inflation rates.
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16-48