Transcript Australopithecines

The Economics of :
Evolution, Migration &
Civilisation
-Who will make it and who won’t?
Presented by:
Dawie Roodt
25 September 2008
Evolution Timeline
Australopithecines
Bipedalism, i.e. walk on 2 legs
Opposing thumb, curved toes
Lucy (Ethiopia), Mrs Pless
5.5 million years ago
Evolution Timeline
Australopithecines
Paranthropus
Bigfoot?
Eat roots & vegetation
5.5 m yrs ago
2.7 m yrs ago
Evolution Timeline
Paranthropus
Homo Habilis
Stone tools – ‘capital’
Meat diet
2.7 mya
2.5 million yrs ago
Australopithecines
5.5mya
Evolution Timeline
Australopithecines
Homo Habilis
Paranthropus
5.5mya
2.7 mya
2.5 mya
Homo Erectus
First true hunter gatherer
Migrates out of Africa
1.5 million yrs ago
Use of Fire
Use of Stone Tools
Evolution Timeline
Australopithecines
Homo Habilis
Paranthropus
5.5mya
2.7 mya
Neanderthals
Extinct….
Homo Erectus
2.5 mya
1.5 mya
230,000 yrs ago
Evolution Timeline
Australopithecines
Homo Habilis
Paranthropus
5.5mya
2.7 mya
Neanderthals
Homo Sapiens
“Humans”
Migrate across Asia & Europe
Homo Erectus
2.5 mya
1.5 mya
230k ya
195,000 yrs ago
Key Evolution Factors
• Walk Upright
• Opposing Thumbs
• Capital
• Fire
• Complex Speech
“Mamma Eve”?
Mitochondria
MOTHER
Migration – Then..
26k – 34k
15k
40k – 50k
60k – 70k
130k – 170k
12k – 15k
70k
Social Evolution
How did it happen?
Hunter-Gatherers
• Diet:
High Protein
Low Fat
• Short Life
expectancy
•
•
•
•
Nomadic
Small Groups
No Specialisation
No ‘Surplus’
The
st
1
Big Step Forward:
Domestication of Animals
Domestication of Animals
•
•
•
•
Domesticate animals
Bigger clans
Nomadic
Diet
High Protein
More Fat
• Longer life
expectancy
• Small surplus
The 2nd Big Step Forward:
Domestication of Plants
Vegetable Origins
Asia
Central and
South America
Europe
Africa
Civilisation: Mesopotamia
• Domesticate Plants – especially Grain
• Carbohydrates
more energy
free time
‘surplus’
• Non-Nomadic
• Cities
• Spesialisation
• Autocratic Leadership
• Civilisation = ‘Rules’
Key Characteristics of Civilisation
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Monotheism
Organised Government
Complex Religion
Job Specialisation
Polytheism
Social Class
Royalty
Priests
Writing & Record Keeping
Traders
Arts & Architecture
Public Works
Labourers
Private Property Rights
Dawn of Democracy
Establishment of
Institutions…
The Economic Role of Institutions
Private Property Rights
Freedom of Press
Independent Judiciary
Independence Central Bank
Democratic Process
Destruction of Institutions
Democracy:
New Leader Appointed
Ecstatic!
Change Economic Policy:
More ‘democratic’
Take from the “Haves”
(non-supporters)
Give to the “Have-Nots”
(supporters)
Negative Impact on
Investment
Savings
Confidence
Destruction of Institutions
Democracy:
New Leader Appointed
Ecstatic!
Change Economic Policy:
More ‘democratic’
Take from the “Haves”
(non-supporters)
Give to the “Have-Nots”
(supporters)
Inflation: 200,000,000% ??
Capital
Dwindles….
Start
to
Print Money
Court & Legal System:
Public tries to find Justice
through legal system
Negative Impact on
Investment
Savings
Confidence
Media & Press:
Report on
Disapproval and Objections
by Public
Destruction of Institutions
Democracy:
New Leader Appointed
Ecstatic!
Voting System:
Public tries to
vote dictator out
Capital
Dwindles….
Start
to
Print Money
Court & Legal System:
Public tries to find Justice
through legal system
Change Economic Policy:
More ‘democratic’
Take from the “Haves”
(non-supporters)
Give to the “Have-Nots”
(supporters)
Negative Impact on
Investment
Savings
Confidence
Media & Press:
Report on
Disapproval and Objections
by Public
Destruction of Institutions
Democracy:
New Leader Appointed
Ecstatic!
Voting System:
Public tries to
vote dictator out
Capital
Dwindles….
Start
to
Print Money
Court & Legal System:
Public tries to find Justice
through legal system
Change Economic Policy:
More ‘democratic’
Take from the “Haves”
(non-supporters)
Give to the “Have-Nots”
(supporters)
Negative Impact on
Investment
Savings
Confidence
Media & Press:
Report on
Disapproval and Objections
by Public
Economic Evolution
Shift in Economic Power
Middle East
China
Arabia/Islam
West - U.S.
10,000 BC – 500 AC
1000 BC – 1200 AC
600 BC – 1300 AC
1300 AC -
Economic Position; 2007
Ita
ly
Fran
U.S.
ce
U.K.
Ja
pa
n
an
y
er
m
ne
zo
ro
G
Eu
ina
h
C
Source: World Bank, 2007
GDP Growth: China vs U.S.
%
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Chinese GDP Growth
2006
2007
2008*
2009*
2010*
U.S. GDP Growth
Source: International Monetary Fund, 2008
When will China overtake the
U.S.??
US$m, @ market prices
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
U.S.
2022
2025
2028
2031
China
Source: World Bank, 2008; Efficient Research
Possible Economic Position; 2030
ny
ma
Ger
n
pa
Ja
India
China
Russia
U.S
.
Eu
ro
z
on
e
il
z
a
Br
Source: Efficient Research
Only Constant
= Change
Migration – Now..
Implications of Migration
• Changes in
Racial Demography
• Changes in
Religious Demography
Religion Adherents: Global
Religion Demography: Global
Four Largest Adherents Globally
Christianity
Islam
Irreligious/Atheist
Hinduism
2.1bn
1.3bn
1.1bn
900m
•Fastest Growing Religion
•Influx of Muslim Immigrants
in West increase
Significance
75.0%
•
•
•
•
An Example: United Kingdom
St Paul’s Cathedral, London
The East London Mosque in Whitechapel
“Londonistan”: Muslim Population
Is the Future Grey?
Global Population Growth
annual%
2.3
2.2
3.6bn
2.0
1.9
5.2bn
1.7
1.6
1.4
2.6bn
- Development
- Contraception
- Education
1.3
1.1
6.7bn
7.7bn
1.0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Pop Growth
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Estimate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008
Life Expectancy
Years
75
65
55
45
35
1950-1955
Asia
1960-1965
1970-1975
North America
1980-1985
Europe
1990-1995
2000-2005
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: World Resources Institute, 2006
Life Expectancy
over 80
██ 77.5-80
██ 75-77.5
██ 72.5-75
██ 70-72.5
██ 67.5-70
██ 65-67.5
██
60-65
██ 55-60
██ 50-55
██ 45-50
██ 40-45
██ under 40
██ not available
██
Source: CIA World Factbook, 2007
Zooming in:
South Africa
Religion Demography
Hindu, 1.2%
Muslim,
1.5%
Other,
2.2%
Source: Community Survey 2007, StatsSA
Racial Demography
Racial Demography
%
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Indian or Asian
Coloured
1996
White
2001
Black African
2007
Source: Community Survey 2007, StatsSA
SA’s Population by Age
Population Distribution by Age
%
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1996
2001
0-14
15-64
2007
65+
Source: Community Survey 2007, StatsSA
Economic Overview
2007
2008
2009
M3 (average)
23.7%
20.0%
17.9%
PSCE (average)
22.2%
19.9%
14.6%
CPIX (average)
6.5%
11.6%
7.8%
Prime (end of year)
14.5%
15.5%
14.5%
Current Account: Nom
-R138.2bn
-R166.3bn
-R182.1bn
Current Account: GDP
-7.3%
-8.1%
-7.7%
R/$ (end of year)
R6.84
R7.80
R9.00
GDP (full year)
5.1%
3.0%
3.8%
Budget Surplus/(Deficit):
GDP
0.7%
0.4%
(0.3%)