Transcript Lecture-7x
Global Business Management (MGT380) Lecture #7: International Trade Theory Learning Objectives To understand theoretical underpinnings why countries trade with each other Be aware of the different theories that explain trade flows between nations. Our focus would be on the following theories: Heckscher-Ohlin theory Leontief Paradox Product Life Cycle (Vernon) New trade theory Porter Diamond Quick recap of last lecture Free trade refers to a situation where a government does not attempt to influence through quotas or duties what its citizens can buy from another country or what they can produce and sell to another country. The Pattern of International Trade are difficult to explain Mercantilism makes a crude case for government involvement in promoting exports and limiting imports. zero-sum game. In 1776, Smith proposed Absolute Advantage concept, suggested that countries differ in their ability to produce goods efficiently. A country has an absolute advantage in the production of a product when it is more efficient than any other country in producing it. Example of England and France. According to Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage, it makes sense for a country to specialize in the production of those goods that it produces most efficiently and to buy the goods that it produces less efficiently from other countries, even if this means buying goods from other countries that it could produce more efficiently itself. Assumptions of Comparative Advantage Theory Comparative Advantage Theory • The theory of comparative advantage argues that trade is a positive sum gain in which all gain. It provides a strong rationale for encouraging free trade. Qualifications and Assumptions • The simple example of comparative advantage makes a number of assumptions: only two countries and two goods; zero transportation costs; similar prices and values; resources are mobile between goods within countries, but not across countries; constant returns to scale; fixed stocks of resources; and no effects on income distribution within countries Simple Extensions of the Ricardian Model Immobile Resources • Resources do not always move freely from one economic activity to another Dynamic Effects and Economic Growth • Trade might increase a country's stock of resources as increased supplies become available from abroad • Free trade might increase the efficiency of resource utilization, and free up resources for other uses The Samuelson Critique Samuelson argues that the ability to offshore services jobs that were traditionally not internationally mobile may have the effect of a mass inward migration into the United States, where wages would then fall Country Focus: Moving U.S. White Collar Jobs Offshore Summary This feature goes to the heart of a debate that has been played out many times over the past half century—the transference of jobs from the United States to lower-wage countries. The difference now however, is that rather than bluecollar jobs being transferred, the new trend is for white-collar jobs to move, jobs associated with the knowledge-based economy. Suggested Discussion Questions 1. Will the United States suffer from the loss of highly skilled and high paying jobs? What does the transference of white-collar jobs mean to the average American? 2. What does the transference of white-collar jobs mean to recipient countries such as India and the Philippines? 3. Why do American companies transfer white-collar jobs to countries like India and the Philippines? Link between Trade and Growth Studies exploring the relationship between trade and economic growth suggest that countries that adopt a more open stance toward international trade enjoy higher growth rates than those that close their economies to trade. Trade increase stock of resources Trade increase the efficiency(technology, competition, economy of scale) Heckscher-Ohlin Theory Heckscher and Ohlin argued that comparative advantage arises from differences in national factor endowments The Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts that countries will export goods that make intensive use of those factors that are locally abundant, while importing goods that make intensive use of factors that are locally scarce It is relative not absolute The Leontief Paradox In 1953, Wassily Leontief postulated that since the U.S. was relatively abundant in capital compared to other nations, the U.S. would be an exporter of capital intensive goods and an importer of labor-intensive goods. However, he found that U.S. exports were less capital intensive than U.S. imports (exporting labor-intensive) Since this result was at variance with the predictions of the theory, it has become known as the Leontief Paradox It is driven by international differences in productivity Product life-cycle Theory In the mid-1960s, Raymond Vernon proposed the product lifecycle theory that suggested that as products mature both the location of sales and the optimal production location will change affecting the flow and direction of trade. • Early in the life cycle of a typical new product, while demand is starting to grow in the U.S., demand in other advanced countries is limited to high-income groups, and so it is not worthwhile for firms in those countries to start producing the new product, but it does necessitate some exports from the U.S. to those countries •Over time, demand for the new product starts to grow in other advanced countries making it worthwhile for foreign producers to begin producing for their home markets •U.S. firms might also set up production facilities in those advanced countries where demand is growing limiting the exports from the U.S. • As the market in the U.S. and other advanced nations matures, the product becomes more standardized, and price becomes the main competitive weapon •Producers based in advanced countries where labor costs are lower than the United States might now be able to export to the U.S. • If cost pressures become intense, developing countries begin to acquire a production advantage over advanced countries • The United States switches from being an exporter of the product to an importer of the product as production becomes more concentrated in lower-cost foreign locations. •In 1960 Xerox photocopier Evaluating the Product Life Cycle Theory While the product life cycle theory accurately explains what has happened for products like photocopiers and a number of other high technology products developed in the US in the 1960s and 1970s, the increasing globalization and integration of the world economy has made this theory less valid in today's world. What about TV(Japan), Laptop? New Trade Theory New trade theory suggests that because of economies of scale (unit cost reductions associated with a large scale of output) and increasing returns to specialization, in some industries there are likely to be only a few profitable firms Firms with first mover advantages (the economic and strategic advantages that accrue to many entrants into an industry) will develop economies of scale and create barriers to entry for other firms. More applicable where demand is limited. Increasing Product Variety and Reducing Costs A nation may be able to specialize in producing a narrower range of products than it would in the absence of trade, yet by buying goods that it does not make from other countries, each nation can simultaneously increase the variety of goods available to its consumers and lower the costs of those goods Economies of Scale, First Mover Advantages, and the Pattern of Trade The pattern of trade we observe in the world economy may be the result of first mover advantages and economies of scale Implications of New Trade Theory • New trade theory suggests that nations may benefit from trade even when they do not differ in resource endowments or technology, and that a country may predominate in the export of a good simply because it was lucky enough to have one or more firms among the first to produce that good • While this is at variance with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, it does not contradict comparative advantage theory, but instead identifies a source of comparative advantage • An extension of the theory is the implication that governments should consider strategic trade policies that nurture and protect firms and industries where first mover advantages and economies of scale are important Porter’s Diamond Porter’s 1990 study tried to explain why a nation achieves international success in a particular industry and identified four attributes that promote or impede the creation of competitive advantage: Factor Endowments • A nation's position in factors of production can lead to competitive advantage • These factors can be either basic (natural resources, climate, location) or advanced (skilled labor, infrastructure, technological know-how) Demand Conditions • The nature of home demand for the industry’s product or service influences the development of capabilities • Sophisticated and demanding customers pressure firms to be competitive. Camera industry in Japan; Ericson in Sweden; Nokia in Finland. Relating and Supporting Industries •The presence supplier industries and related industries that are internationally competitive can spill over and contribute to other industries • Successful industries tend to be grouped in clusters in countries - having world class manufacturers of semi-conductor processing equipment can lead to (and be a result of having) a competitive semi-conductor industry Firms strategy, structure, and rivalry • The conditions in the market determining how companies are created, organized, and managed and nature of domestic rivalry. • For example: focus of Japanese and German management is production design which is there competitive advantage. •Two additional factors: Chance and Government Focus on managerial implications There are at least three main implications for international businesses: location implications, first-mover implications, and policy implications. Location • One way in which the material discussed in this chapter matters to an international business is the link between the theories and a firm’s decision about where to locate its productive activities • It makes sense for a firm to disperse its various productive activities to those countries where they can be performed most efficiently First Mover Advantages •Being a first mover can have important competitive implications, especially if there are economies of scale and the global industry will only support a few competitors Government Policy Government policies with respect to free trade or protecting domestic industries can significantly impact global competitiveness Businesses should work to encourage governmental policies that support free trade Summary of the lecture Assumption of competitive advantage theory: The simple example of comparative advantage makes a number of assumptions: only two countries and two goods; zero transportation costs; similar prices and values; resources are mobile between goods within countries, but not across countries; constant returns to scale; fixed stocks of resources; and no effects on income distribution within countries. The Samuelson Critique: Samuelson argues that 1) Resources do not always move freely from one economic activity to another. 2) the ability to offshore services jobs that were traditionally not internationally mobile may have the effect of a mass inward migration into the United States, where wages would then fall. Studies exploring the relationship between trade and economic growth suggest that countries that adopt a more open stance toward international trade enjoy higher growth rates than those that close their economies to trade. Trade increase stock of resources, Trade increase the efficiency(technology, competition, economy of scale) Heckscher and Ohlin argued that comparative advantage arises from differences in national factor endowments . Relative not Absolute. In 1953, Wassily Leontief postulated that since the U.S. was relatively abundant in capital compared to other nations, the U.S. would be an exporter of capital intensive goods and an importer of labor-intensive goods. However, he found that U.S. exports were less capital intensive than U.S. imports (exporting labor-intensive). In the mid-1960s, Raymond Vernon proposed the product life-cycle theory that suggested that as products mature both the location of sales and the optimal production location will change affecting the flow and direction of trade. Economies of Scale, First Mover Advantages, and the Pattern of Trade Porter’s 1990 study tried to explain why a nation achieves international success in a particular industry and identified four attributes that promote or impede the creation of competitive advantage: Factor Endowments: A nation's position in factors of production can lead to competitive advantage, natural resources or human capital Demand Conditions: The nature of home demand for the industry’s product or service influences the development of capabilities. Sophisticated and demanding customers pressure firms to be competitive. Relating and Supporting Industries: The presence supplier industries and related industries that are internationally competitive can spill over and contribute to other industries Firms strategy, structure, and rivalry: The conditions in the market determining how companies are created, organized, and managed and nature of domestic rivalry.