Transcript United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

Energies Renouvelables
Renewable Energy
G15 – Dakar 6 November 2012
Benoit Lebot
UNDP Climate Change Advisor
[email protected]
Homme Moderne
20 koe/d/cap
Vent,
Hydro,
Révolution
Industrielle
5 koe/d/cap
Agriculture, Force Animale
Elevage
Feu &
2.6 koe/d/cap
Chasse 1.2 koe/d/cap
Cuisson
0.2 koe/d/cap 0.4 koe/d/cap
-1Million
BC
-400 000
BC
-5 000
BC
1200
AC
1850
AC
2 000
AC
X4
Population
1900
2000
X 16
X4
Population Energie
1900
2000
Mtoe
World primary energy demand in the Reference
Scenario of the IEA
18 000
Other renewables
16 000
Hydro
14 000
Nuclear
12 000
Biomass
10 000
8 000
Gas
6 000
Coal
4 000
Oil
2 000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
World energy demand expands by 45% between now and
2030 – an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with
coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
Milliards
de TEP
Réserves prouvées
d’énergie dans le monde
600
500
300
200
Autres
Chine :
21.8%
Ex - URSS :
22.5%
100
Amérique du
nord : 25.4%
0
218
ans
Réserve Conso.
annuelle
Charbon
Autres
Moyen Orient :
63.6%
Réserve
41
ans
Conso.
annuelle
Pétrole
Autres
Moyen Orient :
33.9%
Ex - URSS :
38.7%
Réserve
63
ans
Conso.
annuelle
Gaz
Source : AIE/OCDE
400
Les trois générations de
consommation du pétrole
Chocs &
TVTBMLM contre-chocs
Source:
ASPO 2004
L’après pic
8
Il y a 6 000 ans le Sahara était vert
Aujourd’hui c’est un désert
-36 m
Mer Méditerranée aujourd’hui
Source: GoogleEarth
Mer Méditerranée il y a 15 000 année
-5 °C
par rapport à la température moyenne aujourd’hui
Source: France 2 Malaterre
15
L’effet de serre: un phénomène naturel
11
2 3
Atmosphère
L’effet de serre: un phénomène naturel
1
Sans atmosphère, la
température à la surface du
sol serait de -18°C
-18°C
L’effet de serre: un phénomène naturel
Avec atmosphère, la
température à la surface du
sol est de +15°C
11
2 3
Atmosphère
+15°C
Quels sont les gaz à effet de serre?
Les 6 Principaux Gaz à Effet de Serre
Intégrés au UNFCCC
(Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur le
Changement Climatique)
• Dioxide de Carbone :
• Méthane:
• Protoxyde d’azote :
• Hydrofluorocarbons:
• Perfluorocarbons:
• Sulphur hexafluoride:
CO2
CH4
N2O
HFCs
PFCs
SF6
20
22
Le Cycle du Carbone :
Sources & Puits Dioxide de Carbone
Avant l’ère industrielle, les sources de carbone étaient équilibréespar les
puits (données en e in Gigatons of CO2 per year
Océan
80
~15
Accumulation Nette
Respiration
Terre
260
70
Release
Increase Uptake by Plants
Respiration
Volcanoes
Weathering
0.7
440
260
Absorbtion
440
10
Absorbtion
Change Usage des Terres
Atmosphere
Photosynthesis
Emissions Industrielles
Humaines CO2
26 6 0.3
=
23
Source: IPCC (2007)
L’effet de serre: un phénomène naturel
11
2 3
La couche
de Gaz à Effet
de Serre
s’épaissit
World Green House Gas Emissions
14%
CH4
8%
F Gas
1%
18%
N2O
CO2
From
LUCF
CO2
From
Combustion
59%
Global GHG emissions per Sector
Waste &
wastewater
2.8 %
Forestry
17.4%
Energy
Supply
25.9%
Agriculture
13.4%
Transport
13.1%
Residential &
Industry
Commercial
19.4%
Buildings
Source: IPCC AR4, Synthesis Report (shares are for 2004)
7.9%
GHG Emissions
32 Gtons CO2 /year
450 ppm
~+2°C
2012
394 ppm
http://co2now.org/
GHG Concentration
GHG Sinks (Sequestration
15 Gtons CO2 /year
Classement des 20 années les plus chaudes depuis
1880, par ordre décroissant de température
1
2
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010
2005
1998
2009
2002
2003
2007
2004
2011
2006
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2001
2008
1997
1990
1995
2000
1991
1987
1988
1994
Source l’Union of Concerned Scientists (1) http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/recordtemp2005.html
29
Evolution du Niveau des Océans
• 1990s: fastest recorded rise at 4mm per year
•Longer term: ≥ 1m per century very plausibleSource: IPCC (2007)
Projection des Evolutions des
concentration CO2
CO2 (in ppm)
970
540
280
1800
367
2000
2100
31
Evolution possible de la
température moyenne sur terre
+5°C
?
2000
+2°C
2100
32
Mer Méditerranée il y a 15 000 année
-5 °C
par rapport à la température moyenne aujourd’hui
Source: France 2 Malaterre
Pathway towards a 2°C Global Warming
UNDP HDR Objective for 2050:
• In the north, - 80% in emissions
CO2/Cap/year
North
16.1 tCO2eq/Cap
South
4.2 tCO2eq/Cap
•In the south, - 20% in emissions
Today World
Average
2007
2020
2050
Target
50%
Global
Emissions
2050
Prof. Kaya
(World Summit 1992)
GHG TOE GDP POP
GHG = TOE X GDP X POPX
Greenhouse
Gas =
Emission
Carbon
Contain
Energy
x
Energy
Intensity
x Wealthx
Population
Prof. Kaya
(World Summit 1992)
GHG TOE GDP
GHG = TOE X GDP X POPX POP
½=
In 2050
?
x
?
x
3
x
3/2
Prof. Kaya
(World Summit 1992)
GHG TOE GDP
GHG = TOE X GDP X POPX POP
by 2050
1/2= 1/3 x 1/6 x 3 x 3/2
3%/year
4%/year
Prof. Kaya
(World Summit 1992)
GHG TOE GDP
GHG = TOE X GDP X POPX POP
by 2050
1/2= 1/6 x 1/3 x 3 x 3/2
4%/year
3%/year
A pressing need for global GHG
mitigation
Energie Durable pour Tous
www.sustainableenergyforall.org
Sustainable Energy for All
Energie Durable pour Tous
L’énergie transforme nos vies, nos économies & notre planète.
www.sustainableenergyforall.org
© The Energy Resource
Institute
Energie Durable pour Tous
D’ici à 2030, 3 objectifs
1.Accès à l’énergie moderne pour tous
2.Doubler l’efficacité énergétique
3.Doubler la part des énergies renouvelables
www.sustainableenergyforall.org
Renewable Energy in the World
RE supplied an estimated 17% of global final
energy consumption
43
Top RE Countries in 2012
Germany continues to lead in Europe and to be
in the forefront globally, remaining among the
top users of many renewable technologies for
power, heating, and transport.
China ended 2011 with more renewable power
capacity than any other country, with an
estimated 282 GW; one-quarter of this total (70
GW) was non-hydro.
45
Global Market Overview – Power Markets
Renewables accounted for nearly half of the
estimated 208 GW of new electric capacity
installed in 2011
Renewable electric power capacity worldwide
reached 1,360 GW (+8%) in 2011
Renewable energy comprised more than 25% of
global power generation capacity
20.3% of global electricity was produced from
renewable energy
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Global Market Overview - Transport
RE used in form of electricity, hydrogen, biogas,
liquid biofuels. Liquid biofuels provided 3% of
global road transport fuel in 2011.
Electric transport is being tied directly with
renewable energy through policy directives in many
countries.
Johannesburg, South Africa introduced 25
ethanol buses into its public transportation fleet
during 2011
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48
Hydropower
25GW of new hydropower was added in 2011,
increasing capacity by nearly 3%, bringing installed
capacity to 970GW
 Globally hydropower generated 3,400TWh of electricity
in 2011. China alone produced 663TWh followed by
Brazil (450TWh)
In late 2011, Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania announced
plans to build a 90MW hydropower plant, with financing
expected from the World Bank and AfDB
South Africa is expected to have 1332MW of pumped
storage facility by 2013-2014
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Solar
Power
50
Solar
Power
30GW of new solar PV capacity came into
being in 2011
460 MW of Concentrating Solar Power installed
in 2011 bringing the total installed capacity to
1.760 MW
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52
Wind Power
In 2011, 40GW of wind power capacity was
installed, increasing the total to 238GW.
 Annual growth rate of cumulative wind power
capacity between 2006-2010 averaged at 26%
Wind power accounted for 30% of the total new
renewable energy capacity
53
Wind Power
54
55
Biomass Energy
Biomass energy accounted for over 10% of global
primary energy supply in 2011
The present global demand for biomass is 53EJ,
mainly used for heating, cooking and industrial
applications
Liquid biofuels production grew rapidly at 17% for
ethanol and 27% for biodiesel
Most sugar producing countries in Africa generate
power and heat with bagasse-based combined heat
and power plants. Grid connected CHP exists in
Kenya, Mauritius, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe
Geothermal Energy
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Geothermal Energy
205 TWh (738PJ) of district heat and electricity was
provided by geothermal resources in 2011
Heat output from geothermal sources grew at 100%
p.a. from 2005-2010; reaching 489PJ in 2011
Geothermal power became more attractive due to
flexibility offered by new technologies such as flash
plants combined with binary bottoming cycles for
increased efficiency
Geothermal Power has taken hold in East Africa’s Rift
Valley. Drought in the region has increased interest on
geothermal to reduce reliability on hydropower
58
Industry Trends
59
Industry Trends
60
Industry Trends
RE industry saw continued growth in manufacturing,
sales and installation
Cost reductions (especially in PV and onshore wind)
contributed to growth
Changing policy landscape in many countries  industry
uncertainties, declining policy support, international
financial crisis and barriers to trade
Worldwide jobs in renewable energy industries
exceeded 5 million in 2011; clustered primarily in
bioenergy and solar industries
Green power markets are emerging in South Africa, with
at least one company providing green power to retail
customers in South Africa
61
Investment Flows
62
Investment Flows
Total global investment in RE jumped in
2011to a record of $257 billion , up 17% from
2010 (15 % for Asia Oceania region).
This is 6 times the level of investment in 2004
and 94% more than the total investment in RE
in 2007.
Despite the rise in investment, the rate of
growth of investment was below the 37% rise
in investment from 2009 to 2010.
Total investment in the RE sector in the Middle
East and Africa combined was USD 4.9 Billion.
63
Investment Flows
 The top 5 countries for total investment in 2011:
China, USA, Germany, Italy and India.
RE Investment in China went up by 17% in 2011
Investment in RE in USA made a significant leap of
57% in 2011.
Investment in Germany (excluding R&D) dipped 12%
from the 2010 levels
 Investment in RE in India went up by 62% in 2011
relative share of total global investment of
developing countries slip back :
USD 89 billion of new investment in 2011 in developing
countries
USD 168 billion in developed countries
Policy Landscape
65
Policy Landscape
Targets in at least 118 countries up from the
96 reported in previous year; more than half
are developing countries
Some setbacks resulting from a lack of longterm policy certainty and stability in many
countries
South Africa introduced a new 20 year plan
calling for renewables to account for 42% of all
new capacity installed up to 2030
66
Policy Landscape
Renewable power generation policies remain the most
common type of support policy, in particular Feed-intariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS)
FIT policies were in place in at least 65 countries and 27
states worldwide by early 2012.
Policies to promote renewable heating and cooling
expanded.
Almost two-thirds of the world’s largest cities had
adopted climate change action plans by the end of 2011,
with more than half of them planning to increase their
uptake of renewable energy.
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Energy Access
2.6 billion people still employed traditional cookstoves
and open fires for heating and cooking in 2011
UN Secretary General’s goal: Global action to achieve
universal access to modern energy services by 2030
In order to achieve universal access for all, current global
investments on energy access of annual 9 billion USD
need to be increased to 48 billion USD
Lower prices of renewable energy technology is allowing
manufacturers to diversify into emerging markets
Large numbers of actors and programmes, with limited
coordination, makes impact assessment and data
collection a big challenge
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Electricity Access by Region
Rural Renewable Energy in Africa
Africa : lowest rates of access to modern energy services
More than 650 million people rely on using traditional
biomass for cooking
Ghana is the frontrunner with an electrification rate of
72% and aims for universal energy access by 2020
Most renewable energy projects being implemented in
Africa are off-grid
(though grid connected renewable energy necessary to
attract investment)
550,000 improved cookstoves have been disseminated in
Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal
and Uganda since 2009
71
Enabling Framework
Enhanced energy security,
more stable climate
Improved
public health
Right policy
framework
Increased
productivity & growth
Creation of jobs
72
Kombikraftwerk: almost 100 % verified in real time on
one year
Possible potential to add: DSM (kW and kWh), Hydro, offshore
wind, solid biomass, geothermal power, ocean energy
74
Figure 1: Traditional Electric Landscape
(XX Century)
Large
Power
Plants
Transmission
Grid
Limited
Exchanges
Distribution
Grid
Central
Dispatching
Passive &
captive
consumers
Figure 2: New & Desirable Electrical Landscape
Regulatory Framework
Large
Power
Plants
(XXI
Century)
Local clusters Coupling
Offer & Demand:
« Virtual Grids »
RE IPPs
Transmission
& Balancing Grid
Harvesting,
Mutualisation
&Distributing
Grid
Expanded
Exchanges
Central Dispatching +
Forecasting, control-command
& distributed intelligence,
RESe production supervision
Eco-Consumers
(Energy Efficient enduse)
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Merci pour votre attention!
[email protected]
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