Transcript University of Melbourne

Funding Australia’s Future:
From where do we begin?
& Implications for Mutual ADIs
Kevin Davis
Professor of Finance, University of Melbourne
Research Director, Australian Centre for Financial
Studies (and Professor, Monash University)
University of Melbourne 1
Background and Objectives
• Funding Australia’s Future project at ACFS
– Identify possible developments in demand
for and supply of finance
– Implications for financial flows and financial
sector structure
– Impediments to efficient financing
• Stage 1: three background papers
– Release July 10, Sydney Conference Aug 7
• Stage 2: further commissioned studies on
specific topics
University of Melbourne 2
Rationale and Issues
• Financial sector in continual state of evolution
– Adjusting to technology, regulation,
changing pattern of real sector demand &
supply of finance
• Future development will be influenced by
current situation and recent trends
• What does Australian financial sector look like
(vis a vis others) and why?
• Are recent trends transitory or long-lasting?
• What are some scenarios?
– & policy and strategy issues
University of Melbourne 3
Session Overview
1. Major Post GFC changes
2. Special Characteristics of the Australian
Financial Sector
3. Future-gazing
4. Mutual ADI issues
University of Melbourne 4
Post GFC Changes
• Initial table discussion
• Identify 4-5 of the major changes in financial
trends post the GFC, whether they are likely to
be permanent or transitory, and implications
• These could include aspects of: financial flows
/ patterns of financing; sectoral (household,
corporate, govt, international) balance sheets;
financial products; financial sector prices;
financial sector structure; etc
• (We’ll then discuss and compare with my list)
University of Melbourne 5
1. Financial sector growth relative to GDP
has ceased
Financial Institution Assets / GDP
4.00
3.50
3.00
Securitisation Vehicles
2.50
General Insurance
2.00
Managed Funds
1.50
Superannuation
1.00
Life Offices
0.50
Registered Financial Corporations
ADIs
0.00
1997
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Both activity level and asset valuation effects are relevant
* Table excludes assets of SMSF
University of Melbourne 6
1. Financial sector growth relative to GDP
has ceased (cont.)
Finance & Insurance: contribution to Gross Value Added
Year*
1979
4.70%
1985
5.04%
1990
6.38%
1995
6.85%
2000
8.05%
2005
9.37%
2006
10.03%
2007
10.65%
2008
10.27%
2009
10.06%
2010
10.22%
2011
10.13%
2012
10.27%
University of Melbourne 7
Australian Financial Instruments: September 2012
Deposits &
Currency
Bills & CP
Bonds issued in
Australia
Bonds issued
overseas
Derivatives
Loans
Listed shares &
equity
Unlisted shares &
equity
Accounts
receivable
Growth rate 2002-2007
Growth rate 2007-2012
Size ($ trill) at
September 2012
14%
15%
9%
-6%
1.81
0.44
13%
20%
1.15
13%
21%
13%
3%
7%
6%
0.56
0.40
2.84
20%
-6%
1.24
14%
-1%
1.82
2%
6%
0.47
University of Melbourne 8
2. Growth in Market Turnover (other than
debt) declined
Year
Turnover (AUD billion)
Debt
Currency
Equities
Physical
Derivative Physical
Derivative Physical Derivative
1999-00
8,804
11,886
5,706
10,842
361
541
2004-05
17,306
29,767
9,675
25,156
806
950
2009-10
11,134
46,110
14,680
27,461
1,359
2,801
2010-11
13,430
63,850
11,853
33,395
1,339
3,198
2011-12
13,549
65,903
10,843
30,007
1,185
3,387
Source: AFMA Australian Financial Mark ets Report (various issues)
Despite credit markets
being the GFC problem
Despite HFT
University of Melbourne 9
3. Securitisation slowed dramatically
(domestic) and ceased (internationally)
Bonds on Issue in Australia
$350
$300
$200
$150
$100
$50
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
Mar-07
Mar-06
Mar-05
Mar-04
Mar-03
Mar-02
Mar-01
$0
Mar-00
$ Billion
$250
Other private non-financial corporations
Banks
Central borrowing authorities
Securitisers
National general government
Rest of world
University of Melbourne
10
3. Securitisation slowed dramatically
(domestic) and ceased (internationally)
Billion
Australian Bond Holdings of Rest of World
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Corporate
Banks &
Depository
Corporations
CBAs
Securitisers
Federal Govt
Issuer
Sep-2000
Sep-2004
Sep-2008
Sep-2012
University of Melbourne
11
4. Funds management industry growth interrupted.
3
2
$ Trillions
2
1
1
0
Jun-1988
Jun-1992
Jun-1996
Jun-2000
Jun-2004
Jun-2008
Jun-2012
Managed funds assets under management
Consolidated assets of managed funds institutions
University of Melbourne
12
5 Banks shift towards domestic deposit funding
Bank Liabilities
35%
30%
25%
Sep-02
20%
Sep-07
15%
Sep-12
10%
5%
0%
Business
Deposits
Pension
Fund
Deposits
Household
Deposits
One-name
paper - Aust
Bonds Australia
ROW
University of Melbourne
13
With the result that…
Wholesale - Retail Deposit Spreads
3.00
per cent
2.00
1.00
0.00
Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
Quarter
3 year spread (Government Bond less Term Deposit: Average over
Quarter)
3 month spread (Bank Bill less Term Deposit: Average over Quarter)
University of Melbourne
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6. Increasing scale and leverage of household
balance sheets has paused
leverage
scale
Debt/
Assets
Housing
Debt/
Housing
Assets
Debt/
Income*
Total
Assets/
Income
Financial
Assets/
Income
Interest
Payments/
Income
Housing
Interest
Payments/
Income
Jun-1987
8.7
11.9
43.3
430.1
169.1
7.6
5.2
Jun-1997
11.6
18.6
74.7
560.4
222.0
6.1
4.7
Jun-2007
16.1
25.8
153.5
841.1
350.6
11.3
9.2
Jun-2008
17.1
26.9
150.9
787.6
318.3
13.1
10.8
Jun-2009
18.4
29.6
146.1
714.7
288.7
9.0
7.2
Jun-2010
17.3
26.9
152.2
783.8
302.1
11.1
9.0
Jun-2011
17.7
28.3
150.1
743.7
296.2
11.5
9.4
Jun-2012
18.2
30.0
148.0
723.6
299.2
10.4
8.5
University of Melbourne
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Household financial asset composition
changed
Deposits Shares
Unfunded
Super/Life Super
Other
Sep-90
29%
10%
36%
13%
11%
Sep-00
19%
19%
44%
9%
9%
Sep-07
15%
27%
46%
6%
5%
Sep-12
22%
16%
46%
11%
5%
University of Melbourne
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7. Household savings ratio (Nat. Acc. Basis)
has increased
Definition: includes increased home equity; imputed income and
expenditure; super contributions
- Long run Implications for bank deposit growth?
University of Melbourne
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Change in household financial position
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Jun-89
Jun-93
Jun-97
Jun-01
Value
Jun-05
Jun-09
Transactions
Four Quarter Moving Average
Source: ABS cat 5230.0 Table 20
University of Melbourne
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Household Sector: Net transactions:
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jun-90
Jun-94
Jun-98
Deposits
Jun-02
Super
Jun-06
Jun-10
Borrowings
eight quarter moving average
University of Melbourne
19
8. Long term downward share of NBFI
lending to households ended
•
•
•
•
•
Mid 1980s: Banks 2/3; NBFIs 1/3
2007: Banks 2/3; Securitisers 1/5; NBFIs~ 10%
2012: similar to 2007
Few NBFIs left
Share of loans for investment housing increased
from 15% in mid 1990s to 30% at GFC and
constant since.
• Share of owner-occupied housing loans relatively
stable at around 60%
University of Melbourne
20
9. Gradual decline in corporate leverage in
the decades prior to the GFC ceased
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Gross Leverage (Debt/Total Liabilities)
Net Leverage (Debt - Financial assets)/(Total Liabilities - Financial Assets))
Liabilities = Debt + Market Value of Equity
University of Melbourne
21
10. Increase in net funding of the business sector by
households and the ROW relative to financial sector
Inter Sectoral Net Financial Claims ($billion, at September)
Net financial claims of On
2002
Household
Non-Financial Corporations
87
Rest of World
Non-Financial Corporations
223
Financial Corporations Non-Financial Corporations
354
2007
219
383
862
2012
357
613
677
Recent RBA research:
large business gross saving by foreign owned miners
Retained earnings count as income debits on BOP current a/c
Corresponding (offsetting) capital inflow credit
Banks have ceased to be main vehicles for funding BOP
University of Melbourne
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14. Finance Sector Funding of BOP declined
Finance & Insurance Share of International Liabilities
0.6
0.58
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.5
0.48
0.46
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: ABS 5302 Table 84
University of Melbourne
23
11. Corporate accumulation of financial
assets slowed markedly after the GFC
• Corporate sector holdings of financial assets
– increased 13.2% p.a. over 2002 – 2007
– increased 3.1% p.a. 2007 - 2012
• Main changes
– share holdings: -5.1 % p.a. v 12.1% p.a
(partly valuation effects)
– accounts receivable growth slowed from
17.3% to 4.3% p.a.
University of Melbourne
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12. Decline in Government Debt/GDP over
the prior decade was reversed
Percentage
Government Lending/GDP
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
-8.00
1997
2002
2007
Federal Govt
Federal Authorities
State Govt
State Authorities
2012
University of Melbourne
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13. Increased holdings of Federal Govt debt
by the ROW.
Government Debt: Percentage held by Rest of World
Mar-2000
Mar-2001
Mar-2002
Mar-2003
Mar-2004
Mar-2005
Mar-2006
Mar-2007
Mar-2008
Mar-2009
Mar-2010
Mar-2011
Mar-2012
State
CBAs
36%
33%
31%
31%
31%
37%
41%
48%
47%
40%
40%
41%
34%
Federal
30%
28%
37%
34%
46%
56%
53%
55%
66%
62%
70%
71%
84%
Why the lower interest in semis?
University of Melbourne
26
Is the Australian financial system different?
• Table Discussion
• In what ways does the Australian financial
system differ from those found in other
advanced economies? Are there any
implications for business opportunities, risks
etc for ADIs
• Differences could relate to types of institutions;
financial markets; financial products; demand,
supply and allocation of finance; etc
University of Melbourne
27
Current Features of Australian Financing
Patterns
1. banks and superannuation funds dominate the
financial sector, holding approximately ¾ of
financial sector assets.
•
relatively few financial assets held by non-prudentially
regulated financial institutions (excluding SMSFs)
Securitisation Vehicles
General Insurance
Managed Funds
Superannuation
Life Offices
Registered Financial Corporations
ADIs
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
University of Melbourne
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Australia has one of the largest pension fund sectors in
the world, both in absolute terms and relative to GDP
FUND ASSETS
AS A PERCENTAGE
OF GDP
University of Melbourne
29
Australia’s Stock Market is large by
international standards
Stock Market Capitalization / GDP: 2010
250
200
150
100
50
IT
A
JP
N
KO
R
LU
X
N
LD
N
ZL
N
O
R
PO
L
PR
T
SV
K
SV
N
ES
P
SW
E
C
H
E
G
BR
U
SA
IS
L
IR
L
IS
R
AU
S
AU
T
BE
L
C
AN
C
ZE
D
N
K
ES
T
FI
N
FR
A
D
EU
G
R
C
H
U
N
0
And 13th largest in USD terms 2010-2011 (CIA Factbook)
University of Melbourne
30
IT
A
JP
N
KO
R
LU
X
N
LD
N
ZL
N
O
R
PO
L
PR
T
SV
K
SV
N
ES
P
SW
E
C
H
E
G
BR
U
SA
IS
L
IR
L
IS
R
S
AU
T
BE
L
C
AN
C
ZE
D
N
K
ES
T
FI
N
FR
A
D
EU
G
R
C
H
U
N
AU
Listed companies per 10,000 population
Listed Companies/Population
Listed Companies/Population: 2010
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
University of Melbourne
31
Relative to GDP, Australia’s domestic bond market
is of comparable size to most other OECD countries
Private Debt Securities/GDP: 2010
Au
st
ra
l
Au ia
st
Be ria
lg
iu
Ca m
n
De ada
nm
a
Fi rk
nl
Ho
an
ng
Fr d
an
Ko
ng Ge ce
SA r m
R any
,C
hi
n
Ic a
el
an
Ire d
la
nd
Lu Ja
xe pa
m n
Ne bo
th ur
er g
la
nd
No s
Si rwa
ng y
ap
o
Sw re
S
e
Un wit d e
ite zer n
d
l
Ki and
Un ng
ite d o
d
m
St
at
es
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
But few non-financial corporate issues
University of Melbourne
32
The Australian banking sector is of comparable
size to that of other OECD countries
• bank assets/GDP = 131.4 in 2010 versus
median bank assets/GDP = 130.9 for the
OECD).
– (There is significant dispersion in this
measure with the USA = 64.6 and the UK =
202.6).
• Similarly bank deposits/GDP of 98.8 (a lower
figure reflecting the role of wholesale and
equity funding of assets) is close to the OECD
median
University of Melbourne
33
But “Bloody Big Building Societies”
Australia
Canada
China
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Korea
Norway
Portugal
South Africa
Switzerland
UK
USA
Residential real estate
loans to total loans
62.7
34.7
15.8
16.7
29
18.7
21.8
41.4
32.9
32.8
33.6
16.2
35.6
Commercial real estate
loans to total loans
9.7
2.9
6.8
5.7
15.5
8.8
20.6
2
10.4
9.5
6.8
3.6
15.8
University of Melbourne
34
Household sector a net borrower from banks.
• Bank deposits $660 bill; loans from banks $1,130 bill.
• Household equity in super and insurance $1,491 billion
• shares in financial corporations $151 billion, prepaid
insurance premiums $54 billion.
• Loans from securitisers $310 billion; loans from other
depository corporations $100 billion.
• Net claims on financial corporations overall (incl. super)
of around $857 billion.
• Since 1990s share of financial assets in household total
assets has been relatively stable (37 to 42 per cent)
– increased value of superannuation assets largely
matched by increased valuations of housing.
University of Melbourne
35
Aggregate Household balance sheet not
unusual by international standards
Household Assets and Liabilities
(relative to Disposable Income)
700
600
500
400
300
200
Non Financial Assets
Financial Assets
Debt
100
Au
st
ra
lia
(2
Ca
na 012
da
)
(
Fr
20
an
11
c
)
e
G
(2
er
01
m
an
0)
y
(2
01
Ita
1)
ly
(
Ja 201
pa
0)
n
(2
0
UK 10)
(2
US 0 10
)
A
(2
01
1)
0
Sources: OECD Economic Outlook No. 92 (database); RBA Bulletin
University of Melbourne
36
Low Corporate Leverage
University of Melbourne
37
Limited Corporate Use of Debt Capital Markets
Corporate Liabilities
2.5
$ Trillion
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Year (Sept)
bills of exchange
Loans and placements
One name paper
Bonds, etc.
Shares and other equity
University of Melbourne
38
Low Government Debt/GDP
Country
AUS
CAN
CHN
DNK
FRA
DEU
ITA
JPN
KOR
ESP
GBR
USA
Gross Government Debt /GDP 2012
27
88
22
47
90
83
126
237
33
91
89
107
University of Melbourne
39
Finance and Insurance Sectors:
Share of Gross Value Added
Year
Gross Value Added
Australia
2010
10.6%
Canada
2008
6.6%
France
2011
4.7%
Germany
2011
5.2%
Italy
2011
5.4%
UK
2011
8.3%
USA
2012
7.9%
Figures – treat with caution, but…
Explanations?
University of Melbourne
40
Equity Bias in International Investments
Billion
Australian foreign financial asset holdings
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Sep-2000
Sep-2004
Sep-2008
Pa
ya
bl
e
s
Eq
ui
ty
Ac
co
un
t
.L
oa
ns
L.
T
Lo
an
s
S.
T.
es
tiv
De
riv
a
ho
re
of
fs
iss
ue
in
Bo
nd
s
iss
ue
d
De
po
si
Bo
nd
s
Au
st
ts
-
Sep-2012
Share of FDI in stock of overseas assets has fallen from over 40% at
start of 2000’s to around 30% (growth of superfund portfolio investment)
University of Melbourne
41
Significant Financing by Rest of World
External Financial Liabilities and Assets
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
Australian financial assets held by ROW
ROW financial assets held by Australia
University of Melbourne
42
Foreign Direct Investment (Stock)
Inward Stock of FDI /
Stock Market Capitalization
Italy
Taiwan
Germany
Spain
France
Australia
Brazil
UK
Malaysia
Canada
USA
Korea,
Japan
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
University of Melbourne
43
Net Stock of FDI
Outward FDI relatively low (but lots of portfolio investment)
Largest net recipients
China
Brazil
Mexico
Australia
Indonesia
Poland
Turkey
Czech Republic
Russian Federation
India
Chile
Source:
Net Stock of Inward FDI (USD mill): 2011
G7 (& 7 of 10 largest net providers)
1440000
-75415
Canada
467084
-179528
Italy
190221
-504464
Germany
172790
-532216
United Kingdom
152427
-628203
France
147494
-737005
Japan
112354
-1772778
United States
109776
95373
90475
89128
http://www.oecd.org/statistics/
University of Melbourne
44
Large Overseas exposure to AUD
University of Melbourne
45
Sector Financial Positions: Dec 2012 ($Trillion)
Owed by
to
Assets / liabilities
Include equity
& debt
University of Melbourne
46
An Overview
• Financial sector not markedly different to others, but:
– Household savings flow into super for ultimate
investment
– Households major borrowers from banks
– Australian companies use less debt
– Large ROW financing: was a large role for bank
borrowing
– Small Aust. corporate and government bond
market
– Large financial sector by developed world
standards
University of Melbourne
47
Thinking about the Future
• GFC provided transitory shock to financing
patterns
– But unleashed regulatory reform with major
implications for future financing patterns
– Took attention away from long term issues
• Financing patterns haven’t fully adapted to
implications of compulsory superannuation
– Flows of funds, liquidity creation
• Tax system features are a major influence
– Incentives for household sector risk taking
– Patterns of corporate financing
• Structural changes in financing likely
University of Melbourne
48
Financial System Structure “Lagging”
• Superannuation has “re-routed” financial flows
– Household savings increasingly fund securities
investments, not lending and real sector project
assessment (or the creation of securities)
– Some credit / project risk appraisal by super
funds and new security creation - commercial
property, infrastructure.
• Should there be more (super & home
mortgages?)
• What are consequences of increasing ownership of
national capital stock by super for: achievable
returns, innovation & entrepreneurship, capital stock
growth?
University of Melbourne
49
Financial System Structure “Lagging”
• Long-term household portfolio balance
?
↓
↑
?
Assets
Transaction Deposits
Savings Deposits
Super
Housing etc
Liabilities
Borrowings
?
– Short run dynamics complicated: deposits = money
• Banking sector still focused on “liquidity creation” (eg LT
housing loans, ST deposits)
– Even though large stock of illiquid savings exists
(super)
– Basel 3 “penalizing” bank liquidity creation
University of Melbourne
50
Resolving Liquidity Preferences
Demand for
Liquid Assets
Savers/
Investors
Demand for
Illiquid Assets
Money market
Mutual funds (CMTs)
Supply of
Liquid Assets
Secondary
(capital)
markets
Deficit Units
Borrowers
Supply of
Illiquid Assets
University of Melbourne
51
Financial System Structure “Lagging”
• Potential Outcomes
– Bank funding via superfund investments?
• Deposit and bond products (including for SMSF)
– Bank securitisation of assets, loan sales (eg syndications)
• But level of credit risk assessment skills outside
banks?
– Less “commercial” more “investment” banking
• Corporate bond, equity issuance underwriting
• Logic of deposit guarantees for universal banks?
– Bank structure implications?
– Superfund involvement in asset creation
• Joint ventures with experts in risk assessment
• In house risk assessment capabilities
University of Melbourne
52
Infrastructure Investment
• Large stock of long term savings (super) available, but:
– “Greenfields” project risk (and tender costs)
• PPPs not the answer: How best to share risks?
– Should government bear demand (but not
construction) risk?
– “Tranching” claims and risk (securitisation)?
– Pooling risk of many projects?
– “Brownfields” risk and illiquidity
• Liquid claims on illiquid assets can be created
• Investment structures enabling diversification
• But low expected returns on low risk projects?
University of Melbourne
53
A super tax conundrum
• Dividend Imputation
• Tax concessions for super
• Both
– Particularly zero tax rate concessions
If all Australian equities are held by zero tax rate
investors, corporate tax revenue is effectively
zero – a growing Federal Budget problem!
University of Melbourne
54
Corporate Bond Market Development
• Super growth suggests demand side should be there
• Basel 3 incentives for debt capital markets v on-balance
sheet lending - securitisation, corporate debt finance
• Government initiatives for easier issuance
• But
– Imputation: no tax bias to debt v equity funding
• Except for foreign owned companies
– Investor ability to assess credit risk
– Investor ability to diversify credit risk
– Investor “equity bias” – imputation and capital gains
tax concession – is it super equity bias excessive?
– Bank bond issues are competition
• But tendency to be “non-vanilla” (to qualify as
regulatory capital)
– Financial Claims Scheme - risk free alternative
University of Melbourne
55
BOP Funding & Financial Market Development
• If less bank funding of current account deficit
– More portfolio and FDI investment inflow
• Including govt debt purchases
• Retained earnings of foreign owned cos.
– One of the largest net FDI recipients
• Is imputation a disincentive to offshore expansion?
• Unlike domestic firms, foreign owned firms have tax
incentives for debt financing
– Either in domestic or offshore capital markets
University of Melbourne
56
Some Policy Issues: Financing Inadequacies
• Popular concerns (but not “evidence based”)
– SME and venture capital
– Infrastructure
– Real estate investment bias
– Retirement savings products
– Equity bias
– Banking competition, profits, systemic risk
– Corporate bond market absence
– “Too much finance”
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Some Policy Issues: regulation and risk bearing
• What perimeter for prudential regulation?
• Currently relative few assets held by nonprudentially regulated financial institutions
– Overseas interest in “ring fencing”
• But: Basel 3 should increase supply of capital
market assets; demand from SMSF growth;
incentives for advisers, product creators
• Investor protection increasingly problematic area
– direct investments (eg shares, bonds), MIS, financial
firm debentures
• Reliance on Education, Advice, Disclosure has
been found wanting
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Issues for Mutual ADIs
• Competition for household savings
– Profitability and internal capital generation
• Contingent capital / Mutual Equity Interests
– Demutualisation incentives
• Financial Claims Scheme (Deposit Insurance)
– Distortions (Cap size), Funding
• Personal loan markets
– Credit reporting, alternative lenders
• Mortgage markets
– Securitisation, new lenders / originators
• Financial advice, transactions services
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Conclusion
• Structural changes in financial sector inevitable
– Patterns of financial flows have changed
– Competitive advantages have changed
– Regulation has changed
• Real sector adjustments also relevant
– Industry sector changes – potentially different financing
requirements (including SMEs / micro-businesses)
– Demography – demand for financial products
– Income distribution – implications of open economy
and low cost international competition for “low skilled”
employees
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Conclusion: Mutual ADI future
• What competitive advantages for mutual ADIs?
• Financial sector functions are: overcoming information
problems, reducing transactions costs, providing
diversification and risk management services,
transferring financial resources between individuals
(lending / borrowing) and over time (wealth
management), enabling payments
• Technology has radically changed information flows,
transactions costs, creation of alternative financial
products and markets etc.
• Maybe few advantages in the technical “production
process” of financial services and products
• But ultimately dealing with individuals and their
behavioral biases – does mutuality / customer owned
banking provide an advantage and if so, how?
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