Transcript Green New Deal

Green economy in Europe: A real Green New Deal or just
a New Green Dream?
Eva Cudlínová, Jan Vávra, Miloslav Lapka
Faculty of Economics,
University of South Bohemia in České
Budějovice Czech Republic
Green New Deal (GND)
November 12, 2008 – the leaders of the G20 countries gather in Washington for a
special summit on the global financial crisis
Gary Gardner and Michael Renner, senior researchers with the environmental
research organization Worldwatch Institute, issued a detailed proposal "Global
Green Deal."
"The challenge is not merely to kick start the global economy, but to do so in a
way that creates jobs and stabilizes climate, increases food output using less water
and pesticides, and generates prosperity with greater equality of incomes," write
Gardner and Renner.
Green New Deal – a deliberate echo of the energizing vision of
President Franklin Roosevelt during the Great Depression of the
1930s (based on J. M. Keynes’ idea – government supports demand).
Green New Deal = Green economy and Green growth based
on Green technology and investment
Sustainable
development
CRITIQUE OF GREEN ECONOMY
Mistrust of the entire notion of a green
economy, evidenced by terms like
GREEN WASHING and the decline in
belief regarding climate change.
From the perspective of the planet’s poorest and the organizations working with
them, the green economy doesn’t represent opportunity.
IT REPRESENTS A FRIENDLIER FACE OF A GLOBAL CAPITALIST ECONOMY THAT HAS
EXPLOITED THEY AND THEIR NATURAL RESOURCES FOR DECADES.
People’s Summit Rio+20, which concluded that there was a need to completely rewrite
the green economy movement towards the original goals of an Earth Summit
Research question and methods
How is the concept of Green growth applied in EU and how can it
be measured?
Methods
Statistical analysis of selected national socio-economic and
environmental indicators.
• Based on definitions and political documents
• Inspired by existing set of indicators (e.g. OECD, Global
Green Economy Index)
Limitations caused by data availability and comparability
• Different priorities of states
• Definition of resource efficiency
Example of existing Green growth or Green economy
indicators
As part of its Green Growth Strategy, the OECD has developed a
conceptual framework and indicators that help governments monitor
progress towards green growth.
Is Green growth really green? Our approach
Our measurement of Green growth is based on Green economy
Green economy can refer to sectors (e.g. energy), topics (e.g. pollution), principles (e.g.
polluter pays) or policies (e.g. economic instruments).
Green economy = Green pathway into 21st century
Characteristics
•
•
•
•
Green technology
Renewable energy
Green jobs
Green investments
Results (solving of the problems)
Green growth
Economic growth
Climate changes
Poverty green jobs
We selected some of direct and indirect parameters that express the main
characteristics and results of green economy.
Selected indicators
Explanation of indicators
Measured indicators
•
Economic growth – one of ultimate goals of
Green growth
•
GDP per capita PPP in Euro (2007, 2013)
•
New jobs – creation of new Green jobs
(unemployment is more general indicator)
•
Unemployment in % of labour force (2007, 2013)
•
Productivity of economy – partial result of Green
investments and Green tecnology – main
characteristics of Green economy
•
Resource productivity in Euro per kg of raw
material (2007, 2012)
•
Green investment and Green technology –
characteristic of Green economy
•
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D in % of GDP
(2007, 2011)
•
Renewable energy – characteristics of Green
economy
•
Share of renewable energy in gross final energy
consumption in % (2007, 2012)
•
Production of CO2 represents the results of
Green economy in terms of climate changes
(result of Green investments and Green
technology)
•
Carbon footprint in tons of CO2 per capita (2007,
2011)
EU28 countries
Two periods: pre-economic downturn (2007)
and recent (2011-13).
Source: Eurostat
Changes since 2007
Factor loadings
GDP_ch
Unempl_ch
Product_ch
R&Dexp_ch
Renew_ch
Carbon_ch
GDP_ch Unempl_ch
1
-0,47*
1
-0,61**
0,52**
-0,04
-0,17
0,13
0,19
0,68**
-0,33
Prod_ch
R&D_ch Renew_ch Carb_ch
Component 1:
Economy
1
-0,04
-0,14
-0,57**
1
0,20
0,26
1
0,20
PCA, rotation Varimax, KMO=0,578, Bartlett‘s
X2=487,260, df=15, p=0,000.
1
GDP ch.
0,856
Unemployment
ch.
-0,746
Productivity
change
-0,834
Carbon
footprint
change
0,761
Component 2:
Innovation
0,388
R&D exp.
change
0,636
Renewables
change
0,842
Eigenvalue
2,570
1,328
% of variance
42,83
22,14
Major findings
Major trends
• Overall increase: renewable energy sources
• Most often increase: unemployment, productivity, R&D expenditures;
decrease of carbon footprint
• Both trends: GDP
Changes 2007-2012
Productivity ↓
Countries’ classification
• Economic (Germany, Poland, Romania X Greece, Spain, Ireland)
• Innovation (Estonia, Slovenia, Denmark X Luxembourg, UK)
– Environmental aspect is problematic
http://www.clipartbest.com/cliparts/LiK/aK6/LiKaK6dia.jpeg
• GDP↑ CO2↑ Unemployment↓
• R&Dexp ↑ Renewables↑ CO2↑
Discussion, problems and further research
General questions
• Is “growth” part of Green growth overriding its environmental and social
wannabe aspects?
• Was Green growth concept really applied?
• Is it just due to short timeframe?
Future research possibilities
• Longer timframe
• New indicators (quantity and quality – e.g. eco-innovation as part of R&D
expenditure, Green jobs)
• Geographical analysis x time series
• Detailed portraits of individual countries (declarations, politics, economy,
environment)
http://www.flippedphysics.net/Images/Problems.jpg
Problems
• Environmental aspect (CO2) in innovation axis
• More precise indicators needed
Thank you for your attention!
Eva Cudlínová
Jan Vávra
Miloslav Lapka
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Faculty of Economics
University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice
Czech Republic
http://international.ef.jcu.cz/