Transcript CUBAN FOREIGN RELATIONS

A MACROPERSPECTIVE
CONTINUITY AND CHANGE
CONTINUITIES—entails broad themes or
concerns persisting over time.
CONTINUITY AND CHANGE
CHANGE—entails variables such as time,
place, and strategies/tactics involved in
promoting/protecting the continuities
CONTINUTIES
(promoting
and protecting)
• Economic Security
• International Stature (soft power)
• Effective Sovereignty
GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
Whatever potential might have existed for
dramatic policy transformations as Fidel moved
into the background has not, for the most part,
materialized. Raúl’s style is more low-key and
pragmatic than that of his charismatic brother,
but the substance of Cuba’s foreign affairs
agenda has not changed radically.
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(an overview of growth
plus diversification)
• Macroeconomic Performance (measured by GDP
growth rates)
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
• Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates)
• International Economic Relations
– Regional diversification of trade
Regional Trade Profile, 2012
W. Europe
18.3%
E. Europe 3.3%
Asia
12.4%
Americas
63.5%
Africa
2.5%
Regional Trade Profile, 2012
Americas (minus Venezuela)
34.3%
W. Europe, 33.2 %
Africa
4.5%
Asia
22.2%
E. Europe
5%.8
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
• Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates)
• International Economic Relations
– Regional diversification of trade
– Diversification of export product menu
Sugar = 76%
Nickel = 7%
Tourism = 4%
Services = 49% Tourism =19%
Nickel = 12%
(Sugar = 2%)
Services = 37% Other Merchan = 19% Tourism = 15% Nickel = 9%
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
• Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates)
• International Economic Relations
− Regional diversification of trade
– Diversification of export menu
– Diversification of trading partners
Prior to the 1990s, approximately 85% of Cuba’s foreign trade was with the USSR and Sovietdominated Eastern European countries. There was virtually no trade with Latin American
countries (except Mexico) and relatively small amounts with Western European nations.
Cuba’s Primary Trading Partners, 2006 and 2012
2006
Country
TOTAL (ranked)
Percent of
TOTAL (ranked)
2012
Thousands
of Pesos
Country
Thousands
Of Pesos
Venezuela 2,641,210
China
1,815,101
Spain
1,016,533
Canada
896,985
Netherlands 855,977
Venezuela
China
Spain
Canada
Netherlands
8,562,849
1,695,900
1,156,086
938,295
791,811
Venezuela
China
Spain
Canada
Netherlands
Venezuela
China
Spain
Canada
Netherlands
44.19
8.75
5.97
4.84
4.09
21.26
14.61
8.18
7.22
6.89
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
• Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates)
• International Economic Relations
−Regional diversification of trade
– Diversification of export menu
– Diversification of trading partners
– Special Venezuelan Relationship
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
• Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates)
• International Economic Relations
−Regional diversification of trade
– Diversification of export menu
– Diversification of trading partners
– Special Venezuelan Relationship
– Oil A potential “silver bullet”
RECENT RAULISTA INITIATIVES
• Expanding Brazilian relations
• New foreign investment law
INTERNATIONAL STATURE
• Policy Manifestations
– Developmental aid programs (especially education
and health care)
Cuban Overseas Medical Personnel
INTERNATIONAL STATURE
• Policy Manifestations
– Developmental aid programs (esp education and
health care)
– Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA)
INTERNATIONAL STATURE
• Policy Manifestations
– Developmental aid programs (esp education and
health care)
– Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA)
leadership
– CELAC (Latin American and Caribbean Economic
Community) leadership
EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY
• Litmus test—ability to frustrate Washington’s hostility
PASSED
• Enhanced economic security + Solid international
stature = strengthening of effective sovereignty
• Bottom line -- Cuba’s effective sovereignty does not
currently appear to be in any serious jeopardy
CONCLUSION
THANK YOU VERY MUCH