Transcript TP4-BRICS2016x

Term paper 4 - 2016
BRICS in the global economic wall...
- a business environment analysis of
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
Tyranny of acronyms
BIC (Brazil, India, China)
BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China)
------------------VISTA (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey
and Argentina)
CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt,
Turkey, and South Africa)
------------------MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey)
MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey)
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
BRIC since 2001/2003 => BRICS 2010
Salient features of the BRICS economies
GDP
GDP
(PPP)
(USD
billion)
(USD
billion)
(per cent)
(USD)
Brazil
2,090
2,172
2.9
10,816
198
8,459
Russia
1,565
2,223
3.0
10,437
142
16,377
India
1,538
4,060
5.4
1,265
1,223
2,973
China
5,878
10,086
13.6
4,382
1,354
9,327
357
524
0.7
7,158
51
1,214
2010
South Africa
Share in world
GDP
PopulaGDP
per capita tion
Land
area
(th
(million) sqkm)
Source: Goldman Sachs 2011
…no longer that impressive…
Source: IMF 2014
Actual GDP growth in BRIC vs. projected GDP growth by Goldman Sachs 2003
Source: The Economist, 20 December 2013
IMF October 2014:
China Overtakes US as
World's Single Largest Economy(?!)
Yes: GDP PPP (purchasing power parities)
e.g. BigMac in USA = USD 4.80; China USD 2.73
-----No: nominal GDP and pc GDP
Assignment Term paper 5
• Provide a comprehensive business
environment analysis of the selected
country based on recent and current
developments (including brief references
to the historical legacy explaining current
developments) and a projection of future
developments to the year 2050.
Analysis based on factors discussed in
previous term papers:
• Demographic aspects
• Macroeconomic indicators
• FDI and trade (merchandise and services)
• International relations and political risk
ADDITION:
• Regional perspective (subnational macroregions) of
relevant factors (e.g. economic and demographic indicators)
• Gender issues
• Implications of climate change (environmental issues)
Proposed structure of paper
(total 30 pp):
Title page
Table of Contents (1 page)
2 pp Summary
Empirical text
Conclusions
References (max 3 pp)
Mandatory readings:
Goldman Sachs (2003) Global Economic Paper No 99: Dreaming with BRICs: The path to 2050
Goldman Sachs (2011) Global Economic Paper No 208: The BRICs 10 years on: Halfway through the great
transformation
Recommended readings:
Goldman Sachs (2004) Global Economic Paper No 118: The BRICs and Global Markets: Crude. Cars and Capital
Goldman Sachs (2005) Global Economic Paper No 134: How solid are the BRICs
Goldman Sachs (2005) The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs and the N-11 Post Crisis
Goldman Sachs (2007) BRICs and Beyond (relevant parts)
+ other reports papers published by Goldman Sachs on individual countries
OECD (2012 - 201X) Looking to 2060 (several reports on the theme)
PriceWaterhouseCoopers (2006; 2008; 2001; 2013; 2015) The World in 2050 (different subheadings)
HSBC (2012) The World in 2050 – from the top 30 to the top 100
Relevant reports from World Economic Forum
Joint publications from BRICS summit meetings (NB upcoming meeting mid October 2016!)
Presentation
24 October 2016
15-20 minutes presentation of
respective country followed by
discussion
Report: paper + soft copy by e-mail