Transcript SA Economic Indicators

SA Economic Indicators
Report updated:
April 2016
Next update:
May 2016
SA Economic Indicators
What is the SA Economic Indicators report?
• Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data
for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on
official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of
each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous
month.
How to read this report
• Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or
quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the
data source. These dates are indicative however, since the institutions may publish the data with a delay.
• Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months.
e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015
GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015)
• Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might
therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over
the same reporting periods.
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SA Economic Indicators
GDP Growth
6%
5.1%
4.8%
4.6% 4.5%
5%
4.1%
3.7%
3.7%
4%
3.7%
3.1%
2.7%
2.5%
3%
2.1%
2.1%
1.8%
1.7%
2%
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7% 0.6%
0.5%
1%
-1%
-2%
-1.3%
-1.6%
Q4/2015
Q3/2015
Q2/2015
Q1/2015
Q4/2014
Q3/2014
Q2/2014
Q1/2014
Q4/2013
Q3/2013
Q2/2013
Q1/2013
Q4/2012
Q3/2012
Q2/2012
Q1/2012
Q4/2011
Q3/2011
Q2/2011
Q1/2011
Q4/2010
Q3/2010
Q2/2010
Q1/2010
Q4/2009
-3%
NOTE:
In Q3/2014 GDP was rebased to the year 2010 – all figures thus reflect the rebase.
SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Quarterly | Release date: Q1 – June, Q2 – September, Q3 – December, Q4 – March
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Economic Growth (GDP)
COMMENTARY
• GDP grew +0.6% (quarter-on-quarter) in Q4/2015
• Year-on-year growth measured +0.6%
• Nominal GDP for Q4 was R1,027bn (R20bn more than Q3/2015)
• Key drivers of growth in Q4:
– General government services (+1.0% increase)
– Finance, real estate and business services (+1.9% increase)
– Wholesale, retail and motor trade; catering and accommodation industry (+2.8% increase)
• Economic growth will be weak over the coming months due to:
– High unemployment rate
– Weak leadership
– The worst drought in two decades contracting agricultural output
– Slowing growth in emerging Asia alongside reduced exports and declining exchange rate – resulting in reduced export
demand from SA
– Weakening exchange rate
– Declining commodity prices and strengthening US dollar
– Under-investment
– Downward revision of global growth forecast
“South Africa has not been immune to these challenges.” – Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South Africa Reserve Bank
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Maryla Masojada
|
Head Analyst
Tarryn Butler
|
Senior Retail Analyst
Tabang Mbenge
|
Junior Retail Analyst