Transcript Wood market in CEEC

Aspects of Wood Market
in Central and Eastern
Europe
Leonard Padureanu
Florian Borlea
Sabin Bratu
Ionut Gondos
Poiana Brasov, 24-27 March 2003
Forest sector importance in CEEC
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The wood is an important resource in
the countries in transition from Central
and Eastern Europe (CEEC)
Forest covers a large area in CEEC ,
varying around 32%
Forest sector contribution to GDP is
up to 5%
CEEC forest sector outlook
approach
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CEEC main wood and wood products
market follows the demand and requires of
EU economies
CEEC will be involved in EU inlargement
in 2004; 2007; 2012
CEEC forest resources will be reffered in
the context of EU enlargement
Difficult marketing studies due to poor
available data
CEEC forest resources outlook
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The forest cover in CEEC varies around
32% of total land area (54,5% in Slovenia
and 19,9% in Hungary)
The total forest area of the CEEC countries
exceeds 33 million hectares which could be
25% of the EU forest area after
enlargement
The growing stock is 26.000 million cm
which could be 47% of the EU after
enlargement
Forest cover in CEEC
60
50
40
% 30
20
10
0
Countries
Slovenia
Estonia
Latvia
Bosnia Herzegov.
Slovakia
Albania
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Croatia
Lithuania
Poland
Serbia&Muntenegro
Romania
Hungary
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Total removals in 2000 in CEEC, of
120 millions cu.m., which means 32%
of EU after enlargement
The annual wood harvest in the CEEC
countries is between 60% and 70% of
the total increment
The ownership pattern includes over
30% private forests (70% in Slovenia
and 17% in Poland)
Expectations for 2000-2010
(data delivered by EFSOS)
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The forest area available for wood supply
could decrease about 400,000 hectares due
to:
 Still bad infrastructure of forest
transport
 Former available forest areas turned
into protected areas in years to come
The growing stock per ha will increase by
2.5%
The annual wood harvest will increase to
80% of the increment
Forecast of the CEEC economic
growth
Economic analysis approach:

The base case scenario is chosen, which
means:
Steady improvement of the economic policies
 Efficient absorption of technology
 Favourable demographic trends
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The real convergence theory that means the
economic development gap related to the EU
countries decreases by an average of 2%
annually
Average growth rate of GDP
volume in 2000-2010
8
7
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Estonia
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Poland
Romania
Latvia
Croatia
Lithuania
Serbia and Muntenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6
5
%4
3
2
1
0
Countries
Average growth rate of GDP per
capita in 2000-2010
8
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Estonia
Romania
Croatia
Bulgaria
Serbia and Muntenegro
Lithuania
Latvia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7
6
5
%4
3
2
1
0
Countries
Round wood market in CEEC
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Starting 1994, the production of
roundwood in CEEC increased steadley
The export of round wood from CEEC
increased in 2000 despite the over supply
given by windthrow volumes in Western
Europe
In 1996-1999, significant exports of
roundwood were going from CEEC to the
EU/EFTA subregion, corresponding to
8,5% of the global industrial roundwood
trade
Ths cm
Round wood in CEEC
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Production
Consumption
Import
Export
1994
2001
2005
Year
2010
Fire wood consumption and
trade evolution
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A considerable part of the CEEC population is
still using the fire wood as the main energy
source
The consumption is decreasing as other energy
sources became available
An important part of the former fire wood is
moved to the fibreboard (MDF) and orientedstructure composites (OSD, LSL, etc.) industry
There is not a real decrease of the fire wood
production but a move to the industrial use of this
assortment
Firewood in CEEC
16,000
Ths cm
14,000
12,000
10,000
Production
Consumption
Import
Export
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1994
2001
2005
Years
2010
Waste management projects in
CEEC
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Czech Republic Generalized Baseline
and Monitoring Method, District Heating
Czech Republic Generalized Baseline
and Monitoring Method, Building EE
Latvia-Liepaja Solid Waste Management
Project - a self-sustaining modern waste
management system for city and region
of Liepaja
Ths cm
Sawn wood in CEEC
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Production
Consumption
Import
Export
1994
2001
2005
Years
2010
Certified forests in CEEC (ha)
Country
Czech Republic
FSC
10.441
PEFC
1.809.012
TOTAL
1.819.453
Croatia
1.998.480
1.998.480
Estonia
1.063,517
1.063.517
188.687
188.687
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
1.685.932
17.323
1.703.255
66.141
66.141
5.980.181
5.980.181
Romania
31.611
31.611
Slovakia
48.159
48.159
TOTAL
11.073.149
Poland
1.826.335
12.899.484
Main challenges
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The low level of domestic consumption
 Economic reasons
 Cultural reasons
 Mentality:quality wood products are “export
products”
Missing market information
Inadequate marketing measures
Forest restitution/private forestry effects
Necessary measures
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Wood promotion campaign
Wood industry strategies to
develop a domestic market
New markets:
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Wood energy
Wood houses
EU influences on CEEC
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Market effects:
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Demand for forest products
standardization
Forest certification extension
More competitive forest
products on the market
CEEC influences on EU
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Increasing flows of forest products
from CEEC to EU
Possible price changes on EU wood
market
The potential to supply all the
domestic deficit of EU with the forest
products coming from CEEC
The sustainable development of the
wood market in the CEEC on long
term should be considered only
connected to the EU market evolution
&
a wise promotion strategy
of the sound use of wood.