Transcript Mexico, Mexican Chamber of the Construction Industry

STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY
México
Washington D.C. United States
February, 2016
IHA Secretariat
STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México)
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43 Delegations
+18 Offices
10,800 member
companies
STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México)
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2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS:
Starts
Percentages
Total housing register
Single Family
Multifamily
351,129
Unifamiliar (41.3%)
145,149
DUPLEX (17.3%)
60,626
Multifamiliar Horizontal
(12.8%)
44,787
Multifamiliar Vertical (28.2%)
99,055
Triplex (0.4%)
Gross Domestic Product
(GDP): 2015
GDP Growth
Numbers
1,512
USD$ 2.2 trillions *
% Real Change
3Q 2015 /3Q 2014: 2.51%
Prepared by Management of Housing and Urban Development, CMIC.
* Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)
STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México)
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2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS:
Starts
GDP Per Capita: 2015
Percentages
Total population:
121,087,280
Economic
Popular
House Price Index
(3Q Quarter)
Traditional
Medium
Residential & Plus
Consumer Price Index
Unemployment
0.4% month (2.1% year)
4.4%
Prepared by Management of Housing and Urban Development, CMIC.
* Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)
Numbers
$18,335 USD *
Up to 19,010 USD
From 19,011 USD
to 32,221 USD
From 32,222 USD
to 56,387 USD
From 56,388 USD
to120,832 USD
From120,833 USD to
241,665 USD
December, 2015
December, 2015
STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México)
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2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS:
Starts
Percentages
Home Mortgage Interest
Rate
Home Ownership Rate.
Average annual population
growth.
2005-2015
Numbers
10.15%
Simple Average Banxico
60.4%
1.4%
Prepared by Management of Housing and Urban Development, CMIC.
Y-Y
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3- ECONOMIC AND/OR POLITICAL CONDITIONS:
Factor
Expectations earlier 2015
At the end of 2015
(Real)
GDP Growth
3.8%
2.5%
Private Consumer
Growth
3.5%
3.2%
Exchange Rate
Exports Growth
Oil Price
15 pesos per dollar
17.2 pesos per dollar
6.2%
79 dollars per barrel
Public Investment
USD$65,762 millions
Prepared by Management of Housing and Urban Development, CMIC.
(14.6%)
3.2%
37.04 dollars per barrel
USD$57,941 millions
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Projections: Gross Domestic Product
(Real annual % variation)
4.0
3.0
2.1
2.0
2.5 2.5
3.1
2.8
2.9
3.2 3.3
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.3
1.9
1.4
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Estimate
-2.0
-3.0
National
-4.0
-5.0
Construction
-4.7
-6.0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Centro de Estudios Economicos del Sector de la Construcción (CEESCO ) of CMIC with data from International Monetary Fund (IMF)
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3-
HOW HAVE ECONOMIC AND/OR POLITICAL CONDITIONS CHANGED SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF 2015?
Mexico has faced a complex global environment over the last year, characterized by a rise in global financial market volatility and the
collapse of oil prices. Nonetheless, the economy has continued to grow at a moderate pace, and capital outflow pressures have been
limited. The flexible exchange rate has helped the economy adjust to external shocks, while inflation has remained low and stable.
The Mexican peso has depreciated by 16 percent in real effective terms in the last twelve months. Mexico is implementing a broad
range of structural reforms, which should help lift potential growth over the medium term.
Construction to grew by 2.5 percent in 2015. Construction activity has moderated after a strong rebound in the second half of last
year. Manufacturing and services remain the main driver of growth, although weaker-than-expected U.S. demand affected
manufacturing exports in early 2015. A fall in domestic oil production continues to be a drag on growth. Real GDP growth is expected
to accelerate modestly to 2.5 percent in 2016, supported by strengthening external demand. Lower electricity prices and the real
depreciation of the peso should boost Mexico’s manufacturing production and exports, with positive spillovers to domestic demand.
4- HOW HAVE THESE AND RELATED INSTANCES OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET
TURBULENCE, INCLUDING THE SLUMP IN COMMODITY PRICES, PARTICULARLY OIL, IMPACTED
YOUR HOUSING MARKET?
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Mexico faced a complex global environment last year. International oil prices declined by more than 50 percent
since mid-2014. The drop in oil prices has had a limited impact on the current account as Mexico has a broadly
balanced trade in hydrocarbons. However, it increased the fiscal consolidation burden and might affect prospects
for private investment in the oil sector in the medium term. In addition, emerging market asset prices were hit by a
rise in global financial volatility and a portfolio shift away from emerging markets. As a consequence, the Mexican
peso has depreciated sharply against the US dollar since mid-2014, prompting the Foreign Exchange Commission
to put in place a rules-based foreign exchange intervention program. Despite the increase in asset price volatility,
economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, and inflation remains low and stable.
In the context of high financial market volatility, policies in Mexico remain focused on maintaining strong
fundamentals and safeguarding financial stability. The flexible exchange rate has helped the economy adjust to
external shocks. The authorities have reiterated their commitment to reduce public sector deficits and stabilize
public debt. Continued implementation of a broad range of structural reforms would help lift potential growth over
the medium term.
5- IF THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DYNAMICS DESCRIBED ABOVE HAVE IMPACTED YOUR
MARKET, DO YOU EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO NORMALIZE BY YEAR END?
Yes__________
No______X__
6- IF YOUR MARKET HAS BEEN IMMUNE TO THESE DYNAMICS TO DATE, DO YOU EXPECT
TO SEE AN IMPACT ON YOUR HOUSING MARKET BEFORE THE YEAR IS OVER?
Yes___________
No___X_____
Information Sources (México)
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THANK YOU.
IHA Secretariat