Transcript 对亚洲的影响

Understanding
Global Economic Crisis:
理解国际经济危机：
Issues for Unions
工会所面临的问题
• Some banks & mortgage cos. in US advanced housing
loans to people - Should this have caused global economic
crisis & affected workers in the rest of the world?
美国的一些银行和抵押贷款公司发放住房贷款——这导致了
全球经济危机并且影响到了世界其他地方的工人吗？
• Is the crisis due to bad loans? Or do the roots of crisis lie
deeper?
危机是由于坏账引起的？还是有更深层的根源？
What triggered the crisis?
导致危机的原因是什么？
• Home loan rates in US raised in 2007  led to loan
defaults  collapse of US housing market  collapse of
banks & other financial institutions that had invested in the
housing & credit card debt backed securities.
美国住房贷款利率在2007年上调导致许多人无力
偿还贷款美国住房市场的崩溃以住房贷款、信
用卡贷款为支柱的银行及其他金融机构倒闭
Why did this happen? 为什么会爆发危
机？
• lack of regulation of financial markets & institutions
金融市场和金融机构缺乏监管
• loose money policies of Federal Bank of US
美国联邦银行宽松的货币政策
• Greed & speculation in financial markets
金融市场的贪婪和投机
• neo-liberal economic policies & agenda
新自由主义经济政策和主张
Background of the crisis - 危机的背景
• US Internet stocks crash in 2001-02 – losses in trillions of
$$$ - to counter threat of recession, prime interest rate
lowered to 1% in 2003 - 2001-2002年美国网络股票危机—
—造成数万亿美元的损失——为防止经济衰退，银行基本利
率在2003年调低到了1%。
• Easy money availability set off housing market boom &
speculation - 宽松的信贷条件为房地产市场带来了繁荣,也
带来了投机
• Banks & mortgage companies lower lending standards &
encourage house owners to refinance their loans, including
to people who could not normally afford them
银行和抵押贷款公司降低贷款标准，鼓励人们为自己的贷款
再贷款，甚至包括那些根本不可能支付贷款的人们。
Background of the crisis - 危机的背景
• mortgage cos. & banks had an interest in giving loans since
these loans were seen assets and could be ‘securitized’ and
sold to other banks & financial institutions as collateralized
debt obligations (CDOs), who in turn bundled these CDOs
into giant securities and sold it to others & so on – the value
of these securities now runs into trillions (no one has any
exact idea)
抵押贷款公司和银行从发放贷款中获益，因为这些贷款被视
为资产，可以“证券化”，也可以以担保债权凭证的形式卖
给其他银行和金融机构，这些银行和金融机构又可以将这些
担保债权凭证捆绑为巨额证券，将其再次出售，以此类推—
—这些证券的价值越滚越大，最后变成了数万亿（而没有人
对此有真正的概念）。
Background of the crisis – 危机的背
景
• To cover risk of default on mortgages, the holders of CDOs
bought insurance (credit default swaps) – which generated
huge profits for insuring companies till loan defaults &
bankruptcies started
为掩盖抵押贷款无力偿还的风险，担保债权凭证的持有者购
买了保险（信贷违约掉期）——这在信贷违约和银行破产之
前为保险公司创造了巨额利润。
• CDS market is said to be as big as $45 trillion – both CDOs
& CDS market is not regulated by govt.
信贷违约掉期市场据称有45万亿美元之大——信贷违约掉期
和担保债券凭证市场都不受政府监管。
What happened? - 发生了什么？
US housing interest rates raised in 2007  loans defaults
美国住房贷款利率在2007年上调贷款违约
 house prices drop & starts off housing market crash
房地产价格下降，房地产市场开始崩溃
 value of housing backed securities become worthless
以房地产为支柱的证券变得不值钱
 banks & insurance Cos. fail  liquidity crunch  real economy faces
credit squeeze  consumption, building activity & cash flows reduce
银行和保险公司倒闭流动性危机实体经济面临信贷紧缩
消费、建设活动和现金流减少
 US recession + globalization  global troubles
美国经济衰退+全球化全球危机
Costs of Rescuing Culprits
为了拯救罪人所花费的代价
• $4.1 trillion committed by US & European Govts (in 2008) to
help banks & financial institutions - 美国和欧洲政府2008年
承诺投入4.1万亿美元帮助银行和金融机构
•
•
•
•
For instance: 例如
Insurance Co. AIG: $152.5 billion (as of Nov’08)
保险公司美国国际集团（AIG）：1525亿美元（至2008年11
月）
Mortgage lenders Fannie Mae & Freddy Mac: $200 billion
抵押贷款公司房利美和房地美：2000亿美元
US FDIC has so far spent $13.2 billion to cover 19 failed
banks. 美国联邦储蓄保险公司资金已花费132亿美元来帮助
19家处于困境的银行
UBS bank bailout by Swiss Govt: $60 billion
瑞士联合银行（UBS）受到瑞士政府的拯救：600亿美元
Impact on Asia - 对亚洲的影响
Outflow of capital from Asia (>100 billion $$$ in 2008) 
stock markets crash & credit squeeze  rising costs of
borrowings  investments slow down  greater demand
for FOREX depreciates national currencies  increases the
costs of imports & foreign debt servicing
资本从亚洲撤离（2008年超过1000亿美元） 股票
市场崩溃，信贷紧缩贷款成本上涨投资减速
外汇需求增加，本国货币贬值进口和举外债成本
增加
Impact on Asia - 对亚洲的影响
• Recession in Western markets  exports slow down 
decline in foreign exchange earnings  current account
deficit  pressure on national currencies
西方市场的衰退出口减少外汇收入降低经常
账户赤字为本国货币带来压力
• Remittances, foreign aid, govt revenue go down
国外汇款、外国援助、政府财政收入降低
 affects growth prospects, domestic investments,
infrastructure, employment & social welfare of people
 影响经济增长前景、国内投资、基础设施建设、就业和社会
福利
Impact on Workers - 对工人的影响
• Job losses in export & domestic industries 出口和国内产业就业机会减少
• Pensions - 养老金
• Implications for collective agreements - 对集体协议的影响
• Impact on Migrant workers - 对移民工的影响
• Impact on families - education of children, nutrition, women,
rise in informal economy,
对家庭的影响——子女教育、营养、妇女、非正规经济部门
扩大
• Impact of decline in social welfare budgets of Govts
政府社会福利预算减少带来的影响
Possible Impact according to ILO
国际劳工组织预测……
• Increase in unemployment by over 50 million in 2009
2009年失业人口将超过5000万
• About 200 million people into extreme poverty, majority in
developing countries
约有2亿人口陷入极度贫困，大多数在发展中国家
• Working poor (earning below US$2 per person, per day) can
go up to 1.4 billion (45% of the world’s employed)
贫困工人（每人每天收入不到2美元）数量可能会上升到14
亿（全世界就业人口的45%）
• Conditions of self employed & workers in informal
employment much worse
个体户和非正规就业工人的状况更加糟糕
What are the root causes of the global
economic crisis?
全球经济危机的根源是什么？
The root causes
• Crisis of over production/over capacity & erosion of
profitability (due to social inequalities that limit purchasing
powers) - 生产过剩/生产量过剩以及利润降低的危机（由于
社会不公平限制了购买力）
• Need for constantly increasing profits requires capital to
keep looking for new markets – for cheap labour, cheap
sources of raw materials, new markets to invest & sell
为了不断增加利润，资本必须不断地寻找新市场——寻找廉
价劳动力、廉价原材料以及投资和销售的新市场
lets look at post war economic history of the world!
让我们来看看战后世界经济的历史！
1945 -1970s - 1945-1970年代
• Period of post war reconstruction, rapid growth, Keynesian
State policies  state controls over markets, strong fiscal &
monetary policies to minimize inflation, recession, high real
wages to stimulate & maintain demand (+ strong unions)
战后重建期，经济迅速增长，凯恩斯国家调控政策国家对
市场的控制、采取有力的财政和货币政策减少通货膨胀、防
止衰退、制定较高的实际工资水平刺激并维持需求（+强大的
工会）
• This golden period came to end in 1970s – period of
stagflation (low growth + inflation) - 黄金发展期在70年代告
一段落——之后是滞涨期（低增长+通货膨胀）
1945 -1970s - 1945-1970年代
low growth + inflation happened due to 
低增长 + 通货膨胀之所以发生，是因为
increased global competition, tremendous rise in productive
capacities (Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil),
inequalities within & between countries that limited the
purchasing powers & demand, reducing profitability – on top
of this process came oil price shocks
全球竞争加剧、生产力大幅提升（德国、日本、台湾、韩国、
巴西），国与国之间的不平等限制了购买力和需求、减少了
利润率——最重要的是石油价格的冲击
Policies Post 1970s - 70年代后的政策
to promote economic growth & profits, the
following policy prescriptions were put forward:
为了推动经济增长、提高利润，提出了如下
政策处方：
• Neo-liberal restructuring of economies
新自由主义经济结构调整
• Globalization - 全球化
• Financialization - 金融化
Neo-liberal Restructuring
新自由主义经济结构调整
• Reaganism & Thatcherism & structural adjustment (1980s)
里根、撒切尔、结构调整（80年代）
• Aim: to remove capital from the control of state
目标：资本脱离国家的掌控
- redistribute incomes towards the rich on the theory that
rich invest & that will promote economic growth
重新调整收入分配政策，向有钱人倾斜，认为有钱人会拿
钱投资，从而促进经济增长
• Did it work? these policies restricted demand & economic
growth. - 效果怎样？这些政策限制了需求和经济增长。
Global Economic Growth
全球经济增长
Source: Wall Street Meltdown Primer – by Walden Bello, published on Friday, Sept 26, 2008 by Foreign
Policy in Focus - 来源：《华尔街垮台初级读本》，Walden Bello，“外交政策热点”,2008年9月26日。
…then came Globalization
……然后发生了全球化
• Integration of China, India, Brazil, Russia, & many other
emerging market economies – as production centres,
markets, sources of cheap labour, raw materials
中国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯及其他新兴市场经济国家融入全
球化，成为制造中心、市场、廉价劳动力和原材料来源
• Almost 40-50% of the profits of US corporations come from
their operations & sales abroad now, especially in China.
• But - Globalization increases the problem of over-capacity,
which depresses prices & profits
但是——全球化恶化了生产过剩问题，使得价格和利润不断
下降
Rise of Financialization 金融化的兴起
• Declining profits in industry & agriculture gave spurt to
financial sector investments
工农业利润的减少引起了金融行业投资狂潮
• Financial sector creates profits but it doesn’t create new
value
金融业创造了利润却没有创造新的价值
• In this system profits depend on taking advantage of price
deviation from the real value and selling before the reality
enforces ‘correction’.
在该体系下，利润依赖于利用不同于实际价值的价
格以及在现实“修正”价格之前出售商品。
Financialization of Economy
经济的金融化
• Growth of private equity capital/hedge funds and their
operations in mfg sector
私募基金/对冲基金的发展及其运作
• Growth of trading in derivatives (Value credit derivatives
market is estimated at more than 8 times the global GDP)
金融衍生品的发展（预计价值信用衍生品市场超过了全球
GDP的8倍）
• Even mfg companies play markets rather than produce
(Ex GE, GM, Porsche) – even social security funds
甚至制造业企业也开始玩市场游戏，而不去生产了（例如通
用电器、通用汽车、保时捷）——连社会保障基金也不例外
Volatility of financial sector
金融业的不稳定性
Financial crises since capital markets were deregulated in
the 1980s - 自从上世纪80年代资本市场放松管制、自由化以
来的金融危机
- Japan in 1989-91 - 1989-91年 日本
- Finland, Italy, UK, Sweden in 1992 – 1992年 芬兰、意大利、
英国、瑞典
- Mexican financial crisis 1994-95 - 1994-95年 墨西哥金融危机
- Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98 - 1997-98年 亚洲金融危机
- Russian Fin Crisis in 1998 - 1998年 俄罗斯金融危机
- Argentine collapse in 2001-02 - 2001-02年 阿根廷金融危机
- US technology stocks crash in 2000-01 - 2000-01年 美国技
术股危机
Outline of 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
1997年亚洲金融危机概况
First - capital account & financial sector liberalization
首先，资本账户及金融业自由化

Then came - foreign funds (seeking quick & high returns)
其次，外国资金涌入（寻求快速、高额回报）

over investment in real estate & stock markets - prices fall
房地产、股市投资过剩——价格下跌

About 100 billion flees out of the East Asian countries within
few weeks
1000亿美元资金在几周内逃离东亚国家

economic collapse  recession in the real economy
经济崩溃实体经济衰退
1997 Asian Financial Crisis
1997年亚洲金融危机概况
IMF bails out FIIs BUT opposed the national govts when they
wanted to impose controls & implement measures that US,
Europe & other countries are doing today.
国际货币基金组织拯救了外国机构投资者，但是反对
各国政府采取如今美国、欧洲和其他国家正在采取
的调控调控措施。
So, what needs to be done?
那么，我们需要做些什么？
What is Capital saying? 资本家说什么？
• Create of Global Financial Regulatory Coordinating Council
(comprised of private banks, IMF, WB) 建立全球金融监管协
调委员会（包含私有银行、国际货币基金组织、世界银行）
• Greater representation to some developing countries in IMF
& other multilateral organizations. 增加发展中国家在国际货
币基金组织和其他跨国组织中的代表
• (but) emergency action should not provide the basis for a
permanent larger role for the public in the international
financial system （然而）应急行动并不表示公众可以长期发
挥对国际金融体系的重要作用
- Institute of International Finance (financial sector’s global lobby organization)
国际金融研究所（金融业的全球游说机构）
Regulating Financial Markets
对金融市场进行监管
• what should be the objectives of International financial
markets ? 国际金融市场的目标应该是什么？
- expand the casino in more orderly fashion OR to channel
resources into real economy? - 更有序地扩大赌场 还是
将资源导向实体经济？
• Policies to eliminate tax havens, tax evasion & transfer
pricing - 采取政策减少避税港、防止逃税漏税和转移
定价
• Currency transaction tax- 现金交易税
ILO Approach - 国际劳工组织的方案
Tripartite dialogue with employers & workers organizations should play a key role in addressing the economic crisis,
and in developing policy responses at national level.
同雇主和工人组织开展三方对话——三方对话应该在解决经
济危机、制定国别对策方面发挥主要作用
Pre-condition for effective social dialogue: Respect for
Freedom of Association & Right to Collective Bargaining
要想让社会对话真正发挥作用：就要尊重结社自由和集体谈
判权利
ILO’s policy prescriptions
国际劳工组织的政策处方
• Focus resources on promotion of domestic employment &
social protection while ensuring fundamental rights at work
& social dialogue to address the problems
集中资源促进国内就业和社会保护，同时保证工作
中的基本权利，通过对话解决问题
• Ensure credit for domestic industry, trade & investment
保证国内产业、贸易和投资的信贷
• Stimulate dom. demand thru public & private exp & invst.
通过公共部门和私营部门的出口和投资，刺激内需
ILO’s policy prescriptions
国际劳工组织的政策处方
• Special emp. & soc. protection measures for workers out of
jobs - 为失业工人采取特殊的就业和社会保护措施
• Support productive small enterprises & cooperatives as also
promote green jobs - 支持高效的小型企业和合作社，
推广绿色工作
• Maintain development aid & provide additional credit lines to
developing countries - 维持发展援助并且为发展中国家
提供更多的信贷途径
• Regulate finance capital - 监管金融资本
Export dependence of Asia
亚洲对出口的依赖
• Almost 60% of final demand for Asian goods comes from
developed countries.
亚洲商品最终需求的60%来自发达国家。
• Exports account for about 47% of developing Asia’s output
出口占亚洲发展中国家产量的47%。
• Ex: Exports account for as much as 2/3rds of GDP in Hong
Kong & Singapore, almost 50% output of Malaysia &
Thailand and 1/3rd for South Korea & Taiwan.
例如：出口占香港和新加波GDP总额的2/3，马来西亚和泰国
的50%，韩国和台湾的1/3.
At least one lesson for Asia
对亚洲来说至少是一场教训
• The export-led model has it limitations
出口导向模式有其局限性
• Economic & social stability at home domestic economy led
growth - Asian countries cannot depend solely on western
markets.
国内经济和社会稳定会带来增长——亚洲国家不能只依赖于
西方市场
“The current recovery plans are necessary, but insufficient.
It is not enough to inject money into the economy, we need
to change its principles to make sure it generates social
justice, development for all, equity, stability and long-term
prosperity,” – says international labour movement.
“现在的恢复计划是必要的，但是不充分。仅仅将资金注入
经济是不够的，我们还需要改变经济原则，使之带来社会正
义、所有人共享的发展、平等、稳定和长期繁荣，”
——国际工会运动如是说。
Annexes - 附录
Asia is expected to grow by just 2.7%, a fraction of the 9%
regional growth in 2007 – IMF.
... a look at some important Asian economies
预计亚洲经济在2009年的增长率仅为2.7%，是2007年该区
域增长率的9%——国际货币基金组织
Source: Financial Times, Asia and the crisis: Unlucky numbers By David
Pilling, February 9 2009
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65599c38-f6e1-11dd-8a1f-0000779fd2ac.html
来源：金融时报，David Pilling《亚洲及危机：不幸运的数字》，2009年2月9
日 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65599c38-f6e1-11dd-8a1f-0000779fd2ac.html
Japan - 日本
• Japan hit hard – economy may contract by 4% in 2009 – mainly
due to collapse of exports, which fell 35 per cent in December &
by 46% in January 2009 - 日本受到了强烈冲击——2009年经济可
能会萎缩4%——主要由于出口的崩溃，出口在2008年12月下降了
35%，2009年1月下降了46%。
• Part-time & temp. workers (which make up 1/3rd of the workforce)
fired on a large scale. Govt says about 125,000 irregular
employees in manufacturing will lose their jobs by March 2009.
Others say almost 400,000. The plight of these unemployed &
homeless “dispatch workers’ has shocked many & is now a major
political issue. 兼职工和临时工（占工作人口总数的1/3）被大量解
雇。政府预计到2009年3月制造业约有125000名非正规工人下岗
。而其他来源表明这个数字可能接近40万。这些无家可归的失业
“派遣工”的困境震惊了许多人，并且成为了主要政治问题。
China - 中国
• China plans to invest billions ($585bn) into domestic economy –
at 6-7% growth, it is a slow down compared to 13% growth in
2007. China’s economic slowdown spells big trouble for the rest
of Asian countries which rely heavily on demand from China
中国计划为国内经济投资4万亿（5850亿美元），预计今年的经济
增长率在6-7%之间，比2007年的13%减缓了不少。中国经济发展
减速对亚洲其他严重依赖于中国需求的国家来说是场灾难。
• Government estimates that about 20m rural migrant workers,
15% of the total, had lost their jobs as export-oriented factories
shut their gates - more job losses & industrial unrest is expected.
政府预计2000万农民工（农民工总数的15%）由于出口型企业的
倒闭而失去工作——预计还会有更多人失业，从而引起产业动荡。
Plight of other Asian Tigers
其他亚洲四小龙国家的困境
• Singapore, the regional trade hub, could contract by up to
5% this year – its deepest recession since its birth in 1965.
亚洲的贸易集散地新加坡的经济今年将会萎缩5%，这是自
1965年以来最严重的衰退。
• Taiwan – a major supplier of microchips & flat screens as
part of the global supply chain of MNCs – is in serious
troubles. Economy shrank by more than 8 per cent between
Oct-Dec 2008 –
全球跨国企业供应链中主要的微芯片及平面显示器供应商台
湾也深陷困境。经济在2008年10月-12月之间萎缩了8%。
Impact on Developing Asia
对亚洲发展中国家的影响
• India: capital outflows, stock markets down by over 50%, fall
in rupee value, credit squeeze, real estate, construction,
financial sector affected, IT services exports down, textiles &
garment exports down, officially ½ million workers out of
jobs between Oct-Dec 2008 – in reality much more.
印度：资本外逃，股市下跌了50%多，卢比贬值，信贷压缩，
房地产、建筑、金融业受到影响，IT服务出口减少，纺织、
服装出口下降，根据官方公布的数据2008年10-12月有50万
工人失去工作——而实际数字应该还要高很多。
Impact on Developing Asia
对亚洲发展中国家的影响
• Bangladesh: garment industry that employs about 2.5
million workers & earns about 60% of country’s export
incomes – orders were down in 2008
孟加拉国：有着250万从业人员并且占全国出口收入60%的服
装制造业在2008年订单量减少。
• Philippines: garments & electronic exports to US down,
decline in remittances, depreciation of peso, capital
outflows,
菲律宾：向美国的服装和电子产品出口额减少，国外汇款额
降低，比索贬值、资本外逃
Impact on Developing Asia
对亚洲发展中国家的影响
• Sri Lanka: export incomes from rubber, tea, coconut down;
garment exports fall, slow down in investment, increase in
foreign debt burden
斯里兰卡：橡胶、茶、可可的出口收入下降；服装出口减少，
投资增速减缓，外债负担增加
• Thailand: textile & apparel industry slows down, in
agriculture sector rubber, cassava, rice & corn prices are
down, pension funds affected
泰国：纺织和制衣业发展减缓，农业领域橡胶、木薯、大米、
玉米的价格下降，养老基金受到影响
Impact on Developing Asia
对亚洲发展中国家的影响
• Vietnam: exports to US & EU are down, capital inflows
reduced (remittances, FDI, commercial loans), rising food
prices, declining business incomes & investment may turn
many bank loans into non-performing assets
越南：对美国、欧洲的出口下降，资本流入量减少（国外汇
款、外商直接投资、商业贷款），食品价格增加，企业收入
和投资的减少可能会使大量银行贷款变为不良资产
• Pakistan: falling value of Pak Rupee, rising food, electricity
& fuel prices, power cuts, lack of trust in government
abilities in the midst of political and insurgency instability.
巴基斯坦：卢比贬值，食品、电力、能源价格上涨，停电，
人民对政府解决政治动荡和武装叛乱的能力信心不足
Sources & further readings
参考文献、补充阅读
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Wall Street Meltdown Primer – by Walden Bello, published on Friday, Sept 26, 2008 by
Foreign Policy in Focus - 《华尔街垮台初级读本》，Walden Bello，“外交政策热点
”2008年9月26日出版。
Talking Points: Economic Meltdown – by Chuck Collins, Oct 27, 2008, Institute for Policy
Studies (www.ips-dc.org) - 《论经济垮台》——Chuck Collins，2008年10月27日，美国政
策研究院（www.ips-dc.org)）
How bailouts Dwarf other global crisis spending – by Andersen, Cavanagh & Redman,
Institute of Policy Studies, Nov 24, 2008 - 《拯救银行怎样超越了其他全球危机支出》——
Andersen、Cavanagh和Redman，美国政策研究院，2008年11月24日
Voices from the South – Impact of the financial crisis on developing countries – Institute of
Development Studies, Nov 2008 (www.ids.ac.uk/go/financial-crisis-impact)
《来自南方的声音——金融危机对发展中国家的影响》——英国发展研究院，2008年11月
（ www.ids.ac.uk/go/financial-crisis-impact ）
ILO Global Employment Trends Report 2009 - 国际劳工组织：2009年全球就业趋势报告》
IUF (www.iuf.org): The G20 and After–Questions for Labour, 15 Dec 2008
国际食品劳联（www.iuf.org）：《20国集团及关于劳工的后续问题》，2008年12月15日
Source: Financial Times, Asia and the crisis: Unlucky numbers By David Pilling, February
9 2009 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65599c38-f6e1-11dd-8a1f-0000779fd2ac.html
参考：金融时报，David Pilling《亚洲及危机：不幸运的数字》，2009年2月9日