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Macroeconomics:
a general view for non-economists
The base of this presentation it’s:
MACROECONOMÍA: BREVE HISTORIA Y CONCEPTOS BÁSICOS
Félix Jiménez
http://www.pucp.edu.pe/economia/pdf/DDD171.pdf
Prof. Carles Manera
[email protected]
Professor Carles Manera
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Definition
• Macroeconomics is a branch of economics
that studies the behavior of the economy as a
whole. For this reason, it coincides with the
birth of economic science itself. But also ,
macroeconomics incorporated as part of its
subject analysis of the effects of government
policies on the variables : production,
employment levels , inflation, trade deficit ,
etc.
Professor Carles Manera
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History of Macroeconomics
• The history of Macroeconomics is the history of economic science,
although it is true that in most textbooks, the birth of the so-called
Modern Macroeconomics is identified with the date of publication,
1936, of the General Theory of Employment , Interest and Money
by John Maynard Keynes.
• Readers should know, however, that economic science, from Smith
and Ricardo classic, late eighteenth century and early nineteenth
century, it was born having as object of study the behavior of the
economy as a whole. But there are precursors of this economic
science, prior to the classics, of course, both on the side of its
subject and by the side of the analysis method used. For example,
William Petty in his book Political Arithmetick (1665) proposes to
study only systematic or regular phenomena, and not transient
phenomena, to understand the behavior of the economic system as
a whole. This was the long-term method adopted after the Classical
and Neoclassical.
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Classical economics
• The classical economists Adam Smith and David Ricardo, do not change
the method or the object of study, but are the first to build a strong
analytical body to explain the workings of the capitalist economy, certainly
much more industrialized. It is no coincidence that the birth of the
modern economy is associated with his most important works: Inquiry
into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776) and Principles
of Political Economy and Taxation (1817), respectively.
• Smith believed that the main condition for the growth of the real wealth
of a country was improving labor productivity and, ultimately, this
productivity depends on the degree of division of labor and, therefore
Extension market. With the division of labor increases workers' skills and
technical progress it is stimulated. But this division of labor, Smith says, is
limited by the size of the market and consequently its intensification and
extension will only be possible in an expanding market. This is his theory
of the virtuous circle of growth or cumulative causation linked to
manufacturing (Kaldor, 1966).
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Smith-Ricardo
• Leaving aside the differences between Smith and Ricardo ,
we can say that the purpose of so-called theoretical body
classic was to explain the way the market economic system
solves the problems of production , distribution and
technology and social organization of these processes . The
relevance of this purpose was based on the conviction that
the market economic system had certain regularities from
which it could make him a graspable object of analysis , so
as to infer general propositions about its operation . For the
classics, those regularities which avoided caos-- , were
associated with the process of competition between
capitalists ; process that led both technological innovations
and productivity gains , as the equalization of the rate of
profit in the different economic activities ( Eatwell , 1983).
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Smith’s proposals
• Smith was referring to the competition process that continuously
established the "natural" (or production in the terminology of
Ricardo) price as the law of supply and demand or the invisible
hand of the market. In contrast to this classical approach is
developed in the late nineteenth century, the neoclassical theory of
curves determined by supply and demand prices. And how are you
supply and demand curves are established as functional
relationships between prices and quantities at the microeconomic
level, the pricing, product, employment and income distribution is
carried out simultaneously in all markets. Tastes and consumer
preferences, technology and factor endowments, are the data of
neoclassical theory, as will be understood, it makes full employment
a feature of the general economic equilibrium of the markets.
Compare these data with those of the classical theory of prices: size
and composition of the product, technology and real wage rate.
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Neoclassical theory
• The neoclassical theory of demand and supply is the synthesis of
the theories of marginal utility and marginal productivity developed
by W. S. Jevons (1835-1882), A. Marshall (1842-1924), C. Menger
(1840-1921), F. von Wieser (1851-1926) and E. Bohm Bawerk (18511914) L. Walras (1834 -1910), among others, during the first great
crisis of capitalism that began in the first half of the decade of the
70s of the nineteenth century and, coincidentally, during the years
of emergence of monopolistic and oligopolistic capitalism. This
synthesis is performed by K. Wicksell in his book Lectures on
Political Economy, published in 1901, and the first volume presents
the content of what later became known as micro-economic theory.
It is important to mention here that during the period in which it
develops the marginal neoclassical theory (also the economic
theory of imperialism) until the outbreak of World War I, the gold
standard was the currency or monetary system in which they are
based international relations between Overseas countries.
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The importance of Marshall
• With the content neoclassical economic theory changed. This no longer
consisted in analyzing the behavior of the economy as a whole or analysis,
according to the classical economists, the effects of the contradictions
between the economic interests of walks on the process of capitalist
accumulation and distribution, but in the study of the microeconomic
foundations of price formation. With the neoclassic also he disappeared
concern for social accounting of production flows, expenses and income
aggregates, as well as analysis of the effects of policies on these flows for
certain periods. Although Marshall considered the science of economics as
a continuation of the ideas expressed by Adam Smith (thus contributing to
the error of JM Keynes considered "classics" all the economists who
preceded him), Smith's conception of the division of labor and growth as a
macroeconomic phenomenon, not confined to a particular sector or
production process is the basis of the theory of endogenous growth driven
by technological change and growth of effective demand (Kaldor, 1966;
Hicks, 1992).
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The Great Depression
• The first decades of the twentieth century were not sustained
growth of the capitalist economy and stability . After the First World
War , European economies with floating exchange rate regime and
free movement of capital , were hit by rampant inflation processes
and acute financial problems. The return to the gold standard in the
mid twenties did not prevent the crisis. The second major crisis of
capitalism broke out in 1929, the year in which the long period
known as the Great Depression began . For 10 years the average
unemployment rate in the US was nearly 20 % and production was
consistently well below its productive potential . In this period of
unemployment and recession, J.M. Keynes develops and publishes ,
in 1936 , his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and
Money , now identified as the origin of modern macroeconomics .
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The demand
•
•
Keynes's ideas are radically opposed to those of neoclassical economists. For him
the capitalist economy with free markets does not tend to full employment. The
unemployment is involuntary workforce. Accordingly, to achieve stable economic
progress and full utilization of productive resources, the capitalist economy must
and should be regulated. Keynes proposed the active participation of the state in
achieving national goals, among which was central to the full employment of the
labor force.
On the other hand, unlike the classics argued that clung to Say's law or the idea
that every supply creates its own demand, Keynes argues that aggregate demand
that determines production and not vice versa. This proposal follows that
investment generates its own savings. This is the core of his theory of effective
demand. The classics had no theory of investment-savings ratio, but neither held
as neoclassical, the existence of a trade-off between investment and savings. the
preference for liquidity, the marginal efficiency of capital, liquidity trap, wealth
effect or Pigou effect, expectations, the marginal propensity: the work of Keynes
concepts that are now common in the books of Macroeconomics are introduced to
consume and the multiplier.
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Keynes and Hicks
• Keynes 's contribution was so important for the
development of macroeconomics that justice is talk of a
Keynesian Revolution . The so-called Keynesianism is
constructed and disseminated by integrating the ideas of
Keynes 's ideas eleven neoclassic on the determinants of
savings and money demand . This integration , later called
neoclassical synthesis was performed by J. R. Hicks in his
article "Mr. Keynes and the Classics : a Suggested
Interpretation "published in 1937. With this article Hicks
first introduced the IS- LM model of interaction between
monetary and real markets , which later became the
centerpiece of the so-called Keynesian consensus the
second postwar period.
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Keynesian consensus
•
The Keynesian consensus lasted from the end of World War II until the early years
of the 1970s the dominant monetary regime during this period was known Bretton
Woods system characterized by adjustable exchange rate regimes under specific
conditions, for the acceptance of controls to limit international capital flows and
the presence of the IMF in charge of monitoring the macroeconomic and finance
the balance of payments of countries in crisis policies. There was agreement,
throughout this period, state intervention in the economy to reduce
unemployment and stabilize prices by regulating aggregate demand. It is no
coincidence then that the argument between Keynesians and monetarists has
focused on the instrumental aspects of this intervention, ie in the prevalence or
otherwise of fiscal policy on monetary policy. The nature of the dispute was
recently modified to mid-1970s, when collapsing the Bretton Woods system,
inflation accelerates in developed capitalist countries and the conventional policy
to control stops succeed. The unresolved inflation, he added Keynesian remedy
stagnation, leading to the phenomenon known as stagflation. Given the evident
failure of Keynesian policies, there was a return to free market orthodoxy in a
context of flexible currency regimes and free movement of capital.
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Monetarism
• The fundamentals of Monetarism or Friedmaproposition inflation as a purely monetary
phenomenon , found in his earlier works : Studies in
the Quantity Theory of Money ( 1956) and A Monetary
History of the United States : 1867-1960 (1963 ) .
"Inflation occurs Friedman says , when the amount of
money increases faster than goods and services; the
greater the increase in the amount of money per unit
of output , the inflation rate is higher. Probably it does
not exist in the economy a proposition as well
established as this " ( M. Friedman , Milton and R.
Friedman , 1980 , p. 353 ) .
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Debate
•
•
•
•
The debate originated with Friedman's work Keynesians in the 1960s, focused on three issues:
1. The dilemma between the use of fiscal policy or monetary policy. Keynesians They are betting on
the first and the second monetarists. The discussion goes back to the explanation of the Great
Depression of the 1930s For the Keynesians this was caused by insufficient demand, while for the
monetarists was due not to a limited state spending, but a failure its function of controlling the
amount of money: the monetary contraction decreed by the Federal Reserve of the United States.
2. The Phillips curve was the second point of debate between Keynesian and Monetarist. Friedman
argues that long term there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Consequently, for
him the interaction between real and nominal variables, important element of the corpus of
Keynesian theory, is only a short-term phenomenon.
3. Discretion versus policy rules. Monetarists criticized the discretionary use of economic policies
and called for the establishment of rules. The conclusion is that economic policy Friedman in the
presence of flexible prices and wages, the state administration of aggregate demand, or state
intervention in the economy, is counterproductive. Friedman's proposal is a consistent monetary
policy rule in fixing the rate of money growth in line with the trend rate of growth of real output of
the economy.
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New debate
• In the period between the late 1960s and early 1970s, the so-called
revolution of rational expectations occurs in the field of
macroeconomics, with the work of Robert Lucas, Thomas Sargent,
Robert Barro and Neil Wallace . Precisely in this period the Golden
Age ends and the Bretton Woods system of postwar capitalism ,
and begins his third major crisis whose duration exceeds two
decades (Madison , 1991). The international economy is more
integrated commercial and financially , and moves toward new
technological standards and information. National markets open,
but the structures of these markets are more concentrated and
oligopolized . Moreover, as Hobsbawm (1996 ) points out, the
problems that the Golden Age was removed by a generation ,
reappeared after 1973 : massive unemployment , severe recessions
, poverty and instability.
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The New Macroeconomics
• There are three basic tenets of the New Macroeconomics "Classical":
• 1. The relationship between real and nominal macroeconomic aggregates
is given by unexpected changes of the latter. Given an economic structure,
the behavior of agents (based on rational forecasts, and thus correct, of
relevant variables) generates only real production levels, employment and
in the unemployment rate they are called natural. Fifteen
• 2. Agents use in their favor all relevant and available for making economic
decisions. An error due to a poor prognosis is so expensive that hardly
repeats. Therefore, the possibility of systematic errors in the behavior of
economic agents is excluded (their expectations are rational).
• 3. Agents are optimizers in the micro sense, they seek always maximize
profits. This assumption implies that any perturbation to the system
disappear during the process leading to equilibrium.
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New Synthesis
• The intense debate over the last two decades seems to
have produced , according to Olivier Blanchard , a more or
less uniform consensus that some economists are calling :
"New Keynesian Synthesis - New Classic " . According to
Blanchard (1997 ) and accepted theoretical issues that
characterize this consensus would be: " ( 1) In the short
term , changes in aggregate demand affect the product . (
2) Expectations play a decisive role in the behavior of the
economy. ( 3) In the long run the product returns to its
natural level. (4 ) Monetary policy affects output in the
short and medium term but not in the long run. (5) Fiscal
policy has effects both short and long term " (Blanchard ,
1997 , pp . 620-21 . Free translation ) .
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Flow variables and variables of Stock
• Flow variables : those whose magnitudes are measured
as a rate per unit time . They have temporal dimension.
Examples : investment per year , changes in the
amount of money per week , output per quarter ,
national income generated in 1998 , annual
government spending, etc.
• Stock variables : those whose magnitudes are
measured at a given point in time. They lack temporal
dimension. Examples: the capital stock of the economy
in 1998 , the number of hotels in Lima in 1997 , total
gold holdings of the Central Reserve Bank , the amount
of money in December 1990 , etc.
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Production and business cycle
•
•
•
•
The Great Depression of the 1930s caused production and employment turned into the most
important variables study of Macroeconomics. For ten years the domestic production of goods and
services of the United States was consistently well below its productive potential and the average
unemployment rate in the economy was almost 20%. This situation of recession and high
unemployment was more or less widespread in all advanced capitalist countries and, therefore, the
need to examine their determinants and identify solutions to avoid their adverse economic and
social effects was evident.
After World War II, fluctuations or production cycles resulted in the incorporation of fine tunning
with policies aimed at easing its effects on the welfare of the population. During the postwar period
there were four short but important recessions: in 1948-49, in 1953-54, in 1957-58 and in 1960-61.
What is a recession? To answer this question rigorously we must define first what is the economic
cycle. All aggregate variable can be decomposed into two parts: the trend (τt) and the cycle (ct). If
we call a time series yt actual value of the product (or product at constant prices), we have the
following equation:
The trend (τt) is the long-term component of real aggregate output variable and the cycle (ct) is the
difference between the observed values ​of this variable and its trend, ie is your short-term
component. Due to the presence of the latter component, we can say that the above equation
contains the concept of cycle of aggregate precisely is known as the business cycle production. "An
economic cycle consists of expansions occurring at the same time in the various branches of
economic activity, followed by recessions and recoveries ... which result in the expansion phase of
the next cycle." (Burns and Mitchell, 1946, p . 3).
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The economic cycle consists of the
following phases:
• 1. Recession or contraction . It is defined as a reduction
or drop in production aggregate and is the phase
between a peak of the cycle and a bottom of the cycle.
• 2. Background. It is the lowest point of the fall in
production .
• 3. Expansion. It is when the product begins to rise
maintaining a growing trend which continues until the
next summit. This phase is between the bottom and
the next peak of the economic cycle
• 4. The highest point reached by the real aggregate
output in each economic cycles .
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Unemployment
• Together with variations of the actual aggregate output
variations is studied employment. Economic downturns
affecting the population directly through layoffs and ,
therefore , generating unemployment. But unemployment
can also be the result of the inability of the economy to
grow while absorbing the entire workforce that regularly
enter the labor market.
• Unemployment is defined as a situation in which a fraction
of the people who are part of the population of working
age (or economically active population ) are looking for
work and can not find it . L Let's call the total workforce ; E,
to the part of the workforce is employed ; and D to the
population that can not find work . So:
L=E+D
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Okun
• The negative relationship between the rate of output
growth and the change in the unemployment rate is
known as Okun's law . It was identified and performed
in the 1960s by economist Arthur Okun , the Head of
the Economic Team of President Lyndon B. Johnson
seasoning.
• Okun found that the decline in the unemployment rate
of 1 % of the workforce of the United States was
associated with great regularity to increase the Gross
National Product of 3% , and therefore a fall in the
output gap ( Okun , 1962 ) .
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Inflation
• The second important variable studied macroeconomics is inflation
or rate growth in prices. The post-war reconstruction and recovery
in the United States was characterized generally by a decrease in
the unemployment rate and a significant price stability. This was the
period in which they were developed and widely disseminated
macroeconomic models with fixed prices. But since the late 1950s,
when inflation recurrent episodes are made, albeit moderately,
incorporating inflation in models reframe the debate and the role of
macroeconomic policies. In the second half of the 1960s the
persistent increases in the price level become more serious. Are the
years in which the controversy between Keynesians and
monetarists develops.
• Inflation is raising the aggregate price level of an economy. It is
measured as the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index
(CPI). The CPI is a index constructed from a representative basket of
consumption, a period known as the base period or base year.
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Hyperinflation
• When the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50% a
situation known as Hyperinflation occurs .
Hyperinflations are extremely rare and are
usually associated with wars or natural disasters
phenomena. The best known cases are those of
Russia ( December 1921 - . Jan 1924 . ), Germany
( Aug, 1922 - Nov. 1923) , Hungary ( Jun . 45 - Jul.
46) (See Cagan , 1967 , and Sargent, 1982 ) . The
growth rates in prices during the hyperinflation
are enormous. For example , during (the highest
ever) Hungarian hyperinflation average monthly
inflation rate of 19,800 % !.
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Philips
• The search for the explanation of inflation led to
the empirical verification of the existence of an
inverse relationship between the rate of change
of money wages and the unemployment rate of
the labor force . This empirical research, covering
information of the British economy for a period
of nearly a century , was made by AW Phillips ,
Professor at the London School of Economics ,
and published in 1958. Since then , the Phillips
Curve , as he he called this relationship , became
one of the most important tools of
macroeconomic analysis .
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Fiscal deficit
• The fiscal deficit is another variable studying macroeconomics. The
purpose of at the same time maintaining low unemployment and stable
prices became increasingly difficult because, as the finding of the Phillips
curve, the same forces that reduce driving unemployment higher prices.
These forces are associated with fiscal spending deficit.
• The fiscal deficit is the surplus government spending on total income.
When revenues are greater than expenses, the public sector is in surplus.
Expenses are of two types: current expenses and capital expenditures.
Current expenditures are all non-recoverable payments. Overall payments
are wages, purchases of goods and services, interest payments on
domestic and external debt. Capital expenditures are those incurred in the
acquisition and installation of durable goods associated with investment
projects. Government revenues also come from two sources: current
income and capital income. Current revenues are tax and non-tax
revenues. Capital revenues come from investments.
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Types of deficit
• There are two types of measurements government
deficit: the primary deficit and the economic deficit.
The primary deficit does not include financial expenses
in total expenditures. The economic result is equal to
the primary outcome plus the balance between capital
income and capital expenses.
• What is the relationship between the fiscal deficit and
the economic cycle ?. In the expansionary phase of the
economy, improving tax revenues, should reduce the
deficit. It is assumed, of course, that the magnitude of
tax collection usually depends directly growth of the
economy. If such a decline occurs, the fiscal deficit
would be a variable counter-cyclical.
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External deficit
• Another variable related to the development of the
economy is the balance of the balance of payments and in
particular trade balance. Modern economies today are
more commercially and financially integrated. The world's
economies are more interdependent. Just as we need to
buy computers, televisions, and machinery that we do not
produce, other countries need minerals or fish. A purchase
or sale of goods between countries is called international
trade. This is developed through exports (products and
services we sell) and imports (goods and services we buy).
At net exports of goods and services imports of goods and
services, it is called Trade Balance and is one of the most
important concepts of the balance of payments of a
country.
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Static and dynamic models
•
•
•
•
Models can be static and dynamic. That is, they can be models with or without temporal
dimension. The static model has no time horizon. Both models have equilibrium solutions
and must meet certain conditions of stability or convergence to equilibrium. The balance is
defined as a situation in which there are no pressures or forces that cause a change in the
model variables.
The balance may be stable or unstable. It will be stable if after a movement occur in one or
more of the exogenous variables, the equilibrium is restored. If the system does not return to
equilibrium, then it is unstable. If a static model is stable, then, they can be studied the
effects of changes in exogenous variables on the equilibrium values ​of endogenous variables.
If unstable, this analysis does not make sense. In macroeconomics it is often called Static
comparison to the study of these effects, ie the comparison of two situations produced static
equilibrium after a disturbance.
A model is static if the component variables are contemporary (no time dimension). This
implies that the model solution will be maintained while the values ​of exogenous variables
do not change.
A model is dynamic if you set intertemporal relationships among variables. Therefore, the
equilibrium solution model is a function of time. This solution is called dynamic equilibrium.
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