Transcript **** 1 - Yoo Soo HONG

East Asian Economy <Lecture Note 4> 2013.10.17
East Asian Economy:
Southeast Asian Economy and Comparison
* Some parts of this note are borrowed from the references for teaching purpose only.
Semester: Fall 2013
Time: Thursday 2:00-5:00 pm
Professor: Yoo Soo Hong
Classroom: 423
Mobile: 010-4001-8060
E-mail: [email protected]
Home P.: http://yoosoohong.weebly.com
1
Geography, History and Culture
2
South East Asia
3
ASEAN Member Countries
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Thailand
Viet Nam
Brunei Darussal
am
Malaysia
Philippines
Cambodia
Indonesia
Singapore
4
ASEAN Basic Data
• Total population : 497.56 million
• Total GDP : US$ 737.48 billion
• Total trade: US$ 720 billion
• Total area : 4,495,493 sq.km
5
Southeast Asia
 Background (Cultural)
– Southeast Asia is a land of large and small peninsulas and islands.
– The region is a cultural and political mosaic of diverse peoples and
lands.
– Influence of India and China on the historical development of the region
– Buddhism strongly entrenched in Burma, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos,
Vietnam.
– Hindu cosmology and beliefs influential in the region
6
 Overseas Chinese factor
- Overseas Chinese are major entrepreneurs in large urban areas.
- Thai people pushed out of southern China in 13th.
- Only Thailand (Siam) has never been colonized by the West.
- Thai monarchy practiced skillful diplomacy to preserve their
independence.
- Vietnam occasionally was ruled by China influence of colonialism
- Most states under colonial rule from 19th to 20th C, i.e. UK
(Myanmar, Singapore and Malaysia); France (Cambodia, Vietnam
and Laos); Netherland (Indonesia); US (Philippines)
7
 Population
- Southeast Asia has a large, expanding population
- In 1965, combined population of all countries was 250 million; by 1993 it
increased to 400 million; and by 2025 it is expected to rise to 550 million.
- Most countries growing at 2% per year; Thailand and the Philippines growing
at 3%; Cambodia and Laos have rates close to 1% reflecting ravages or war.
- Urbanization increasing in all countries though Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam
still have less than 20% living in urban areas.
- Indonesia and Thailand have 30% of their populations in urban areas
- Philippines just over 40%; Malaysia 50%
- 100% of the population in Singapore live in the city.
- Most Southeast Asian states have a high percentage of their people living in a
primate city, i.e. Bangkok, Thailand; Manila, Philippines, Phnom Penh,
Cambodia, etc.
- Migrations from rural areas to cities have strained governmental budgets, made
it difficult to provide adequate services.
8
Southeast Asia: Initial Conditions
 Resource-Rich Countries
Indonesia
Oil, Tin, Natural Gas, Timber, Coal, Nickel, Fertile Land
Malaysia
Oil, Tin, Natural Gas, Timber, Copper
Thailand
Tin, Rubber, Natural Gas, Tungsten, Timber, Lead
 Colonial Experience Under European Countries
Indonesia
Independence from the Netherlands in 1945
Malaysia
Malaya’s Independence from the Britain in 1957
Philippines
Under Spain until 1898 and Japan until 1945
Singapore
Independence from the Britain in 1959
9
 Diversity of Ethnic Groups and Religions
Indonesia
Java 45%, Sundan 14%, Malaya 7.5%
Moslem 88%, Protestant 5%, Catholic3%
Malaysia
Malaya and Native 58%, Chinese 24%, Indian 8%
Moslem 53%, Hindus 7%, Buddhist 17%, Catholic 6%,
Chinese traditional religion 12%
Philippines
Catholic Malaya 91.5%, Moslem Malaya 4%,
Chinese emigrants 1.5%
Catholic 83%
Singapore
Malaya 15%, Indian 6%, Chinese 77%
Buddhist 26.7%, Hindus 26.7%, Taoist 29.3%, Islam 16.3%,
Catholic 10.3%
10
Economic Growth and Status
11
ASEAN6 GDP Growth 1990-2011
Source: Chia, S. 2013. p.8.
12
CLMV GDP Growth 1990-2011
Source: Chia, S. 2013. p.9.
13
Southeast Asia: Development Process
 Industrialization
- Later than the North
 Early liberalization and market-friendly
- Some of South East Asian countries tried to nurture indigenous
industries but it did not work out well.
- Therefore, in most cases, industrialization of South East Asian
countries has been achieved by attracting FDI.
 They pursued early liberalization.
14
South East Asian Model
Singapore
Import-substitution during 1959-1965
 Industrialization with Export-promotion with
the 1965 split with Malaysia
 Strong government intervention to attract
FDI
Malaysia
Until the economic recession in 1985
• the late 1950s:
Industrialization with Import-substitution
• the late 1960s:
Industrialization with Export-promotion
• the 1970s:
Establishment of Export-processing areas led
by MNCs
• the 1980s:
Import-substitution with increased GOV’T
intervention
• during 1985-1986:
Loosened regulation and Repeal of control
while going through economic recession
In a case of Singapore, they pursued import-substitution
during 1959-1965, but with the 1965 split with Malaysia they
focused on promoting exports, which was led by MNCs.
Malaysia also promoted MNCs activities from the early stage: in
the 1970s establishment of export-processing area led by MNCs
15
South East Asian Model (cont.)
Thailand
• Industrialization since the 1960s but higher
portion of agricultural sector until 1980
 Import-substitution until 1971
 Government preferred liberalization and
market economy
Indonesia
Stabilizing economy by controlling inflation
during 1966-1970
Building infrastructure
Strong government intervention in finance,
heavy industry, tariff barrier, and developing
their own industry
• Export-oriented industrialization until now
Dramatic decrease in oil price during 19851986
•Too rapid increase of population:
1.7 million in 1947/ 2.6 million in 1960
/ 5.0 million in 1980
• MNC-led industrialization
Thailand government preferred liberalization and market
economy since the 1970s, and the government tried to
lead the export-oriented industrialization with their own
strength, but they couldn’t. One of major factors was too
rapid increase of population. So MNCs led industrialization.
 Currency depreciation
 Repeal of financial support
 Committing customs services to Swiss
company (SGS) in 1985
 Duty drawback system in 1986
 liberalization of foreign investments in 1986
Reducing tariff barrier
Indonesia government strongly tried to strengthen their
own industries, intervening finance, heavy industry and
tariff barrier. But facing dramatic decrease in oil price
during 1985-1986, the government took more marketfriendly measures.
16
 Economic Development
– Several Southeast Asian economies have made substantial economic
progress since the1960s.
– Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Philippines have good
economic growth rates with rising incomes.
– Cambodia, Laos, Burma (Myanmar), Vietnam have lagged behind the
rest of the countries of the region.
– Recently Vietnam opening the country up to market forces, foreign
investment, development of a thriving business community.
17
Economic and Social Development in Southeast Asia
 Southeast Asia has been one of the world’s most dynamic and fastest
growing regions in recent decades. (1990-2007)
- GDP growth 5.5% (the world: 2.9%)
 In 2007, the region’s average per capita income was estimated at
$4,020.3 (at 2000 constant prices), slightly higher than developing Asia.
High levels of investment in physical and human capital, pragmatic
trade and industrial policies, a vibrant external sector and, especially
after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, structural reforms supported this
favorable economic performance. The crisis sparked a wave of
recession in many directly affected economies, but this was short lived
and recovery was swift.
18
 The region still faces the daunting task of eradicating income and nonincome poverty.
- Rapid economic growth and structural transformation has helped lift
millions of Southeast Asians out of extreme poverty. During 19902005, poverty incidence in Indonesia declined by 32.8, Philippines by
7.0, Thailand by 9.0, and Viet Nam by11.4 percentage points.
- But as of 2005, about 93 million(18.8%) Southeast Asians still lived
below the $1.25-a-day poverty line, and 221 million (44.6%) below the
$2-a-day poverty line. Although most Southeast Asian countries are on
their way to achieving the income Millennium Development Goals
(MDG) by 2015, many face great challenges in achieving the nonincome MDGs.
19
Selected Economic and Social Indicators
20
Main Indicators
Country
Population
(thousand)
Country
1. Indonesia
234,181
1. Indonesia
2. Vietnam
86,930
3. Thailand
GDP
(US$ mil.)
Total
Trade
(US$ mil.)
Country
GDP per
Capita (US$)
708,032
1.Singapore
43,929
1. Singapore
699,273
2. Thailand
318,709
2. Brunei
28,830
2. Thailand
377,719
67,312
3. Malaysia
238,849
3. Malaysia
8,262
3. Malaysia
364,531
4. Philippines
60,163
4. Singapore
223,015
4. Thailand
4,735
4. Indonesia
293,442
5. Myanmar
60,163
5. Philippines
189,326
5. Philippines
3,149
5. Vietnam
156,993
6. Malaysia
28,909
6. Vietnam
107,650
6. Indonesia
3,023
6. Philippines
109,660
7. Cambodia
15,269
7. Myanmar
35,646
7. Vietnam
1,238
7. Brunei
11,952
1,045
8. Myanmar
11,798
10,480
Country
8. Laos
6,230
8. Brunei
11,952
8. Laos
9. Singapore
5,077
9. Cambodia
11,168
9. Cambodia
731
9. Cambodia
6,508
10. Myanmar
592
10. Laos
10. Brunei
415
10. Laos
6,938
Source : ASEAN Secretariat, 2010
21
GDP Growth Comparison: Actual and Forecast
Source: OECD
22
Poverty Estimates in Southeast Asia
23
Disparity in Productivity
Output per worker, 2008 (constant 2009 US$)
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
ASEAN
Philippines
Indonesia
Viet Nam
Cambodia
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Note: Labor productivity is not the same as wage.
Source: Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre Total Economy Database, January 2010.
90,000
24
Land Use
 Increasing demand for food and industrial crops in recent years has led
to intensification of agricultural production, generating considerable
environmental pressure.
- Growing population, rising incomes, and changing consumption
patterns have boosted demand for food and industrial crops from within
and outside the region, and to rising food prices on a global scale.
- In response, the region has intensified production of grains, animal feed,
and industrial crops.
 Rising agriculture production puts considerable pressure on water
resources already under stress from high population and economic
growth.
- Many parts of the region have been experiencing increasing
water stress, including water shortages and deterioration of water
quality due to rapid population and economic growth and climate
change.
25
International Competitiveness,
Trade and FDI
26
Export Performance Compared
27
Trade Performance
28
Closer Integration in ASEAN and East Asia
Average tariff rate under AFTA, %
Share of intra-regional trade
(percentage of total trade)
Source: SAEO 2010
29
FDI
Change in
FDI inflow
(%)
Tourist
Arrival
(thousand)
Change
in tourist
arrival
(%)
Country
FDI inflow
(ml. US$)
1.Singapore
35,520
1. Malaysia
525.8
1. Malaysia
24,577
1. Vietnam
33.9
2. Indonesia
12,737
2. Indonesia
161.2
2. Thailand
15,936
2. Laos
25.1
3. Malaysia
8,643
3. Singapore
132.5
3. Singapore
10,511
3. Cambodia
16.0
4. Vietnam
8,000
4. Brunei
70.3
4. Vietnam
5,050
4. Thailand
12.6
5. Thailand
5,778
5. Cambodia
45.2
5. Vietnam
4,735
5. Indonesia
10.7
6. Philippines
1,713
6. Thailand
16.1
6. Philippines
3,292
6. Philippines
9.1
7. Cambodia
783
7. Vietnam
5.3
7. Laos
2,513
7. Singapore
8.6
8. Brunei
629
8. Laos
(12.5)
8. Cambodia
2,508
8. Malaysia
3.9
9. Myanmar
579
9. Philippines
(12.7)
9. Myanmar
792
9. Myanmar
3.8
10. Laos
279
10. Myanmar
(40.7)
10. Brunei
112
10. Brunei
Country
Country
Country
(29.2)
Source : ASEAN Secretariat, 2010
30
Division of Labor: Parts Procurement of a Hard Disc Drive
Assembler Located in Thailand
USA
Mexico
SPNDLE MOTOR
BASE
CARRIAGE
FLEX CABLE
PIVOT
SEAL
VCM
TOP COVER
PCBA
HGA
HAS
DISK
HEAD
SUSPENSION
China
PCBA
CARRIAGE
HGA
BASE
HEAD
SUSPENSION
Japan
Taiwan
Thailand
TOP CLAMP
Malaysia
BASE
PIVOT
SPACER
VCM
BASE
CARD
TOP CLAMP
DISK
HEAD
Hong Kong
COVER
DISK
SCREW
SEAL
RAMP
TOP CLAMP
LATCH
PLATE CASE
LABEL
FILTER, PCBA
SUSPENSION
Philippines
FILTER CAP
DAMPING PLATE
COIL SUPPORT
PCBA
Singapore
COVER
SCREW
PIVOT
PC ADP
DISC
Indonesia
W.SUSPENSION
VCM
PCBA
31
FDI Inflows into ASEAN 1993-2011
Source: Chia, S. 2013. p.14.
32
Weakness of Southeast Asia
 Dual Structure
- FDI dependent, mass production of manufacturing resulted in the gap between the
manufacturing sector and agricultural sector (urban and rural area).
 Different Competitiveness between MNC-led Export Sector and Local Firm-Led
Domestic Demand
- MNC Competing in the overseas market increases productivity.
- Some domestic demand-oriented goods (consumption, goods) and local estate sector
have been lagged.
 Inefficient Investment
-
-
Firms invested in heavy and chemical industry or expanded by the close
relationship with the government have been inefficient with capital intensive
structure.
Financial system, monopoly and moral hazard problems exist.
33
 Lacking in Technology Transfer
- One of the most serious problems of Southeast in Asia is the week
technology base due to the strategy of industrialization by MNC inducement.
- MNCs have been reluctant to transfer their technologies to Southeast Asian
economies.
- Firms, the government, and people in general were not interested in
technology absorption.
- As a result, the industrial structure was distorted.
34
Socio-Economic Development
35
Human Development in Southeast Asia
global
rank
country
life
expectancy
at birth
(years)
mean
years
of
schooling
expected
years
GNI per capita
of schooling
(ppp 2008 U$)
27
Singapore
80.7
8.8
14.4
48893
37
Brunei D.
77.4
7.5
14
49915
57
Malaysia
74.7
9.5
12.5
13927
92
Thailand
69.3
6.6
13.5
8001
97
Philippines
72.3
8.7
11.5
4002
106
Indonesia
71.5
5.7
12.7
3957
113
Vietnam
74.9
5.5
10.4
2995
120
Timor-Leste
62.1
2.8
11.2
5303
122
Lao PDR
65.9
4.6
9.2
2321
124
Cambodia
62.2
5.8
9.8
1868
132
Burma
62.7
4
9.2
1596
Source: UNDP 2010
36
Geopolitics and Security
37
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
 Foundation
•
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established
on August 8, 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and
Thailand.
•
Brunei Darussalam joined in 1984, Vietnam became
the seventh member in 1995, and Laos and Myanmar joined two years
later in 1997. Cambodia joined in 1999.
Objectives:
• To strengthen the economic and social stability of the region
• To ensure peaceful and progressive national development
• To ensure stability and security from external interference
38
Association of Southeast Asian Nations with
China, Japan, and South Korea (ASEAN+3)
•
The meeting of ASEAN+3 (China, Japan, South Korea) was first held at
the Second Informal ASEAN Summit in 16 December 1997.
•
To promote greater cooperation between ASEAN and three Northeast
Asian nations with an objective of becoming a building block for regional
cooperation in East Asia
39
Trade Agreements in Asia
Actual and prospective
APEC (FTAAP)
NAFTA
BIMSTEC FTA
US
Mexico
Canada
SAARC
(SAFTA)
APTA
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Chile, Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei
Papua New Guinea, Peru, Russia
ASEAN + 6 (CEPEA)
ASEAN + 3 (EAFTA)
ANZCERTA
Australia
New Zealand
Northeast Asian FTA
Japan
Korea, China
ASEAN (AFTA)
Brunei
Philippines
Vietnam
Malaysia, Singapore
Indonesia
40
India
Laos
Thailand
Myanmar
Cambodia
Bhutan
Nepal
Maldives
Pakistan
Dynamic and Outward-Looking
 ASEAN’s centrality + Dynamic leadership in external relations:
- ASEAN+1 (10 Dialogue Partners : Australia, Canada, China, EU, India,
Japan, RoK, New Zealand, Russia, USA)
- ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) : 27 participants (10 ASEAN Member States,
10 Dialogue Partners, PNG, Timor-Leste, DPRK, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri
Lanka, and Bangladesh
- ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan, RoK)
- East Asia Summit (EAS) : ASEAN, Australia, China, India, Japan, RoK,
New Zealand
- cooperation with the UN, World Bank; regional organizations/institutions
(ECO, SAARC, PIF, GCC, Mercosur, SCO, ADB, UN-ESCAP, MRC)
41
Dynamic and Outward-Looking (continued)
 Active participation of ASEAN and/or Member States in international
and inter-regional dialogue and cooperation:
+ ASEAN-UN
+ Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM)
+ APEC (Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are still waiting to join)
+ G-20 (Indonesia + ASEAN Chair country)
+ World Trade Organization
+ Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)
+ Forum for East Asia – Latin American Cooperation (FEALAC)
+ Asia-Africa Summit
+ Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD)
42
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)
AEC
Transform ASEAN into a
stable, prosperous and highly
competitive region with equitable
economic development,
and reduced poverty and
socio-economic disparities
A Single Market &
Production base
• Free flow of goods
• Free flow of services
• Free flow of investment
• Free flow of capital
• Free flow of skilled labor
Source: Reaping the benefits of AEC & ,www.asean.org, as of December 2009
43
ASEAN and Dialogue Partners
ASEAN
--Indonesia
-- Malaysia
-- Philippines
-- Singapore
-- Thailand
- Brunei Darussalam
- Vietnam
- Myanmar
- Lao PDR
- Cambodia
EAS
ASEAN+3
- Japan
- Republic of
Korea
- People’s
Republic of
China
- Australia
- New Zealand
- India
ASEAN+6
Dialogue Partners
Australia
Canada
China
India
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
European Union (EEC)
Russia
Other Groupings/Relations
USA
Pakistan
UNDP
South Pacific Forum
Gulf Cooperation Council
Rio Group
SAARC
SADC
EFTA
Mercusor
44
NAFTA
ASEAN Centrality in the Global Landscape
Source: ADB. Emerging Asian Regionalism: a Partnership for Shared Prosperity.
45
Implications and Prospects
46
Future of Southeast Asia
 Needs of Southeast Asia
- For sustained economic development, it is indispensable that Southeast
Asian economies should invest more on R&D activities to develop
their own technology.
- Southeast Asian economies should promote competence of indigenous
companies to make domestic economy more active and reduce degree of
dependence on external factors.
- Southeast Asian economies should promote sound consumption culture.
- Southeast economies should build complementary relations with
China.
47
 Enhancing Self-Reliance
- Increase domestic consumption and develop high value-added
industrial structure and the service industry.
- Reduce the role of manufacturing base on mass production that is
dominated by MNC.
- Explore new growth sector that utilize mainly domestic resources.
- Promote local enterprises that use endowed resources and
technological capability.
48
Future Policy Focus by Country
Source: OECD
49
Challenging Issues

What made Southeast Asia to be united?

Among Southeast countries which country will be the strongest country in
20 years? Why?

For the future of ASEAN countries, which northeast country is the most
important country in the future, why?

(A hypothetical situation) Suppose a sea battle between China and Japan
started because of the island dispute. They also stopped economic relations
between them. What would be the economic impact of this on each of the
economies (i.e. Korea, China, Japan, and ASEAN) in the East Asian region?

China is a big country. Compared to China, Singapore is a tiny country.
However, Singapore has maintained No.1 competitiveness rank and the
highest income per capita (except Japan) in Asia. Does this fact imply that
smaller country is usually easier to be a competitive country than a large
country, why or why not?
50
East Asia as a Whole and
Comparison of NEA and SEA
51
Comparison of SEA and NEA
South East Asia
North East Asia
• resource-rich countries
• diversity of nations and religions
• relatively high portion of agricultural sector
• resource-poor countries
• the Cold War environment
• successful land reform
Development
Process
• natural resource-dependency
then industrialization
• early liberalization and market-friendly regime
• industrialization
• government active intervention
Capital
Accumulation
• high-savings & high-investments
• attracting high foreign investment
• high-savings & high-investments
• forming domestic capital
• export-oriented
• export-oriented
• high dependence on external factors
• MNC-centered Mass-producing system
• less development of the technology
• high dependence on external factors
• indigenous enterprise (e.g., conglomerate)
centered mass-producing system
• higher development of the technology
Initial
Condition
Market
outcome
52
Evaluation
Strong
S
E
A
N
E
A
Weak
• More utilization of market economy
• Rapid economic development
on attracting FDI
• ASEAN
• Relatively abundant natural
resources
•
•
•
•
• Development of its own
technology
• Rapid industrialization
by strong government-led policy
• Hard power
• Lack of regional institution
• Moral hazard (Bureaucratic finance)
• Limited natural resources
Vulnerability to external factors
Weak own technology development
Lagged behind of the Northeast
Corruption
53
National Savings Rates (% of GDP)
Taiwan
2001
1995
Indonesia
South Korea
Thailand
Hong Kong
China
Singapore
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
54
High-Tech Export (US$)
Reprinted from: Ismail, M. 2013. p.3.
55
R&D Expenditures in Asian Countries (in US$ million)
Reprinted from: Ismail, M. 2013. p.5.
56
Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities,
2008
Korea
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Brazil
Oil Exporters
Caribbean Banks
U.K.
Japan
China
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Billions
57
Wage Comparison
Gross
80.8
Net
42.5
41.5
4
37.4
35.2
35.8
18.1
17.8
14.7
13.7
9.5
8.7
7.4
6.9
To
ky
o
Se
ou
l
Du
ba
i
Ta
i
H
on pei
gK
on
Si
g
ng
K
ua apo
re
la
lu
m
p
Sh ur
an
gh
a
Be i
iji
Ba ng
ng
ko
k
De
lh
i
Ja
ka
rt
a
M
an
i
M la
um
ba
i
Wage Levels (US$)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Note: Cities ranked according to gross value of index
Source: Thai Board of Investment. UBS/Prices & Earnings March
2009 update August 2011.
58
Corruption Perception Index, Selected Countries,
2006 (10 = the least corrupt)
Myanmar
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
China
South Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
United States
Hong Kong
Singapore
Finland
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
59
Challenges of Continued Global Economic Uncertainty
•
Source: ESCAP
0
100
200
2012Q3
2012Q2
2012Q1
Asia-Pacific
2011Q4
2011Q3
2011Q2
2011Q1
2010Q4
2010Q3
2010Q2
2010Q1
•
Fiscal crisis in the euro zone + Policy
Export growth
50
uncertainty in US
40
World
30
Impact on Asia-Pacific
20
• Decreased economic activity through
10
the trade and finance channel
0
• Estimated regional GDP loss of 3%
-10
since the onset of the global crisis
five years ago - $870 billion
Loose monetary policies, quantitative easing
Vulnerability Yardstick
(QE), of the developed world
China
Impact on Asia-Pacific
Russian Federation
Kazakhstan
• Short-term capital flows volatility
Thailand
• Rapid short-term currency
Philippines
appreciation
India
Food and fuel price volatility
Indonesia
Malaysia
Impact on Asia-Pacific
Republic of Korea
• Poverty and inflation
Percentage (year-on-year)
•
Least
vulnerable
Most
vulnerable
300
60
New Development Paradigm in Asia-Pacific
•
Investing in social and environment
pillars fortifies economic pillar…
– Leads to sustained, inclusive
and equitable economic growth
•
Grow now, distribute + clean up later
is not an option
•
Critical for sustaining region’s
dynamism
Source: ESCAP
61
Reflection on Southeast Asia
 Southeast can be proud of ASEAN.
 Once, they achieve industrialization up to a similar level of the Northeast
Asia, the region can be another hub in Asia.
 Resources, human or natural, are the main source of competitiveness of the
region.
 Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia will be eventually the three leading
countries.
 Korea and Vietnam can form special alliance because of many similarities
and mutual complementarities. If Korea can form strategic alliance with
Vietnam and Turkey, three of them eventually emerge as another power in
Asia.
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References
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