Transcript Sustainable Cities * a Trilemma approach

Sustainable Cities
a Trilemma approach
• Building an index for cities
Stuart Neil, Senior Director for External Affairs and Communications | 9th May 2017
© World Energy Council 2016 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
What is the Energy Trilemma?
Meeting energy
Delivering social
demand
benefits
Secure energy is critical ►
Energy
fasdfmust be
to maintaining and
accessible and
driving economic
affordable at all levels of
growth.
society.
Minimising
environmental impacts
The impact of energy
production and energy
use on the environment
must be reduced.
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© World Energy Council 2015
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World Energy Trilemma Index – what gets measured gets done
Balancing the three core
dimensions of the energy
trilemma is the basis for
prosperity and competitiveness
of individual countries. If the
energy sector is to deliver on
climate goals and support the
achievement of development
goals, it needs to do so in
balance with the other two
dimensions, to ensure
sustainability of energy systems.
ENERGY
SECURITY
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
ENERGY
EQUITY
A basis for improvement
©©World
Energy
Council
2016 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
World Energy
Council
2015
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The Index illustrates existing trade-offs and points
to key areas countries must give extra attention
• It comparatively ranks countries in terms of their likely ability to provide a secure,
affordable and environmentally-sustainable energy system.
• It points to key areas that countries should pay extra attention to in order to further
develop a balanced energy profile and to minimise the uncertainties and risks
associated with an unbalanced approach.
• The Index covers 130 countries - 94 member countries and an additional 36 nonmember countries.
• Each country is given:
– a rank which measures overall performance on the Index and
– a ‘balance score’ which highlights how well a country manages the tradeoffs between the competing dimensions.
• Developed in partnership with Oliver Wyman
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Canada on rank 6
► Challenges:
• Balancing resource development
with environmental sustainability
• Developing diverse markets for
energy resources
• Ensuring an appropriate sharing
of the benefits from resource
development
2012
2013
2014
Score
Energy security
2
1
1
A
Energy equity
2
2
2
A
Environmental sustainability
66
60
56
B
Overall rank and score
10
6
6
AAB
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Japan on rank 23
2012
2013
2014
Trend
Score
Energy security
49
48
62
i
B
Energy equity
9
17
20
i
A
Environmental sustainability
29
33
41
i
B
Overall rank and score
14
16
23
i
ABB
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Diverse array of economies and priorities
2
High-GDP per capita
All Asia
Low-GDP per capita
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Low-GDP countries
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bangladesh
Cambodia
China
Georgia
India
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Mongolia
Nepal
Pakistan
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Tajikistan
Thailand
Vietnam
High-GDP countries
Australia
Hong Kong, China
Japan
Korea (Rep.)
Malaysia
New Zealand
Singapore
Taiwan, China
Regional differences and priorities
North America
Europe
Research, development
and demonstration
• More efficient
energy use
Lower carbon fossil fuel
use through gas and
technology deployment
• Greater share of
low-carbon energy
sources in energy
supply
Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa
• Tap potential for
Regional integration
renewables and gas
and interconnection
for energy supply
• Education and information
• Access to energy
to drive behavioural
and clean cooking
changes
fuels
in consumers and increase
energy efficiency
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Middle East & North Africa
Transparent energy pricing
to incentivise efficient
energy use
Increase share of solar
and wind energy in energy
supply
Asia
Technology transfers to
manage demand growth
• Social acceptance of
changing energy supply
• Increase resilience
• Energy efficiency and
demand management
Creating an Index
Lessons for Cities
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A country performance is based on an analysis of
~60 data sets used to develop 23 indicators
Total score
Indicator type
Dimension
1.1 Energy
Security
25%
1. Energy
performance
75%
1.2 Energy
equity
25%
1.3 Environmental
sustainability
25%
Indicators
1.1.1
1.1.2
1.1.3
1.1.4
1.1.5
1.1.6a
1.1.6b
Ratio of total energy production to consumption
Diversity of electricity generation
Distribution losses as a percentage of generation
Five year CAGR of the ratio of TPEC to GDP
Days of oil and oil product stocks
For importers – Net fuel imports as a percentage of GDP
For exporters – Fuel exports as a percentage of GDP
1/6
Each
1/2
Each
1.2.1
1.2.2
Affordability of retail gasoline
Affordability and quality of electricity relative to access
1.3.1
1.3.2
1.3.3
1.3.4
Total primary energy intensity
CO2 intensity
Effect of air and water pollution
CO2 grams/kWh from electricity generation
2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
Political stability
Regulatory quality
Effectiveness of government
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.3.4
Control of corruption
Rule of law
Quality of education
Quality of health
2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3
Cost of living expenditure
Macroeconomic stability
Availability of credit to the private sector
1/4
1/
Each
Country
performance
100%
2.1 Political
strength
8.3%
2. Contextual
performance
25%
2.2 Societal
strength
8.3%
2.3 Economic
strength
8.3%
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1/3
Each
A country’s overall rank
in the sustainability index
consists of two indicator
types: energy performance
and contextual performance,
weighted with a 3:1 ratio.
Each of the two broad
indicator types is re-divided
into three, equally-weighted
sub-dimensions, with
equally-weighted indicators.
Each indicator and the
average of the dimension
result are normalised
(0-10, where 10 is the max).
1/4
Each
1/3
Each
To calculate the energy and
contextual performance, and
the overall result, the individual
dimension results are then
weighted (25% or 8.3%) and
added up.
Energy performance
Energy performance considers supply and demand, the
affordability and access of energy, and the
environmental impact of the country’s energy use.
Axes
Dimensions
1
Energy security
Indicators
1. Consumption growth relative to GDP growth
2. Ratio energy production to consumption
3. Distribution losses as % of generation
4. Diversity of electricity generation
5a Exporters
Fuel exports as % of GDP
5b Importers
Fuel imports as % of GDP
2
Energy
performance
Energy equity
1. Affordability of retail gasoline
2. Affordability & quality of electricity relative to access
Environmental
sustainability
1. Total primary energy intensity
2. CO2 intensity
3. Effects on air and water
4. CO2 emissions from electricity generation
3
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Energy performance rankings are calculated by adding
the individual weighted (25%) dimension results
•
Since few countries rank highly in all 3 dimensions, many countries rank higher in overall energy performance than in any individual dimension
(e.g., United Kingdom, Sweden, Austria, Spain, New Zealand)
•
Due to the contextual performance countries can move up or down overall compared to their actual energy performance
•
Top 11 Index performers and their energy performance compared to overall / final rank:
Rankings
Scores
Country
Weighted
score
Energy performance
rank (by score)
Final Rank
Switzerland
19
6
1
8.59
9.60
10.00
7.05
1
1
Denmark
3
25
10
9.84
8.12
9.29
6.81
2
2
United Kingdom
11
8
19
9.21
9.45
8.59
6.81
3
5
Sweden
24
14
6
8.20
8.98
9.60
6.70
4
3
Austria
33
7
7
7.50
9.53
9.53
6.64
5
4
France
44
5
9
6.64
9.68
9.37
6.42
6
10
Spain
22
16
23
8.35
8.82
8.28
6.36
7
9
Canada
1
2
60
10.00
9.92
5.39
6.33
8
6
Norway
51
10
8
6.09
9.29
9.45
6.21
9
7
Germany
31
11
30
7.65
9.21
7.73
6.15
10
11
New Zealand
15
26
37
8.90
8.04
7.18
6.03
11
8
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Contextual performance
Contextual indicators consider the broader
circumstances of energy performance including societal,
political and economic strength and stability.
Axes
Dimensions
1
Political strength
1. Political stability
2. Regulatory quality
3. Effectiveness of government
Societal strength
1. Control of corruption
2. Rule of law
3. Quality of education
4. Quality of health
2
Contextual
performance
Indicators
3
Economic
strength
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1.Macro-economic stability
2.Cost of living expenditure
3.Availability of credit to the private sector
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Index results roll up from indicators to dimensions to
axes (or indicator types) and finally to an overall result
Individual indicators are normalised to a standard scale, with consistent statistical properties (0-10, where 10 is the max) to produce index
dimensions and and overall index results. Example: Oil stocks in days
Country
Absolute
Normalised
Indicators
Dimensions
Indicator type
(contextual /
energy)
Austria
96
4.72
Brazil
375
7.51
Qatar
2523
9.14
Each of the six individual dimensions is
calculated from the average of the
dimension’s individual, normalized indicator
results. That average is then normalized
again. Example, energy equity dimension
Country
Indic. 1
Indic. 2
Average
Norm.
Austria
8.96
9.07
9.02
9.53
Brazil
4.70
2.49
3.60
3.35
Qatar
9.57
7.60
8.59
9.37
To calculate the energy and contextual
performance the respective dimension
results are weighted (25% or 8.3%) and
then added. Example, energy performance
dimensions are weighted 25% each.
Country
Security
Equity
Environ.
Energy P.
Austria
7.50 x .25
9.53 x .25
9.53 x .25
6.64
Brazil
7.96 x .25
3.35 x .25
8.75 x .25
5.02
Qatar
9.45 x .25
9.37 x .25
2.65 x .25
5.37
The overall country result is based on the
sum of the individual weighted dimensions.
Country
Energy P.
Contextual P.
Overall
Austria
6.64
2.16
8.80
Brazil
5.02
1.44
6.46
Qatar
5.37
2.06
7.43
Overall result
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Datasets used
IMF
GDP, current prices billion USD
GDP (PPP), billion USD
Populations, millions
Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP
EIA Total Primary Energy Consumption (TPEC)
TPEC, Quadrillion Btu, for last 5 years
EIA Total Primary Energy Production (TPEP)
TPEP, Quadrillion Btu, for current year
Joint Oil Data Initiative, Total Products, Thds Barrels (kbbl), Closing Stocks
Petroleum demand (Kilo-barrels)
Joint Oil Data Initiative, Product Stocks, Thds Barrels (kbbl)
Product stocks
Joint Oil Data Initiative, Crude Stocks, Thds Barrels (kbbl), Closing stocks
Crude oil stocks (kilo-barrels)
Joint Oil Data Initiative, Total Products, Thds Barrels (kb/d), Refinery intake/Demand
Petroleum - Crude production
Eurostat demand and product stocks
supplements JODI data above
EIA demand (Quadrillion BTUs)
supplements JODI demand
EIA crude production (Quadrillion BTUs)
supplements JODI crude production
WDI World Development Indicators Report
Total merchandise imports ($BN)
% of merchandise that is fuel
Total merchandise exports ($BN)
Fuel exports as percentage of merchandise (%)
Electricity generation sub-indicators; diversity of electricity production (Shannon index)
Distribution losses (BN KWH)
Total generation (BN KWH)
Super Gasoline (US cents/litre)
Access to electricity
Quality of Electricity
Household electricity expenditure (USD per kilowatt hour)
WDI World Development Indicators Report
EIA
EIA
EIA
GIZ
Global Tracking Framework SE4All
WEF Global Competitiveness Index
IEA
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Datasets used
WEC
Emissions intensity (CO2 per USD GDP)
WEC
Total primary energy intensity of GDP at PPP (koe/$05p)
Yale Environmental Performance Index
Air pollution (effects on humans)
Water (effects on humans)
Air Pollution (effects on ecosystem)
Water (effects on ecosystem)
IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion
Grammes of CO2/kWh
World Bank
Political stability
Regulatory quality
Effectiveness of government
Control of Corruption
Rule of law
WEF Global Competitiveness Index
Health (index)
Education (index)
Macro-economic stability
World Bank
International Comparison Program
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, int $ M
WDI World Development Indicators Report
Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)
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Individual consumption expenditure by households, int $ M
The structure of the Index – Guiding Principles
►
Relevance: Indicators are chosen or developed to provide insight into country
situations in the context of the project goals.
►
Distinctiveness: Each indicator focuses on a different aspect of the issue being
explored, unless reinforcement is required.
►
Balance: Indicators within each dimension (and dimensions across the Index) exhibit
a coverage of different issues.
►
Contextual sensitivity: Indicators capture different country situations (for example,
wealth, size) and where appropriate indicators are normalised by GDP (PPP) and per
capita.
►
Coverage: Individual indicators are required to provide data for 85% of WEC member
countries. Only countries with data available for at least 75% of all indicators were
included in the Index calculation.
►
Robustness: Indicators to be taken from reputable sources with the most current
information.
►
Comparability: Data to calculate an indicator is derived from a single common unique
source to ensure comparability between countries.
►
What is unique to cities?: Identify data specific to the city – supply from grid
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Thank you
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