Transcript net oil importers

African Economic
Outlook 2007
Water and sanitation:
How can Africa fill the gaps?
Lucia Wegner
Céline Kauffmann
OECD’s Knowledge Centre on
Development
A bridge between …
• OECD members and partners
Governing Board open to non-OECD: South Africa,
Brazil, Chile, India, Romania, Thailand are members
• Research and policy
Intellectual autonomy, no obligation of consensus
• Policy communities
All development policies, not just aid
• Different actors: private, public, etc.
Informal dialogue
2
Part of the OECD’s
“Development Cluster”
• Club of bilateral
donors
• Best practice
• Peer reviews
Monitoring
commitments
G8/OECD –
AU/NEPAD
Development
Assistance
Committee
(DAC - 1961)
Development
Centre
(DEV - 1962)
Africa
Partnership
Forum
(APF - 2006)
Sahel & West
Africa Club
(SAH - 1975)
• Bridge OECD
members and
partners
• Research / policy
• Intellectual
autonomy
• Informal dialogue
Informal
discussion
Forum OECD /
ECOWAS +
Mauritania &
Cameroon
3
1
What is the African Economic Outlook Project?
2
Africa Performance: A diverging path?
3
Access to Drinking Water and Sanitation: how can Africa fill
the gaps?
4
African Economic Outlook
Measuring the Pulse of Africa
• Joint publication of the AfDB and the OECD
Development Centre, supported by the EC – 6th
edition.
• Mobilising a network of in-country African experts
+ collaboration with WB, IMF, AFD, …
• A resource for policy makers, aid practitioners,
investors, researchers, students, …
• A tool for policy dialogue amongst African policy
makers (nationally, APRM, …) and with their
partners (EC, G8, OECD)
5
African Economic Outlook
An innovative product, an evolving process
•
Comprehensive, comparative and independent analysis
of 31 countries and short-term macroeconomic
forecasts.
•
Annual focus
• 2003: Privatisation
• 2004: Access to energy
• 2005: SME development
• 2006: transport infrastructure
• 2007: access to drinking water and sanitation
•
Statistical annex, including innovative indicators
6
Coverage 2007: 31 African countries
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Libya
Mauritania
AEO 2007
Egypt
Niger
Cape verde
Mali
Senegal
Gambia
Chad
Guinea-Bissau
Eritrea
Burkina
Faso
Guinea
Djibouti
Togo
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Côte
d'Ivoire
Sierra Leone
Sudan
Central African
Republic
Liberia
Cameroon
Ghana
Equatorial Guinea
Somalia
Uganda
Congo
Sao Tome et principe
Gabon
Kenya
Rwanda
Dem.Rep.
Congo
91% of GDP
Burundi
Tanzania
Comores
Angola
Malawi
Zambia
86% of population
Mozambique
Zimbabwe
Madagascar
Namibia
Botswana
Swaziland
Mauritius
Lesotho
South
Africa
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1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project?
2 Africa Economic Performance: A diverging Path?
3
Access to Drinking Water and Sanitation: how can
Africa fill the gaps?
8
Africa continues to grow strongly
7
6
growth rate
5
Africa
4
3
Total OECD
2
1
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e) 2007(p) 2008(p)
Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, OECD
9
The recent commodity boom has an
important role to play
490
450
410
370
330
290
250
210
170
130
90
Petroleum
Copper
Aluminium
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2
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1
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Gold
Source: the Worldbank 2007
10
Stable growth in oil producers in 2006
Net Oil Exporters
Africa
8
Real GDP Growth
(%)
7
6
5
4
3
Best performing net oil exporters in 2006
2008 (p)
2007 (p)
2006 (e)
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Angola
Sudan
Congo
Egypt
DRC
Nigeria
Libya
Cameroon
Algeria
Gabon
Chad
Equatorial Guinea
Source: African Economic Outlook 2007
0
5
10
15
20
Real GDP Growth 2006 (%)
11
And improving growth in oil importers: thanks
to good harvest and booming metal prices
(%)
Oil Importing Countries
Africa
8
7
6
5
4
3
Best Performing net oil importers in 2001-2006
2008(p)
2007(p)
2006(e)
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Kenya
South Africa
Net Oil
Namibia
Tunisia
Africa
Zambia
Ghana
Morocco
Net Oil Exporters
Uganda
Botswana
Mali
Burkina Faso
Tanzania
Mozambique
0
5
10
Average Real GDP Growth 2001/2006 (%)
Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007
12
… fewer bullets, more ballots
Presidential elections in
2006
Political Troubles and Hardening of the Regime in 2006
600
500
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
0
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Hardening of the regime indicator
2001
2002
2003
Political troubles indicator
2004
2005
trend
2006
Political troubles: weighted sum of events
Hardeningof the regime: weighted sum of events
250
Benin
Cape Verde*
Chad
Congo, Dem Rep.*
Gambia
Madagascar
Sao Tome et Principe*
Seychelles
Zambia*
Uganda
Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, Political Indicators
*Parliamentary elections as well
13
Challenges ahead differ: Oil exporters
and importers on a diverging path?
•
Oil and Mineral
exporters:
CPI Inflation
Total Africa
– Capitalising on
Net Oil
windfall gains
exporters
– Create spillover to
Net Oil
rest of the economy
importers
– Avoid Dutch
Desease
Fiscal Balance
•
The rest of Africa
(net oil
importers):
– Containing
inflationary
pressure
– Finance widening
trade deficit
– Streamline
spending to
prioritise poverty
reduction
Total Africa
Net Oil
exporters
Net Oil
importers
10.0
8.8
9.1
9.2
9.5
11.6
9.4
5.7
5.3
5.5
8.8
8.4
12.0
12.7
13.0
-2.0
2.4
3.2
2.7
2.0
-0.8
7.0
8.2
7.3
6.1
-3.1
-1.9
-2.3
-2.2
-2.4
1.8
6.7
7.8
7.6
6.6
7.5
20.3
21.3
20.6
19.4
-3.4
-6.2
-6.5
-6.2
-6.8
Trade Balance
Total Africa
Net Oil
exporters
Net Oil
importers
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Despite strong growth rate, progress
towards the MDGs remains slow
Satisfactory
Non Satisfactory
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Halve the % of Ensure that all
people suffering children can
from hunger
Complete
primary school
Eliminate
Gender
disparity in all
levels of
education
Reduce by 2/3
under 5
mortality rates
Reduce
Halt and
Halve the % of
maternal
reverse spread people without
mortality by 3/4 of Tuberculosis access to safe
water
Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007
15
Africa remains vulnerable…
Due to its limited integration into international trade
•
•
•
Africa’s share in world trade remains minimal (1.5 per cent)
New actors : China’s trade with Africa has increased five-fold since 2001
There are opportunities but also a risk of further specialisation and of
raising the bar for competing in labour intensive industries
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2001
2002
2003
A fric a % of world X
Source: COMTRADE
Note: X indicates exports
2004
2005
F uel X % of A fric a X
16
…and poorly diversified
The higher the index, the more diversified the economy
Morocco
Sénégal
Tunisia
Ghana
Tanzania
Africa
Kenya
Cameroon
Algeria
Uganda
2005
1996
Ethiopia
2005
1996
Mozambique
Chad
0
10
20
30
40
0
5
10
15
20
Source: African Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook 2007
17
Better Governance and Business
Environment are fostering FDI
growth…but
• Africa’s share in world FDI inflow remains small at 4 per cent
• It is mainly concentrated in natural resources rich countries
18
How can Africa become an active
player in Globalisation?
Increasing absorptive capacity of Trade and FDI:
Continuing to maintain macroeconomic stability, improving
business environment, and devise policies to promote
diversification
Using external resources more effectively:
• Capitalising on oil and minerals windfall gains to invest in
health education and access to basic services
• Using ODA as a catalyst: aid for trade is an instrument for
enhancing Africa’s integration in the global economy.
19
ODA as a catalyst
0.40
0.36
0.35
140
0.33
0.33
120
0.26
100
80
0.22
0.20
Total ODA
(right scale)
0.15
60
40
0.10
0.05
20
Total ODA to Africa
(right scale)
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
1991
0.00
1990
% of GNI
0.25
ODA as a %
of GNI
(left scale)
ODA ($ billion 2004)
0.30
20
Aid for trade is on the rise …
and Africa is the 2nd largest recipient
21
1
What is the African Economic Outlook Project?
2
Africa Performance: A diverging path?
3
Access to Drinking Water and Sanitation: how can Africa fill
the gaps?
22
Access to water and sanitation:
the facts
• 10 million people / year have gained access to
improved drinking water over 1990-2004 in sub-Saharan
Africa
• With population growth, the number of unserved has
increased by about 60 million and SSA is unlikely to
reach the MDGs by 2015.
• The situation is worse for sanitation: 35 million more
people annually need access to improved sanitation
(current trend: 7 million)
• If the MDGs were reached by 2015, 234 million people
would still lack access to safe drinking water and 317
million to improved sanitation
23
People w/o access to drinking water (ml)
The world is progressing. Africa’s share of unserved is growing.
1200
1000
800
600
Rest of the
World, 747
Rest of the
World, 550
400
200
Sub-Saharan
Africa, 322
Sub-Saharan
Africa, 369
0
2004
2015 (p)
Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme
24
People w/o access to sanitation (ml)
Idem for sanitation but proportions are 3 times bigger.
3000
2500
2000
1500
Rest of the
World, 2149
Rest of the
World, 1836
Sub-Saharan
Africa, 463
Sub-Saharan
Africa, 554
2004
2015 (p)
1000
500
0
Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme
25
Access: the outstanding experiences
• North Africa:
– 91% have access to drinking water (highest level in
developing world with Latin America).
– Sanitation coverage up by 12% points between 1990 and
2004 (at 75%), on track to reach the 83% target by 2015.
• Universal access to water in Mauritius and South Africa.
• Uganda: coverage for drinking water × 3 between 1990 and
2006 (from 21 to 61 per cent).
• Tanzania: 90% of population have access to some form of
sanitation.
26
A resource issue?
Renewable water per capita (m3/inhab/yr)
North Africa
East Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
Central Africa
Africa
0
10000
20000
30000
Source: FAO, Aquastat.
40000
50000
60000
27
Mainly a management issue
• Weak extraction capacities - except in North and South
Africa
• Inefficient use: agricultural (68%), domestic (24%),
industrial (8%).
• Industrial pollution, poor sanitation and sewage practices.
In Congo, only 68% of SNE water samples comply with
quality standard.
• Wastage: unaccounted for water reaches 50% in most cities.
Botswana: 46%, Mauritius: 47%, Cairo & Alexandria: 50%
28
Introducing water demand management
the municipality of Windhoek
Programme components:
• Increasing public awareness
• Implementation of block tariff system
• Legislation to address water conservation
• Improved maintenance and technical measures to reduce
leaks
• Re-use of water: one of the first cities to introduce recycling
of effluent for drinking purposes
In 2006: unaccounted-for water fell to 10.3%
(good practice: 15-20%)
29
The remaining Challenges
• Implementing integrated water
resource management (IWRM)
• Strengthening local management
• Advancing sanitation and
wastewater treatment to the top of
the agenda
30
Status of National IWRM
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
North Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Mauritania
Sudan
Algeria
Libya
Central Africa
Cameroon
Burundi
Central African Rep.
Chad
Congo
DRC
Rwanda
Eastern Africa
Uganda
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya
Mauritius
Tanzania
Western Africa
Burkina
Benin
Ghana
Mali
Nigeria
Senegal
Southern Africa Namibia
South Africa
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Swaziland
Zambia
Source: Global Water Partnership, 2006
31
Key management issues
• Strong national water policies and legislation.
• Sound and autonomous regulation: monitor progress,
set guidelines, design incentives to extend service provision
and protect consumers (NWASCO in Zambia).
• Strengthening capacity on the ground (partnership in
South Africa between TCTA and Umgeni Water).
• Harmonisation of different stakeholders’ interventions
(SWAP in Uganda).
• Participation of all stakeholders: improve efficiency,
maintenance, avoid conflict (Ghana community approach).
• Regional cooperation
32
Reducing the sanitation gap
• Increasing access to drinking water can only be safely
achieved if sanitation is tackled simultaneously.
Awareness rising: Senegal
• Investments are small compared to the health and
environmental costs of inaction and returns (WHO:
economic benefits of meeting MDGs in Africa = $23 bl/yr).
• Overcome the segmentation of the sector: between
administrations, among providers (Durban).
• Develop technologies adapted to communities’ needs.
• Invest in prevention campaigns (Community health
clubs in Zimbabwe).
33
Financing
A key issue for all stakeholders
• Investment needs: $20bl/yr until 2025, 1/3 for
sanitation, ¼ for drinking water supply (Africa Water
Vision 2025).
• Insufficient public money (national budgets and ODA).
• National water providers have failed to achieve
financial viability.
• Least attractive sector to private investors – but active
in some countries.
34
Financing gaps in water and sanitation
(rural/urban)
Uganda
40
In million $ per year
Madagascar
20
Benin
Burkina
DRC
Kenya
Mozambique
Senegal
Mauritania
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Source: AMCOW, AfDB, EUWI, WSP & UNDP, 2006.
35
Strengthening utilities
• Financial independence:
– cost-recovery: affordability and cross-subsidisation
– sustainable & predictable public funding
• Capacity building through benchmarking and
partnerships (ex: UNSGAB Water Operators Partnership).
• The role of small-scale local providers
– Flexible, better knowledge of remote areas
– But they need to be better regulated and their action
facilitated by institutional framework (Uganda
Association of Private Water Operators)
36
What role for the donor
community?
Total Water ODA to Africa, $ billion, 2004 prices
1.2
0.9
0.6
Bilateral ODA
0.3
Multilateral ODA
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: OECD/DAC
37
What role for the donor
community?
• Using ODA to leverage further financing (Zambian
Devolution Trust Fund).
• Using subsidies targeted on performance, such as
Output-Based Aid (GPOBA in Mozambique).
• Develop innovative financial tools: sub-sovereign
financing facility in local currency, risk mitigation
through resource pooling.
• The role of the African development Bank: African
Water Facility and the Rural Water and Sanitation
Initiative.
38
Thank you
39