Transcript Realizing the Transport We Want: What will it take?

Realizing the Transport We
Want: What will it take?
Jose Luis Irigoyen
Director of Transport and ICT, World Bank
World Conference on Transport Research
July 10-14, 2016 – Shanghai, China
What does the future of transport look like 15
years from now? What are the 5 top defining
trends shaping the future of transportation?
World Transportation needs are growing rapidly
The volume of transported passengers and
freight has exploded in developing countries
Road
Trillions of tons - km
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
15
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Trillions of passenger - km
2.5
20
2
1.5
10
5
1
0.5
High Income
2012
2009
2006
0
2003
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
0
2000
Trillions of passenger - km
6
0
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
Trillions of tons - km
Freight
6
Passengers
Rail
7
Low & Middle Income
Source: World Bank. Development Indicators
Global transport volumes will continue to grow
Source: 2016 Outlook, International Transport Forum
Trade volumes continue to grow
• Expected growth in trade translates into freight volumes growing by 4.2%
annually between 2015 – 2030
• Significant changes in the geographical composition of trade
• Hinterland connections will face the largest capacity challenges
International freight in ton-km by corridor: 2010, 2030 and 2050
Source: Outlook 2016, International Transport Forum
Socio-economic shift in makeup of global population
Major achievements in reducing
poverty in past 10 years, but 3%
target by 2030 far from secured
Half of world population will move into
middle class by 2030 with new
mobility aspirations
Private cars
5
Source: World Bank
Shift boosts new demands for transport
Household’s spending on transportation
projected to increase by factor of 3-4 in South
Asia, East Asia, Africa between 2013-2035
Global population shares by age cohort, %
Source: World Bank
Percent increase of total, transportation, and food
consumption, 2013-35
Private cars
6
Source: Hellebrandt and Mauro (2015)
• More attention to equity issues, vulnerable groups (age, gender)
• Social aspirations: broader opportunities for social outcomes, jobs, greater social
accountability, quality of services (e.g., public transport)
• Car ownership projected to grow by 60% by 2025
Globalization 2.0: rebalancing from N to S and W to E
Logistics and supply chains play bigger role in a country’s growth as demand for
products becomes global
Global Economic Integration
“You can talk about the miracle of e-commerce in China
or in the world … but the logistics industry is where
China’s real great miracle has been over the past decade”
Jack Ma, Global Smart Logistics Summit, June 2016:
Trade integration ratio of total imports
and exports to global GDP. Financial
integration: ratio of total financial
inflows and outflows to global GDP
Percent of GDP
Merchandise trade, a cartographic visualization
Source: DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014
Source: Kose and Ozburk (2014),
World Bank Development Indicators,
Global Monitoring Report (2015).
Globalization 2.0: emerging trends
• Integrated systems for synchronized use of different transport modes based
on available capacity at all times
• Reconfiguration of trade routes in line with shifting patterns in consumption
and production
• More balanced globalization: (1) expanding global value chains into “new
territories” (countries, regions, sectors) and (2) reducing carbon footprint
through shortened and improved supply chains (“lean and green” initiatives)
Surface freight density – 2010
Surface freight density 2030
Source: 2016 Outlook, ITF
Source: 2016 Outlook, ITF
Rapid Urbanization: spaces are transforming faster
Shenzhen, China
From a fishing village of several thousand
1980
• East Asian cities expected to triple their built
up area in 20 years
• African cities expected to double their
footprint by 2030; rapid urbanization at
lower levels of income
Observed and projected number of new urban residents in
developed and less developed countries
Million people per year
To a city of 9 million
Today
Source: Brandon Fuller and Paul Romer. 2014. “Urbanization as
Opportunity”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9
Urbanization brings opportunities, also challenges
Cities with more than 10 million in 2030
Megacities congested even at
low motorization rates
Cities are learning that is
not possible to build way
out of congestion
• Rapid pace of urbanization exacerbates institutional and resource constraints
• Right choices early on to avoid “lock-in”: land use and transport planning;
emphasis on public transport
• By 2030, the population of slums may rise to over 1 billion
Challenges of rapid urbanization in Africa
Cities in Sub-Saharan
Africa are crowded but
physically dispersed and
less well-connected than
other cities
Households in African cities
face higher costs relative to
their per capita GDP than in
other regions. Urban
transport is about 42% more
expensive in African cities
than other countries
Source: World Bank Regional Study
on Spatial Development of African
Cities. Team Led by Shomik Lal
Connections among people as a function of population near city center
ICT/digital innovation in a hyper-connected world
Connectivity enables flow of goods, finance, knowledge, technology…
ICTs are a powerful tool for reducing friction in such flows
• New ways of communicating (smart phones, digital platforms, IoT, cloud computing)
• New forms of mobility (e-commerce, connected vehicles, driverless vehicles, drones)
• Predictive power of “Big Data” analytics for better planning, increased responsiveness
Source: World Economic Forum, Boston Consulting
Group. May 2013 ”Connected World: Transforming
Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains”
ICTs integrate travel demand and transport solutions
• Planning people-centered services and monitoring performance in real time
• Incentivizing behavior change, “demand management” schemes, crowdsourcing
• Integrating services across modes, addressing affordability through smart subsidies
Aadhaar card, India
Bogota SITP fare
card, Colombia
3. Multi-purpose use
of card can stimulate
use of public transport
4. Subsidy scheme can
be linked to social
security infrastructure
1. Card is system integrator
among all modes. Open
standards/ protocols enable
seamless user experience
2. Card allows design of subsidy:
Government of Rio pays when
user needs multiple transfers
Rio Janeiro’s smart card
Matching power of ICTs enabling “shared economy”
Ride Sourcing/Vehicle Sharing (ownership)/
Future: Automated Vehicle Sharing
Huge potential of “Big Data” and data
analytics in transportation
•
•
•
•
Explosive growth in connected devices,
social networking platforms
Velocity of data aggregation/processing.
Sophisticated analytics can substantially
improve decision making
Data privacy issues important
Climate Change is a threat to development
“Different from past environmental problems
for its scale, magnitude of its risks, urgency of
global action”. N. Stern, May 2016
Source: World Bank, Shock Waves Policy Note (2016)
Climate change increasing uncertainty
Climate risks need to be integrated into
planning/design, prioritizing robustness
and resiliency more than before
• Broad but uneven impacts on economy
• Increasing frequency, costs of natural
disasters
• Poor countries, poor people likely to
face greatest impact
Transport: major contributor to global CO2 emissions
Yet until recently, transport was absent from
almost all scenarios on how to stabilize
concentration of GHGs in atmosphere
Transport currently contributes almost 23% of
energy-related global emissions and rising…
Lifecycle CO2 emissions, 2010
At 2% yearly 1990-2012, the
fastest growing source
• Without modal shift transport
will become largest emitter.
• Emissions projected to nearly
double by 2050 without action
Outlook 2016, ITF
Big challenges ahead to put mobility on sustainable path
Global efforts on sustainable mobility have so far been insufficient
1
billion
people
Over 1 billion
people have
no access to an
all-weather
road
fuel
70 %energy
70 percent of
fuel energy
lost in engine
and driveline
inefficiencies
1
billion
cars
Number of
vehicles on the
road expected
to double to 2
billion by 2050
32
% in road
deaths
Road death rate per
100,000 population
increased 32% in Low
Income Countries
(from 18.3 in 2010 to
24.1 in 2013)
23
% GHG
emissions
Transport accounts
for 23% of energyrelated GHG
emissions and this
share is increasing
17
Large co-benefits from truly “sustainable mobility”
Current trends contribute to
costly social externalities
Planning for low carbon, countries have a choice
Cost in GDP share (OECD Averages)
Congestion
8.5%
Local pollution
0.4%
Global
1-10%
pollution Transport GHG emissions from
23% today to up to 33% by 2050
Accidents
Noise
Car dependency
and urban sprawl
1.5-2%
0.3%
5-7% (developed countries)
2.5% (developing countries)
• Size and relevance of co benefits – they reinforce each other
• Land and infrastructure policies today determine future travel, fuel use
• Choice is between pathways that exacerbate climate risks and pathways that
reduce climate risk and foster “better growth” (inclusive, green)
18
Choices will lock-in lifestyles, energy use, vulnerability
Bogota
Atlanta
Barcelona
Los Angeles
Atlanta
Barcelona
Population (million)
5.25
5.33
Area (sq km)
4280
162
7.5
0.7
CO2 emission tons/year
19
How the global agreements reached in 2015
impact the way we frame and implement a
truly sustainable transport agenda?
SDGs: Major increase in global development ambition
• SDGs shift focus to absolute and sustainable progress across a
broader array of areas (from 8 under MDGs):
– 17 goals and 169 targets to be attained by all countries around the world
– Overarching goal to end poverty, equitable development, sustainability
21
SDGs and Transport: The opportunity for a broader vision
• Five targets directly involve transport:
– Halve number of deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents (3.6);
– Double global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (7.3);
– Develop sustainable and resilient regional and trans-border infrastructure
…with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all (9.1);
– Provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport,
notably expanding public transport (11.2);
– Rationalize inefficient fossil fuels subsidies (12.c)
• Attaining at least another six targets will critically depend on it:
– Eradicating extreme poverty (1.1), agriculture productivity (2.1), air
pollution (3.9), sustainable cities (11.6), reduction of food loss (12.3),
climate change adaptation and mitigation (13.1)…
• Mainstreaming of transport across SDGs underscores its
importance as enabler of other sectors’ achievements
22
SDG3: Road Safety one of the targets
A global health crisis:
•
•
Managing for results
1.25 million deaths per year, 20-50
million injured (since 2007)
Top cause of death 15-29 years old
An equity issue:
•
50% of fatalities vulnerable groups:
pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists
DGT, Spain. Fatalities 1980-2013
Source: WHO Global Status
Report on Road Safety 2015
What will
it take for
developing
countries
to reach
the tipping
point?
Emphasis on equity: SDG9 inclusive access
Rural Access Index
Share of rural population living within 2
km of an all-season road.
•
•
2006 results: 1 bn people unconnected
to an all-weather road (based on
household surveys)
2016 update based on geospatial data
24
Emphasis on equity: SDG11 inclusive access in Cities
Measuring access under Target 11.2.1: Proportion of population
that has convenient access to public transport
Measuring access to opportunities:
Number of jobs accessible within 1 hour of starting point
SDG 11: Why special focus on cities?
Spur Economic Growth
Bring Inclusive Development
Tackle Local/Global Environment
Urbanization and GDP per capita
CO2 emissions from urban transport (1980-2030)
300,000
CO2 (MILLION KG)
250,000
Source: Shyam Menon, World
Bank/EMBARQ (WRI),Jan 2007
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
• Cities generate 80% of • Growth of slums (urban
• Urban outdoor pollution linked
poverty, social exclusion)
global output (500, 60%
to 4 million premature deaths
of global income growth) • Bottom quintile spends
• Cities contribute 70% of energy
disproportionate share of
• Growing welfare costs of
–related GHG emissions
income on public transport
traffic congestion
Paris Agreement at COP21 of UNFCCC
• Global agreement to limit global warming to well below 2oC and
make efforts to limit increase to 1.5oC (December 2015)
– Countries encouraged to reach peak GHG emissions as soon as possible
and achieve rapid reductions thereafter to “net zero” between 2050-2099
– NDCs: reviewing and strengthening them every 5 years, starting in 2020
– Adaptation as important as mitigation actions
– International collaboration on low carbon research to enhance
willingness to cooperate
Many actors have made voluntary financial and operational commitments:
COUNTRIES
CITIES
PRIVATE SECTOR
>70%
>80
>260
countries are
targeting
transport
in their
NDCs
C40 cities are
tackling
climate change
and climate
risk
transportation
companies
pledged
to reduce GHG
emissions
MDBs
>$175
CIVIL SOCIETY
billion
committed for
sustainable
transport
from 2013 to
2022
15
initiatives have
committed to
reducing carbon
footprint across
transport modes
LPAA/PPMC transport initiatives at COP21
Airport Carbon Accreditation:
Reduce carbon emissions &
increase airport sustainability (50
airports carbon neutral by 2030
Aviation’s Climate Action Takes
Off: Collaborative climate action
across the air transport sector
C40 Clean Bus Declaration:
Raising ambition and catalyzing
markets
Global Fuel Economy Initiative:
100 countries 50 by 50. Double
fuel economy of vehicles by 2050
Global Green Freight Action Plan:
Reduce climate and health
impacts of goods transport
ITS for Climate: Use Intelligent
Transportation Systems (ITS) to
deliver big results at a small cost
Low Carbon Road and Road
Transport Initiative (PIARC).
Climate adaptation policies.
MobiliseYourCity: 100 cities engaged in
sustainable urban mobility planning to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Navigating a Changing Climate: Reduce
emissions, strengthen resilience, and adapt
waterborne transport infrastructure
UIC Low Carbon Sustainable Rail Transport
Challenge: 50% reduction of CO2 emissions,
50% increase in rail’s share of pax by 2030
UITP Declaration on Climate Change Leadership: Double the market share of public
transport by 2025
Urban Electric Mobility Initiative: Harness
technological innovation and better urban
planning to promote low carbon transport
World Cycling Alliance (WCA) and European
Cyclists’ Federation (ECF) Commitment:
Double cycling in European cities by 2030
Worldwide Taxis4SmartCities: Accelerate
introduction of low emission vehicles in
taxis fleet by 2020
ZEV Alliance: Accelerate adoption of
global zero-emission vehicles
Beyond incremental action: Targets and lock-in effects
ITF Decarbonization Project
“Planning INDCs to 2025-2030 is not
enough! Two paths to 26-28% emissions
by 2025. One is dead-end. The other a
path to de-carbonization”. J. Sachs, World
Climate Summit, Washington DC, May 2017
A commonly-acceptable pathway to achieve zero
transport emissions by around 2050.
• Federate existing data and knowledge on
transport to create most comprehensive
model of global transport activity to date.
• Provide decision makers with a tool to test
and gauge impact of policies and actions.
• Bring broad set of partners into the design of
roadmap towards carbon-neutral transport.
What will it take to implement such agenda?
What are the emerging knowledge and policy
gaps that may affect good decision making?
GOALS
A shared Vision for “Sustainable Mobility for all”
INCLUSIVE
ACCESS
EFFICIENCY
SAFETY
CLIMATE &
ENVIRONMENT
Secure access for all
to economic and
social opportunities
Increase the
efficiency of
transport systems
and services
Improve the
safety of mobility
(SDG target 3.6
on road safety)
Embed mitigation,
adaptation and
environmental
concerns into supply
and demand

AREAS OF FOCUS



Rural population
living within 2 km
of all weather
road
Urban population
with access to
public transport
Equitable access
for all stakeholders, including
groups w/special
needs ((gender,
age, disabilities)
Affordable to the
poor (including
demand subsidies
where necessary)
•
•
•
•
•
Sustainable asset
management and
Transportation
Demand Mgmt to
get the most of
existing infra.
Seamless intermodal transport
and logistics, lean
& green initiatives
Smart solutions
(ICT/Big Data)
Flexible “Demand
Responsive
Transport”
Secure transport
and logistic
systems
•
•
•
Safe system
approach to halve
fatalities and
injuries by 2020
Active transport
(walking and
cycling) to support
healthy lifestyles
Transport-related
air pollution in
cities reduced in
line with WHO
standards
•
•
•
•
•
GHG emissions in
line w/low carbon
trajectory for decarbonization
Avoid through TOD,
compact city
planning/zoning
Shift to rail, waterways, high quality
public transport,
walking/cycling,
shared- veh, TDM
Improve vehicle
technology, fuel
efficiency stds,
vehicle mtce.
Make transport
climate resilient
Clear policies and well-coordinated bold Actions
Scale and focus essential to radically transform the movement of people
and goods in the short, medium, and long-term.
In the short-term: a set of “quick-wins”, such as:
Expand congestion/road and parking
charging in major global cities to
eliminate distortions
Modernize ageing fleets, management
systems to increase efficiency, and
reduce empty runs
In the medium-term: actions such as:
Dedicate funding for sustainable
mobility in the Green Climate and
Climate Investment funds
Rebalance urban public space in favor
of NMT and expand use of public
transport/mass transit
Tighten fuel economy standards to
make transport cleaner/more efficient
Accelerate the introduction of carbon
pricing (including reforms to eliminate
fuel subsidies w/o impacting the poor
Simplify regulations and incentives to
encourage private investment in efficient
low carbon technologies
Roll out technologies that can drastically
reduce traffic crashes and fatalities
In the long-term: actions that support and accelerate the implementation
of a Global Roadmap for De-Carbonization of the Transport Sector
32
A global leadership coalition to galvanize action
• A coalition to galvanize action from public/private sector for sustainable mobility
–
–
–
–
National and city government: national/local leadership, policies
Private sector: investing in cutting edge sustainable transport, sharing data
Civil Society and academia/research: advocacy, knowledge, new solutions
International organizations: global clout, knowledge and financing
“Sustainable Mobility” has become a local, national and global issue
GLOBAL
Green House Gas Effect
Energy Security / Fuel Prices
NATIONAL
Financial Liabilities
Farmland Conversion
LOCAL
Traffic Accidents
Auto Pollution
Traffic Congestion
G-20 Toolkit on Urban
Transport. Mexico, 2012
New demands on skills, institutions
• Breaking silos - institutions that work together both
vertically and horizontally towards common goals
– Strong institutions set for accountability of specialized
functions…
– now need to coordinate across sectors and different levels
of government…
– ensuring coherence among strategies, policies, project
selection…
• Urgent need to build institutional capacity at local level:
– Adaptable cities must strive for solutions that are “best fit”
to local conditions
– Multiplication of actors as cities become more
interconnected with technology (governance)
Leaders in Urban Transport Planning. Building capacity
for holistic thinking and planning through participatory
problem solving and networking with practitioners
Some research areas to support sustainable mobility
Some implementation challenges and knowledge gaps ahead:
• A strong foundation of data, indicators, and a results framework to monitor
progress against SDGs and the vision goals
• Rigorous documentation of wider benefits, cross sector impacts of spatial
development patterns and access to transport (eg., labor markets) that can
support an evidence-based Theory of Change
• Robust modelling tools to assess impact of policies, regulations and
investments on goals and underpin preparation of plans (NDCs, Road
Safety Plans, etc) that support a satisfactory trajectory towards the goals
• More comprehensive appraisal methodologies to value all benefits/social
costs of transport, and support alternative decision-making/ scenario
planning approaches that better deal with deep uncertainty
• Better understanding of business models (eg., urban logistics) and barriers
to fast adoption of smart solutions (stds, policy/regulatory constraints)
• Continued development of transport products that are highly competitive,
less polluting and tailored to increasing customers’ expectations
• Better understanding of determinants of behavior to foster behavior
changes in support of the goals of “sustainable mobility for all”
35
World Bank and the transport research community
Some examples of joint work/collaboration include:
• Making qualitative data available to enable external research
– Impact of Rural Accessibility improvements in Peru, with GRADE
– “IeConnect for Impact” with DIME and participating research institutions
– Evidence-based research under WB’s/DEC Strategic Research Program (SRP): eg.,
logistics, resilience of transport networks, transport and poverty reduction
• Developing new methodologies, joint innovative products
– Burden of disease and road safety (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation);
– Road Traffic Injuries Research Network to improve research capacity in LICs
– Wider Economic Impacts of High-Speed Rail in China with Economic Planning and
Research Institute in China and Cambridge University;
– Open Transit Indicator tool with China Academy of Transport Science, MIT
• Partnering with academia/think tanks in knowledge sharing and capacity
building programs
– LUTP (Singapore Land Transport Academy, KOTI, Academy Mayors China,
various universities and think tanks in more than 15 countries
– Transform initiative, China
– Transforming Transportation Conference with WRI; TRB, COTA
• Engagements in WB’s analytical work that leads to research papers
36
‫ ﺷﻜﺮﺍﹰ‬谢谢 Merci धन्यवाद
Спасибо አመሰግናለሁ 感恩 Asante
Thank you!
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