Transcript Versnelde groei

The Shrinking State
The Netherlands 1928-1958
Institute for Small State
Studies:
Summer School
Rekjavik June 2011
Richard T. Griffiths
(Leiden University)
Netherlands 1928
Area 30,000 km2
Population 7.6 million
Pc GDP
GDP
Indonesia 1928
Area 1.9 million km2
Population 59 million
Pc GDP
GDP
Foreign Trade 1928 (mln €) (66.6% GNI)
Exports
Percent
196
21.7
212
23.5
79
8.7
79
8.7
31
3.4
903
100
Services
+ 20
Imports
Percent
114
9.3
331
27.1
137
11.2
64
5.2
121
9.9
1220
100
Foreign Trade 1928-38
Devalues 1931 (20% by 1933, 40% by 1938), Diverts Imports to
Empire
Exchange Control 1931, Diverts Imports to E-C Europe and S.
America
Raises Tariffs and Quotas, Devalues 1935
Raises Tariffs, Devalues 1933 (40% by 1938)
Raises tariffs and quotas,
Domestic deflation, devalues 1936
Diverts trade to Empire
Tries to stimulate trade with ‘gold bloc’
Import drive from Germany to liquidate assets
Cannot increase imports from UK as quid-quo-pro for mkt access
Foreign Trade 1938 (mln €) (43.3% GNI)
Exports
Percent
108
22.0
71
14.5
52
10.6
47
9.6
21
4.3
490
100
Services
+ 47.7
Imports
Percent
58
8.7
141
21.2
Large drop in Trade:GNI ratio
Significant drop in German trade
Slight relative rise in Belgian trade
Slight relative rise in NOI trade
78
11.8
64
6.9
46
10.6
663
100
Foreign Trade 1938-48
Tariffs, quotas on imports, export restrictions, state monopolies.
Priority internal reconstruction
Trade through Occupation Forces. Exchange control. De facto on
dollar standard. Allies limit domestic production and consumption
Promoting intra-Benelux trade through payments regimes and
(1949) customs union
Maintains Tariffs, Marshall Plan begins to fund imports
Import quotas and exchange controls
German market virtually closed , UK acting as monopsonist
NOI in turmoil and subject to Dutch ‘police action’
Foreign Trade 1948 (mln €) (51.5% GNI)
Exports
Percent
178
14.4
73
15.6
192
5.9
91
7.4
39
3.2
1234
100
Services
- 657
Imports
Percent
223
9.9
121
14.7
332
5.4
152
6.7
391
17.4
Stagnant Trade:GNI ratio (Increase largely US imports)
Massive drop in German trade
Rise in Belgian trade
Slight relative fall in NOI trade
2253
100
Foreign Trade 1948-58
Devalues 1949, Dismantles QRs within OEEC
Dismantles QRs within OEEC, Joins ECSC
Benelux customs union, Joins ECSC
Allows quota discrimination against itself, high tariffs
Devalues 1949
Dismantles QRs within OEEC
Joins ECSC
Loses NOI as colony
Foreign Trade 1958 (mln €) (73.0% GNI)
Exports
Percent
660
11.9
830
15.0
1060
19.1
63
1.1
312
5.6
5548
100
Services
+ 696
Imports
Percent
461
7.4
1116
17.9
Record high Trade: GNI Ratio
Major surge in German trade
Maintain rise in Belgian trade
Collapse in NOI trade
1221
19.3
142
2.3
705
11.3
6250
100
What is the Problem?
Tariff discrimination persists
Discrimination against agriculture persists
OEEC trade concessions are not permanent
And we are waiting for the next recession!!
What is the Solution?
End high tariffs in GATT (US problem)
European tariff scheme (European opposition, US veto)
Separate agricultural scheme (protectionistic drift)
Enlarge Benelux (gets France in, but keeps Germany out)
A customs union of the ECSC states
Why want a customs union?
Allowed by GATT
Equality of treatment (no discrimination)
Abolition (not reduction) of intra-area trade controls
Economic disarmament
Why get it?
Because small states have large markets
Small States have large Markets
Netherlands:
Relatively small
Relatively rich
High Import Intensity
especially in manufactures
especially from neighbours
Customs Unions are preference areas
benefit those inside over those outside
And the Dutch represent the largest foreign market in the
OEEC for manufactured goods!
.