Transcript 2015 CII Annual Conference

Global Construction Outlook
Divergences in the world economy and construction markets
Scott Hazelton, Managing Director
IHS
A gradual acceleration in the global economy
• World real GDP growth will pick up from 2.6% in 2015 to 3.3% in 2016.
• Consumer spending and homebuilding will lead a US acceleration.
• Recoveries in the Eurozone and Japan will gain momentum, aided by monetary stimulus,
currency depreciation, and pent-up demand.
• China’s growth will be restrained by imbalances in credit, equity, housing, and industrial
markets.
• Several emerging markets are in recession this year—Russia, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil.
• Growth paths in emerging markets will depend on structural reforms that raise productivity and
allocate capital more efficiently.
© 2015 IHS
3
The “Great Divergence”
• Over the past four years, global real GDP growth has been remarkably stable, between 2.5%
and 3.0%.
• The composition of growth has changed fundamentally, however, with a gradual acceleration
among the advanced economies and a sharp deceleration in the emerging world.
• Four trends have driven this divergence:
• Debt and deleveraging
• The plunge in prices of oil and other commodities
• Central banks moving on different paths
• The rise of the US dollar and the fall in other currencies
© 2015 IHS
4
Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) and Sub-Saharan Africa
will achieve the fastest growth in real GDP
Real GDP
Annual percent change
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
NAFTA
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
Other Western Emerging MideastSubAmericas Europe Europe N. Africa Saharan
Africa
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017-21
Japan
Other
AsiaPacific
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5
Supply growth restrains the recovery in oil prices
• Several forces are putting downward pressure on oil prices:
•
•
•
•
Record OPEC and Russian production
High inventories in the United States and Europe
Unsold oil in the Atlantic basin
Signs of increasing Libyan output
• Current OPEC production is 31.6 million barrels per day (MMb/d), its
highest level since summer 2008, when Brent topped USD140/barrel.
• An agreement on Iran’s nuclear program will enable Iran to export
about 0.5 MMb/d more in 2016.
• Global demand growth will pick up from 0.7 MMb/d in 2014 to 1.3
MMb/d in 2015, but this is insufficient to balance the market.
• Slower growth in China is the major downside risk to oil demand.
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6
Crude oil prices will gradually recover
Price of Dated Brent crude oil
150
Dollars/barrel
125
100
75
50
25
0
2000
2005
2010
Current US dollars
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
2015
2020
2025
2014 US dollars
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7
7
The dollar’s real exchange value has reached a 12-year high
against major currencies
Real trade-weighted dollar index
1.6
Index, 2009 = 1.0
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
Major trading partners
Source: IHS
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2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Other important trading partners
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8
Exchange rates per US dollar
Canadian dollar
Euro
1.6
1.2
1.4
1.0
1.2
0.8
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.6
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
0.2
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
Japanese yen
Source: IHS
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Chinese renminbi
140
9
120
8
100
7
80
6
60
5
40
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
4
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
Source: IHS
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Quarterly averages
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9
The five year outlook shows improving growth with
particular strength in the APAC and MEA regions
Real construction growth rates, CAGR 2014-2019, %
Less than 0%
0% to 2%
2% to 5%
Greater than 5%
© 2015 IHS
Globally, all segments of construction will enjoy annual growth in the
3%-4% range over the next five years
Five
year construction outlook
7
(2010 US dollars, CAGR 2014-19, %)
6
5
AP
EE
4
S. Am.
MEA
3
N. Am.
WE
2
World
1
0
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
Residential
Building
Infrastructure
Total
© 2014 IHS
The most rapid growth comes from Asia, and MEA
Fast growing markets - total construction
Bubble size: total construction spending, 2015, billions of 2010 US$
Spending Growth, Real 2010 US$, CAGR 2014-19 (%)
12
10
Qatar
India
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Cameroon
8
Senegal
Vietnam
China
Kenya
6
Pakistan
United Arab Emirates
Egypt
Indonesia
4
Morocco
Global Median
2
0
0
10
20
30
5 Year Construction Risk
© 2015 IHS
Nigeria
40
50
60
North American growth will pick up, lead by the U.S. residential market
• The US expansion has regained momentum
North American Construction Spending
this spring after adverse weather and an
inventory correction in the first quarter.
Homebuilding will rise through 2016 as
supply catches up with demand.
(Percent change from a year earlier)
World
North America
• Exports and fixed investment will lead
2017
Mexico
2016
2015
Canada
• Canada’s growth has been restrained by
United States
0.0%
© 2015 IHS
Mexico’s acceleration. Consumer spending
growth will pick up in response to income
gains.
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
sluggish capital spending. Exports will lead a
gradual pick up in growth in 2015-16.
13
Housing will have a sustained recovery, particularly in multi-family construction
• Employment growth has re-established
Residential Construction Spending CAGR 201419
World
3.3%
North America
Mexico
Canada
United States
© 2015 IHS
household formation while the overhang of
foreclosed properties has been absorbed.
Financing for builders remains an issue, but the
demand is there as reflected by rising home
prices.
• Canada has actively slowed its housing market
4.0%
to avoid a potential bubble. A flat economy and
weak demographics complete the picture.
1.5%
1.3%
• Large Mexican homebuilders overextended
5.2%
themselves with land purchases and lack credit
to take on major new developments. Smaller
builders have picked up the slack.
14
North American non-residential markets will follow housing into strong recovery
NonResidential Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19
Industrial
3.5%
Office
3.8%
• U.S. employment has surpassed its pre-recession
peak, suggesting that vacant space has been put
back into use. The new construction share of
investment is increasing.
• Industrial construction will slow with weak energy
prices. Hotel construction is strong, but retail is
languishing. Growth in office and commercial is
front-loaded.
Commerical
1.6%
• Institutional spending will be handicapped by U.S.
Institutional
0.0%
© 2015 IHS
3.5%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
budget concerns. Health care spending is set to
improve, but composition will evolve from hospitals
to other care centers. Education construction will
remain weak due to poor household formation.
15
North American infrastructure does not fare as well
Infrastructure Construction Spending CAGR
2014-19
World
North America
4.1%
• U.S. fiscal situation remains mired with lack of
compromise in Washington. State and local revenues
are improving but cannot offset federal slack. Projects
across the nation (estimated at over $1.5 billion) have
been pulled from bid, delayed, or cancelled as a result
of the uncertainty involved with these short-term
Highway Bill extensions.
1.0%
• New residential and commercial construction will
Mexico
Canada
4.8%
contribute some demand for water/sewer installations
and modest street construction.
2.2%
• Mexico’s administration has improved its infrastructure
United States -0.5%
© 2015 IHS
spending and opening investment in its energy sector
will create opportunities not only in energy projects,
but also in the broader infrastructure that is supported
by national energy revenues.
16
South America: Deteriorating investment climates
• The regional economy has stalled and will see limited growth in 2016.
• Falling commodity prices are hurting export income.
• Brazil is back in recession, with industrial production in a sharp decline and both unemployment
and inflation rising.
• In Argentina, high inflation, fragile public finances, foreign-exchange controls, and import
barriers are obstacles to growth.
• Venezuela faces a long and deep recession with falling oil revenues, product shortages,
hyperinflation, and rising debt-servicing costs.
• Resource development will support growth in Colombia and Peru.
• The region’s long-term challenges include inadequate infrastructure, restrictive business
environments, and income inequality.
© 2015 IHS
17
Real GDP growth in South America
Real GDP
Annual percent change
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Brazil
Argentina
2013
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
Colombia
2014
2015
Venezuela
2016
Chile
Peru
2017-21
© 2015 IHS
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Ease of doing business varies across the Americas
2015 rank out of 189 countries
United States
Canada
Colombia
Peru
Mexico
Chile
Panama
Uruguay
Brazil
Argentina
Bolivia
Venezuela
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Source: World Bank Group
© 2015 IHS
19
South America’s growth held back by Venezuela and Brazil
•
CAGR 2014-19
• Growth in the region is slowing as with
World
1.6%
Panama
• Inflation and poor public policy suggests that
3.4%
Brazil
even when Brazil emerges from recession,
the recovery will be weak. Misconduct at
Petrobas has added to the anemia.
0.3%
Argentina
2.3%
Colombia
4.2%
Chile
Venezuela
Venezuela and Argentina mired in recession
and Brazil on the edge of recession.
3.7%
Latin America
South America’s investment climate is varied.
2.4%
infrastructure, restrictive business
environments and income inequality.
-1.0%
Rest of Region*
• The long term challenges include inadequate
3.1%
* Rest of Region includes Bolivia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, and Uruguay
© 2015 IHS
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Latin America: Structural Comparison
Latin America: Construction spending (real, % change y/y)
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
2015
2016
0.0%
2017
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
Source: IHS
Total
Residential
Buildings
Infrastructure
Nonresidential structures (CAGR 2014-19)
Industrial
1.0%
3.0%
Office
Commercial
Institutional
© 2015 IHS
1.8%
2.6%
South and Central America: Risk
Latin America - total construction
Bubble size: total construction spending, 2015, billions of 2010 US$
Spending Growth, Real 2010 US$, CAGR 2014-19 (%)
6
Colombia
5
Honduras
Costa Rica
4
Bolivia
Panama
Peru
3
Uruguay
Ecuador
Global Median
2
Argentina
Chile
1
0
Venezuela
-1
Brazil
-2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5 Year construction risk
22
© 2015 IHS
Western Europe’s economic growth is strengthening
• The Eurozone economy is slowly gaining momentum, led by an acceleration in
consumer spending.
• Investment will strengthen as 2015 progresses, helped by rising business confidence,
export growth, and easing credit conditions.
• The European Central Bank is expected to continue its quantitative easing through
September 2016.
• The United Kingdom, Ireland, Sweden, Germany, and Spain will see healthy economic
growth.
• In its third bailout agreement, Greece will receive new lending of EUR86 billion. While
the near-term risk of a Eurozone exit has diminished, the five-year probability remains
close to 50%.
© 2015 IHS
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Real GDP growth in Western Europe
Real GDP
Annual percent change
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Germany
United Kingdom
2013
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
2014
France
2015
Italy
2016
Spain
2017-21
© 2015 IHS
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Western Europe has begun to recover and will gain momentum
• Western Europe’s slow recovery will gain
CAGR 2014-19
traction with favorable exchange rates and
resolution of the Greek ‘crisis’.
World
3.7%
Western Europe
• Spain and Ireland have seen dramatic
2.4%
United Kingdom
3.9%
France
1.5%
Germany
3.0%
Spain
Italy
Rest of Region*
© 2015 IHS
2.7%
0.5%
turnarounds, and German and Nordic
manufacturing sectors are performing
well. Italy and Portugal remain concerns.
• Growth strengthens as fiscal conditions
improve, credit conditions ease, pent-up
demand is released, and exports
accelerate.
2.1%
25
Western Europe: Structure type segmentation
Residential Construction Spending CAGR
2014-19
World
3.3%
Western Europe
2.5%
United Kingdom
4.7%
France
1.9%
Germany
2.6%
Spain
Italy
Rest of Region*
3.1%
0.2%
2.1%
NonResidential Structures Construction
Spending CAGR 2014-19
World
3.7%
Western Europe
2.4%
United Kingdom
3.6%
France
1.2%
Germany
3.7%
Spain
Italy
Rest of Region*
© 2015 IHS
2.5%
0.8%
1.9%
26
Western Europe losing uniformity in growth versus risk profile
Western Europe - total
Totalconstruction
Construction
Bubble size:
Size: total
Totalconstruction
Constructionspending,
Spending,2015,
2014,billions
Billionsofof2010
2010US$
US$
Spending Growth, Real 2010 US$, CAGR 2014-19 (%)
5
United Kingdom
Turkey
4
Germany
Ireland
3
Global Median
Sweden
Spain
Finland
2
Norway
Netherlands
France
Denmark
1
Portugal
Switzerland
Austria
Belgium
0
Italy
Greece
-1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5 Year Construction Risk
© 2015 IHS
27
Eastern Europe: Overview
• Real total construction spending in Eastern Europe declined 2.0% in 2014. Residential construction
increased 2.5% while nonresidential construction declined by 3.3%. Total construction spending is
expected to post a 3.9% loss in 2015, followed by a decline of 0.4% in 2016.
• The Russian economy is faltering amid slack investment activity, falling oil prices, high interest rates,
strong consumer price inflation, and virtual isolation from external financing in Western capital markets.
• Domestic demand will continue to boost Polish GDP in 2015, thanks to an improving labor market,
record-low interest rates, and disinflation.
• The combination of deep political crisis within Ukraine and tense relations with its key trading partner
and energy supplier, Russia, is taking a heavy toll on industrial output and exports, private and
government consumption, and fixed investments.
© 2015 IHS
Investment is rising thanks to EU funds, looser fiscal policy
Gross fixed investment growth
15.0
10.0
Percent
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
Bulgaria
2013
© 2015 IHS
Czech
Republic
2014
Hungary
Poland
2015
Romania
2016
Slovakia
Turkey
2017-2020
Outside Turkey most countries are facing population declines, but
rising urbanization should trigger growth in housing demand
Total population, compound
annual growth rate (%)
Urbanization rate (%)
85.0
1.5
80.0
1.0
75.0
0.5
70.0
65.0
0.0
2000-05
2015-20
© 2015 IHS
2005-10
2020-25
2010-15
Turkey
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Slovakia
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
50.0
2011
-1.0
2009
55.0
2005
-0.5
2007
60.0
Eastern Europe: Residential construction outlook
Residential Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19
3.3%
World
0.9%
Eastern Europe
2.1%
Slovakia
2.3%
Poland
3.7%
Czech Republic
Ukraine -6.5%
3.5%
Hungary
Russia
-0.5%
3.9%
Romania
Bulgaria
© 2015 IHS
1.6%
Eastern Europe: Non-res structural construction outlook
Nonresidential Structure Construction CAGR 2014-19
3.7%
World
0.2%
Eastern Europe
2.3%
Slovakia
3.1%
Poland
1.6%
Czech Republic
Ukraine -6.3%
3.7%
Hungary
Russia
Romania
Bulgaria
-2.3%
2.1%
CAGR 2014-19
3.9%
0.6%
Industrial
1.1%
Office
-0.3%
Commercial
Institutional
© 2015 IHS
-0.9%
Eastern Europe: Infrastructure construction outlook
Infrastructure Construction CAGR 2014-19
4.1%
World
1.2%
Eastern Europe
4.1%
Slovakia
2.8%
Poland
2.2%
Czech Republic
Ukraine
-1.3%
2.9%
Hungary
Russia
Romania
Bulgaria
© 2015 IHS
-0.6%
3.3%
4.8%
Eastern Europe: Risk
Eastern Europe - total construction
Bubble size: total construction spending, 2015 billions of 2010 US$
Spending Growth, Real 2010 US$, CAGR 2014-19 (%)
6
5
Bulgaria
Poland
Hungary
4
3
Romania
2
1
Slovakia
Czech Republic
0
-1
Russia
-2
-3
Ukraine
-4
-5
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
5 Year Construction Risk
© 2015 IHS
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Asia-Pacific will lead all regions in growth
• The Asia-Pacific region is a beneficiary of the decline in oil prices. China, Japan, India, and
South Korea are major net importers of oil.
• Weakness in prices of minerals and other commodities will, however, adversely affect
Indonesia, Australia, and Malaysia.
• China’s fixed investment is decelerating as the economy rebalances, slowing overall economic
growth.
• India’s economic growth is reviving and foreign investment is returning.
• Indonesia’s growth is stabilizing near 5%; capital inflows are critical to financing the country’s
significant infrastructure needs.
• The region’s outlook for consumer spending is bright, thanks to robust income growth and
deepening financial markets.
© 2015 IHS
35
Ease of doing business varies widely across Asia
2015 rank out of 189 countries
Singapore
Hong Kong
South Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
Japan
Vietnam
China
Philippines
Indonesia
Cambodia
India
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Source: World Bank Group
© 2015 IHS
36
Real GDP growth in Asia-Pacific
Real GDP
Annual percent change
10
8
6
4
2
0
China
India
2013
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
Australia
2014
2015
South Korea
2016
Indonesia
Taiwan
2017-21
© 2015 IHS
37
China’s economic growth will downshift in the long run
Real GDP and industrial production
25
Percent change
20
15
10
5
0
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Real GDP
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
2003
2008
2013
2018
2023
2028
Industrial production
© 2015 IHS
38
China’s visible hand: infrastructure continues to make gains
over real estate
Share of completed Chinese fixed-asset investment
Fixed-asset investment growth in key areas
27
70
60
Percent change year ago
25
Percent
23
21
19
50
40
30
20
10
0
17
-10
15
2006
2008
Real estate
Notes: 12-month moving average
Source: IHS
© 2015 IHS
2010
2012
2014
Infrastructure
-20
2007
Total
Notes: Non-cumulative
Source: IHS
2009
2011
Real estate
2013
2015
Infrastructure
China’s residential sales see growth in June 2015, but
construction remains moribund
Residential floor space indicators
Land development indicators
80
140
120
100
Percent change year ago
Percent change year ago
60
40
20
0
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
2009
Completions
2010
2011
2012
2013
Under construction
2014
Starts
2015
Land area under development
Land area purchased
Closing price of land
Sold
Notes: Floor space under construction is for all floor space; residential counts for about 90%.
Source: NBS
© 2015 IHS
-60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: NBS
India is outpacing China in economic growth
• Real GDP expanded 7.5% y/y in the January–March quarter, led by gains in private
consumption and fixed investment. Exports, imports, and public consumption posted declines.
• Industrial output growth remains uneven and volatile.
• Consumer price inflation rose to an eight-month high of 5.4% y/y in June, led by rising food
prices.
• With price pressures returning, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to keep monetary policy on
hold in the remainder of 2015.
• Automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors will lead growth.
• Policy reforms will slowly move forward. Much remains to be done to open markets, upgrade
infrastructure, and raise productivity.
© 2015 IHS
41
Asia Pacific: Construction Overview
• Real total construction spending in Asia Pacific increased 5.7% in 2014. Residential
construction increased 4.3% while nonresidential construction increased by 6.4%.
Total construction spending is expected to post a 4.5% gain in 2015, followed by a
gain of 4.8% in 2016.
• Japanese housing starts are likely to remain weak over the near term, even though
they have bottomed out following a drop-off of front-loaded demand as a result of
the consumption tax increase in April 2014.
• In India the announcements of new investment intentions witnessed a remarkable
surge of 80% over the previous year, spurred by positive post-election sentiment
and the government’s ongoing efforts to improve the business environment and cut
red tape.
• While policymakers are working to rein in investor activity in the Australian housing
market, residential construction keeps speeding up, mitigating the fall in
infrastructure and structures.
© 2015 IHS
Asia Pacific: Construction spending by segment
Asia Pacific: construction spending (real % change y/y)
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2015
3.0%
2016
2017
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Infrastructure
Buildings
Residential
Total
© 2015 IHS
Asia-Pacific: Residential outlook
Residential Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19
World
3.3%
Asia-Pacific
3.8%
China
Japan
4.0%
0.7%
India
South Korea
Australia
Rest of Region*
© 2015 IHS
6.7%
2.3%
2.6%
3.5%
44
Asia-Pacific: Nonresidential structures outlook
NonResidential Structures Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19
World
3.7%
Asia-Pacific
5.0%
China
4.9%
Japan
3.8%
India
8.2%
South Korea
Australia
Rest of Region*
© 2015 IHS
2.6%
1.7%
5.3%
45
Asia-Pacific: Infrastructure outlook
Infrastructure Construction Spending CAGR 2014-19
World
4.1%
Asia-Pacific
6.0%
China
8.1%
Japan
3.3%
India
11.3%
South Korea
Australia
Rest of Region*
© 2015 IHS
2.7%
1.1%
5.1%
46
Asia Pacific: Opportunity vs. risk
Asia Pacific - total construction
Bubble size: total construction spending, 2015 billions of 2010 US$
Spending Growth, Real 2010 US$, CAGR 2014-19 (%)
10
© 2015 IHS
9
India
8
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
7
Indonesia
6
Vietnam
Pakistan
5
Malaysia
4
Singapore
China
Japan
Philippines
Thailand
Global Median
3
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Korea
2
New Zealand
1
Australia
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
5 Year Construction Risk
30
35
40
45
The Middle East and North Africa
• The drop in oil prices, regional political instability, and war with the Islamic State are restraining
economic growth.
• Lower oil prices are hurting Iran, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
and Libya, but helping Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia.
• Whereas Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE have strong reserves, the finances of Iran, Libya,
and Algeria are strained.
• The nuclear agreement and likely lifting of sanctions in 2016 will lead to an upward revision in
the forecast of Iran’s economic growth.
• Egypt’s economy is recovering, but political and security risks remain.
• Addressing job growth, economic diversification, and competitiveness will be critical to regional
stability in the long run.
© 2015 IHS
48
Sub-Saharan Africa will sustain rapid growth
• Falling commodity export revenues are restraining growth in 2015.
• Lower oil prices are helping South Africa and Zambia, but hurting Nigeria, Angola, and
Mozambique.
• Expanding domestic markets, income gains, and regional integration will support long-term
economic growth.
• Macroeconomic management is improving substantially, poverty is declining, and foreign direct
investment is rising.
• Poor infrastructure (especially power generation), political instability, and corruption remain
obstacles to economic development.
• With large fiscal and current-account deficits and a challenging business environment, South
Africa is vulnerable to capital flight.
© 2015 IHS
49
Middle East and Africa: Construction outlook
Healthy growth in all segments
Middle East & Africa: Construction Spending (real, percent change y/y)
World
Middle East and Africa
Saudi Arabia
2015
South Africa
2016
2017
United Arab Emirates
Middle East and Africa: construction spending (real % change y/y)
Iran
5.0%
4.5%
Israel
4.0%
3.5%
Rest of Region*
3.0%
Source: IHS
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
© 2014 IHS
Infrastructure segments, CAGR 2014-19
2.5%
2015
2.0%
2016
1.5%
2017
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
* Rest of Region includes Egypt, Kenya, Senegal, Tunisia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar
© 2015 IHS
Infrastructure
4%
Buildings
Energy
Residential
6%
Transportation
Total
6%
Public Health
Middle Eastern construction markets have edged up in risk,
but down in growth
Middle East and Africa - total construction
Bubble size: total construction spending, 2015 billions of 2010 US$
Spending Growth, Real 2010 US$, CAGR 2014-19 (%)
12
Qatar
10
Senegal
Nigeria
8
Morocco
Cameroon
Jordan
6
Saudi Arabia
4
Oman
Tunisia
South Africa
Israel
2
Egypt
Kenya
Global Median
Kuwait
Iran
Bahrain
0
United Arab Emirates
-2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
5 Year Construction Risk
© 2015 IHS
51
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