Transcript DMI - In+

FLAD, Innovation and Productivity for
Portugal
2002, June, 26th
Metabolic Transitions in Portugal
Paulo Ferrão
IN+ - Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research
IST - Instituto Superior Técnico
http://in3.dem.ist.utl.pt
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Motivation
Understanding the Economy metabolism,
through Materials Flows Analysis, may contribute
to formulate sustainable policies at a national,
regional and sectoral level.
Is the Portuguese economy a transitional
economy, in transition ?
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Portuguese Data
Spatial boundary: Continental Portugal and Azores and
Madeira Archipelagos
Years: 1960 to 1998
Sources:
DMI:
National Statistic Institute (INE)
Geological and Mining Institute (IGM)
Forestery Agency (DGF)
Population, GDP: OECD’s National Accounts publications
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Portuguese DMI: Data
DMI categories:
Imported
Metals and its products
Food, beverage products
Wood, cork and its products
Vegetable products
Products from chemical
industry and other industries
Live animals and animal
products
Other
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Portuguese DMI: Data
DMI categories:
Domestic
Non-renewable:
Fuel ores
Metallic ores
Stone, clay, sand
Non-metallic ores
Marine salt
Renewable:
Agricultural crops
Grazing
Forest (wood, cork)
Fishing, Hunting
Honey, Beeswax
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Portuguese Economy: IMPORTS
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1994
1995
1996
Food and agricultural products
Chemical products
Textiles. clothing and footwear
Machinery
Others
1997
1998
1999
2000
Mineral fuels. lubricants
Leather manufac.wood. cork and paper
Metal ores and metals (except iron)
Transport equipment
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Portuguese Economy: Exports
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1994
1995
1996
Food and agricultural products
Chemical products
Leather manuf, leather and textiles
Metal ores and metals (except iron)
Transport equipment
1997
1998
1999
2000
Mineral fuels, lubricants
Wood, cork and paper
Clothing and footwear
Machinery
Others
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Portuguese Economy:
Imports and Exports
Source : Portuguese Environmental Report, 1999
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Scope
Is Portugal in
transition, Why ?
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The Portuguese case study
(1988-1997)
We are in
transition!
What
type?
Adapted from Bringezu and Schütz, 2000, Total Material Requirement of the European Union,
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European Environment Agency, Technical report No 55.
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Portuguese DMI: Evolution
“We need revolution, not
evolution”, ...may be.
1998 DMI: 174 million ton, 18 ton per capita
Significative growth 1960-1998: 483% per capita
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Portuguese DMI: Domestic/Imported
200.000
1000 ton
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
Domestic - Non-Renewable
Domestic - Renewable
Imports
• Almost all non-renewable domestic extraction is due to Rock,
Clay and Clay extraction for construction
•Imports: mainly fossil fuels
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Portuguese DMI: Domestic contr.
Domestic DMI
(1000 t)
Non-renewable
1960
1970
1980
1990
1998
5298,4
14789,1
40665,3
50205,1
94109,4
1673,7
3357,9
266,8
1462,9
13119,0
207,2
1222,7
39225,0
217,6
1825,6
48275,0
104,5
1278,6
92751,8
79,0
Renewable
21700
23562,8
23566
26810,9
30725,2
Plant
Animal
21340,8
359,2
23192,5
370,3
23287,1
278,9
26492,2
318,7
30511,9
213,3
26998,5
38351,9
64231,4
77015,9
124834,7
Ores
Stone, clay, sand
Marine salt
Total
Domestic materials: Stone, clay, sand
Biomass
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Portuguese Transition, based on
rock, clay and sand
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3000
Here is the
impact of
revolutions,
and why there
is transition
2500
2000
1500
BAU
1000
500
0
1960
1965
Total DMI
1970
1975
1980
1985
Domestic DMI - Rock, Clay and Sand
1990
1995
Imports
2000
Exports
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Material Flows Interactions
Decomposition analysis: Malaska (1998)*
 GDP   MF 
MF  POP  


 POP   GDP 
Sustainability and
Production Identity
 EMP   MF 
MF  POP  


POP
EMP

 

Sustainability and
Employment Identity
Sustainable development associated to MF < 0
* Moll, 1999, Reducing Societal Metabolism. A Sustainable Development Analysis
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Residual-free DMI decomposition
Contributions calculated by Logarithmic Mean Divisia
Index Method (Chung and Rhee, 2000)*:
 GDP

 MF
 POPt 


POPt 
GDP t
  L() ln 
MF  L() ln 

L
(

)
ln


 MF GDP
 POP0 
 GDP POP 
0

0 






 MFt  MF0 

L()  
 ln MFt MF0  
* A Residual-free Decomposition of the Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions
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DMI Decomposition
DMI variation for each temporal period (%)
Contributions
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-1998
POP
1,3
15,2
1,5
0,9
GDP/POP
75,3
47,0
31,6
30,2
DMI/GDP
-24,5
13,4
-1,4
27,2
DMI
52,2
75,6
31,7
58,2
POP
1,3
15,2
1,5
0,9
EMP/POP
4,2
3,5
16,8
-1,4
DMI/EMP
46,6
56,9
13,3
58,7
Note: Percent variation referring to the value of DMI in the first year of
each period. GDP at constant prices.
• DMI increases in each period
Production equation:
Employment equation:
Main effect: GDP/POP increases
DMI/GDP decreases in 1960 and 1980 decades
Main effect: DMI/EMP increases
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International disaggregation
Employment in construction
1985-1996
DMI/GDP
80
DMI
60
DMI/EMP
40
20
0
Denmark Finland
France
Greece
Irland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Sw eden
UK
-20
-40
-60
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Is Portugal
transitional ?
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International Comparisons
Imports and Exports vs. DMI
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Portugal
No ?
60%
(%, share DMI)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
GDP per capita
Imports (% DMI)
Exports (% DMI)
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Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1
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DMI vs. GDP
Portugal
Direct Material Input (DMI)
DMI per capita (ton)
Well, coherently growing...
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14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1.000
R2 = 0,9597
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
GDP per capita (US$, 1990)
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Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1
A transitional economy: Material Intensity
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(1960=100)
Portugal
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Yes ?
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
DMI
GDP (US$, 1990)
Material intensity (DMI/GDP)
Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1
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Sectoral
transition in
environment,
GWP ?
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CO2 origin
CO2 Origin
70.000
60.000
CO2 (Gg)
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Year
Liquid fuels
Solid fuels
Natural gas
• The fuel consumption in Portugal is especially made by petroleum
derivates
• In 1997, natural gas was introduced
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Input-Output Analysis
Direct and indirect costs of the most important sectors to fulfil the total demand in 1993 and 1995
Indirect 93
Direct 93
Indirect 95
Direct 95
1. Textile & clothing industry
12000
2. Construction
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8
3. Transport vehicles and equipment
4. Agriculture & hunting
5. Chemical products
8000
106 Euros
21 19
24
22
23
20
6. Non-commercial services of Public
Administration
30 30
7. Financial services
8. Services rendered for companies
4000
9. Petroleum
10.Restaurants & Hotels
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Economic Sectors
7
8
9
10
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GNP and GWP per economic sector for the years of 1993
and 1995
1. Textile & clothing industry
60
2. Construction
GNP & GWP x Sector

GNP
GWP
3. Transport vehicles and
equipment
40
Percentage
4. Agriculture & hunting
5. Chemical products
20
6. Non-commercial services of
Public Administration
0
7. Financial services
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Economic Sector
-20
7
8
9
10
8. Services rendered for
companies
9. Petroleum
10.Restaurants & Hotels
-40
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Environmental sustainability of the sectors (increase of GNP
versus increase of GWP)
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1. Textile & clothing industry
7
20
3
2
% GWP
Non-sustainable
2. Construction
3. Transport vehicles and equipment
Weak Sustainability
5
1
0
-40
-20
0
9
84
Strong Sustainability
-20
5. Chemical products
Total
% GNP 20
4. Agriculture & hunting
40
6. Financial services
7. Services rendered for companies
8.
Petroleum
9. Restaurants & Hotels
6
-40
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Scales and tools
to measure
transition ?
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FLAME MORPHOLOGY
~
~
 (  u" v" )
p
~ GAMC
~– 5V
V
th Course: Global
U
V
- Automotive Technology
x
r
x
r
~ "2
1 (r  ~
v"2 )  w
r
r
r
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From Turbulence to MFA
The large scales
transport energy.
Stretching promotes
faster, smaller and
dissipative eddies.
Stretching occurs in
shear layers, detemined
by velocity gradients.
The large scales transport
materials, promote stocks().
Market promotes local, faster
flows where materials
dispersion occurs.
Dissipation and recyclability
is determined by price,
regulatory and cultural
gradients.
more complex!
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Identification of large-scale motions
Identification of materials motion (e.g. copper)
(metabolism length scales)
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Vorticidade
4D
(0,0)
ref.[m/s]
(0.6,-36.5)
4D
4D
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TE1B_V 03
12000
4000
8000
2000
4000
0
0
-2000
-4000
-4000
-8000
-6000
-12000
30
3D
24
3D
3D
6000
18
12
Uconv=36.5m/s
2D
1/s
6
2D
-3
0
r/d
3
2D
0.75
-3
0
6.00
-3
r/d
3
11.25
0
r/d
3
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Time series analysis
Physical
Trade Balance (PTB)
Physical Trade Balance (PTB)
1000 ton
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Total PTB
Mineral Products
Vegetable Products
• Physical Trade Balance (PTB) = Imports - Exports
• The Mineral products imported are essentially fuels
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Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)
(1000 ton)
Portugal
200.000
180.000
160.000
140.000
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
DMI
DMC
• Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) = DMI - Exports
• Almost all the material inputs in the Portuguese economy are for
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domestic consumption
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DPO to air (CO2) and to land (MSW)
Portugal
compared
to DMI
200.000
1000 ton
150.000
100.000
Addition to stock
50.000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
DPO to land (MSW)
DPO to air (CO2)
Total DMI
DMI ~DMC, is substantially bigger than DPO to air (CO2) and to land
(MSW), and since CO2 emissions are normally the major part of the total
DPO, probably a great part of the material inputs are accumulating in
stocks (in this case, infrastructures)
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Dynamic analysis, auto and cross
correlations in time series
(1990=100)
Portugal
170,0
Metabolism time scale, from infraestructure
160,0
150,0
140,0
130,0
120,0
110,0
100,0
90,0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
DPO to land (MSW)
DPO to air (CO2)
Total DMI
GDP (US$, 1990)
to use
Year
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The contribution of eco-design,
a case-study in the auto-industry.
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-2
Solid w aste
Energy
Pesticides
Summer smog
Winter smog
Carcinogeny
Heavy metals
Eutrophication
8
Acidification
10
Ozone
Greenhouse
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LCA
12
Use
End of life
Production
6
4
2
0
LCA MPV Case Study (IST data)
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Design-Environment Interactions
Technological
Solutions
Design
Materials
Selection
Power Train
Technology
Production
Elv
Processing
Recyclability
Use
Pollutants
Emissions
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EU DIRECTIVE PROPOSAL ON ELV
VEHICLE
M1, N1
USE
85% (2006)
95% (2015)
Recovery
Recycling
ELV
80% (2006)
85% (2015)
Re-use
ELV
Collection
Disposal
ELV
Treatment
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ELV processing infrastructure
Component suppliers
Manufacturer
Component suppliers
Raw material producers
Raw material producers
Fluids
Glass
Re-use
Components
Plastics
Dismantler
Recycling
Rubber
Hulk
Siderurgy
Steel
Shredder
Foundry
Cables
Non-ferr met..
ASR
Energy recovery
Landfill
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Current recycling effectiveness
35%
Lead
30%
Copper
25%
20%
Aluminum
15%
Glass
10%
Rubber
5%
Plastics
R
R
R
Steel
Seats & Trims
Power train
R
Electric
R
Body Complete
0%
Chassis
% total car weight
40%
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Contributions to Landfill
Steel
11%
Glass
33%
Plastics
47%
Rubber
9%
Chassis
16%
Seats & Trims
35%
Electric
7%
Power train
7%
Body
Complete
35%
Rubber
26%
Steel
4%
Plastics
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70%
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Construção de Produtos Optimizando a Reciclagem.
Caixa do filtro de ar do BMW Z3.
Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento
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Reciclagem na Produção.
Consola Central do BMW Série 5.
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- Material: ABS + PC.
- Quota de Reciclados:
100% mat. moído ou
20% mat. reciclado sem laca.
- Quantidade: aprox. 200 t/a.
O plástico é injectado e recebe uma película sobre a superfície.
Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento
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Software de ecodesign para
componentes automóveis
End-of-life
Production
Use
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Inertes “leves”
Fragmentador
ABCD
c1 = 2
P2 = -6
c3 = 1.5
BC
P3 = -3
c4 = 1
Resíduos
Separador de ASR
Plásticos
Incineração
c2 = 1.5
Metais não
ferrosos
Vidros
Aterro
BCD
Separador metais
não ferrosos
Inertes
P1 = -7
Inertes
pesados
Desmantelador Carcaça
Substâncias
tóxicas
VFV
Materials para
reciclagem
ELV processing
infra-estrutucture
Metais
ferrosos
Peças para
reutilização
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Design
for
Recycling
BD
P4 = -1.5
c5 = 1.5
D
C
B
A
P5 = -3.5
P6 = -1.5
P7 = 2.5
P8 = 4
Optimization model for ELV
processing
Minimum cost fulfilling regulatory requirements
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Conclusions
1960-1998: Significative DMI growth, no absolute
dematerialization.
DMI originated mainly from domestic environment
Strong dependence on Stone, clay and sand, associated to
infrastructures development.
Transitional Economy in some indicators, material intensity.
Two complementary approaches to analyze time and length
scales of the economy metabolism.
Ecodesign may contribute to this aim, either environmentally
and economically
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