Transcript here

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Presentation to the NZMEBC by
Rod Harris, New Zealand Ambassador to Saudi
Arabia/Qatar/Kuwait/Oman and Bahrain
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* Plan to cover New Zealand’s relationships with the
GCC states – including opportunities – and what we
are doing to capitalise on these
* The NZInc Footprint and how we can work for you
* Some thoughts about doing business in the Gulf
* Questions
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Selected NZ top 20 trading partners
Australia
China
USA
Japan
GCC (as a collective 6)
Korea
Singapore
Saudi Arabia
Taiwan
Indonesia
France
UAE
India
Qatar
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Total bilateral trade 2011
NZ$ millions
18,217
13,326
9,023
6,362
5,069
3,129
2,976
1,610
1,590
1,585
1,371
1,335
1,318
1,067
* Strategic
partner for New Zealand – key energy supplier;
location into broader MENA region; transport links (Emirates,
Etihad and potentially Qatar); large NZ expat presence.
* Government focus on deepening relations in range of areas –
visits by Governor-General, 3 Ministers (McCully, Heatley and
Joyce) and NZTE CEO to region in the last 12 months – plus
inward Ministerial visit (Education) from Oman
* The GCC (collective) was NZ’s 5th largest trading partner in 2011
* Bilateral goods trade to Dec 11: NZ$5 billion+ with 20% growth
in NZ exports and 44% growth in imports.
* 3 of NZ’s top 20 trading partners (KSA, UAE and Qatar) and solid
growth with Kuwait and Oman.
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Total Trade NZ GCC 2009-2011
5,500.00
5,000.00
4,500.00
NZ $ Millions
4,000.00
GCC (group)
3,500.00
KSA
3,000.00
UAE
2,500.00
Qatar
2,000.00
Kuwait
1,500.00
Oman
1,000.00
Bahrain
500.00
2009
2010
Year
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2011
* Visa-free access for 90 days for all GCC nationals
* Student numbers strong – approx. 8,000 at any one time
– significant $$$ value to NZ
* Services firms securing contracts
* New areas such as food security, science and investment
* This year, two education agreements signed with Oman,
one almost finalised with Qatar and potential for AirServices Agreement with Qatar.
* Building relations with influential decision makers
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* Current nominal GDP of USD 580 billion - projected to hit US$830 billion
by 2016. Forecast GDP growth of 4-6% for next 7-10 years
* US$800
billion of construction sector spending in the period to 2020
(public and private) is planned, including US$125 billion on energy and
water plants, NZ$80 billion on affordable housing, US$95 billion on rail,
airport and communications facilities.
* Significant spending planned in education, healthcare and tourism
* Foreign exchange reserves projected at US$824 billion by 2016.
* Youth bulge. Need to provide education, employment, housing
and
healthcare – median age 25.
* Saudi agricultural imports
will increase by 105% to US$35.2 billion by
2020. 5% year on year household spending increases on food are
projected.
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* Qatar’s current nominal GDP is US$201 billion. Qatar’s GDP per capita
(including guest workers) is over US$80,000, one of the highest in the
world.
* GDP growth projected at around 6.4% at until least 2016.
* Within the next seven years, Qatar is committed to completing at least
US$80 billion worth of infrastructure projects. This includes US$35
billion on railways, US$14 billion on the new Doha international airport,
US$20 billion on roads and US$5 billion on a new deep-water port.
* Ongoing expansion of Qatar Airways network – interest in NZ routes.
* Heavy investments in RST and Food Security – opportunities for NZ
* Areas of particular relevance to New Zealand may include the
construction sector, ICT, aviation technology, port management services
and infrastructure, health, education – and 2022 World Cup.
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* Omani GDP in 2012 is projected at US$72.4 billion.
The manufacturing,
agriculture and tourism sectors are increasingly important as non-oil
drivers of growth.
* Economic
activity is accelerating. Driven by new oil extraction
technologies and increasing government spending, overall real GDP
growth was around 5% in 2011 with 6.4% growth in the nonhydrocarbon sector.
* Oman’s
population is 3.37 million with GDP per capita currently
US$26,000 at PPP.
* 5-year
development plan focuses on tourism, industry/manufacturing,
agriculture and fisheries sectors – real potential for collaboration with
NZ in these sectors.
* Education cooperation - two agreements with NZ signed in 2012
* New Zealand firms have played leading roles in the design and building
of key projects in Muscat – and New Zealand has a strong reputation in
Oman.
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* Kuwait’s very healthy
financials (for 2012: a projected US$25 billion
budget surplus and current account balance of US$72 billion; and a SWF
of US$296 billion) and extensive infrastructure investment plans
(US$108 billion) lead some to dub it the “sleeping giant”
* GDP growth projected at 5% p.a. over next five years
* Ongoing political (parliamentary) challenges have slowed developments.
* Kuwait is establishing major downstream multi-billion dollar oil
investments in China, Vietnam and India and owns significant portfolios
of European property investments.
* A highly educated, internationalised and relatively young Kuwaiti
population (42% under 25) has high social and economic expectations
and sophisticated consumer tastes. However, Kuwait’s obesity rate is
one of the highest in the world.
* NZ has a small but active resident population who are active in business
and the professions (e.g. management, engineers, architects) and willing
to provide advice and contacts to incoming NZ businesses.
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* Bahrain GDP in 2011 was US$25.8 billion. Real GDP growth will
average 3.5% in 2012-16. GDP per capita was US$24.515 in 2011.
* Key industries are hydrocarbons, petrochemicals products,
aluminium and services – esp Islamic finance and insurance.
* Of all GCC states, Bahrain was most affected by political unrest
inspired by the ‘Arab Spring’ in 2011. Bahrain is still coping with the
aftermath of these events.
* Bahrain remains a viable trade and economic partner for New
Zealand, given its small size and relative ease of doing business.
Bahrain provides an important services hub for and access to, Saudi
Arabia’s rich Eastern Province.
* NZ “brand” understood and respected due to efforts on the
establishment of the Bahrain Polytechnic and long-term NZ
engagement with the country.
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* Embassy
been operational for over one year – not our
traditional model and with a narrower focus
* The key transport and logistics hub for NZ goods/services
to MENA and beyond
* Emirates is NZ’s largest airline by arrivals outside the
Australasian carriers
* Entry point to the GCC for most New Zealand companies /
exporters
* Growth market - 16th largest export market.
* Strong tourism sector supports NZ F&B trade.
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* Large current
account and budget surpluses in the intermediate term
and projected GDP growth of around 6%
* Total GCC GDP may double to US$3 trillion by 2020
* Ongoing public sector investments in infrastructure, skills and capacity
building and headline projects – ie Saudi building/upgrading 28 airports,
Kuwait and Qatar huge investment programmes
* The value of assets under management in SWFs in the GCC is about US$
1.5 trillion. GCC States are estimated to hold 45% of the value of global
SWFs.
* Use of SWF assets to invest in local infrastructure and the purchase of
strategic foreign assets
* GCC population is projected to reach 58 million by 2020, a growth rate
of round 1.7%.
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* New Zealand considering strategic dialogue with the GCC to
give overarching political/economic and cultural dimension
* Education remains a real focus – with RST opportunities
increasing
* Food security – range of possibilities –from investment in
supply chain, through to supporting science R&D
* Tourism – untapped potential – and high-tourist spending
patterns of GCC visitors
* Health care and health IT
* Construction – niche opportunities/partnerships
* NZ-GCC FTA remains on the table
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* Strong NZInc presence
* More joined up approach taking shape
* NZ Embassies in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
* NZTE in Dubai – with new Regional
Director
appointment to follow – along with INZ Regional
Office
* ENZ and Defence in Riyadh
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* Relationships matter – and take time
* Market evaluation is important
* Finding the right partner – we can sometimes help
* Payment times can be long – need to be well
capitalised if looking at establishment
* Legal advice is crucial – use local specialists
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* Hosting events
* Introductions
* Advice
* Linkages with MEBC
and business networks in the
Gulf – ie MIENZ and SANZBN
* Relationships with the media
* Support from resident NZers wanting to help firms
secure contracts
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* Thank you
* Key staff can be contacted at:
* [email protected] (RIY)
* [email protected] (Abu Dhabi)
* [email protected] (RIY)
* [email protected] (RIY)
* [email protected] (NZTE)
* [email protected] (Education Counsellor)
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