Transcript Agricultural Transformation and Youth Employment in

Agricultural Transformation and Youth
Employment in Africa: A Nigerian Case Study
By
Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong
Chinonso Etumnu
Fourth Annual Conference on Regional Integration in Africa (ACRIA 4), Abidjan,
Cote d’Ivoire, July 5, 2013.
Background-Agriculture in Africa
• About 70% of sub-Saharan Africans live in poverty based on
head count ratio of $2 per day
• A majority of the poor in SSA live in rural areas and they
depend on agriculture for their livelihood
• The role of agricultural growth in poverty alleviation seems
obvious
• How can agriculture be transformed to reduce poverty?
Background - Youth Unemployment
• Youth unemployment rate is more than twice the adult
unemployment rate in most countries in SSA
• SSA has the youngest and fastest growing population
in the world; over 330 million people aged between 15
and 25, of whom about 195 million currently live in
rural areas
• Demographic transition presents an opportunity for
SSA to reap the demographic dividend
Background
• Generating employment for young people and
promoting agricultural productivity be perceived as
complementary development efforts which will have
positive impacts on economic and social stability in the
region.
Background
• Given the relatively large agricultural sector in African
countries and the relatively slow growth rate (and
even slower pace of employment generation) of the
industrial sector, is it possible to turn to the
agricultural sector to generate employment for the
population generally and for the youth in particular?
CAADP (African Union)---ATA (Nigeria)
• CAADP is to help AU member states spur and sustain
economic growth through agricultural-led development
• ATA aims to create 3.5 million jobs especially for
youths, provide over 2 billion dollars in income for
farmers and increase the production of key staples by
20 million metric tons to ensure food security
Research Questions
• What is the potential of the agricultural sector to
generate employment for the youth of Nigeria?
• Which types of jobs can be created for the youth under
the ATA? what levels along the value chains will these
jobs be created?
• Which agricultural products (commodities) are likely to
create the most jobs for the youth?
Definition
• In this study, we define agriculture to include
activities related to the production, processing,
transporting, storage and marketing of
agricultural output as well as the provision of
inputs into agriculture
Role of Agriculture in the Nigerian
Economy
• Size of the agriculture sector (% of GDP)
Activity Sector 19601970
Building
Services
Trade
Industry
Agriculture
5
15
13
12
55
19711980
19811990
9
9
20
31
24
2
10
14
41
32
• CBN, Statistical Bulletin, 2011.
1991- 20012000 2011
2
12
14
39
34
2
16
16
25
41
Role of agriculture in the Nigerian
Economy
• GDP growth accounting by sectors (in %)
Period
gdpgrow
wagrgrow
windgrow
wbcgrow
wtragrow
wsergrow
1961-65
4.84
1.09
1.98
0.41
0.83
1.00
1966-70
7.60
0.82
4.43
0.48
0.64
2.86
1971-75
23.68
7.36
10.83
1.77
4.69
3.35
1976-80
1981-85
1986-90
3.19
-0.33
5.99
-0.62
1.17
1.80
-1.29
-0.14
2.81
0.94
-0.51
0.10
0.55
-0.08
0.76
0.21
-0.27
0.78
1991-95
1.02
0.89
-0.52
0.07
0.26
0.38
1996-00
3.20
1.47
0.99
0.08
0.25
0.50
2001-05
11.40
6.80
1.87
0.11
1.64
2.58
2006-11
6.81
2.65
0.00
0.23
2.26
1.89
CBN Statistical Bulletin, 2011.
Role of Agriculture in the Nigerian
Economy
• Food imports are currently increasing at an unsustainable
rate of 11% per annum. Nigeria’s top 4 food imports are
•
•
•
•
Wheat --- $4billion per annum
Rice-------$2billion per annum
Sugar-----$217 million per annum
Fish-------$97 million per annum (Adesina, 2012)
• Nigeria is importing what it can produce which displaces local
production and creates rising unemployment
• Nigeria has abundant land (40% utilization), water and
labour resources (over 54 million in workforce), and
favourable climatic conditions suited for agricultural
production and food import substitution
Youth Employment in Agriculture
Programme
• Value can be added at every stage of production from
farm (through processing, warehousing, packaging,
transporting, wholesaling, distribution, retailing) to
table
• In addition, agricultural transformation requires the
need for new and improved inputs which in turn have
to be researched, produced, and distributed to farmers
and agro-processes.
• More jobs can be created along these value chains,
along with those to be created in farming.
Performance Indicators of the ATA
Priority Crops/
Fertilizers
Indicators
As at 2010
By 2015
Rice
Paddy
High quality processed rice
Jobs
3.4 million MT
Negligible
7.4 million MT
2.5 million MT
1 million jobs
Cassava
Cassava tubers
Yield
Jobs
34 million MT
12.5 MT/Ha
51 million MT
25 million MT
1.2 million jobs
Fertilizer
Number of farmers reached
550,000
20,000,000
Cocoa
Cocoa beans
Yield
Jobs
250,000MT
11.3million MT
2.5 MT/Ha
150,000
Cotton
Cotton Lintlint
Yield
Jobs
20,000MT
150Kg/Ha
140,000MT
400kg/Ha
Rice Transformation Plan
(Adesina, 2012)
Recommendations
• Efforts to enhance agricultural growth and those to create
employment for young people should be complementary
• The government should create enabling environment to
promote investments in agriculture
• The youth should be given ample opportunity to make inputs in
the design of policy models
• The agricultural value chain should be private sector driven and
agriculture treated as a business
Conclusion
• Agricultural transformation can be a mechanism for
creating employment for the youth in Africa
• Public opinion already holds that the Nigerian
agricultural sector is becoming more viable with some
good level of increase in youth employment within the
enhanced agricultural value chain
Thank you for your
attention.