Transcript Macro Factors

ECONOMIC MACRO FACTORS vs ADULTS’
LEARNING MOTIVATIONS
Center for the Advancement
of Women Foundation
Innovations in Adult Learning IMAL
Grundtvig Learning Partnerships,
4th Partners Meeting
Zaragoza, 23-24 October 2014
Learning Motivations:
Macro Factors - POLAND
POLISH MACRO FACTORS
Socio-economic context – Poland (1)
 The post-WW II history of Poland splits in two phases: communist regime
(since 1945) and III-rd Republic (since 1989). The WW II itself had a
tremendous impact as well:
 Population: Poland lost 11 million (35%) of the population of 35 million: 6,03 million killed (17,3% the highest % of all countries), other 5 million either emigrated or had their citizenship changed due
to borders changes as Poland lost 1/3 of it’s former territory
 Economy: centrally planned economy led to total bancrupcy of the system, resulting in free eletions
on the 4th of June 1989 & the victory of the SOLIDARITY; this happened behind the iron curtain,
before the Berlin Wall fall, with 100 000 Russian troops still in the country....
 Education & Science – to large extent disconnected from world developments and trends due to the
political & budgetary constraints; strict limits on the number of students resulting in 1989 with only
7% of the population with tertiary education, preferential treatment of the working class offspring
and restrcitions for these of intelligentsia.
 So called People’s Democratic System – a distorted concept
 The institutional/legal systems – window dressing;dominating Communist Party rule
 Therefore the overall statistics for Poland without breaking into age groups
& analysis of particular circumstances dim and distort the picture
POLISH MACRO FACTORS
Socio-economic context – Poland (2)
 Since joining the EU in 2004 Polish GDP grew from 39% EU
average to 68% in 2013; with purchasing power of 74%
 GDP size-wise it is today the 8th economy in the UE
 Budget surplus of 37% has been obtained for the Ist Quarter
of 2014 and the government debt is 49,5% compared to 88%
EU-28 average
 Poland has not suffered from the crisis of 2008 to the extent
experienced by all other EU countries, remaining „a green
island” till today
„green island” 2009
The % of population with tertiary education in the age
group 30-34; Poland and EU 27 in the period 2000-2010.
(Eurostat,March 2013)
Figures and facts
BUT: when we take a look from a different angle we see the magic of
statistics. The so far achieved progress cannot continue at the same
speed if some macro-factors do not change.
1. Polish economy is based on imported technologies .Little is
invested in R&D by companies and the state, including in
education
2. The size of the economy takes the impressive 8th place, but
productivity is low , circa 60% of the EU average.
3. Education is not properly integrated with market needs and
industry requirements
4. Low productivity equals low GDP per capita. With low
productivity wages MUST be low.
5. Low productivity combined with high unemployment & low
economic activity additionally affect the GDP per capita figure.
6. Open labour markets in EU instigate emigration.
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by sector, 2007 and 2012
Population, education & living conditons
Poland scores close the EU-28 average:
 Age groups 15> & <65 respectively 15% & 14,2% as
compared to EU-28: 15,6% & 18,2%
 Education attainment 3-6 levels: M 83,2 & F 84,6%; in
younger age group F much higher than M
 Early leavers: M 7,9% & F 3,2%, one of the lowest
 Birth rate: 1,30 - 1,58; Poland scores THE LOWEST
 Life expectancy: M 72,7 & F 83,2 ( EU-28: 77,5 & 83,1)
Economic activity
 In this aspect Poland with it’s figure of 60% has some work to
do to reach the EU average of 64,1% ; (some tables show for
Poland 64,8%! due to the methodological differences, for
example age brackets 15-64 or 20-64).
 Interestingly enough the female economic activity indicator
is only 0,7% lower from UE average for women. It has
increased in the last 6 years by nearly 10%.
Economic activity
Employment rates
Poland has managed to lower the unemployment
rate to 9,9% ; this figure shows that shortages of
workforce on the labour market are likely to surface
in foreseable future
Roughly half of the unemployed are long-term
The unemployment rate among young people (1524) for June 2014 is 23,1% , and dropped from
29,20% in March 2013.
GDP per capita and salary level
• The figures in the next slide explain the
correlation between opportunities for the
young and the emigration phenomenen that
among EU-28 has affected stronger only
Romania (2,4 million people)
GDP per capita & salary level
EMIGRATON
 Since 2004 over 2 million, mainly young
 Nearly 10% of the Polish occupationally active population,
with families
Results:
Accelerated population aging
Loss for the state budget
Growing deficit of the national social security system
(pensions)
Lack of workforce in certain industries; not obvious for
the economy at large due to still high unemployment rate
IN EFFECT : Slowing down economic growth
Emigration: motivations
•
•
•
•
Stability of work
Easier start and career development
Higher wages
Easier living & working conditions (services, social
systems/welfare states, bureacracy, legislation,
courts etc.)
The most pressing challenges for Poland
GENERAL GOAL
• to assure economic growth and good living/ working
conditions for the pulation at large
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
• To increase investment in R&D
• To enhance coopertaion between busienss & educational
institutions
• To increase the % of people economically active
• To increase the % of 30-40 years old population with tertiary
education
• To reduce emigration levels and instigate returns
• To increase trust in various institutions
POLAND MACRO FACTORS
Europe 2020 and national targets vs current situation
Europe 2020 headline targets
Current situation
in Poland (2012)
National 2020
target in the NRP
3% of EU's GDP to be invested in research
and development
1.26% (2010)
1.7%
75% of the population aged 20-64 should
be employed
64,8% (2012)
71%
Reducing early school leaving to less
than 10%
5,4% (2012)
4,5%
At least 40% of 30-34 year old
completing tertiary or equivalent
education
35.3% (2011)
45%
Reducing the number of people in or at
risk of poverty or exclusion by at least 20
million
10,4 million people
(2010)
1,5 million people
lifted out of poverty
Trust on Institution
Institution
The Grand Orchestra of Christmas Charity
Polish Red Cross
Caritas
The Army
Scouts
Roman Catholic Church
The Police
The Ombudsman (woman! Irena Lipowicz)
Local goverments
EU
NATO
The UN
Do you in general trust the
following institutions or not?
(2012)
YES
NO
Hard to say
89
7
4
81
10
9
80
13
7
74
15
11
70
9
21
69
26
5
65
28
7
60
16
24
58
31
11
57
26
16
57
20
23
57
17
26
Trust on Institution
Institution
Historical Memorial Institute
Courts
Civil servants
TV
The Government
Large companies
Newspapers
Churches, other denominations
Labour Unions
Upper & Lower Chambers of the Parliament
Political parties
Do you in general trust the following
institutions or not? (2012)
YES
NO
Hard to say
55
22
23
45
44
11
45
41
14
44
49
8
39
49
12
35
35
30
34
55
11
30
41
29
29
36
35
29
55
15
20
65
15
Economic macro factors vs adults’
learning motivations, poland
Thank you for your attention.
Anna Jancewicz