Transcript Regional Cooperation in South Asia

Regional Cooperation in South Asia:
Looking Back and Ways Forward
U.S. Foreign Policy Summer Institute
Bard College, New York
July 24, 2015
Prem Raj Khanal, Lecturer
Master’s Program in International Relations and
Diplomacy, Tribhuvan University, Nepal
[email protected]
OUTLINE
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What is SAARC?
Brief history of SAARC
Achievements of SAARC
Challenges and difficulties of deeper regional
cooperation in South Asia
• What next: Future of SAARC
South Asia
South Asia
SAARC: Introduction
• Established on 8 December 1985 in Dhaka
• Seven Founder Countries- Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives,
Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
• Afghanistan joined the organization as a eighth member in 2007.
• Nine observers - United States of America, China, Japan, Republic of
Korea, Iran, Mauritius, Australia, Myanmar and European Union
Some Facts of SAARC
• Population: 1.692 billion
• GDP: $2.608 trillion
• Fast growing economy- growth is projected to increase 7% in 2015 to
7.6% by 2017
• About 399 million people – 40% of the World poor, live on less than
$1.25 a day
• More than 200 million people live in slums
• World’s largest working-age population
• A quarter of the world’s middle class consumer
(May 29, 2015 World Bank)
SAARC Goals
• To improve the quality of life through accelerated economic growth,
social progress and cultural development in the South Asia
• To provide a platform for the peoples of South Asia to work together
in a spirit of friendship, trust and understanding
• To promote collaborate action and mutual assistance in the economic,
social, cultural, technical and scientific fields
• To strength cooperation among themselves in international forum on
matters of common interest (SAARC Charter)
Why SAARC?
• To solve of the common problems in the region
• Collective security of the region
• International Support
• Ziaur Rahaman Contribution
• India Role: ‘gang up against India’
• Pakistan Role: ‘an Indian strategy to organize the other South Asian
countries against Pakistan’
• ‘a medium for India to establish hegemony in the region’
Why SAARC?
• Small countries: Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Maldives resist the
Indian hegemony in the region.
• Common stage for collectively bargain with India in various economic
and political problems which had not been solved since long time in a
one to one dealing
• India: the forum should not discuss bilateral issues and security
matter, all decisions would be based on unanimity.
SAARC: Major areas of cooperation
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Economic,
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Environment,
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Energy,
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Culture,
People-to-People contacts,
Human
Resource
Development,
Information Communication
and Media,
Poverty Alleviation,
Science and Technology,
Security Aspects,
Tourism
Trade and Finance
Agricultural
and
development,
Rural
Security Cooperation in South Asia
• Security is an important reason to form regional organizations
like EU, ASEAN, SAARC
• Small countries in South Asia feel insecurity from India and vice
versa.
• no a common security threat from external world
• Lack of common perception among South Asian leaders about
the role of SAARC in the region creates the problems to solve
the security issues.
• Indian leaders: SAARC should focus only on economic, cultural
and technological aspect of the region.
• Pakistan’s, emphasised the scope of SAARC including political
and even bilateral aspect.
• This dispute regarding the role of SAARC creates the problems
to address the security cooperation in South Asia.
Security in South Asia
• Security issues are not allowed to talk in formal summit of SAARC.
However informal talk is important to solve the bilateral and
multilateral problems in the region. eg. Simla agreement between
India and Pakistan (SAARC Summit 1997 Male)
• Nuclear weapons: India and Pakistan experiment a series of 5 and 6
nuclear test in 1998 which creates insecurity in South Asia.
• Internal conflict of SSARC member states creates insecurity in South
Asia.
• SAARC Convention of Terrorism 1988
• SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk was established in
Colombo in 1995.
Suspicious relations between India and Pakistan
• India and Pakistan blame each other to support the terrorist group and
use the terrorist group against each other. (Role of Media)
• India support Bangladesh in 1972 to separate from Pakistan.
• During the early 1980s, the Indian government under Mrs. Indira
Gandhi provided arms and training facilities to the Tamil tigers
belongs to LTTE (Chakrabarti, 1998:5)
• 4 wars between India and Pakistan
Security: Contradiction
• India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal have been significantly
contributing to peacekeeping mission in the world under UN, but
these countries have been failed to established peace and security in
their own region.
• South Asia is economically poor region the world – more than half of
the world poor lives in this region, but it has big amount of military
expenditure.
• India and Pakistan have 93% of total military spending in South Asia
and ‘have the capacity to kill more than 100 million people
immediately and many hundreds of millions dying subsequently from
radiation-related illness’ (Barry and Hiris 1998, Hussain, 2008)
• In terms of per capita income, India and Pakistan have 142 and 119
position in the world, but both countries have first and 10th ranks in
terms of arms imports (Haq 1997, Hussain 2008)
• Both countries have been suffering from poverty, unemployment,
environment and HIV Aids problem.
Economic Cooperation in South Asia
• South Asia is a economically poor region - about 399 million people –
40% of the World poor live on less than $1.25 a day
• South Asian countries are most dense populated countries
• South Asia is Indo centric, India is the largest country in terms of
geographical area, population, economic strength and military power
• Pakistan 2nd largest country
• Maldives – tourist industry, attract large amount of FDI, Sri Lanka is
second wealthy economy in the region
• Since 1980, South Asia has obtained in average nearly 6% per annum
GDP growth.
Regional Trade in south Asia
• South Asia has enormous economic strength in terms of market
potential, rich natural resources and human capital.
• India is single most important trade partner of all the other South
Asian countries. Over 90% of regional trade for countries such
as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh are confined to a bilateral
relationship with India (Weerakoon 2010:916)
• SAFTA/SAPTA
• Create more investment friendly environment in the region
Conflict
• Conflict between India and Pakistan hamper the intra-regional trade in
the region.
• Pakistan is the major producer of cotton, with excellent quality and
even cheaper price to compare international market. India import
cotton from South Korea and other far countries and ignore the
neighbour country Pakistan. (Jain 1998)
• Pakistan imports almost $50 million worth of aluminium from Europe
and Southeast Asia whereas the price of Indian aluminium is much
lower than the international price (Khan 1994, Jain 1998)
• Pakistan import tea from Kenya, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and
Sri Lanka, where per kilogram price are $3.25, $3.8, $2,46, $2.98, and
2.9 respectively. But, in India the price of tea is $2.42 per kilogram
and has better in quality (Jain 1998)
Foreign Investment in South Asia
• Since 1990, most of the South Asian countries have economic reform
and they adopted industrial policies that encourage FDI in the region.
• South Asia has big market with big cities, available cheaper resources
which attract FDI.
• Market imbalance, poor transport infrastructure, high tariff, no
business environment, lengthy legal procedures, political instability
and internal conflict problem, etc. problems
SAARC: India Role
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India- 73% total land of SA,
3 times more population than altogether 7 S A countries
75% SAARC GDP, 78% total export and 60% total import
Border dispute all SAARC countries (except Afghanistan)
India need to create good relations with neighbours to be global leader
(permanent member in the UN)
• I.K Gujral: ‘India future depends on what its neighbour think about it.
If India spend its time to fight with its neighbours, India will never
become global power’.
• China influence in SA is growing slowly
• India can make SAARC either strong or weak
• Narendra Modi: ‘Neighbourhood First’ ‘Man in Action’
SAARC: Achievement
• Common bond among South Asian people
• SAARC Summits is only one forum to meet the Head of the State and
Government
• Common goal to improve quality of life through high economic
growth
• Common views in international forum like UN
• SAARC has been successful to make the common institution to solve
the common problem in the region
• SAFTA agreement (2006) hope SA economy strong
SAARC: Challenges
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Conflict and mistrust among SAARC member countries
Internal Conflict
Geo-political imbalance/ imbalance of power
Lack of unity among SAARC countries
Dispute: Border, natural resources
Lack of effective implication of SAARC programmes
SAARC organizations are not really regional and not effective
Role of Secretary General
SAARC Charter need to change
SAARC Connectivity: Road, Air, Sea
SAFTA/SAPTA
Criticisms of SAARC
• ‘Coffee shop’ of SAARC leaders
• Instead of focus on economic growth, poverty reduction,
infrastructure development, good education and health services,
SAARC spend many years to make plans, programmes, agreements
and slogans.
• Policy makers does not think about implementation of the programme.
There is no effective mechanism to implement SAARC programme.
SAARC policy are not effective eg: SAARC Youth Year, Child Year,
Women Year etc.
• SAARC regional organizations are not really regional.
SAARC: Ways Forward
• Build more trust between South
Asian Countries, especially India
and Pakistan
• More power to Secretary General
and high level appointment
• Regional Connectivity: Greater
air, road and rail network within
the region
• Pakistan natural resources, Nepal
and Bhutan water resource and
Bangladesh natural gas solve the
energy crisis in SA
• Indian expert manpower can
build the infrastructures in SA
SAARC: Ways Forward
• Role of SAARC observers need to be more effective
• USA, Japan, China, EU etc. need to invest more in infrastructure
development in SA
• Roads, Toilets or Electricity - What's Most Important for South Asia's
Growth? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjrtkqNxi6k
• Embassy, SAARC Bank, Free Visa in SA countries…
• SAARC focus on Soft power: SAF Game (Cricket) , Music, Student,
Scholar, Businessman, Artist Exchange Programs
• SAARC Scholarship, SAARC University, New Delhi
• Public diplomacy increase
• Cricket can unite South Asian people
Conclusion
• India role is important to make the SAARC effective
• If a strong country lead the regional organization, regional
organization would be more effective.
• Lack of strong influential leadership, regional organization can not be
work properly.
• Instead of passive organization, other countries can accept the leading
role of India in SAARC
• Through deeper integration of SAARC countries, South Asia would
be strong, peaceful and economically prosperous region of the world
Any Questions?
Thank you very much !!!