Transcript Romania - 1asig.ro

6th ALB National Conference
Two years of crisis
Dynamic and diagnosis of consumer credit in Romania versus Europe
Gilles Zeitoun – Cetelem IFN
Bucarest 18 nov 2010
The European market accounts for 26% of the global market
Consumer Credit European Market :
1290 bn € outstanding end 2009
 #2 Region, equal to Asia –Mid.East
Average outstanding per capita :
relatively low in Europe
Eastern countries pull the average down
 Western European countries have
amounts lower than many other industrial
countries (USA, Canada, Japan,…)
2
The Romanian consumer credit market
Consumer credit outstanding : 73.8 bn RON = 17.3 bn € (sept 2010)
 A small part of European outstandings (1.3%) , but a significant one in CEE
Region (#2 after Poland)
 Huge growth until crisis : +87% 2007/2006 , +30% 2008/2007
 It went too fast, and led to a high level of indebtedness in consumer credit
 Even higher growth for foreign currency loans, which accounts for 52% today
 30 % of total outstanding end 2006
 44 % of total outstanding end 2007
 50 % of total outstanding end 2008, stabilised after (52% in sept 2010)
 A risky situation
3
Total credit penetration in Romania : near the european average
Romania :
 Mortgage + credit consumer outstandings = 20% of GDP, in the average
 But one of the lowest proportion of mortgages
113%
86%71% 71%
49% 46% 42%
32% 30% 28% 27% 26% 24% 20% 19% 14% 14%
13%
9% 6% 4%
100%
25%
80%
45%
60%
96%
86% 90% 88% 88% 83%
53%
70%
78% 73%
61%
69%
40%
20%
4%
14% 10% 12% 12% 17%
22% 27%
47%
69%
78%
78%
75%
55%
22% 33% 27%
35%
67%
65%
73%
53%
47%
30%
39%
31%
22%
31%
0%
Netherlands
Norway
Belgium
Germany
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Italy
Slovakia
Mexico
Russia
Algeria
Romania
Portugal
Spain
France
Morocco
Hungary
Poland
Turkey
Brazil
Argentina
% of consumer loans on total outstanding % of housing loans on total outstanding % 4of housing + consumer loans / GDP
Romania shows one of the highest level of consumer credit penetration
Romania :
 Credit consumer outstandings = 15.9% of GDP
 Consequence of the fast development of the consumer credit during
2003-2008
Encours
de crédit
à la
Consumer
Credit
consommation par
outstanding
(€)
habitantper
(encapita
€)
3000
15,9%
14,9%
2773
14%
12,2%
2018
2000
10,1%
188918741844
8,9%
9,5%
7,8%
1500
16%
13,5%
2379
2500
Encours
de crédit
à la
Consumer
Credit
consommation en %
outstanding
du as
PIB% of GDP
12%
10,1%
9,0%
8,8%
8,2%
10%
7,4%
5,9%1303
8%
6,3%
1086
1000
866 809
718 665
557 500
500
6%
4,2%4,4%
4,3%
4%
1,4%
392
261 228
181
35
0
All.
Esp.
Fr
Port.
Ita
Bel
Hong.
Rep.T
Pol.
Bulg.
Rou
Turq.
Bré
Rus.
Slov
Mex
5
Arg.
Alg.
Mar
2%
0%
The European market shrinked in 2009
Market Evolution 2009/2008
Consumer Credit Outstandings
European consumer credit outstandings
shrinked in 2009…
…but less than other developped markets
New credit production decreased much
more
Consumer Credit market evolution is highly
linked with GDP and Consumption
evolution…
…which shows big differences between
industrialized and developping emerging
countries
6
Romanian market was one of the most affected markets in 2009
and 2010
 General drop in new credit production , but big differences between countries
and between products
 The card activity has withstood well
 While the auto loans and the currency loans have decreased much
 Romania :

-50% drop estimated in production : one of the most affected countries
Production
crédit Credit
conso:
taux growth
de croissance
Consumer
production
27%
30%
25%
15%
4%
10%
Pol Slov RT
Sk -3%
Gr
Hu
-2% -10% -12%
-16% -16%
V% 08/07
V% 09/08
28%
10%
Ro
Ru
7%
Bu
Ukr
-50% -50% -50%
-66% -70%
Source: Global Insight
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Romania : consumer credit outstanding decreased in 2009 and 2010
Romania :
 Outstanding evolution 2009/2008 : - 5.8% at constant exchange rate
 Outstanding evolution sept 2010 / sept 2009 : - 3.7% at constant exchange rate
 Outstanding dropped less than several other countries because credit durations are longer
Consumer credit mark et growth 09/08 (Real exchange rate )
25,0%
Algeria 2
20,0%
Bubble size = size of the mark et in bn€
Turkey 39
Brazil 128
15,0%
Italy 113
Argentina 9
10,0%
Morocco 6
Poland 33
France 149
Slovakia 3
Hungary 13
Romania 17
-8%
Germany 227
-6%
Bulgaria 6
Mexico 28
Russie 55
5,0%
Portugal 20
-4% Belgium 20 -2%
Czech Rep 11
Spain 92
GDP growth 09/08
0,0%
0%
2%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
8
4%
6%
Romania : why such a drop in consumer credit production, and what outlook ?
Like in most of the countries, the reasons of the drop are :
 Decrease of consumption
 Fear of the future, uncertainty regarding job stability and future revenues
 Increased interest rates, due to credit risk rise and to liquidity issues
 Tightened granting rules on banks’ side
But in Romania, the drop is stronger and the recovery of consumer credit will be longer :
 The economic crisis is particularly severe and is lasting (GDP : -7.1% in 2009, -1.9% est. in 2010)
 The pre-crisis consumer credit growth has been too fast, leading to excessive endebtedness on long credit
durations
 limited room in households’ budget to add new credits
 long-lasting credit risk issues, limiting interest rates decrease and release in granting rules
 Lack of confidence of consumers towards consumer credit, fostered by endebtedness situation and public debate
about OUG 50
We expect the consumer credit production to recover the 2008 level only in 2013, while it is in 2010
or 2011 in western european countries
9