Transcript High Speed Rail in France

"High-Speed Rail for CEE Countries"
PRAGUE – 10 06 2016
High Speed Rail in France:
from Ex-Ante to Ex-Post Evaluations
Pr. Yves Crozet
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Contents
• 1) HSR in France:
- 30 years of development: geography matters
- Cost Benefit Analysis
- Up to what extent can we open new lines?
• 2) HSR and regional development: does
HSR rebalance the French economy?
3) Conclusion
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253 stations in
all, including 53
abroad
30 years of HSR France
• 1981: opening of the Paris-Lyon line (serving the southeast).
• 1989-1990: opening of the Paris-Tours line (serving the
south-west and Brittany).
• 1993: opening of the Paris-Lille line (serving northern
France, Brussels and London).
• 2001: opening of the Lyon-Marseille line (serving the
Mediterranean).
• 2007: opening of the first section of Paris-Est line (serving
Lorraine, Alsace, Luxembourg and Germany). The second
section will be opened in 2016
• 2011: opening of the first section of the Rhine-Rhône line
(first section not linked directly to Paris).
High Speed Trains Traffics in Europe
(Billion of pass.km/2012)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
Sweden
Belgium
United Kingdom
5
253 stations in
all, including 53
abroad
200Km=125 miles
400Km=250miles
600 Km = 375 miles
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CBA: “Economic IRR”
Ex ante
Ex post
LN 1 (Sud-Est)
16.5%
15.2%
LN 2 (Atlantique)
12.0%
8.5%
LN 3 (Nord Europe)
13.0%
3.0%
Interconnexion
LN4 (Rhône-Alpes)
LN5 (Mediterranée)
10.8%
10.4%
8.0%
6.9%
6.1%
4.1%
Source: J. P. Taroux (op. cit.).
Intensity of traffic and Yield Management
8
Rail access charges in Europe (2010)
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CBA: « socio-economic IRR »
LN 1 (Sud-Est)
Ex ante
Ex post
28.0%
?
LN 2 (Atlantique)
LN 3 (Nord
Europe)
Interconnexion
23.6%
14.0%
20.3%
18.5%
5.0%
15.0%
LN4 (Rhône-Alpes)
LN5
(Mediterranée)
15.4%
10.6%
12.2%
8.1%
National Scheme of
Transport Infrastructures
(2009)


2500 km
of new
HSR lines
within
2020 ???
To be
compared
with the
HSR
network
in 2009 =
1875km
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HSR from profit to public subsidies?
• The main risk now is for public funds
• For Tour-Bordeaux, 4 billion of public money
for 30 million (maximum) of passengers per
year = 4,4 euros/p/day/50 years…
• But for Marseille-Nice, 15 billion of public
money (2%) for 20 million of passengers per
year = 24 euros/passenger/day/50 years….
but
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HSR… “whatever the cost”!
• Public authorities are risk lovers, they have a
convex utility function.
• Traffic forecast overestimation, building cost
underestimation, high burden of financial charges..
• Due to wrong (biased?) expectations concerning
the economic impacts of the infrastructure, they
prefer receiving a random wealth to receiving its
mean with certainty (Expected utility).
• It is a big incentive for consultants and private
companies to develop strategic behaviors
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Contents
• 1) HSR in France: where does the success
come from?
•
• 2) HSR and regional development: does
HSR rebalance the French economy?
- Rebalancing the French Economy?
- City-specific impacts
- winners and losers
3) Conclusion
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155.00
Auvergne
150.00
Corse
Île-de-France
145.00
140.00
Limousin
Champagne-Ardenne
Picardie
135.00
130.00
Haute-Normandie
Centre
Basse-Normandie
125.00
Bourgogne
Nord-Pas-de-Calais
120.00
115.00
Lorraine
Alsace
Franche-Comté
110.00
105.00
Pays de la Loire
Bretagne
Poitou-Charentes
100.00
Aquitaine
Midi-Pyrénées
95.00
Rhône-Alpes
90.00
Languedoc-Roussillon
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
National Scheme of
Transport Infrastructures
(2009)


2500 km
of new
HSR lines
within
2020 ???
To be
compared
with the
HSR
network
in 2009 =
1875km
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Number of Jobs
Alsace+Lorraine
Nord-Pas-de-Calais
Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire
Bretagne
Hte+basse Normandie
Midi-Pyrénées
1,700,000
1,600,000
1,500,000
1,400,000
1,300,000
1,200,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
900,000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Type :
GIF
125
Roubaix - Tourcoing
Lille
120
Dunkerque
Flandre - Lys
115
Douai
Valenciennes
Cambrai
110
Maubeuge
Arras
105
Lens - Hénin
Béthune - Bruay
Saint-Omer
100
Calais
Boulogne-sur-mer
95
Berck - Montreuil
NPDC
90
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Who are the winners of HSR?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Civil engineering companies
Rail manufacturers
Rail operators (sometimes)
Infrastructure managers (sometimes)
Rail users (time gains)
Some specific firms of sub-part of firms
(managers, metropolitan functions…)
• Regions ?? Cities ??
Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum
on which to place it and I shall move the world.
Archimedes
Time
gains
GDP
Nb of
trips
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CONCLUSION (1)
• Demography, geography, economy (macro and micro)
are more important than speed gains
• Accessibility improvements by speed gains is not the
same thing than density and proximity.
• Agglomeration effects are mainly the result of density
• I dot not contest the relationship between
agglomeration and local productivity gains
• But I contest the transformation of
1) accessibility gains due to speed into
agglomeration effects
• 2) the gains of HSR users into regional GDP growth
CONCLUSION (2)
The key factors of success
• Geography: size of the cities, distance
between cities (gravity model)
• Economy: demand and intensity of traffic
• History and institutions (Monopoly of SNCF)
• Rail industry + rail operator
• Technology
• Politics….
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References
• Crozet Y., 2016, Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail and
Cross-Chanel Rail System in France: Accessibility is not enough,
paper presented in Canterbury, 16 03 2016, 20 years under the
channel and beyond: accessible regions, growing regions ?
• Crozet Y., 2014, High Speed Rail performance in France: from
appraisal methodologies to ex-post evaluations, in, The economics
of Investment in High Speed Rail, Round table report #155, ITFOCDE, pages 73-105
• Crozet Y. , 2014, Extension of the High Speed Rail Network in
France: Facing the Curse that affects PPPs in the Rail Sector, in
Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 48, December
2014, Pages 401–409
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