Transcript Peripheral yields move downwards as investors shift towards

Interest Rate Monitor
August 18, 2013
Brief Overview
International
MENA Region
US: Bond yields rose as markets price for the end of
QE, pushed by positive economic data
Egypt: Inflation surges to two year high
Eurozone: Peripheral bond yields drop as Eurozone
emerges from its recession
GCC News Highlights
UK: Likelihood of continued economic recovery
strengthens, but BOE not unanimous on guidance
GCC interbank rates
Comparative MENA Markets
Japan: Economic growth comes in less than
expected, fuelling debate on sales tax
Markets overview
Major Indices: US stocks struggle amid speculation
that Fed ‘tapering’ might start in September
Commodities & Currencies: Brent oil hit a 4-month high, as
unrest in Egypt fuelled worries about supply disruption
Central Bank Meeting Calendar
Local Economy
New and analysis

Inflation rises 6.4% during the first 7-months of the
year, and Jordan signs Eurobond guarantees
Markets overview
 Amman Stock Exchange
Interest Rate Forecast
 Local Debt Monitor
The Week Ahead
 Prime Lending Rates
2
International
3
Treasury yields rose to highest level in two years as markets are
starting to price for the day when QE ends
•
Fresh signs of global economic recovery drove yields on
highly-rated government bonds to multi-year peaks.
•
The 10-year US government bond yield, rose 25bp over
the week to 2.83% – as encouraging US labor and
housing market figures, helped heighten expectations
that the Federal Reserve could start scaling back – or
“tapering” – its economic stimulus measures as early as
next month.
•
Going back to early 2011 when the Fed was not
aggressive in its QE, US 10-year yields were trading at
3.5% – even with an economy that was looking weaker
than today.
As of August 16 1 Week Ago A Month Ago
1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
2 Years
5 Years
10 Years
30 Years
0.04%
0.05%
0.07%
0.34%
1.56%
2.83%
3.85%
0.05%
0.05%
0.07%
0.31%
1.36%
2.58%
3.64%
0.02%
0.03%
0.07%
0.31%
1.32%
2.49%
3.57%
4
Inflation moves towards Fed target
•
Consumer prices rose for the third consecutive month in July, and the
number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell to a six-year
low, developments that could comfort Federal Reserve officials as they
consider dialing back their bond purchases.
•
The consumer-price index rose 0.2% last month after rising 0.5% in June,
the Labor Department said Thursday. "Core" prices, which exclude volatile
food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in July after a similar increase in June.
•
The latest price increases are modest by historical standards, underscoring
the weak economy, but they have pushed inflation closer to the Fed's
annual target of 2%. Indeed, overall prices were 2% higher in July from a
year ago, with core prices up 1.7% year over year.
•
The reports suggested the economy could be gaining momentum after
growing at an anemic rate in the first half of the year. Central-bank officials
have said they are looking for inflation to move off its low levels and for
further gains in the labor market before reducing their $85 billion a month
bond-buying program, begun last year to help spur growth.
•
Still, the inflation picture remains cloudy and the latest figures are unlikely
to settle a debate within the central bank on the matter.
5
US consumers continue to spend, while consumer sentiment
dips
•
U.S. consumers continued spending steadily in July, signaling shoppers are likely to
remain the engine of the economy's slow but steady expansion in the months
ahead.
•
Retail sales climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.2%, the fourth consecutive month of
increases, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The previous month's gain was
revised up to 0.6% from 0.4%, amid brisk demand for cars and furniture.
•
Consumers started the year confronted by higher taxes, surging gasoline prices and
the impact of federal budget cuts. However, more than halfway through 2013, they
are notching the highest confidence levels in years. Economists attributed the
optimism to a gradually improving jobs picture, rising home values and the bull
market in stocks.
•
Nevertheless, U.S. consumers, in the face of rising interest rates, began August
feeling less positive about the economy, according to data released Friday.
•
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer
sentiment fell to 80 from 85.1 in July, which was the highest since July 2007.
•
Higher mortgage rates are threatening to crimp momentum in the housing market
that’s contributed to the economic expansion.
6
Recent data points to downside risk to US economic growth
•
Builders started construction on single-family homes at the slowest pace in eight months, underscoring
worries that higher mortgage rates could restrain the housing sector's upturn.
•
Starts of single-family homes fell 2.2% in July from a month earlier to an annual rate of 591,000, the
Commerce Department said Friday. That ended two months of gains and marked the lowest level of singlefamily starts since November.
•
The latest pullback, while modest, came against expectations for an increase given strong sales and
industry surveys showing a surge in home builders' confidence.
•
Slipping activity could be a sign that the jump in mortgage rates since the spring is starting to spook
potential buyers, or making builders reluctant to break ground on homes that might not sell. The average
rate on a 30-year mortgage has risen nearly a point since April to 4.4%, though it still remains low by
historical standards.
•
Separately, industrial production in the U.S. was unchanged in July as a slowdown at factories
overshadowed an increase in mining.
•
The reading for output at factories, mines and utilities followed a 0.2% gain the prior month that was
smaller than previously reported, a report from the Federal Reserve showed today in Washington.
Manufacturing, which makes up 75 percent of total production, declined for the first time in three months.
7
Peripheral yields move downwards as investors shift towards riskier
debt, amid signs that the euro area has emerged from its recession
•
Subdued summer trading coupled with a relatively calm
political backdrop and signs that some of Europe's
fiscally frail countries are emerging from recession are
luring investors into riskier eurozone debt, narrowing
the gap in yields between Spanish and Italian bonds
over German bunds to its slimmest in more than two
years.
•
Data showed that the eurozone's recession ended in
the second quarter after six successive quarters of
contraction, and industrial output in the eurozone rose
at its fastest pace in more than 2½ years in the three
months to June.
•
Ten-year-bond yields in Spain and Italy ended the week
at 4.36% and 4.19%, respectively, having slowly edged
lower in recent weeks as risk appetite increased.
•
The German Bund yield at 1.88%, meanwhile, rose
21bp over the week – touching a 17-month high in the
process – due to strong second-quarter GDP, as well as
the general view that a mild ‘tapering’ of Fed’s asset
purchases will be announced at the next meeting..
8
Eurozone returns to growth, but problems lingers
•
The eurozone's 18-month recession has ended, spurred on by new
economic data in both Germany and France. But the modest recovery
won't go very far in fixing the bloc's deeper problems and threatens to
stoke a sense of complacency in European capitals
•
The increased pace was primarily driven by renewed business and
consumer spending in the 17-country bloc's two largest economies,
Germany and France. The eurozone economy was fragile overall,
however, with some countries, notably Spain and Italy, still struggling.
•
The European Union's official statistics agency Wednesday said the
combined gross domestic product of the currency area's 17 members
was 0.3% higher than in the first three months of the year, but 0.7%
lower than in the second quarter of 2012. It was the fastest quarterly
expansion since the first three months of 2011, , ending a sequence of
six quarters of contraction.
•
The improvement was led by quarterly growth of 0.7% in Germany
and a better-than-expected 0.5% in France.
•
Germany bounced back strongly from a winter when lots of snow
froze construction and an uncertain global outlook held back industry.
France's consumers and government spent more freely in the three
months to June. Analysts expect more growth ahead, but at a slower
pace.
9
Eurozone’s modest growth unlikely to fix the area’s
deeper problems
•
Among the good news: The economic meltdown in Southern Europe is
slowing considerably. The depressed economies of Spain, Italy and Greece
contracted again, but more slowly than previously.
•
Portugal—one of five euro members with a bailout program—even grew by a
surprising 1.1% last quarter, although its statistics office cautioned that the
relatively early Easter holiday this year was partly responsible, and further
austerity measures required under the country's international bailout
program may make the recovery short-lived.
•
Meanwhile, the bloc's return to slow growth, is likely to encourage European
politicians to claim that the region's debt crisis is receding, and that a
combination of austerity and structural reform is bearing fruit.
•
Brussels warned against complacency on Wednesday, as once-desperate
efforts to fix the common currency's flaws are already showing signs of
petering out, and a resolution to its banking and fiscal crises remains a distant
prospect .
•
Most economists say the recovery is too sluggish to overcome the eurozone's
multiple ailments, including still-rising debts, mass unemployment, lack of
credit for business, hobbled banks and political instability.
•
Annualized growth of 1.1% is considered too slow to bring down an
unemployment rate that has reached a euro-era record of 12.1%. If
unemployment stays high, it will keep hurting consumer spending, company
sales, government budgets and bank loan quality.
10
UK retails fuelled by summer spending rise at their sharpest
pace in over two years
•
U.K. retail sales offered a fresh sign of a strengthening economic recovery Thursday,
rising at their sharpest annual rate in more than two years in July as the hot weather
buoyed demand for summer products, official figures showed.
•
The Office for National Statistics said retail sales rose 1.1% on the month in July and
were up 3% on the year. The ONS said the annual rise in sales was the steepest since
January 2011.
•
Economists said lower inflation, an improving labor market, rising house prices and a
pickup in consumer confidence should help support retail sales in coming months,
adding to the likelihood that the economic recovery will have continued at a firm pace
in the third quarter.
•
They also cautioned that falling real wages—pay adjusted for inflation—could drag on
the sector.
•
Thursday's data come a week after Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney outlined a major
shift in the central bank's policy framework, vowing to keep interest rates at record
lows at least until the U.K. jobless rate falls to 7%. The unemployment rate averaged
7.8% in the three months to May. The BOE doesn’t expect unemployment to hit the 7%
target until 2016.
•
But the guidance framework gives the BOE an opt-out if annual inflation looked set to
be above 2.5% in 18 to 24 months' time or if expectations of future inflation grew
dramatically.
11
BOE not unanimous on guidance
•
Meanwhile, dissent within the Bank of England's interest-rate
setting panel fueled investor doubts Wednesday over whether the
central bank can stick to its new governor, Mark Carney's, pledge
not to raise interest rates until joblessness in the U.K. falls sharply.
•
Minutes of this month's policy meeting published Wednesday
showed Martin Weale, an external member of the central bank's
monetary policy committee, voted against the introduction of the
BOE's "forward guidance" strategy.
Mr. Weale, a British economist who has long fretted about
inflationary pressures in the U.K. economy, couldn't agree to such a
lengthy period (18 to 24 months) for the inflation "knockout" to
come into effect.
•
•
•
•
The Bank of England expects annual inflation to slow close to its 2%
target by early 2015.
The annual rate of inflation fell in July - to 2.8% from 2.9% the
previous month - but continues to outpace wage growth, squeezing
consumers’ spending power, official figures showed Tuesday.
A continued cooling of inflation will reinforce expectations the
central bank will stick to its pledge to keep its benchmark interest
rate at a record low until joblessness declines at least to 7%.
12
Uncertainty over forward guidance pushes gilt yields up
•
Economists warned that anything less than
unanimous support among the central
bank's policy makers could lead financial
markets to doubt that the monetary policy
committee will stick with its rate pledge.
•
Those doubts were in evidence in market
interest
rates
Wednesday.
Market
predictions of short-term rates that track
the BOE's benchmark suggest investors
believe the committee will raise rates in
2015, roughly a year before Mr. Carney said
the central bank's forecasts indicated.
•
Longer-term interest rates also rose. And
persistent signs of expansion in the UK
economy drove the 10-year gilt yield to
2.70%- up 25bp over the week – as
investors appeared to question the Bank of
England’s “forward guidance” on interest
rates.
13
Japan economic growth comes in less than forecast,
stirring debate over planned sales-tax increase
•
Japan's economy grew an annualized 2.6% in the three months through June, a weaker-thanexpected expansion that clouds prospects for a planned sales-tax increase that would help the
country rein in its massive public debt.
•
While below the average 3.6% growth rate economists expected, the figure nevertheless
represented continued solid growth in the world's third-largest economy and follows a revised
3.8% annualized growth rate for the first quarter.
•
The performance over six months is the economy's strongest in three years and a sharp
turnaround from last year's recession—Japan's fifth in 15 years, largely due to Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe’s push of aggressive monetary easing and government spending.
•
Mr. Abe is due to announce this fall whether the government will go ahead with a planned
doubling of the sales tax to 10% in two stages.
•
Economists worry that the sales tax increase could choke off the modest recovery. Some
advisers to Mr. Abe, said they fear such increases over a short period will nip the recovery in the
bud and have argued to delay or push back full implementation of the tax increase.
•
On the other hand, concerns are rising about burgeoning Japanese government debt, which
surpassed $10.4 trillion at the end of June, more than twice the size of the economy, according
to data released Friday. It also easily puts Japan as the most indebted nation of any of its
industrialized peers.
•
Not going ahead with the tax increase could risk losing investor confidence in the yen bond
market, which could push long-term borrowing costs higher, the fund warned.
14
U.S. stocks struggle amid speculation that ‘tapering’ might start in
September
15
Brent oil hit a 4-month high above $111 this week, as unrest in
Egypt fuelled worries about supply disruption
16
Major Interest Rate Forecasts
Market yield
(August 16)
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
US 10-year
2.83
2.59
2.74
2.88
3.02
3.14
3.24
Fed Fund Target Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.88
1.68
1.77
1.89
1.93
2.09
2.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.70
0.50
2.43
0.50
2.53
0.50
2.64
0.50
2.78
0.50
2.85
0.50
3.01
0.50
Rate (%)
United States
Germany
Germnay 10-year
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
United Kingdom
UK 10-year
BoE Bank Rate
Source: Bloomberg
17
The Week Ahead,,,
Economic Data Release Calendar
August 18, 2013 - August 23, 2013
Date
Currecny / Event
GMT
19-Aug Mon AUD RBA Policy Meeting - August Minutes
01:30
20-Aug Tue
05:30
09:00
14:00
14:00
18:00
01:45
07:30
07:30
08:00
08:00
08:00
12:30
12:58
JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY)
21-Aug Wed USD Existing Home Sales
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)
USD Fed Releases Minutes from Jul 30-31 FOMC Meeting
CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI
22-Aug Thu EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite
USD Initial Jobless Claims
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary
USD Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Summit
23-Aug Fri EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)
EUR German Exports
EUR German Imports
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY)
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
GBP Exports
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
GBP Imports
GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M)
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
USD New Home Sales
USD New Home Sales (MoM)
06:00
06:00
06:00
06:00
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
12:30
12:30
14:00
14:00
14:00
Forecast
Previous
5.13M
0.90%
7.20%
-5.10%
5.08M
-1.20%
48.20
51.00
51.60
50.60
50.20
50.90
330K
54.00
47.70
50.70
51.30
50.30
49.80
50.50
320K
0.70%
0.70%
-1.80%
-2.10%
0.90%
0.60%
-0.10%
1.40%
-2.00%
0.80%
1.20%
1.30%
-17.40
497K
8.30%
0.90%
0.60%
2.50%
1.40%
2.20%
1.40%
1.50%
-16.50
490K
-1.40%
18
Central Bank Meetings Calendar
Calendar for upcoming meetings of main central banks :
Central Bank
Month
Current Rate
Expected Rate
Decision
US Federal Reserve (FOMC)
September 18
0.25%
0.25%
European Central Bank (ECB)
September 5
0.50%
0.50%
Bank of England (BoE)
September 5
0.50%
0.50%
Bank of Japan (BOJ)
September 4
0.10%
0.10%
Swiss National Bank (SNB)
September 19
0.00%
0.00%
Bank of Canada (BOC)
September 4
1.00%
1.00%
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
September 3
2.50%
2.50%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
September 11
2.50%
2.50%
19
Regional
20
Egypt's inflation surges to two-year high
•
Egypt’s Treasury yields have fallen by as much as 1.25% as no new
auctions have been held since the latest political developments in
the country and banks have been shut down by the CBE.
•
According to Egypt’s statistics agency CAPMAS, consumer inflation
quickened to its fastest pace in two years in July, driven by higher
food and prices and a devaluating currency.
•
Inflation rose to an annual 10.28% in July, up from 9.75% in June and
its highest rate since July 2011.
•
Despite the recent $12 billion in aid from Gulf countries, the recent
political developments have continued to devaluate the currency
and place upward inflationary pressures and halted economic
activity.
•
However, the aid helped bolster Egypt’s FX reserves, as the central
bank announced last week that FX reserves reached $18.8 billion,
their highest level in almost 2 years, up from $14.9 billion in June.
•
Although this is a big jump in FX reserves, they are still
approximately half of what they were before the January 2011
uprising. The political uncertainty will minimize foreign investment
and tourism, in turn effecting Egypt’s balance of payment.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Trading Economics
21
GCC Economic Highlights:
Saudi Arabia’s July consumer price rise 3.7% from year earlier
•
Saudi Arabia’s consumer inflation increased to 3.7% in July,
compared to July 2012, up from 3.5% in June.
•
Higher food and rental prices pushed inflation up, while core
inflation maintained a downward trend.
•
As expected, food inflation increased further in July to a 4-year
high owing to the holy month of Ramadan, while strong housing
demand kept the upside trend of rental inflation.
•
Food inflation accelerated to 6.9% year-on-year in July compared
with 6.1% in June, putting food inflation at its highest level since
December. On a monthly basis, food prices rose by 1% compared
to June.
•
The rent and housing-related services inflation accelerated to 4.2%
year-on-year in July compared with 3.6% in June. This was mainly
driven by rising rental inflation reflecting a seasonal trend of
increased demand in the summer.
•
On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.4% compared to 0.2% in
June.
Source: Trading Economics
22
GCC Economic Highlights:
HSBC: UAE PMI rises in July as export market demand jumps
•
HSBC’s purchasing manager index, inched up to 54.5 in
July, from 54.1 in June. A reading above 50 indicates the
economy is expanding. The indicator is designed to give a
snapshot of the performance of the non-oil private
sector in the UAE.
•
According to the report, non-oil business activity in the
UAE increase in July, driven by new orders from abroad.
•
HSBC said the July data signaled further rises in output
levels and new order intakes at non-oil producing private
sector companies in the U.A.E. The increase in foreign
demand was the highest in six months.
Key points:
Meanwhile, new business from abroad rose at the
sharpest rate since January and employment levels
increased further, albeit at the slowest pace in eight
months.
Demand from exports markets
increases at fastest pace in six months
•
Outputs
expansion
broadly
unchanged from June, but new order
growth accelerates
Rate of job creation eases
23
GCC interbank rates
Source: Bloomberg
24
Comparative MENA Markets
For the period 11/08 – 16/08
25
Locally
26
Inflation reaches 6.4% during first seven months of the year
•
According to figures released by the Department of
Statistics, the inflation rate stood at 6.40% during the first
seven months of 2013 compared to the same period last
year.
•
Inflation seemed to have eased over the past few months,
but at 6.40% inflation remains high and subject to new
inflationary pressures in the remaining months of the year.
•
Among the main commodities groups which contributed to
the increase were transportation (15.00%), fuel and
electricity (24.00%), and fruits and vegetables (14.00%).
•
•
The report also showed that inflation reached 5.50% during
the month of June compared to the same month last year,
down from 5.80% the previous month. Inflation was driven
by the same groups as mentioned above, but prices of
tobacco and cigarettes, medical care and cereals were
down.
Meanwhile, on a monthly basis inflation rose by 0.45% in
July compared to the previous month; compared to an
increase of 0.80% between May and June 2013.
Forecast:
•The average of forecasts by international agencies on
Bloomberg expects crude oil prices to rise throughout the
remaining 2 quarters of the year.
•Additionally, hikes in electricity tariffs for industrial and
commercial have only recently gone into effect.
•According to studies by the IMF and statements by the
Minister of Finance Umayya Toukan, raising electricity tariffs
is expected to cause inflation to increase by 1% to 1.5%.
•Electricity production cost hikes are back on the agenda,
after the recent disruption in Egyptian gas supply, which is
expected to increase the financial losses of the NEPCO by 1.2
to 1.4 million JD per day.
•The number of Syrian refugees that are entering the country
are placing pressure on industries, services and
infrastructure in Jordan.
27
JD deposits at licensed banks continues to grow
•
In the year 2012, JD deposits at licensed banks fell by
1.40 billion JD while foreign currency deposits
increased by $2.82 billion as a result of increased
fear of the devaluation of the JD, causing a huge
dollarization wave.
•
However, since the beginning of this year, JD
deposits have increased by 1.98 billion JD to reach
an all time high of 19.69 billion JD at licensed banks.
•
Additionally, foreign currency deposits fell by
approximately $595 million for the same period to
reach $9.65 billion (6.84 billion JD).
•
In detail, the major increase in JD deposits came in
the month of April, as JD deposits increased by 601
million JD from March.
•
Recently, the CBJ decreased major interest rates on
JD instruments by 0.25%, indicating that the JD
devaluation and dollar crisis has calmed down, and it
can now concentrate on helping GDP growth.
28
US agrees to be Jordan’s guarantor on Eurobond
•
Last week, Jordan and the U.S signed an agreement which allows
Jordan to issue Eurobonds in the global financial markets with the
U.S as its guarantor.
•
The amount of the bond is expected to be around $1.25 billion for
a period of up to 7 years.
•
Jordan will be able to obtain external financing with competitive
interest rates at par with U.S government borrowing.
•
Choosing the U.S as the guarantor will allow Jordan to borrow
from international markets at competitive rates, which
will minimize the cost of borrowing on the government, provide
the necessary funding to meet expenses, and boost foreign
currency reserve levels.
•
Additionally, it will reduce the government’s need to borrow from
the domestic market, providing funds for the private sector to
expand.
•
Currently, the U.S government’s borrowing rate for a duration of 7
years is 2.25%. If the U.S did not agree to be Jordan’s guarantor,
the Jordanian government would borrow at significantly higher
rates.
29
Electricity hike into effect last Thursday
•
As part of the National Economic Reform Program with accordance from the
IMF, the government raised electricity tariffs on certain sectors last Thursday.
•
President of the Electricity Regulatory Commission (ERC), Mohammad Hamad
said the tariffs will be raise over the course of five years to bring the stateowned National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) to cost recovery.
•
He added that tariffs will not be put into effect for Jordanian households until
next year.
•
Hamad said that government buildings, such as ministries, public and private
hospitals, schools and universities will witness an increase of 5 to 10%. The
new scenario excludes small industrial establishments that consume less than
10,000kW a month.
•
On the other hand, as of 2014, households that consume over 600 kilowatts
(kW) of electricity a month and whose bill exceeds JD50 will see an annual
increase in their bills of up to 15%.
•
The disruption in Egyptian gas flows has created bigger loses for NEPCO, whose
estimated losses at the end of 2012 are 1.158 billion JD, forcing it to resort to
more expensive methods to generate electricity.
IMF’s cost recovery plan
Source: IMF
30
Amman Stock Exchange
For the period 12/08 – 15/08
ASE free float shares’ price index ended the week at
(1921.9) points, compared to (1946.5) points for the last
week, posting an decrease of 1.26%. The total trading
volume during the week reached JD(21.2) million compared
to JD(20.5) million during the last week, trading a total of
(22.9) million shares through (10,852) transactions
The shares of (161) companies were traded, the shares
prices of (54) companies rose, and the shares prices of (72)
declined.
Top 5 losers for the last week
Top 5 gainers for the last week
Stock
% chg
Stock
% chg
Jordanian Expatriates Investment Holding
18.75%
Kafa’a For Financial & Economical Investments (p.l.c)
(9.62%)
Comprehensive Land Development And Investment
17.54%
The Arab Potash
(8.63%)
Rum Aladdin Industries
15.28%
Jordan Clothing Company P.l.c
(8.47%)
Arab Investors Union Co. For Real Estates Developing
13.56%
Al-quds Ready Mix
(8.00%)
Siniora Food Industries
13.50%
Northern Cement Co.
(6.98%)
31
Local Debt Monitor
Latest T-Bills

As of August 18, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ
JD(2,691) million.
3 months T-Bills
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Yield (%)
29/2011
14/12/2011
14/03/2012
50
2.898%
28/2011
12/12/2011
12/03/2012
50
2.844%
6 months T-Bills
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Yield (%)
02/2012
14/02/2012
14/08/2012
50
3.788%
01/2012
23/01/2012
23/07/2012
50
3.433%
27/2011
08/12/2011
08/06/2012
50
3.232%
9 months T-Bills
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Yield (%)
05/2012
04/03/2012
04/12/2012
75
4.285%
04/2012
29/02/2012
29/11/2012
75
4.229%
03/2012
22/02/2012
22/11/2012
75
4.169%
1 year T-Bills
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - Million
Coupon (%)
08/2013
01/08/2013
01/08/2014
50
5.766%
07/2013
30/07/2013
30/07/2014
50
5.736%
06/2013
28/07/2013
28/07/2014
50
5.654%
05/2013
21/07/2013
21/07/2014
50
5.535%
32
Local Debt Monitor
Latest T-Bonds Issues
2 years T-Bonds
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
T4113
24/07/2013
24/07/2015
50
6.404%
T3813
08/07/2013
08/07/2015
50
6.299%
T3613
24/06/2013
24/06/2015
50
6.129%
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
T4313
14/08/2013
14/08/2016
50
6.537%
T4013
17/07/2013
17/07/2016
50
6.745%
T3713
02/07/2013
02/07/2016
50
6.686%
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
T0312
15/01/2012
15/01/2016
37.5
7.246%
T4211
16/11/2011
16/11/2015
50
6.475%
5 years T-Bonds
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
T4213
6/08/2013
6/08/2018
50
7.700%
T3913
11/07/2013
11/07/2018
50
7.692%
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
PB59 (Water Authority)
30/06/2013
30/06/2018
20
7.786%
PB58 (Water Authority)
13/06/2013
13/06/2018
12
7.703%
PB57 (Water Authority)
06/06/2013
06/06/2018
15
7.684%
PB005 (Housing & Urban Development)
29/07/2012
29/07/2015
20
7.966%
3 years T-Bonds
4 year T-Bonds
Public Utility Bonds
33
Prime Lending Rates
34
Disclaimer

The materials of this report may contain inaccuracies and typographical errors. Cairo Amman Bank does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the
materials or the reliability of any advice, opinion, statement or other information displayed or distributed through this report. You acknowledge that any
reliance on any such opinion, advice, statement, memorandum, or information shall be at your sole risk. Cairo Amman Bank reserves the right, in its sole
discretion, to correct any error or omission in any portion of the report without notice. Cairo Amman Bank may make any other changes to the report, its
materials described in the report at any time without notice.

The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and are provided "As Is" without any representation or warranty and it should not
be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other
investment and\or to be relied on for any act whatsoever.

Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients "As Is", but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken
in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient; they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any
evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Cairo Amman
Bank does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.

All estimates, opinions, analysis and/or any content for whatsoever nature included in this report constitute Cairo Amman Bank’s sole judgments and
opinions without any liability and/or representation as of the date of this report and it should not be relied upon as such.

Cairo Amman Bank reserves the right to change any part of this report or this legal Disclaimer at any time without notice. Any changes to this legal Disclaimer
shall take effect immediately. Notwithstanding the above, Cairo Amman Bank shall not be obliged to keep this report up to date.

The Recipient agree to defend, indemnify and hold harmless Cairo Amman Bank and its subsidiaries & affiliate companies and their respective officers,
directors, employees, agents and representatives from any and all claims arising directly or indirectly out of and in connection of the recipient activities
conducted in connection with this report.
35