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Competitiveness Foresight
Presentation by Percy Mistry and Nikhil Treebhoohun,
University of Mauritius, November 2005
What orientations for Mauritius?
“Two
roads diverged in a wood
and I-- I took the one less
travelled by,
And that has made all the
difference”, Robert Frost
Economic growth rate
25
20
GDP growth rate (%)
15
10
5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
-5
-10
-15
Year
1995
2000
2005
2010
DRIVERS
NIS QUESTIONS
•
•
•
•
•
•
Have we reached the limits of our production
possibilities?
What type of innovation is required to take us on a
high-growth path?
Do we have enough competencies to identify the
new sources of growth?
Do we have enough resources to support new
sources of growth?
How do we make Mauritius more attractive to the
outside world in the new environment?
What are we willing to trade-off to have higher
growth?
COMPETITIVENESS FORESIGHT
•
1. What is foresight?
SCENARIO BUILDING
PARTICIPANTS
•
•
•
•
Public sector – 17
Private sector – 27
NESC stakeholders – 12
International organizations – 4
KEY CHALLENGE
• With Mauritius’ future as a sugar
producer looking bleak, powerful
competitive pressures being placed on
textiles and garments exports, OECD
placing limits on financial sector
competition, and finite limits on high
value tourism, what should the island’s
strategy for growth and development be
for the next 10 years and beyond?
Employment Trends
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
02
00
20
98
20
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
19
19
66
Sugar
Textiles
Tourism
Finance
Mauritius Trade Preference
Schemes
• EU Cotonou Agreement (formerly the
LOME Convention)
• US African Growth and Opportunity Act
(AGOA)- Wearing and Apparel Provision
REGIONAL TRADE
Trade with regional partners, 2002
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
Rs 000
10,000,000
5,000,000
ACP
COMESA
SADC
IOR
Imports
Exports
1. What orientations for Mauritius?
GDP Trend under 2 Scenarii
180000
GDP at constant 1992 prices (Rs M)
160000
140000
120000
100000
GDP (19922004)
80000
GDP (20052014)-4%
growth
GDP (20052014)-8%
growth
60000
40000
20000
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
2010
2015
Table 5: GDP per capita under
different scenarii of economic
growth
Average
Annual
3
Growth rate
(%)
4
Year where
2003
GDP
per
capita
doubles
2039 2027
(Population
growth of 1%
per annum)
5
6
7
8
2021
2018
2015
2014
CONSTRAINTS
1. SOCIO-POLITICAL CONSTRAINTS
2. ABSENCE OF AN INTEGRATED STRATEGY
3. INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
4. LACK OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP
5. ATTITUDE/ MINDSET TOWARDS OPENNESS
6. CHANGING MENTAL MODELS
7. HUMAN RESOURCES
8. MARKETING
9. LEADERSHIP
10. FOREIGN POLICY
11. GLOBAL / REGIONAL INTEGRATION
Challenges of Openness I
• What internal stresses and strains
will such a change in orientation
create?
• How will they be handled?
Challenges of Openness II
A painful transition
• What will that transition entail?
Challenges of Openness II
• How will it be financed?
• How will domestic dislocations be taken
care of?
• How will political support be garnered?
• How will the Mauritian electorate be taken
on board so that there is as near universal
a societal consensus as possible that this
change is necessary and positive (i.e. to
be embraced rather than resisted)?
Challenges of Openness III
• What future will Mauritius face if this
transition to openness is not made -i.e. what are the costs of inaction?
WAY FORWARD
• Practising openness which is reciprocal,
non-selective, symmetrical
• Creating the best operating platform
• Developing a world-class regulatory
capacity to ensure that competition is level
and completely clean.
WAY FORWARD
• multidisciplinary technical teams:
examine fully the consequences and work
out the implications for opening up in
terms of essential changes in policy and
the administration of policy as far as the
following are concerned: i.e. fiscal policy,
monetary policy, exchange rate policy,
immigration policy, urban development
policy and FDI entry/exit policy,
changes in government behaviour and
business behaviour
WAY FORWARD
• outline a marketing strategy for selling
brand Mauritius to the world as the best
platform on which to undertake globally
orientated ICT/BPO business, and
• to work out a roadmap for managing "the
transition”.
OBJECTIVES
• To build socio-political consensus on the
direction
• To elaborate an integrated strategy
• To create an attractive investment climate
• To enhance institutional capacity in both
public and private sectors
• To promote a culture of entrepreneurship
• To nurture an open mindset
OBJECTIVES
• To attract high skilled manpower
• To review the marketing strategy and
branding of Mauritius
• To develop competent leadership at all
levels with emphasis on governance and
meritocracy
• To gear foreign policy towards
achievement of the above objectives