Transcript Presentación de PowerPoint

Damage Overview
Overall damages assessment
Social
Environment
Total Damage
Productive
Infrastructure
Contents
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Avoid double accounting
Addition of damages and losses
Determing magnitude of disaster
Focalization on most affected sectors,
geographical areas, vulnerable groups
Possible duplications
 Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery losses to be
measured at prices paid to farmers; not at
wholesale or retail prices
 Water supply and sanitation damage and losses to
be estimated separately from Human Settlements
sector
 Farm roads to be included in Agriculture and
Livestock sector; not in transport
 Tourism sector should not include damage to
roads or other transport infrastructure and assets
 Damage to lands and soils to be included in
Agriculture sector and also in Environment, but
should not be added to ascertain total damages
 Solution: Coordination of results among
assesment specialists and care during total
damage assessment
Total disaster damage
Addition of sectoral direct and indirect
effects
Minus any possible duplications
between sectoral estimates
Only damages and losses that can be
measured in terms of national
accounts should be included
Total estimated damage, million US$
Sector and subsector
120
20
16
84
Total
Damages
617
211
72
334
97
3
19
75
375
13
4
358
472
16
23
433
Productive Sectors
Agriculture and Livestock
Industry and Commerce
244
39
205
96
55
41
339
93
246
Environment
102
1
103
Other losses
--
73
73
939
665
1,604
Social Sectors
Education and Culture
Health
Housing and Human Settlm´ts
Infraestructure
Electricity
Water and Sanitation
Transport
Total
Direct
Damages
496
190
56
250
Indirect
Losses
Gross and net amount of damages
Any expected insurance refunds must
be deducted from total damages in
order to arrive at a net amount of
damages
Any expected reinsurance payments
from abroad must be taken into
consideration for the analysis of
external sector
The costs of reconstruction
Replacement of lost or damaged assets must
be made at present construction or
purchase price of goods
In addition, the cost of preventive and
mitigation works and measures must be
included to reduce future damages
The cost of reconstruction does not include
production losses, nor the increased
expenses and/or decreased revenues in the
provision of services
It should include the cost for economic
reactivation when necessary
The magnitude of the disaster
• Total amount of damages versus GDP
• Production losses versus GDP or
national exports
• Lost assets versus annual rate of
gross capital formation
• Lost assets versus construction
sector GDP
• Lost assets versus national debt
• Per capita damages
Comparison of recent disasters
Million US$
30000
29500
20000
10000
6197
7545
3237
6018
0
1985 Mexico Earthquake
Hurricane Andrew USA
Mitch in Central Americ
El Niño Andean region
Venezuela floods 1999
Comparison of magnitudes
15
10
13.2
5
1.4
3.6
0.4
3.3
0
DañoDamage
total versus
PIB %
Total
vs GDP,
Mexico earthquake 1985
Hurricane Andrew U
Mitch in Central America
El Niño Andean region
Venezuela Floods 1999
Comparison of selected disasters
Breakdown of total damages
•Direct damages
•Indirect losses
•Damage to assets
•Damage to production
•Increased costs and
decreased revenues
•Public sector
•Private sector
El Salvador: breakdown of damages
and losses
31%
64%
5%
ASSETS
PRODUCTION
INCREASED SPENDING
Spatial distribution of damage
Use of special software to determine the
spatial or geographical distribution of
damages
Enables the definition of most affected
geographical areas or regions that
deserve priority in reconstruction
Distribución geográfica del daño ocasionado por
SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION
OF DAMAGES
los terremotos
de enero y febrero de 2001
(Daño per capita, US$EARTHQUAKES,
por habitante)
EL SALVADOR
2001
Damage per capita, US$/inhabitant
N
W
E
S
CHALATENANGO
SANTA ANA
AHUACHAPAN
CABAÑAS
CUSCATLAN
MORAZAN
SAN SALVADOR
SONSONATE
SAN VICENTE
1,533
LA LIBERTAD
LA UNION
LA PAZ
SAN MIGUEL
USULUTAN
Daños per capita total
menos de 100
100 a 500
500 a 1000
1000 y más
30
0
30
60 Kilometers
Fuente: CEPAL
Distribución
geográfica del of
daño
ocasionado
Spatial
distribution
per
capita por
los terremotos de enero y febrero de 2001
damage
to GDP
(Daño total/PIB, %)
22%
57%
N
W
CHALATENANGO
E
S
SANTA ANA
CABAÑAS
CUSCATLAN
AHUACHAPAN
MORAZAN
SAN SALVADOR
SONSONATE
LA LIBERTAD
SAN VICENTE
LA UNION
LA PAZ
SAN MIGUEL
USULUTAN
31%
% del PIB
menos de 5
5 a 18
18 a 35
35 y más
30
0
19%
30
60 Kilometers
Fuente: CEPAL
Human development index in 1999
EFECTOS DEL TERREMOTO DEL 13 DE ENERO DE 2001 EN EL SALVADOR
DISTRIBUCION ESPACIAL DEL INDICE DE DESARROLLO HUMANO (IDH)
N
W
CHALATENANGO
0.640
SANTA ANA
E
S
0.686
AHUACHAPAN
CUSCATLAN
0.696
0.625
SONSONATE
CABANAS
0.608
MORAZAN
0.617
SAN SALVADOR
0.668
LA LIBERTAD
0.764
0.726
SAN VICENTE
LA PAZ
0.667
LA UNION
0.646
SAN MIGUEL
USULUTAN
0.627
0.687
0.654
IDH para El Salvador 0.702
Indice Desarrollo Humano
0.608
0.627
0.654
0.696
20
0
-
0.627
0.654
0.696
0.764
20
40
60 Kilometers
Fuente: PNUD, Cifras preliminares del informe
sobre desarrollo humano de El Salvador , año 2000.
Human development after the disaster
Most affected single sectors
6% 5%
39%
21%
29%
SOCIAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
PRODUCTIVE
ENVIRONMENT
OTHERS
Identification of the effects on
vulnerable sectors/groups
The analysis provides means to identify
the most affected sectors, and
population groups
Use may be made of per capita damage
estimates in comparison to per capita
income maps
Most affected population groups
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