Transcript lotze-campen_Geoshare_Demand_140911

What Geoshare may do for us
Hermann Lotze-Campen
Geoshare Workshop
Purdue, 11 Sep 2014
Integrated Assessment Modelling at PIK
MAGICC
(climate)
GHG emissions
Aerosols
Temp.
change
Climate change
Extreme events
Sea-level risey
REMIND (energy)
Energy
system
CO2
Albedo
Scenarios
constraints
Bioenergy costs
LUC emissions
Bioenergy demand
CO2 price
LPJmL (vegetation)
Land use pattern
Constraints
(yields, water, land)
MAgPIE
(land use)
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11 Sep 2014
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Calories and Livestock Share
International Trade
ptb
Population
Regional
Demand
Income /
GDP
1- ptb
Socio-Economic Data
SelfSufficiencies
Comparative
Advantage
Regional
Supply
regional
- cost and investment data
Biophysical inputs (LPJmL)
MAgPIE
overview
-
crop yields
land / water constraints
vegetation and soil carbon
Land Pools
on 0.5° grid
on 0.5° grid
based on FAO, IUCN and WRI
on 0.5° grid
Transport Costs (JRC)
Cropping Patterns
MAgPIE
Water Scarcity
Deforestation Rate
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MIP on
climate induced changes in
agricultural prices by 2050
(AgMIP Global
Economics Team)
Nelson et al.,
PNAS, 2014
Special issue
Von Lampe
et al.,
Hermann
Lotze-Campen
Ag.Econ. 2014
11 Sep 2014
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Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - data
•
Acknowledging spatial and temporal variability (soil, water,
productivity, climate impacts, emission factors, …)
•
Bringing more geography into economics (land quality,
transportation, market access) [e.g. precision farming]
•
Linking monetary and biophysical dimensions
•
Linking modelling outputs to poverty and food/nutrition security
(where are the (poor) people?)
•
Provision of (alternative) standardized input data sets
•
Thinking beyond cropland: reducing uncertainties on all major
landuse types (crop, pasture, forest, urban, …) and livestock
•
Model validation, exploring of uncertainties, model improvement
•
Harmonization of inputs for model intercomparisons
•
Accessability, transparency, replicability of modelling results
(e.g. AgMIP GlobEcon results, IAM SSP results)
(see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011)
Hermann Lotze-Campen
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Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - workflows
•
Integration of global and regional modelling approaches (e.g. on
crop modelling, hydrology, CC adaptation) [and data sets]
•
Linking local management options to large-scale assessments
•
Standardizing the climate-biophysical-economics modelling chain
for external users
•
Linking the agriculture and energy sectors
•
BUT: Who are the actual workflow users?
•
Possible way forward: Provide "reduced" versions of complex
models for selected workflows for external users?
•
Can Geoshare/HUB be used for managing the AgMIP econ process?
•
Options for distributed funding:
e.g. German BMBF-funded project with link to Geoshare
(see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011)
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AgMIP Global Economics modelling standards
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Definition of regions
•
Definition of sectors/crop groups: wht, cgn, ric, osd, sug, CR5
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GDP, Population
•
Agricultural productivity growth
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Conversion from grid to regions/countries
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Definition of output variables
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CSV files for inputs/outputs
•
XLS pivot tables
•
R code for post-processing
•
Dropbox for data exchange
•
Group management: provide inputs and collect outputs
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Needed: Software for iterative analysis/assessment of results
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