Transcript CHAPTER 12 File

Chapter 12
Managing the Macroeconomy
• Stagflation: it occurs when recession and
inflation takes place simultaneously in the
economy.
Five Macroeconomic Objectives
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Stable Prices
Full employment
Sustained Economic Growth
External Balances
Protection of the Environment
Stable Prices:
Price stability has become the primary objective of
most governments that wish to secure long-term
growth and full employment.
Inflation is a process of rising prices.
– The inflation rate is measured as a percentage
change in the average level of prices or the price
level.
– Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Deflation is negative inflation, the price level is
falling.
Inflation
In December 1995, the CPI was 153.5
In December 1996, it was 158.6.
How would the inflation rate for
1996 be calculated?
Inflation
The inflation rate for 1996 was:
Inflation =
158.6 – 153.5  100
153.5
= 3.3%
Is Inflation a Problem?
Predictability of inflation rates creates
problems:
High, unpredictable inflation causes
resources to be diverted to predicting
inflation rates.
This is a wasteful use of resources.
Is Inflation a Problem?
Hyperinflation
– Inflation in excess of 50% per month
– Workers are paid daily
• Money loses value rapidly
• Workers spend their incomes quickly
1994
• Zaire — 76% per month
• Brazil — 40% per month
Is Inflation a Problem?
Policies that reduce the inflation rate
increase the unemployment rate.
Sustained Economic Growth
Economic growth is the expansion of the
economy’s production possibilities.
Measured by real gross domestic product
(Real GDP)
The value of the total production of all the
nation’s farms, factories, shops, and offices
linked back to the prices of a single year
(1992)
The Growth of Potential GDP
When an economy’s labor, capital, land, and
entrepreneurial ability are fully employed.
Real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP
Growth slowed during the 1970s
Productivity growth slowdown.
External Balance
Deficits
A government budget deficit exists if the
federal government spends more than it
collects in taxes.
Deficits
An international deficit exists if our imports
exceed our exports.
Current Account
Our exports minus our imports; but it also
takes interest payment paid to and received
from the rest of the world into account.
Do Deficits Matter?
Governments must borrow if it spends
more than it earns in tax revenue.
If the borrowed funds are used to
purchase assets that earn a profit, the
investment may be sound.
Government Policy Instruments
• Fiscal Policy
• Monetary Policy
• Direct Policy
Macroeconomic Policy
Challenges and Tools
Policy Tools (cont.)
1) Fiscal policy
Making changes in taxes and government
spending.
• Long-term growth
• Smooth the business cycle
Macroeconomic Policy
Challenges and Tools
Policy Tools (cont.)
2) Monetary policy
Changing interest rates and the amount of
money in the economy
• Control inflation
• Smooth business cycle
Coordination of fiscal and monetary
policy
• 3) Direct Policy
• Many other government economic policies
tend to be more ‘objective specific’
compared with the broad macro fiscal and
monetary policy options we have
considered so far. We refer to these
instruments as direct policy, but it is also
known as direct control or direct
intervention.
Macroeconomic Management
• Figure 12.2 Business Fluctuations
• BUSINESS CYCLE
– The business cycle occurs because aggregate
demand and the short-run aggregate supply fluctuate,
but the money wage does not change rapidly enough
to keep real GDP at potential GDP.
– A below full-employment equilibrium is an
equilibrium in which potential GDP exceeds real GDP.
– An above full-employment equilibrium is an
equilibrium in which real GDP exceeds potential GDP.
– A full-employment equilibrium is an equilibrium in
which real GDP equals potential GDP.
Fluctuations Around Potential GDP
The business cycle is the periodic, but
irregular up-and-down movement in
production.
Phases of the Business Cycle
Recession
– Period during which real GDP decreases for
two successive quarters.
Expansion
– Period during which real GDP increases.
Economic Growth in the
United States
Turning Points
Peak
– Expansion ends, recession begins.
Trough
– Recession ends, expansion begins.
Economic Forecasting
• Exogenous variables are external to the
economy in so far as they are determined
by world events and policy (i.e oil prices
and exchange rates)
• Endogenous variables are dependent on
what goes on within an economy (i.e
employment and inflation)
Functions of the Construction
Sector
• Improving business performance and profitability in
construction
• Improving the construction process, technologies and
techniques
• Tackling people issues, such as recruitment and
development
• Promoting and sponsoring research and development
• Improving awareness of the benefits of information
technology
• Leading on sustainability in construction
• Promoting overseas activities by the construction
industry
• Engaging the industry in regulation and policy
development