Transcript Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses

Craig K.Elwell
Presented by : Mahmoud Arab
How to fight deflation ?
Government take actions to support
current aggregate spending that
exerts upward pressure on the price
level to counterforce a negative
demand shock.
General classes of policy responses:
• Macroeconomic policy
•The Fed’s traditional role of “ lender
last resort ”
Monetary policy:
•Most frequently used tool to influence credit
conditions, economic activity, and the price
level.
•Implemented by targeting ( raising or lowering)
the short-term federal funds rate.
•Fed buys or sells Treasury securities for cash to
increase or decrease liquidity in the financial
markets.
•Fed purchased securities for cash and pushed
down the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 0.25
in 2007.
“ Unable to get traction”:
•Monetary stimulus's lack of effect on real economic
activity in times of financial crisis when the demand
for liquidity increases sharply.
• Banks’ lack of the needed degree of confidence.
•Increase banks’ reserves and liquidity rather than
increasing lending activity.
•Keeping an adequate flow if credit (liquidity)
moving to support spending in the non-financial
sectors.
Fed is prevented from using normal operating
procedures of targeting interest rate to apply
the degree of monetary stimulus needed to
increase aggregate spending and counter
inflation.
Fed could try to change financial market interest
rate expectation:
If central bank can persuade the public that
it will hold down the short-term interest
rate to near zero for longer than had been
expected, interest rates across the whole
term structure should also fall, stimulating
spending.
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Fed could alter the composition of its balance sheet
shifting from liquid short-term low-risk assets
toward less liquid long-term assets or other riskier
assets “ qualitative easing”:
◦ Selling short term treasuries.
◦ Buying long term treasuries or other log term assets such
as asset-backed securities.
◦ Could lower long term yields to provide stimulus to
economic activity.
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Feds’ balance sheet since 2008 and 2009 shifted
from consisting 100% Treasury securities to having
two-thirds of it holdings in agency related
securities.
The average maturity of the fed’s investment portfolio has
increased from 3.5 years to nearly 7 years.
“ quantitative easing”
Fed could expand the size of the Fed’s
balance sheet, by increasing its
monetary liabilities through buying
securities to increase the supply of
reserves in the banking system
Fed undertook a huge increase of its
balance sheet from about 900 billion in
late 2007 to about 2.3 trillion in mid2010
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Fed may also require to shift from its operating
procedure fir conducting monetary policy from
targeting interest rates to targeting inflation rate
by announcing a target path for the price level.
Successful inflation targeting policy needs:
◦ Fed must convince the markets that it is credible by
vigorously and transparently pursing policies that are
consistent with reaching the inflation target.
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Fed’s open market committee indicate that the
Fed would begin to make available to the public
the committee’s long-term inflation projections
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Fed offers credit to solvent but temporarily
illiquid financial institutions
Another form of qualitative easing (changing
composition of feds’ balance sheet)
The borrowers are financial institutions with
assets exceeding liabilities
The Fed’s “discount window” is its facility
for making loans to financial institutions
with short term liquidity problems charging
them an interest rate called “ discount rate”.
To bolster the liquidity of the financial
system during 2008-2009, the Fed took a
variety of actions that more than doubled
reserve bank credit by injecting 1.5 trillion
of new reserves into the financial system.
Support aggregate spending and exert
upward pressure on the price level
through increasing budget deficit.
Fiscal policy has a direct impact on
economic activity.
Fiscal policies responses to the financial crisis:
•120 billion dollars package that provided tax
rebates to households and accelerated
depreciation rules for businesses.
•787 billion dollars package with 286 billion
dollars tax cuts and 501 billion dollars of
spending increases that were projected to add
fiscal stimulus equivalent to about 2% of GDP in
2009 and 2.5% of GDP in 2010.
•Unemployment Compensation Extension Act of
2010 was enacted.
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Deflation is generated by a negative demand
shock.
The experience of the US during the Great
Depression and that of Japan since 1990’s
gives strong testimony of the economic costs
of deflation.
Deflation risk indicators:
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Low inflation rate and decelerating.
Large output gap persists.
Slowing money supply growth.
Continuing zero bound nominal short term interest
rate.
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Monetary and fiscal stimulus are the
macroeconomic policies needed to fight
deflation by directly or indirectly increasing
aggregate demand to boost economic
activity.
Monetary and fiscal policies will also work in
theory to shift consumer and business
expectations from deflation to inflation
Thank You