Transcript Percentage of population aged 14 years and

66° Congresso Nazionale di Pediatria
Tendenze demografiche, cambiamenti tecnologici e crescita
economica nei paesi avanzati
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Membro del Comitato esecutivo,
Banca centrale europea
Average contribution to real per capita GDP growth
(Growth rates, in % )
Euro area
United States
Source: ECB computation on World Bank, WDI database
1
United Kingdom
Brazil
China
1996-2004
1985-1995
1996-2008
Demographic factors
1985-1995
1996-2008
1985-1995
1996-2008
Employment rate
1985-1995
1996-2008
1985-1995
1996-2008
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
1985-1995
Labour Productivity
India
Trends in youth population
(Percentage of population aged 14 years and below)
1985
2008
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Italy
Source: World Bank.
2
Euro area
United
Kingdom
United
States
China
Brazil
India
Trends in working age population
(Percentage of population aged between 15 and 64)
1985
2008
73
71
69
67
65
63
61
59
57
55
India
Source: World Bank.
3
Italy
United
Kingdom
Euro area
United
States
Brazil
China
Developments in R&D expenditure
(Public expenditure on R&D as % of GDP)
1996
3.0
2007
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Source: World Bank.
Note: For Italy and Brazil the latest available data point is 2006.
4
United
States
Germany
France
Euro Area
United
Kingdom
China
Spain
Italy
Brazil
India
0.0
Human capital and economic growth
35000
LU
CH
30000
JP
US
NO
IS
DK
(constant 2000 USD)
Real GDP per capita
25000
SE
UK
20000
FR
FI
AT
AU
BE
DE
15000
CA
NL
IE
IT
NZ
ES
10000
GR
PT
5000
TR
0
4
5
6
7
8
9
Number of years of schooling
Sources: Barro-Lee (2010); World Bank, WDI database.
5
10
11
12
13
Growing wage premium to high skilled labour
and wage differential in the US
Source: Goldin and Katz (2007).
Note: “College graduate wage premium” is based on the college / high school wage differential (in logs). “High school graduate wage premium”
is based on the high school / eighth grade wage differential (in logs).
6
Relative earnings from employment, by level of
educational attainment for 25-64 year-olds, 2007
Below upper secondary education
Tertiary education
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United
Kingdom
United States
Source: OECD.
Note: upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education = 100. Data for Italy refer to 2006 (latest available year).
“…when it comes to changes in the wage structure and returns to skill, supply changes
are critical, and education changes are by far the most important on the supply
side.” (Goldin and Katz, 2007)
7
Level of education
Percentage of population with at least upper
secondary education (2008)
25-34 years-old
Percentage of population with tertiary
education (2008)
55-64 years-old
25-34 years-old
100
55-64 years-old
45
90
40
80
35
70
30
60
Source: OECD.
8
Brazil
Italy
Germany
EA average
United
Kingdom
Spain
0
France
0
Brazil
5
Spain
10
Italy
10
United Kingdom
20
EA average
15
France
30
Germany
20
United States
40
United States
25
50
Public spending on education
(Total public spending on education as % of government expenditure)
2000
2006
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Italy
Source: World Bank.
9
Germany France
Spain
Euro
area
United
States
Brazil
India
China
Full-time graduate students in science and engineering
in the US (I)
Total
US citizens and permanent residents
Temporary Visa holders
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1985
Source: National Science Foundation.
10
1990
1995
2000
2005
Full-time graduate students in science and engineering
in the US (II)
(% of total graduates )
US citizens and permanent residents
Temporary Visa holders
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1985
Source: National Science Foundation.
11
2008
Countries of origin of non-US citizens earning PhDs at
US colleges and universities
(% of total doctorates awarded)
1997
2007 - 2008
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
China
India
Germany
Italy
Source: National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago.
12
Brazil
France
Spain
United
Kingdom