Transcript The 2008 SNA implementation

The 2008 SNA
implementation
strategy
Clementina Ivan-Ungureanu
Training: Essential SNA: Building the basics
Addis Ababa, 13-16 February 2012
The 2008 SNA
implementation strategy
• The ways of implementing the system
vary greatly and depend on the general
strategy adopted for the statistical
system.
• The SNA implementation strategy is
part of the overall strategy of the
statistical system
Phases
•
•
•
•
Phase A: Aims and objectives
Phase B: Organization
Phase C: Compilation
Phase D: Dissemination
The SNA implementation strategy
MRDS
Country conditions
Define the objectives
Phase A
Organization
Institutional
context
National
Accounts
department
Data collection Human resources
process
Central frame
National
accounts
compilation
strategy
IT tools used for
national
accounts
estimation
Phase B
Product detail
Classifications
Sectorization
Identification and analysis of
data sources
Collection of data
Translation into national
accounts concepts
Estimation of indicators
Revision policy
Phase C
Dissemination strategy
Define
Dissemination Define the content of publications Define the calendar for
the users
methods
and other documents
dissemination
Phase D
Phase A: Aims and
objectives
The decision on whether to implement the
SNA is based on:
– Availability of data sources supporting
its implementation.
- Institutional capacity of the unit in charge
of implementing the SNA;
– Needs of national and international
users for national accounts indicators
Phase A: Aims and objectives
(cont)
The targets can refer to the six
‘milestones’ adopted by the UN Statistical
Commission and the MRDS
Guidelines
ISWGNA developed a set of six milestones to
assess the scope of accounts that are
compiled by countries. These milestones
were later supplemented by three data sets
describing
(a) minimum set of accounts that need to be
compiled;
(b) a recommended set of accounts;
(c) and a desired set of accounts.
Phase of
impleme
ntation
General description
National accounts
indicators
Phase of implementation
PreSNA
phases
Basic data
(production etc)
Phase
1
Basic indicators of
GDP at current
and constant
prices
- Final expenditures
on GDP;
- GDP by industry
-Supply and Use
worksheets ;
-Other BOP transactions
(income transfers, capital
and financial);
-Government Financial
Statistics (GFS)
transaction accounts.
Phase
2
GNI and other
primary indicators
External account of
primary income and
current transfers;
-Capital and
financial accounts
for the rest of the
world
- Capital stock statistics;
- BOP stock statistics;
-GFS stock statistics;
-Monetary and other
financial flow statistics.
SNA related data and
development
Basic data (production
etc.)
-Balance of Payments
(BOP) of goods and
services;
- Monetary stock statistics
- Price indices
(consumer, producer,
wholesale)
- Quarterly National
Accounts (QNA );
- Regional
accounts;
- Satellite accounts
for environment
and other country
priority for satellite
accounts;
- Input-output
analysis
Phase of
implement
ation
General description
National accounts indicators
Phase of
implementati
on
SNA related data and
development
Phase 3
Institutional sector
accounts: first
steps
- Production account for all
institutional sectors;
-Generation of income;
- Allocation of primary
income;
- Secondary distribution
income;
- Use of incomes;
- Capital accounts and
financial accounts for
general government
Same as
for phase
2
Same as for
phase 2
Phase 4
Institutional sector
accounts:
intermediate steps
- Generation of income;
- Allocation of primary
income;
- Secondary distribution
income;
- Use of incomes;
- Capital accounts for all
institutional sectors other
than government
Same as
for phase
2
Same as for
phase 2
Phase 5
Institutional sector
accounts: last of
the transactions
Financial accounts for all
institutional sectors other
than general government
accounts.
Same as
for phase
2
Same as for
phase 2
Phase 6
Other flows,
accounts and
balance sheets
-Other changes in assets
accounts for all institutional
sectors;
-Balance sheets
Same as
for phase
2
Same as for
phase 2
Minimum Requirement Data Sets
Minimum Requirement Data Sets (MRDS)
Table
Number
in NAQ
T-101
T-102
T-201
T-202
T-203
T-401
T-402
Annual Accounts
Expenditures of the GDP at current prices
Expenditures of the GDP at constant prices
Value added and GDP by industry at current prices
Value added and GDP by industry at constant prices
Value-added components by industry at current prices and
employment by industry
Accounts for the total economy
Accounts of the Rest of the world (up to net lending)
Recommended Data Sets (RDS)
Classification of expenditures by purpose, Annual Accounts
Institutional Sector, Annual Accounts
Integrated Accounts and Tables, Annual Accounts
Supply and use table, Annual Accounts
Value Added, GDP and Employment, Quarterly Accounts
Institutional Sector, Quarterly Accounts
Integrated Accounts and Tables, Quarterly Accounts
Desirable data sets (DDS)
Tourism accounts, Environmental accounts, SAM and other socioeconomic
accounts
Purpose classification of expenditure at constant prices
Financial and capital stock accounts
Phase A: Aims and objectives
(cont)
Possible objectives
a. Estimating GDP by expenditure and
production approaches, by industry;
The main results are:
– GDP in current and constant prices by
production and expenditure side
– P, IC and GVA by industry.
Corresponds to milestone 1 and allows the
country to meet part of the MRDS (Tables
101, 102, 201, 202)
Phase A: Aims and objectives
(cont)
b. ROW accounts- MRDS table T402
c. GNI and other primary indicators such as:
compensation of employees, mixed income,
taxes on production;
d. Employment by industry
e. SUTs and production and generation of income
account by institutional sector;
f. Full sequence of accounts for institutional
sectors; estimating accounts for the rest of the
world;
g. Financial accounts for institutional sectors;
h. Balance sheets
Phase A: Aims and objectives
(cont)
Factors for deciding objectives:
- statistical capacity for providing the data sources
for NA;
- the human resources (number and level of
knowledge)
- possibility to use administrative data
- structure of the economy, especially the extent
of the informal sector and the ability of data
sources.
• Generally, implementation of SNA starts with the
compilation of GDP by production and
expenditure approaches
Phase B: Organization
1. Institutional context
2. Organizational aspect
- NA Department
- Human resources
- Data collection
Phase B: Organization
1.Institutional context
Institution in charge of implementing and
developing national accounts.
• In a large percentage of countries, the
national accounts are the
responsibility of the national
statistical office.
Phase B: Organization2. Organizational aspect
Conditions for SNA implementation refers to:
- organization of the NAD
- mobilizing and developing human
resources
- cooperation within the statistical office
- cooperation with other administrative
institutions
- tasks for NA compilation (for example
government accounts by the MoF )
Phase B: OrganizationNAD
Implementation of national accounts requires:
- Existence of basic conditions: SBR and
classifications
- Main statistics: economic statistics, household
statistics, prices, etc.;
- Coordination and cooperation between different
departments in NSI
- Cooperation with other administrative institutions
in order to access the data required for
compiling national accounts.
Phase B: OrganizationNAD
(cont)
Typical tasks of a NAD are:
- Collecting statistical and administrative data
sources;
- Translating the statistical and administrative
data sources into concepts of national
accounts.
- Elaborating national accounts indicators;
- Preparing publications and other documents
for the dissemination of national accounts;
- Making proposals and taking actions to
improve data sources and compilation
methods to meet SNA requirements
A list of possible specialisations and number of persons in one national accounts
department
POSSIBLE
TASKS
REQUIREMENTS
NUMBER OF
PERSONS
Production, intermediate
consumption and gross value added
by main activity in current and
constant prices ( agriculture, mining,
manufacturing industry, electricity,
construction, transport,
communication services, financial
services, other services)
Government indicators
Household Final Consumption
GFC
Balancing the system and final
estimations
The experts could be responsible for one ( as
agriculture) or several branches linked ( as
for example construction and row materials
industry used for construction)
The expert could be responsible for the
elaboration of the production, intermediate
consumption, GVA and the Final
Consumption of Government
Specialisation related to budget surveys and
un-incorporated enterprises
The person in charge with the construction
activity could be also responsible for the
elaboration of the GFCF
Coordination of the activity, experience and
good knowledge of national accounts
3-5
1
1
1
2
1.Government accounts; regional accounts sector
a. P,IC and GVA of Government by activity( A and Q),
regions
b. Taxes and subsides on product and productions, by
activity (A and Q),by products(A)
c. Final consumption of Government (A and Q) , by
products (A)
d. Government accounts ( central, local, security
funds)(A)
e. Regional accounts (A)
1a;1b;1
c
1.a
a
1b;1c
1.c
4. Institutional sectors accounts
a. For S11, S12, S14 and S15
b.IEA
c. Dissemination of data
1. d
2a;2e
eee
2a;2e
2.Annual national accounts sector
a. P,IC,GVA by activities (A);
b. GFCF (A and Q)
c. FCHH (A and Q)
d. Change in inventory (A )
e.NOE by activity, users (A and Q) and
products (A)
f. Dissemination of data
Correlation
1a;1b;1c
Correlation
2b,2c,2e
2e
2a;2b;2c;2
d
Corr
elati
on
3 IOT sector
a. Supply elements by activities (including
import-export)
b.Uses elements by activity
c.ROW account
d. SUT
d. Dissemination of data
5. Quarterly national accounts
3c
a. QGDP by production
b. QGDP by expenditure
c. Dissemination of data
I-E data
Phase B: OrganizationHuman resources
Profile:
- A university education, wherever possible, in economics or
statistics;
- Work experience in different economic domains;
- Ability to understand and apply the SNA methodology;
- Good knowledge of economic legislation and economic
phenomena in the country;
- Good knowledge of the economic and social indicators existing
in the statistical and administrative system.
To obtain this high level of professional capability the staff
- Should be permanently trained
- Should be supported by the institution management
Phase B: OrganizationHuman resources
( cont)
Professional independence of national accountants for :
- the definition of the system and its adaptation to the countr
- the methods used for estimating national accounts;
- the access to information, especially when it is protected
(fiscal sources, defence information, etc.);
- treatment and measurement of ‘special’ aspects of the
economy, such as illegal activity (illegal labor, drug
production, etc.) that are in fact the weak points of political
power;
- responsibility for the main indicators, such as GDP,
economic growth rate or revenue distribution, especially
when the values are different from government forecasts or
expectations
Phase B: OrganizationData collection
The next step is to establish formal
relationships for ensuring availability of
the data for compiling national
accounts.
- Internal cooperation : industrial statistics,
foreign trade, agriculture,
demographics, education, health,
prices, etc
- External cooperation; administrative
data
Phase B: OrganizationData collection
(cont)
Access to data:
- agreements, protocols or memorandums
Content:
- The data to be delivered;
- The level of detail of the data (individual,
aggregated, by region, etc.)
- The frequency (monthly, yearly, etc.);
- The data collection method (access to data
base, electronic format, paper, etc.).
Phase B: OrganizationData collection (cont)- Protocol
• Legal framework: law / regulation on the organization and
functioning of the each institution party in the protocol
<Institution1> and <Institution2> agreed following:
- The objective of the Protocol: main goal of the protocol
- Duration Protocol
- Obligations of partis: change of data, confidentiality
- Notifications/Communication: Mentioned type of
communication (written, by telephone, fax, email)
- Annexes
• description and structure of data files which are changed
between parteners
• working group responsabilities
• nomenclatures
• type of transmission, type of file, name of file
• description of the File Structure
• deadline for transmission
Phase C: Compilation
The main phases are:
- Designing the central framework;
- Identifying data sources;
- Collecting data;
- Translating data into national accounts
concepts;
- Elaborating estimates;
- Data revision.
Statistical
system
Administrative
system
Qualitative
information
Identification and analysis of data sources
necessary for NA compilation
Looking for a
new data
sources
Implementing
new statistical
source
No
Improvement of
administrative
sourcessource
No
Translate the
data into NA
concepts
Is the
information
useful for
NA?
Yes
Yes
Are the data
coherent with
the NA
concepts?
Establish the
data collection
processsources
Do the data
cover the
entire
period?
Yes
Estimation of NA
indicators
No Estimation for
the missing
period
Phase C: Compilation
Designing the central
framework
The determination of the four
classifications used in the system:
- Product detail;
- Economic activities;
- Transactions, other flows and stocks;
- Sectorization of the economy
Phase C: Compilation
Identifying data sources
1. Statistical data sources (statistics on
producer sales and production costs, on
investment, on employment, wages and
salaries, on household expenditures, on
consumer prices, on producer prices and
interest rates, on imports and exports, etc)
2. Administrative sources (government
revenue and expenditure, financial
statements of non-financial and financial
units, balance of payments, etc.).
Phase C: Compilation
Identifying data sources
(cont)
Lack of data
Options:
- to carry out a rough estimate of NA
using poor data sources and indirect
information,
- to stop implementation of SNA
implementation and development until
the necessary data sources become
available.
Phase C: Compilation
Identifying data sources (cont)
Actions:
a. Start estimating GDP even if the lack of
information may affect the quality of the initial
results
b. Ensure at the same time that the necessary data
sources are developed. Propose and promote:
– Improvement of the existing statistical data
sources
– Implementation of new statistical surveys that will
provide the missing information;
– Development of collaboration with administrative
institutions to improve or develop their data
sources.
Phase C: Compilation
Collecting data
Main activities:
- Agreements on data delivery: what data will be
delivered, in what detail and with what frequency,
when and in what format, etc.;
- Checks on the data delivered: timeliness, detail and
completeness;
- Data storage in automated systems (spreadsheets
or databases) for compiling national accounts;
- Searches for other relevant quantitative and
qualitative information, e.g. by reading specialized
journals, newspaper articles and annual reports of
various large companies, organizations,
foundations, or by asking corporations, institutions
and experts directly.
Phase C: Compilation
Collecting data (cont)
Steps for the collection of data:
- Decide what data is to be used for
compiling national accounts;
- Decide the level of detail of this data;
- Decide how the data will be delivered to the
national accounts department: on paper, in
electronic format (CD-ROM, by email, etc.)
or direct access to the databases of other
departments;
- Establish the deadline for receiving data.national accountants dissemination
calendar (some data before being
published.
Phase C: Compilation
Translating data into the NA
concepts
Translating statistical and administrative
concepts to national accounts concepts
is to be performed by national
accountants themselves.
Use a system of bridge tables at macroeconomic levels, and specific
adjustments called the intermediate
system.
Phase C: Compilation
Elaborating estimates
Activities:
• Checking data sources, with respect to:
- evolution over time;
- coverage
- plausibility of values and volumes;
- conceptual differences with NA concept
• First estimates of national accounts indicators.
• Second estimate -inclusion of additional or more
complete data
• Balancing procedures and reconciling data to
identify data deficiencies and ensure consistency of
results.
• Final estimates
Phase C: Compilation
Data revision
Important revisions:
1. Routine revisions (or current revisions)
2. Benchmark revisions (or major regular
revisions
3.Methodological revisions (or major
occasional revisions)
Phase C: Compilation
Data revision- example
• T + 70 days: first complete GDP
estimate and main national accounts
aggregates on the basis of quarterly
accounts;
• T + 9 months: first complete annual
accounts estimate of GDP and main
national accounts aggregates;
Phase C: Compilation
Data revision- example
• T + 21 months: first revision of annual
accounts estimate of GDP and main
national accounts aggregates;
• T + 33 months: final revision of annual
accounts estimate of GDP and main
national accounts aggregates
Phase C: Compilation
Data revision- example
Three methodological revisions conducted in Slovenia:
• delimitation of market and non-market units together with
improvement of institutional sectorisation,
• introduction of new methodology for estimation of housing
services of owner-occupiers,
• estimation the consumption of fixed capital (including for public
roads, bridges, etc.) by the perpetual inventory method for the
general government sector,
• improvements of GDP exhaustiveness adjustments and other
improvements of methods
• the change in the bookkeeping of financial intermediation
services indirectly measured (FISIM), which were allocated to
the final users of these services.
• measurement of volume changes at constant previous year
prices was introduced.
The results of this methodological revision were published for the
whole 1995-2004 period.
1999
1. Quarterly accounts, mio SIT
2000
2001
3 637 437
4 045 469
14 566 191
4.9
4.8
3.0
3 648 401
4 035 518
4 566 191
5.2
4.6
3.0
3 839 852
4 222 404
4 740 122
+5.2
+4.6
+3.8
2.2 Second methodological revision,
April 2004, mio n.c.
3 874 720
4 252 315
4 761 815
Change to the previous GDP nominal
level (%)
+0.9
+0.7
+0.5
3 918 974
4 300 350
4 799 552
+1.1
+1.1
+0.8
5.4
4.1
2.7
Volume growth rates (%)
2. Annual accounts, April 2002, mio n.c.
Volume growth rates (%)
2.1 First methodological revision, March
2003, mio n.c.
Change to the previous GDP nominal
level (%)
2.3 Third methodological revision,
September 2005, mio n.c.
Change to the previous GDP nominal
level (%)
Volume growth rates (%)
Developing IT tools for
compiling national
Store data for accounts
NA compilation
- Use the worksheets to convert the
intermediate data obtained from different
sources and specific format to the NA format
- Calculate appropriate NA aggregates
- Check data compatibility
- Tools for the final data reconciliation
process,
- Generate working tables
- Store final estimates of national accounts and
disseminated versions
Administrative
unit level sources
Business register
Statistical
unit level
sources
Load
procedures
Government accounts
Nomenclatures
Db Enterprises
UNIT level
Load
procedures
P, IC, GVA by activities
GFCF
FCHH
Change in inventory
Imputations
procedures
NA indicators
aggregated level
NACE 4digits
size class
regions
productions
institutional sectors
Aggregation
procedures
Annual national accounts
SUT
SUT
IEA
Institutional sector accounts
QGDP
Quarterly national accounts
Regional accounts
Estimations
procedures
Regional accounts
Load
procedures
Administrative
agregated
sources
Statistical
aggregated
sources
1
Compilation national
accounts procedures
Developing IT tools for
compiling national accounts
(cont)
• ERETES (Equilibres ressources
emplois, Tableaux entrées sorties)
• www.eretes.net
Phase D: Dissemination
Strategy answers to the questions
•
•
•
•
WHY
WHAT
HOW
TO WHOM
• Dissemination is a permanent and never
ending process.
Phase D: Dissemination
(cont)
• WHY
- Aims of dissemination activities: NSI
prove its role in the society and provide
the needed indicators
Phase D: Dissemination
• TO HOWM
(cont)
Target groups of dissemination
User categories:
- All levels of government;
- International agencies;
- The private sector;
- Research institutions;
- The public, including the media.
Phase D: Dissemination
(cont)
Grouped into two categories with
respect to the intensity of
statistical use:
- General Data Users:
- Analysis Users:
Phase D: Dissemination (cont)
• Tools to identity the users and their needs:
- By type of users : government, researchers,
media, public (domestic and international)
- The customer/user satisfaction survey is an
important tool to detect user needs and
profiles;
- Database constructed in time with the needs
of users; questionnaires attached to the
publications or on web
- Conferences, workshops
Phase D: Dissemination
(cont)
• WHAT
Some of the “things” we want to disseminate
are at the same time tools of dissemination
- Aggregated data
- Detailed data
- Time series
- Metadata
- Analysis
Phase D: Dissemination
• HOW
(cont)
The process of dissemination
- Press releases, used in general by the media and the
general public with the presentation of the main national
accounts indicators, such GDP, its main components
and growth rate.
- Detailed information on national accounts usually
presented in the Annual Yearbook of each country.
- A special publication with time series of national
accounts indicators, with detailed data, accompanied by
metadata and sometimes by a short economic analysis
based on these indicators.
- Electronic dissemination, via web
Phase D: Dissemination
(cont)
•
As general framework for the statistical
dissemination SDDS and GDDS
• Dimensions and Elements of the SDDS
1. Data Dimension (coverage, periodicity, and
timeliness )
Dissemination of 18 data categories, including
component detail, covering the four main
macroeconomic statistical sectors, with
prescribed periodicity and timeliness
Phase D: Dissemination
(cont)
2. Access Dimension
-Dissemination of advance release
calendars providing notice at least one
quarter ahead of approximate release
dates, and notice at least one week ahead
of the precise release dates
-Simultaneous release of data to all users
Phase D: Dissemination
(cont)
3.Integrity Dimension
- Dissemination of the terms and conditions
under which official statistics are produced
and disseminated;
- Identification of internal government access
to data before release;
- Identification of ministerial commentary on
the occasion of statistical release;
- Provision of information about revision and
advance notice of major changes in
methodology
Phase D: Dissemination
(cont)
4 Quality Dimension
• Dissemination of documentation on
statistical methodology and sources used
in preparing statistics;
• Dissemination of component detail and/or
additional data series that make possible
cross-checks and checks of
reasonableness
Phase D: Dissemination
(cont)
• Principles of a statistical dissemination
strategy:
- relevant for users,
- accurate, reliable, consistent and
comparable
- up-to-date and disseminated in a timely
and punctual manner based on a calendar
- ensure the confidentiality of disseminated
statistical data
- data must be made available on an
impartial and objective basis to all users
Conclusions
• The SNA implementation strategy is
part and the core of the general
strategy of the statistical development
system
• The implementation programme should
be adapted and improved continuous
based on the existing conditions