Transcript 100530_ShanhaiForumPresSubmitted1_Husar

Integrating Frameworks
for
Energy and Climate Policy Analysis.
Rudolf B. HUSAR, Director, Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis,
Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA
Dingli SHEN, Director, Center for American Studies
Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Shanghai Forum 2010
Shanghai, China, May 30, 31
Human-Induced Climate Change:
Connectedness and Interactions along Multiple Dimensions
Spatial: There is ONE atmosphere that circulates the Earth
every two weeks. All countries are connected through the
atmospheric ‘conveyer belt’.
Temporal: CO2 resides in the atmosphere for hundreds of
years. Today’s emissions impact future generations but they
are not present to participate in the in the dialog or bidding.
Analysis Framework I:
Biogeochemical & Energy Flow Loop
Physical Causes of Climate Change
Climate System:
Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Ice
Multiple Drivers of Global Warming
Change of Drivers due to Humans
Some heating other cooling the Earth
If human-induced heating exceeds
the cooling, the atmosphere will be
warming.
IPCC
Analysis Framework II:
Social-Causes of Climate Change
CO2 Emiss. = (Pop) (GDP/Pers) (Energy/GDP) (CO2/Energy)
Carbon Intensity
of Energy Mix
Energy Intensity
of Economy
Economic
Development
Total
Population
Human-induced CO2 emissions are driven by at least three distinct factors
Each represents a different aspect of human-nature interaction
Example:
Drivers of C Emission Change, 1990-2000
For sustainability, positive and negative drivers have to be in balance
Each country has different set and always changing carbon drivers
Data from World Bank
Climate Policy
CO2 Emiss. = (Pop) (GDP/Pers) (Energy/GDP) (CO2/Energy)
Climate/Carbon
Policy
Envir.;“Green”
Policy
=
Energy
Policy
Economic
Policy
Population
Policy
+
+
+
“Climate policy” is the combined outcome of policies for Population,
Economy, Energy and Environment
Analysis Framework III:
Sensory-Motor Loop
Human activities exert pressures, e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment.
The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations in a feedback loop
Assessment turns information into
actionable knowledge for decisions
Monitoring collects multisensory Earth Observations
Monitoring
(Sensing)
Set Goals
Assessment
Compare to Goals, Plan Reductions
Track Progress
Controls
(Motor-Actions)
All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence.
Monitoring, Assessment and Controls are the necessary steps for sustainable development.
International Collaboration Opportunity:
Global Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)
Internet-based data sharing infrastructure for Earth Observations
Voluntary International Program, 80+ countries, ministerial level
China is one of four Co-Chairs of GEOSS
Any Dataset
Serves Many
Communities
Any Problem
Requires Many
Datasets
Conclusion
Lack of understanding is key impediment to progress in
Climate Change and its Mitigation.
Opportunities for Collaboration
• Pooling of intellectual resources on Climate Change
• Integrated Population, Economic, Energy Systems Analysis
• Collaboration in Earth System monitoring & assessment
• Global Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)