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Outlook for the World Economy
Forest Governance and Trade
Chatham House
Wednesday 24th January, 2007
Catherine Barber, FCO
Drivers of Change
Trade and finance
Technology
Migration & demography
ITALY
LIBYA
Growth predictions
GDP, major world economies, US$bn, 2005-2020
20,000
18,000
16,000
US
EU25
China
India
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2005
2020
Trade and finance
Trade is growing...
… as are imbalances
Current accounts, $bn
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
United States
Japan
C hina
Other emerging/developing
Top 10 oil exporters
Other advanced
2000
2003
2006
Natural resources
Emerging markets are driving commodity price rises...
… and also rising
emissions of
greenhouse gases
Practical implications
The case of China & Africa
• 27% of Africa's exports go to Asia (10% to China)
• Chinese FDI in Africa is growing - and diversifying
• Beijing is committed to
furthering trade, aid and
investment in Africa