Transcript Power Point presentation

Agrofuels in
Mozambique –
an overview
David Fig
[email protected]
Presentation to TNI-CREPE-UNAC
conference, Maputo,
29 Aug-3 Sept 2009
1
Issues covered
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Timelines in the uptake
Why Mozambique? The drivers
Feedstocks
Some case studies
Some tentative observations
and questions
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Timeline
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1962-75
1975
1977-92
1994
1997+
2006
2007-08
2009
Liberation war
Independence [25 June]
Civil war
First multiparty elections
Gradual economic recovery (over 6%
growth 2008)
Investments in agrofuels begin
Government commissions study
Policy on agrofuels published [March]
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Why Mozambique?
Some of the drivers:
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Transition to a capitalist economy
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Donor control
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Land distribution
 Availability of water
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Government promotion
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The “Green Revolution”
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Role of Brazil
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Interest of investors
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Transition to a capitalist
economy
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With the end of the civil war (1977-92), reconstruction took place as part
of a neo-liberal capitalist project
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The IMF and the World Bank forced Mozambique to undergo structural
adjustment from 1987
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Denationalisation of hundreds of state firms took place
However Mozambique’s entrepreneurial class is very limited
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Foreign investment began to be encouraged, with weaker local
participation
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Donor control
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Donor governments provide over 40% of the
national budget
They therefore shape economic planning and
projects
Donor finance was involved in the assessment of
agrofuels, as well as studies on sustainability
Donor sources include the EU and Brazil which
have interests in the outcomes of Mozambique
adopting agrofuels
The EU directive to replace fossil fuels for
transport with 10% renewables by 2020 in is
creating a market for Mozambican agrofuels
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All land is state owned and land
use is determined by government.
Land allocated to communities has
not been demarcated.
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Requests for large land use by
investors have to be located with
provincial governors or (if >10k ha)
national cabinet
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There is a strong perception
among investors that land is
‘empty’, available, in profusion
The land
question
The Minister of Energy claims there
are 36m ha of arable land, of which only 9%
is in use (3.34m ha); 41.2m ha are
considered marginal and are not in use.
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Land acquisition has to include
community permission, but
community interests are often
overlooked and remain
unprotected
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Studies are assessing land zoning
and appropriate land use
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Availability of water
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Mozambique is also perceived as
being rich in water resources
3.3m ha of arable lands have irrigation
potential (= double the amount
currently irrigated)
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However there have been
problems with some irrigation
schemes
Investors in agrofuels are finding
that the southern provinces are
more arid and drought-prone than
they anticipated
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Government promotion
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Industrialisation in Mozambique
occurs in enclaves, as “grand
projects”
Infrastructure is weak, and investors
have to consider the provision of
most services
Government has given
encouragement to large-scale highinput agriculture (tobacco, cotton,
sugar, other agrofuels)
CEPAGRI is the government agency
especially promoting large-scale
commercial agriculture
Policy document, May 2009
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The “Green Revolution”
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Government is using the
language of the “Green
Revolution”, encouraging the
industrial model of agriculture,
seen as modernising
production
Independent small producers
become wage workers or
outgrowers, dependent on
corporations for seeds,
livelihoods, income, extension
and finance
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Role of Brazil
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Pres. Lula signed an agreement with the
Mozambican president in Sept 2007 to
promote agrofuels in Mozambique
Brazil is providing know-how and academic
exchanges
Lula claims agrofuels will strengthen AfroLatin alliances, help fight global warming,
increase jobs, assist farmers in semi-arid
areas, reduce urban migration
Lula claims there is no contest with food
because only 2% of arable areas are being
used for agrofuels
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Interest of investors
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Peak oil phenomenon means that prices for
fossil oil on world markets are likely to rise
Interest rates in Mozambique are high
Climate consciousness has driven up the
demand for ‘renewable’ fuels
Uncertain sugar market creates high
expectations for ethanol
Difficulty of finding arable land in EU and
other parts of Southern Africa
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Feedstocks for Mozambican
agrofuels
Sugar cane (saccharum spp.)
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Most extensive agrofuel in Moz.
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Large areas viewed as available (2,34m
ha = 3% of country, according to Watson
2008)
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Huge expansion suggested
(enough ethanol to replace 30% of petrol
consumed in SADC by 2020)
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Some foreign investment (SA)
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Provinces: Gaza
Jatropha (jatropha curcas L)
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Banned in S Africa as an ‘alien
invasive species’
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Produces agrodiesel
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Is toxic for humans and animals
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Some larger plantations established
with external finance (British,
German, SADC)
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Some projects are community based
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Some commercial projects have
already ceased to operate
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Not viable on marginal land
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Provinces: Maputo, Gaza,
Inhambane, Manica
Sweet sorghum (sorghum bicolor L
Moench)
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Yield increasing in same land area
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More drought tolerant than sugar
cane, high potential for semi-arid
areas
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Can complement ethanol
production since it has a longer
production cycle than sugar cane
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Non-sugar part of crop can feed
livestock, grain is a staple food,
thus provides rather than
competing with food
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Province: Cabo Delgado
Copra (cocos nucifera)
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Copra is the flesh of the coconut.
Coconut palms thrive in humid
sunny conditions on sandy soil
and are highly tolerant of salinity
Copra produces an oil high in
saturated fats and results in
agrodiesel
Province: Inhambane, with
processing at Matola, Maputo
prov. (plant capable of producing
40m litres/year)
Some case studies:
the case of ProCana
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Registered in British Virgin Islands
Sugar cane in Massingir District of
Gaza prov.
Problems with water supply affecting
operations
Encroachment on community lands
allocated to people removed from
Limpopo National Park
Community lands not designated or
registered in Mozambique
Communities have little representation,
being assisted by NGOs and UNAC,
discontented with the situation
case of
Sekab
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Registered in Sweden, owned by
municipalities, ex Tanzania
Sweet sorghum in the northernmost prov. of Cabo Delgado
Seen as transitional prior to
investment in 2nd generation
fuels
Regarded as being responsive to
sustainability and social issues
case of
Principle Energy
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Registered in Britain, big investment by
Principle Capital
20000 ha of irrigated sugar cane for
ethanol in Dombe, Gaza prov.
May 2009, announced construction of
ethanol plant worth $290m aimed at
producing 212m l/y by 2013, of which
$70m had been raised by 2007
JA reports that the project is in trouble,
with employees not receiving pay
Some tentative
observations & questions
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Notion of ‘empty’ arable land needs to
be explored
Energy poverty and energy security in
Mozambique – not yet clear whether
agrofuels can make a contribution
Largely operates as an extractive
industry – does the idea of a ‘resource
curse’ apply?
Does monocrop enclave commercial
agriculture provide an appropriate model
of development?
Is there any kind of climate dividend?
Can agrofuels ever be sustainable?