Transcript Programme RURALSTRUC Program

Programme
RURALSTRUC
Program
Atelier de fin de phase 2
End of phase 2 Workshop
Gorée
16-20 June 2008
Introduction to the workshop
How has the international debate changed
since we started RuralStruc in 2005-06?
 Challenge and opportunities for
RuralStruc?
 What is at stake with phase 2?
 What is at stake with this workshop in
Gorée?

1 – Changes in the international debate

In 2005:



the WTO debate was a core issue: the impact of trade
liberalization was in the launching rationale of RuralStruc
The MDGs were “still alive”: halve hunger and poverty by
2015…
One of the main objectives of the program was to
put structural issues in the global picture => the
“iceberg image”



Understand the consequences of the global restructuring of
the agro-food markets on agriculture and rural economies
Rearticulate the evolution within agriculture with the global
processes of economic transition in developing countries
Fill the knowledge gap on the concrete situation of the rural
economies
=> “a better understanding for better policy making”
1 – Changes in the international debate

Since then:





The WTO debate has faded: the potential gains of the
Doha round have been downgraded
The negotiations are on hold since the failure of the Hong
Kong ministerial (Dec. 05), despite other attempts
(Geneva July 06 and again next July)
The world faces a frenzy of FTAs
Climate change is an increasing concern: Stern Report
(2006) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) report (2007): variability, long-term drying trends,
reduction in cultivable land and reduction in the length of
the growing season
The fragility of the international growth model: growing
demand and growing scarcity of resources => boom of raw
material prices
1 – Changes in the international debate

Since the last 6 months:


The WDR08 and the new debate on
agriculture…
… swept away by the food price crisis (started
in Jan. 08)
=> What are the main explanations?
 On the supply side:



weather-related production shortfalls (short
term)
stock levels (increased instability)
increasing fuel costs impact on fertilizers and
transportation (long term)
1 – Changes in the international debate

On the demand side:



bio-fuels: mainly maize based ethanol and
domino effects on other cereals via
substitution for feeding stuffs (long term?)
interventions of financial markets on
agricultural commodities (short term?)
the evolving diet of emerging countries: the
wrong issue (long term but not directly
related)
1 – Changes in the international debate

A wrong diagnosis:



Food shortage related to insufficient world
production
When the core issue is access to food: for poor
consumers => developing countries
Wrong answers:


Priority given to food production supply: big
donors monies => productivity, irrigation
schemes, fertilizer and seeds packages…
Inadequate fiscal and trade policies: removal
of import and indirect taxes on food imports,
taxation and quotas on food exports…
2. The missing debate

A focus on food production instead of a focus on
activities, income and structural change



What is the role of agriculture in GDP, trade, and
employment?
What are the consequences of the restructuring of the
food system and the reinvestment in food production
(and how?) on farm and rural incomes?
What are the processes of concentration and
marginalization and the exit options?
Lack of strategies and policies to accompany
structural change :
=> What is at stake? What are the needs? What is
the absorption capacity of the economy? What
are the economic alternatives?

Population Dynamic (1)
Population change
2010-2050
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Millions
%
Eastern Asia
670
987
1 344
1 563
1 663
1 591
29
2
Latin America and
the Caribbean
168
288
444
594
713
769
176
30
53
86
144
206
268
310
104
50
511
777
1 243
1 777
2 246
2 536
759
43
178
287
441
594
711
767
172
29
180
293
519
867
1 308
1 761
894
103
51
88
154
232
312
372
140
60
Northern Africa
South-Central Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Western Asia
Population Dynamic (2)
1960
1990
2010
2050
Variation
2010-2050
Variation
2010-2050
Kenya
8,1
23,4
40,6
84,8
44,1
109%
Madagascar
5,4
12,0
21,3
44,5
23,2
109%
Mali
4,0
7,7
13,5
34,2
20,7
153%
Mexico
37,9
84,0
110,3
132,3
22,0
20%
Morocco
11,6
24,8
32,4
42,6
10,2
32%
Nicaragua
1,8
4,2
5,9
7,0
1,1
18%
Senegal
3,3
7,9
13,3
25,3
11,9
90%
Activity Ratio (1)
2,6
Eastern Asia
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Northern Africa
2,4
2,2
South-Central Asia
South-Eastern Asia
2
Sub-Saharan Africa
Western Asia
1,8
1,6
1,4
Structural
Ajustement
1,2
1
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Activity Ratio (2)
2,2
2
1,8
Kenya
Madagascar
Mali
Mexico
Morocco
Nicaragua
Senegal
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
0,8
Additional Labor Supply
Country
Additional labor
supply in 2005
Peak of annual
additional labor supply
Peak time
Kenya
558,800
930,600
2030
Madagascar
286,200
473,400
2035
Mali
171,800
447,800
2045
Mexico
922,600
1,368,600
2000
Morocco
377,800
413,600
2000
Nicaragua
69,000
81,000
2010
Senegal
179,800
268,200
2025
Labor surplus and job creation gap
Date or Time
period
Formal job
creation
(annual
average)
Additional
labor supply
(annual
average)
Formal job
creation /
additional labor
demand (%)
Projected
formal job
deficit after 5
years (stock)
Kenya
2004
36,400
558,800
7%
2,612,000
Madagascar
2007
42,000
251,600
17%
1,048,000
Mali
1999
39,500
201,600
20%
810,500
Morocco
1994-2003
217,000
377,800
57%
804,000
Nicaragua
2000-2005
32,000
74,400
43%
212,000
Senegal
2000-2006
20,000
179,800
11%
799,000
Change in the EAP (1961-2005)
100,00
Ag.EAP/Total EAP 2005
90,00
BFA
80,00
70,00
60,00
SSA
RWA
BDI
NER
GNBGIN
MWI
MOZ
ETH
TZA
MLI
SYC UGA
KEN
SEN MDG
AGO
SOMGNQ
ZMB
CHINA LBR
GHA
INDIA
Other DCs
TCD
CAF
STP
ZAR
ZWE
SLE
TGO
SDN
CMR
50,00
MRT
BEN
INDO
40,00
LSO
CIV
BWA
NAM
COG
30,00
SWZ
20,00
GAB
NGA
MEX
CPV
MYS
BRAZ
10,00
MUS
0,00
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
% change 61-05
60,00
70,00
80,00
A snapshot on Economic Transition
1960-2004
Thailand
Indonesia
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
% of GDP
50
40
60
50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
19601964
19651969
19701974
19751979
19801984
19851989
19901994
19951999
19601964
20002004
19651969
19701974
19751979
Agriculture
Agriculture
Industry
19801984
19851989
19901994
19951999
20002004
Year
Year
Industry
Services
Services
Madagascar
Senegal
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
% of GDP
% of GDP
% of GDP
70
60
50
40
50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
19601964
19651969
19701974
19751979
19801984
19851989
19901994
19951999
20002004
19601964
19651969
19701974
19751979
Industry
19851989
19901994
Year
Year
Agriculture
19801984
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Services
19951999
20002004
3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?


We are reinvesting structural issues: what are the
processes of structural change at stake within the
rural economies? What is the role of agriculture
today?
Based on 3 main hypotheses?

restructuring of agro-food markets and processes of
differentiation and segmentation

Marginalization trends and risks of transitional deadends (relative scarcity of alternative activities and
sources of employment)

Agricultural households adaptation and new composite
strategies of activities and income (reshaping of rural
economies)
3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?

We consider that economic transition
paths are not given:


Historic transitions are a reference but they
cannot be reproduced in the same way
Agriculture-based countries today face an
original challenge of transition:



Simultaneous demographic and economic
transitions
huge productivity and competitiveness gaps
No possible comparison with “European”
transitions and with “Emerging countries”
transitions => world has changed
3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?

We try to provide a new picture on rural
economies based on:



Comparative approach
Similar questioning and data collection
processes in seven countries
In a context where the lack of adequate
information is critical:


International/national information systems are
obsolete: focus on production and production
factors
Structural change is badly informed: example of
the WDR => case studies or poor international
databases?
3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?

cf. the RIGA exercise
Activities) => LSMS
(Rural Income Generating
3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?

cf. the RIGA exercise
3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?

Phase 2 process is critical:



a broad range of activities: field surveys,
synthesis of existing documentation (continuing
phase 1 exercise), regional and national reports,
general synthesis
Under time constraint
However, this is also a huge opportunity to:



Provide new information on 7 countries and 25
regions (with data on about 9,000 HH)
With a renewed approach on agricultural and
rural economies
Feed the debate and the policy making process
4. Objectives of the workshop
Review the rationale and the objectives
 Review the different steps in the
preparation of the national syntheses
 Discuss the state of play in each country
 Deal with difficulties
 Discuss the road ahead: dissemination of
results, national and international debates

5. Program of the workshop
Day 1: general introduction / deadlines
and state of play
 Day 2: data analysis and 1st discussion on
differentiation processes / discussion on
H1 and H3
 Day 3 [am]: debate on vulnerability
/fragility indicators
 Day 4: vulnerability and differentiation /
discussion on H2 => how to contribute
 Day 5: dissemination and next steps /
conclusion

State of play
and development of phase II
Gorée, Senegal - June, 2008
Deadlines and countdown

Initial deadlines:


6 months after signature
Workshop mid-April => end of May => midJune
Today’ s deadline: draft report mid-July
 Justified by:






End of the program: end of February 09
Peer review process: internal and external
reviews => draft final report mid-November
Advisory Committee mid-September
Steering Committee early September
note for review to be sent on August 30
Guidelines for the national
reports of phase II
Part 1: Methodology

Chapter 1: Justification of the selected regions
and the selected chains

Chapter 2: Presentation of the field work and
the collected information
Part 2: Results : what are the
differentiation processes at stake? (1/2)

Chapter 1: Main characteristics of the selected
agricultural chains

Chapter 2: Main characteristics of the selected
regions

Chapter 3: Existing processes of differentiation
among rural households


A/ Differentiation with respect to market access and
restructuring of agricultural chains [H1]
B/ Differentiation with respect to the diversification of
activities and income sources [H3]
Part 2: Results : what are the
differentiation processes at stake? (2/2)

Chapter 4: Insights on households’
vulnerability and prospects for agriculture in
the selected regions


perspectives of evolution of agriculture in the
surveyed regions
discussion based on the analysis of the differentiation
processes and on the identification of vulnerability (or
weakness / fragility) levels
Part 3: Operational conclusions and
policy recommendations

With the objective of feeding the policy
debate, this part will focus on:

Existing challenges of agriculture

Significance for the global national economy
and the society as a whole

Main bottlenecks which need actions in terms
of public policies
State of play
at the country level
Presentation by each country team
+/- 10 minutes
 Implementation of phase 2and
development
 Stage reached so far:





In data analysis (HH and chains)
In drafting the regional reports
In preparing the national synthesis
Main difficulties and issues to be discussed