Transcript Sharon D. Panek - APDU: The Association of Public Data Users

GDP-by-Metropolitan Area
Statistics
Accelerated Release of Data for 2008
Sharon D. Panek
Association of Public Data Users
Online
December 10, 2009
www.bea.gov
BEA Introduced Accelerated Statistics of
GDP by Metropolitan Area
▪ Accelerated release of statistics by one year
▪ MSAs represent 90 percent of U.S. GDP
▪ Reflects BEA’s commitment to make accounts
more responsive, timely, relevant and accurate
▪ Measures final goods and services and is
consistent with BEA’s national and regional
accounts
www.bea.gov
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Overview of Methodology
▪ Simple and transparent
▪ Relies heavily on industry earnings data
which represent 64 percent of GDP
▪ Fully integrated with other statistics
prepared by BEA
www.bea.gov
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Estimation Formula
▪ Equation for statistics:
 GDPi , st , yr

 
 Earningsi ,co , yr 


co 1  Earnings i , st , yr

N
GDPi ,msa, yr
N  number of countiesin MSA
▪ Sum of gross county product controlled to
GDP-by-state statistics
▪ Chained-dollar GDP by metropolitan area
computed with national deflators
www.bea.gov
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Acceleration Formula
▪ Equation for accelerated statistics:
GDPi,ms a,yr

Earningsi,co,yr 

   GDPi,co,yr 1 

Earningsi,co,yr 1 
co 1
N
N  number of countiesin MSA
▪ Sum of gross county product controlled to
GDP-by-state statistics
www.bea.gov
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Evaluation Tools
▪ Internal sources




GDP by state
Earnings by place of work
Personal income by place of residence
Location quotients
▪ External sources
 Standard & Poor’s CompuStat Database
 Global Insight and Moody’s Economy.com
 Numerous industry and local government
websites
www.bea.gov
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www.bea.gov
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Economy.Com GMP Compared to BEA GDP by Metropolitan
Area, 2007
$1,300B
$1,200B
$1,100B
$1,000B
New York-Northern New
Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJPA
Difference: $77.5 billion
$900B
Economy.com
$800B
$700B
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown,
TX
Difference: $53.0 billion
$600B
$500B
$400B
San Francisco-OaklandFremont, CA
Difference: $35.0 billion
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-INWI
Difference: $41.2 Billion
$300B
$200B
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Difference: $43.7 billion
$100B
$0B
$0B
$100B
$200B
$300B
$400B
$500B
$600B $700B
BEA
$800B
$900B $1,000B $1,100B $1,200B $1,300B
Source: September 2008 Moody’s Economy.com data release.
Note: The 45 degree reference line indicates where points would be located if Economy.com GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area were equal.
Values are shown in millions of current dollars.
www.bea.gov
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Global Insight’s GMP Compared to BEA GDP by Metropolitan
Area, 2007
$1,300B
$1,200B
$1,100B
$1,000B
IHS Global Insight
$900B
$800B
$700B
$600B
$500B
$400B
$300B
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet,
IL-IN-WI
Difference: $4.6 billion
Miami-Fort LauderdalePompano Beach, FL
Difference: $7.5 billion
San Jose-SunnyvaleSanta Clara, CA
Difference: $5.5 billion
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale,
AZ
Difference: $5.0 billion
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord,
NC-SC
Difference: $7.7 billion
$200B
$100B
$0B
$0B
$100B
$200B
$300B
$400B
$500B
$600B $700B
BEA
$800B
$900B $1,000B $1,100B $1,200B $1,300B
Source: “GMP The Engine of America’s Growth,” January 2007. Prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors by Global Insight.
Note: The 45 degree reference line indicates where points would be located if Global Insight GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area were equal.
Values are shown in billions of current dollars.
www.bea.gov
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Metropolitan Areas in Perspective
▪ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island MSA ranked 2nd among states and
12th among countries1
▪ Current-dollar GDP for the Nation was
$14.2 trillion; it was $1.8 trillion for
California, the largest state
1
World Development Indicators database, World Bank, August 24, 2009.
www.bea.gov
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Common Discussion Topics
▪ Size of the local economy
▪ Comparisons to other metropolitan areas,
states, or the Nation
▪ Growth (or decline in the local economy)
▪ Industries driving a metropolitan area’s
growth or decline
▪ The impact of natural disasters on a
metropolitan economy
www.bea.gov
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Ten Largest Metropolitan Areas, 2008
(Ranked by GDP by Metropolitan Area, Earnings, and Personal Income)
Rank1
Metropolitan Area
GDP
Earnings
Personal
Income
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
1
1
1
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
2
2
2
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI
3
3
3
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
4
4
4
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
5
6
7
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
6
5
5
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
7
8
6
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
8
7
9
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
9
9
8
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
10
10
11
Source: August 2009 accelerated metropolitan area personal income release which is reported for 2008 OMB metropolitan statistical
area definitions.
1
Rank for each series is based on current-dollar statistics.
www.bea.gov
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www.bea.gov
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www.bea.gov
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Challenges
▪ Data sources for GDP-by-state may not be
available for MSAs
▪ Correlation of earnings and output may not
be strong for some capital-intensive
industries
▪ State relationship of GDP to earnings may
not apply to all MSAs
▪ Earnings data are not available for years
prior to 2001
www.bea.gov
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GDP by Metropolitan Area: Future Work
▪ Monitor accuracy of GDP-bymetropolitan-area statistics
▪ Further research to refine statistics, if
appropriate and feasible
www.bea.gov
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Contact Information
Sharon D. Panek, Chief
GDP by State Services Section
Regional Product Division
[email protected]
(202) 606-9228 (phone)
(202) 606-5321 (fax)
www.bea.gov
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