Transcript Global Generics Marketplace Seminar

Global Generics Marketplace
Dr. Brian W Tempest
www.briantempest.com
[email protected]
UK
18,19,20 March 2014
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1. Global Healthcare
2. Big Pharma
3.Global Generic Marketplace
4.Global Generic Companies
5.Indian Generic Marketplace
6.Indian Generic Companies
7. Country Generic Markets
8. Biosimilars
9. Generic Distribution
10. Over The Counter Consumer Medines
11. Contract Manufacturers
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Global Healthcare & Big Pharma
Chesapeake
Dr. Brian W Tempest
www.briantempest.com
[email protected]
UK
March 2014
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1. Global Healthcare
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There are only a few certain things
Source: T Stevenson, Fidelity Worldwide Investment Director, S Telegraph April 21 2013
•Populations growth
•Ageing
•Expansion of the World’s Middle Classes
•Increasing demand for healthcare is as
close to given as investors can hope for
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Rise of the Middle Classes
source: Frost & Sullivan
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Aging in OECD
source: EGA
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Global Healthcare Growth by Region
Source: Sunday Telegraph April 21 2013
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Healthcare costs versus GDP & Wages
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Public Health as % of GDP
Source: UNDP 15 October 2012
Cuba
USA
France
UK
9.7%
9.5%
9.3%
8.1%
Brazil
RSA
Russia
China
India
4.2%
3.9%
3.2%
2.7%
1.2%
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Military vs Health
source: FT 24February 2014
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Public Health Reform Everywhere
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OECD Healthcare Expenditure Growth
source: Annalisa Belloni OECD at EGA Conference 13 June 2013
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Everybody Concerned about Health Costs
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Healthcare as % of Government Spend
source: WHO, Jefferies
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Public & Private Healthcare as % of GDP
source: WHO, India is <4%
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How Easy to Start a Business in EMs
source: Mint 13 October 2013
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Number of Companies with Active R&D
Pipelines
source: Citeline Pharma R&D Annual Review 2013
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Worldwide R&D Spend
source: Evaluate Pharma 23 June 2013
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R&D Spending by Country
source: Economist March 22 2014
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Rise of Asia R&D
source: Economist March 22 2014
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Emerging Markets Pharma Markets, $b
Source: Citi Research August 2013
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Value of EM Bourses - limited availability
source: January 18 2014 Economist
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OECD vs. BRICS
source: FT 9 October 2013
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Emerging Markets
source: Business India December 8 2013
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The Need for Universal Healthcare
source: ET 2 Aug 2013
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Healthcare will explode further in Asia
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Asian Healthcare Expenditure $b
source: EIU for countries PRC, HK, I, Ind, M, P, Si, SK, Tw , Th, V
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Pharmaceutical Imports into USA
source: Chemistry World July 2012
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Cipla - Washington Post Ad
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Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) for Hepatitis C
Source: Pharmatimes February 7 2014
•In USA Gilead Sciences charges Sovaldi at $1000 a day
for a 12 week course -$84,000
•The cost of manufacture of the same 12 week course is
$68 to $136 according to MSF generating a gross profit
over 99%
•In India and other emerging markets Gilead plans to
charge $2,000 for a 24 week course leading to a gross
profit of 86%
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Evolving Emerging Markets IP Policy
Source: Leaky Pharma 27 Jan 2014
•“This is genocide, This can sentence South Africans to
death” – RSA Health Minister (Motsoaldi)
•1998 Big Pharma, Merck vs Mandela, PR disaster
•Enhanced Therapeutic Efficacy vs Incremental Efficacy
•2014 Merck, PhRMA, Lobbyist PAE vs RSA IP policy
•OECD growth +1-4% vs Emerging Markets at +10-13%
•WHO Executive Board – “we cannot be sidetracked
from our course of action of defending public health and
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the right to life” (DG Precious Matsoso)
Davos 2014 -Ten Global Risks of Highest
Concern
source: Davos 2014
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Aid by Country
source: Economist 12 April 2014
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2. Big Pharma
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Big Pharma Business Model Broken
source: Pharmatimes World News April 2012
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Pharma in Crisis
Source: Pharmatimes February 2013
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A Slide from a UK Headhunter
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Top 10 Marketing Settlements
Source: Fiercepharma 26 June 2012
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GSK $3b 2012
Pfizer $2.3b 2009
J&J $2.2b 2012
Abbott 1.6b 2012
Lilly $1.4b 2009
Merck $1.0b 2011
Serono $0.7b 2005
Perdue $0.7b 2007
Allergan $0.6b 2010
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A Pfizer Decade of Bribery
source: FT August 7 2012
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The Biggest Healthcare Fraud in History
Source: Daily Mail 3 July 2012
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China Bribery Investigations
source: Jefferies November 2013
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Emerging Markets are Not so Easy
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Will Big Pharma Change?
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Or be like Popeye the sailor man
“I Yam what I Yam what I Yam”
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The Strategic Changes by Big Pharma
Source: FT December 5 2012, Franz Humer, Roche Chairman
•Possible to cut 30-50% off development costs via CT efficiencies
•Shift from product focus to patient focus using diagnostic tools
• In Europe there isn’t one Government or politician interested in the
health of the Industry
•USA & Latin American countries open to rewarding innovation
•Industry has to change fundamentally how it manages costs
•Leaner headquarters & smaller central functions
•Division of the industry into 2 parts
• A Innovative businesses able to charge a premium price
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• B Large scale manufacturers who can compete on cost
Divestment & Spin Off Strategies
Source: IPA 2013
•Novartis - Blood Diagnostics, Animal Health, OTC,
Vaccines
•Bayer - Bayer Material Sciences likely
•Abbott - Abbvie (pharma assets)
•Pfizer - Nutrition, Zoetis Animal Health
•Merck - separate growth businesses from value
businesses, Consumer OTC
•GSK - tail products to Aspen, drinks brands
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•J&J - Diagnostics
2013 The Year of 8 Blockbusters
source: Evaluate March 2014
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2013 the 8 Blockbusters
source: Evaluate March 2014
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Big Pharma Top 10 by 2012 Sales
Source: FiercePharma 29 November 2013
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Top 10 Medtech Companies
source: Evaluate Pharma, 23 September 2013
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Pharma & Medtech Global Markets
source: Evaluate 23 September 2013
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Global Pharma Sales
source: Evaluate April 2014
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Sales at Risk
source: Evaluate April 2014
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Global Pharma sales lost & sales gained
source: Evaluate March 2014
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Biggest Expected Launches of 2014
source: EvaluatePharma
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Strength of Local Companies
source: IMS May 2012
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Big Pharma Top Risers & Fallers in 2013
source: Evaluate March 2014
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2013 a healthy year for Pharma
source: Evaluate March 2014
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Thank You
[email protected]
www.briantempest.com
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