Transcript スライド 1 - くらし学際研究所

Review on the East Asian Economies of
10 Years after Asian Monetary Crisis
くらし学際研究所
13/10/2009
Nobuyoshi Nishizawa
Professor of Kinki University
Contents
1 Lessons from Asian Monetary Crisis
(AMC)
2 Movement of regional integration in East
Asia
3 Changing economic power map of East
Asia
4 Sustainability economic development in
East Asia
Conclusion
1 Lessons from Asian Monetary
Crisis (AMC)
• What are problems?
Foreseen, possible or not
Serious economic depression
No technical progress
(1) Inconsistent triangle
Stability of foreign
exchange
Independence
of monetary
policy
Freedom of
capital movement
(2) Market fundamentalism
• Thailand accepted the conditionality of
IMF in exchange for accommodating a
loan.
• However, there is a possibility that the tight
policy strictly in line with market principles
that was taken to redress the current and
fiscal imbalance might get the economy
into serious slump.
(3)Krugman’s Criticism→Innovation
Total factor
productivity analysis
Rate of
economic
growth
△Y/Y
△Y/Y=△A/A+α△K/K+β△L/L
α+β＝１
A
Technical
progress
K
Capital
L
Labor
2 Regional integration in East Asia
• Disappointed with the US
and APEC
• Japan provided lots of
ODA through Miyazawa
Plan.
• China didn’t devalue the
Yuan.
• movement of regional
integration in East Asia
• ASEAN +3 Summit was
regularized
ENLARGEMENT OF
INTEGRATED AREA
EAST ASIA
ASEAN
ASEAN
(1) Progress in economic
cooperation
• to prevent the
reoccurrence of
monetary crisis
Image of Chianmai initiative
Korea
21
8
• Chianmai Initiative
was started in 2000
China
6
Japan
10
• Funding scale→
US$120Billion
6.5
23.5
ASEAN
Unit: billion
2
(2) Accelerated integration of
ASEAN
Step 1
ASEAN
1967
Step 2
AFTA
1993
Step 3
Step 4
ASEAN10
1999
ASEAN
COMMUNITY
2015
(3) East Asian Community (EAC)
• The report titled “Towards an East Asian
Community” was submitted by the EAVG.
• The EAC was set as a long-term target at the
ASEAN+3 Summit held in KL in 2005.
• There are many fields such as economy, politics,
environment, disaster and infectious disease
that countries in East Asia should cooperate
each other.
(4) Integration in fact
• The close network of
production in East Asia
has already been formed
with the active FDIs by
the companies of both
Japan and NIEs.
• The rate of regional trade
within East Asia has
reached 54.2% without
institutional framework
that is larger than that of
NAFTA and somewhat
smaller than that of EU.
Regional
trade
（2003）
EAST
ASIA
(%)
Outregional
trade
(%)
54.2
45.8
EU15
60.3
39.7
NAFTA
44.9
55.1
3 Changing economic power map
of East Asia
1 rapidly growing China
2 newly emerging India
3 ASEAN10 developed
into one big economic
sphere
4 declining economic
power of Japan
CHINA
INDIA
JAPAN
A
S
ASEAN
E
A
N
Basic indicators of ASEAN+3
Population Nominal
GNI
(bil.)
(mil.)
Real GDP
(bil.)
PER
CAPITA
(2000=base)
Real
value of
trade(bil.)
(2000=base)
China
1318
3229
2387
1811
1971
India
1124
1171
771
684
352
ASEAN
563
1227
848
6495
999
Japan
127
4530
5206 38096
1307
(1) China leading Asian economies
• China embarked on drastic economic reforms in 1978.
• It grew at annual average rate of 9.8% for nearly 30
years from 1979 to 2008.
• A big factory of the world to an enormous market of the
world.
• Foreign reserves of more than US$ 2 trillion
EXPORT
China
40% of total export
The US
&
EU
Trade of China with neighboring
countries （2006）
E: export of China
Korea
E44.5
E14.5
India
M7.8
M: import of China
Unit: billion
M69.4
China
E91.6
M92.7
M
E69.1 M65.29
2
.
ASEAN
7
Japan
(2) Emerging India
• Mixed economic system from 1947 to
1980s
• New economic policy in 1991
• Robust service sector
• High rate of consumption over GDP
(3) ASEAN as one economic
sphere
• The economic scale of ASEAN10 is almost
close to India.
• Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam
(CLMV) are transforming their economies
to market economy.
• GMS Program is launched by ADB.
• Japanese government is paying much
attention on the economic development of
Mekong region.
(４) Declining economic power of
Japan

Period of low economic growth rates since
1991, experiencing long serious economic
sump.
 The share of Japanese GDP over world total
reduced from 18% in 1995 to 8% in 2008.
 The ranking of nominal GDP among OECD
fell from 3rd in 2000 to 19th in 2007.
 According to the IMF outlook, the GDP of
Japan may be exceeded next year by that of
China.
Advance of Japanese companies
to abroad
• From the survey of Japan Bank for
International Cooperation (2007)
• The rate of overseas production increased
from 12% in 1988 to 30% in 2006.
• The Japanese companies mainly
proceeded to NIEs, ASEAN, China, US
and EU.
Voting for promising countries
2003
(%)
2007
(%)
China
93
70
India
14
50
Vietnam
18
35
4 Sustainability of economic
development in East Asia
• Less dependence of East Asia on the
trade with US and EU
• Activate regional trade within East Asia
• Diversify the trade partners of outside
(1) Trade and investment
in East Asia
• Such figure is becoming clear that Japanese
companies earn profits in the growing Asia
instead of aging Japan.
• As new investing areas, Vietnam with abundant
labor and India changing into a big market in
near future are attracting much attention.
• However, there is a characteristic that the trade
of East Asia is heavily depending on the US and
EU.
Trade structure of East Asia
• The trade of East Asian has registered big trade
surplus against the US and EU, while China has
trade deficit against Japan, Korea and ASEAN.
• The trade of intermediate goods and parts
shows big deficit, while that of manufactured
goods, surplus.
• In regional trade, parts of computer and
electronics and chemicals have deficit.
• They are imported through regional trade and
assembled in China and ASEAN, then exported
as final goods to the US and EU.
Triangle trade
Japan
&
NIEs
ASSEBLING
China
&
ASEAN
EXPORT
OF PARTS
EXPORT OF
FINAL GOODS
MANUFACTURING
CONSUMING
The US
&
EU
(2) Population by Household Disposal
Income (HDI) in Asia 1990-2008
HDI
Less than 1,000
1990
(Mil.)
1,100
2008
(Mil.)
230
1,001～5,000
1,160
1,900
5,001～15,000
100
750
5,001～35,000
(middle class)
140
880
Growing middle class
• They are purchasers of
household appliances
such as washing machine,
ice box, television, air
conditioner, as well as
modern goods such as
personal computer, DVD
and mobile phone.
• They tend to spend much
money to education and
health.
Upper
Class
120 m
Middle class
880 million
Lower class
2 billion
(3) Diversify trade partners outside
East Asia
• to diversify poles such as
India, Russia, Australia,
New Zeeland together
with the US & EU to
absorb goods and
services produced in
East Asia
• To redress the worldwide
imbalance was a main
theme of G20.
Russia
INDIA
EAST ASIA
US & EU
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEELAND
Potentiality of India
• India is a country that is regarded as one of the
most promising countries.
• However, 34.7% and 79.9% of population are
living under one dollar and two dollar per day
respectively, according to World Development
Report 2007.
• The population will increase by nearly 16 million
every year in India. As a result, the population of
India will exceed that of China in around 2030.
Conclusion
• Today, the interest of the world is in how to
correct the worldwide imbalance, especially the
big deficit of the current account of the US.
• To achieve this, it will be the key both to diversify
poles to absorb goods and services produced in
East Asia, and to increase domestic demand
within Asia, focusing on raising up their standard
of living of the 2 billion poor in Asia.
• The EAC that was a by-product of the AMC has
been again highlighted because Japanese new
Premier Hatoyama recently proposed it at the
Japanese-Sino Summit in Sep. 2009.
• The EAC may be a economically significant
proposal, if it considerably contributes to the
increase in demand within East Asia and
reduction of the poor in East Asian.