Transcript M - Fiji Australia Business Council

PRESENTATION TO THE
FIJI AUSTRALIA BUSINESS COUNCIL
THE FIJI ECONOMY:
FACING THE GLOBAL CRISIS
Mr Savenaca Narube
Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji
2 December 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
OUTLINE
• GLOBAL CRISIS
• EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS &
SERVICES
• GROWTH OUTLOOK
• KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY
RESPONSES
• SUMMARY
Reserve Bank of Fiji
SNAPSHOT OF THE FIJI
ECONOMY
• Economy declined heavily in 2007
• Recovery to begin this year but low growth
• The trade deficit is widening and exerting pressure
on foreign reserves
• Inflation has risen to a 20-year high but to decline to
a moderate level in 2009
• Investment has fallen
• Unemployment is rising
• Poverty is worsening
NOW COMES THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
…..
Reserve Bank of Fiji
WORLD GDP GROWTH
%
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.1
3.9
4.0
Forecast @ Jul
Forecast @ Oct
Forecast @ Nov
3.5
3.0
3.9
3.7
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
2004
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2005
2006
2007(e)
2008(f)
2009(f)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – Nov 08
TRADING PARTNERS’ OUTLOOK
%
5
2007(e)
2008(f)
2009(f)
4.2
4
3.2
3.1
3.2
3
2.5
1.6
2
2.6
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.4
1.3
1.5
0.7
1.2
0.1
1
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.5
0
-0.2
-0.5
-0.7
-1
United States
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Australia
New Zealand
Japan
Eurozone
Source: World Economic Outlook – Oct 08 & Nov 08
EXCHANGE RATES OF SELECTED
CURRENCIES AGAINST FJD
NZD/AUD/EUR/USD
YEN
1.00
95
NZD 11%
90
0.90
AUD 16%
85
0.80
80
0.70
75
USD -14%
70
0.60
65
0.50
EURO -4%
60
0.40
YEN -26%
0.30
55
50
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
2008
J
A
S
O
REER/NEER
(Monthly Average)
Index
130
125
120
115
REER 106.23
110
105
NEER
100
103..05
95
90
JA JOJ AJO JA JOJ AJO JAJOJA JOJ AJOJA JOJ AJO JAJOJA JO JAJOJA JO
1996 1997 1998 1999
2000 2001
2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007
2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
EXPOSURE TO
TRADE IN GOODS
& SERVICES
Reserve Bank of Fiji
FIJI’S COMMODITY EXPORT*
DESTINATIONS
Pacifc Islands
7%
HK
Singapore 2%
China
1%
Others
14%
US
20%
1%
NZ
9%
Europe, incl UK
22%
Australia
18%
Japan
6%
*Refers to 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO US
Demand Will Slow Down
$M
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
24
7
5
Mineral Fresh Fish Coral & Flavoured
Water
Similar
Water
Materials
5
5
4
Sugar
Mahogany
Taro
*Represents 84% of total commodity exports to the US in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO EUROPE
Sugar Exports Unaffected
$M
180
165
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
5
2
1
Fresh Fish
Ginger
Coconut Oil
0
Sugar
*Represents 83% of total commodity exports to the UK, Germany, France & Italy in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO JAPAN
Demand Will Slow Down
$M
30
27
25
20
17
15
10
6
5
0
Woodchips
Fresh Fish
Sugar
*Represents 88% of total commodity exports to Japan in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO AUS
Garments May Be Affected
$M
90
80
80
70
60
50
40
30
17
20
10
8
5
4
3
Textiles
Taro
Uncooked
Pasta
Gold
0
Garments
Sweet
Biscuits
*Represents 73% of total commodity exports to Australia in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO NZ
Demand Will Slow Down
$M
16
14
14
12
11
10
8
6
6
4
3
3
3
2
0
Taro
Garments
Uncooked Lead Waste Fresh Fish
Pasta
and Scrap
Molasses
*Represents 48% of total commodity exports to New Zealand in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
IMPACT ON EXPORTS
• Slowdown in exports which are demand driven
– Tourism
– Water
– Garments
• Supply driven exports – structural constraints
binding
• Slowdown in growth of total exports
Reserve Bank of Fiji
VISITOR ARRIVALS* BY COUNTRY
Pacifc Islands
6%
Others
5%
US
12%
Continental
Europe, incl UK
11%
Japan
4%
Asia
4%
NZ
19%
Australia
39%
*Refers to 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
VISITOR ARRIVALS
Growth Under Threat
‘000s
600
8%
580
Forecast
Annual
Jan to Sep
550
545
3%
600
539
503
500
11%
431
400
398
300
374
200
298
317
2002
2003
415
418
398
440
2005(p)
2006(p)
2007(p)
2008(f)
100
0
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2004(p)
2009(f)
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
VISITOR ARRIVALS - USA
Already Declining
‘000s
80
74
Jan to Sep
Annual
65
62
58
60
59
66
65
58
53
40
48
49
20
0
1999
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2001
2002
2003
2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p)
2007
2008(f)
Source: FIBOS
VISITOR ARRIVALS - EUROPE
Already Declining
‘000s
100
91
Jan to Sep
80
81
Annual
72
69
71
71
65
60
52
51
40
58
60
20
0
1999
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Source: FIBOS
VISITOR ARRIVALS - JAPAN
Already Declining
‘000s
40
38
Jan to Sep
Annual
30
30
26
23
20
20
24
24
23
20
18
10
17
0
1999
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Source: FIBOS
VISITOR ARRIVALS - NZ
Already Flat
‘000s
120
108
104
Jan to Sep
100
80
100
75
72
60
96
Annual
66
68
49
79
40
79
20
0
1999
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Source: FIBOS
VISITOR ARRIVALS - AUSTRALIA
Key Source of Growth
‘000s
207
210
198
180
Jan to Sep
181
142
150
120
176
Annual
124
118
98
90
77
145
172
2007
2008(f)
60
30
0
1999
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p)
Source: FIBOS
REMITTANCES* BY CURRENCY
CAD
2%
EUR
4%
Others
2%
AUD
21%
GBP
6%
NZD
14%
USD
51%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
*Cumulative for the period Sep-07 to Jun-08, excluding remittances received in FJD
Source: RBF
PERSONAL REMITTANCES
Already Declining
$M
350
Annual
311
315
322
297
Cumulative to August
-10%
280
256
Forecast
232
245
231
231
213
210
188
230
175
184
140
105
193
171
-22%
158
93
121
134
133
70
35
44
0
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008(f)
2009(f)
Source: RBF & Macroeconomic Committee
IMPACT ON SERVICES
• Reduce tourist arrivals
– Japan, Europe and US was already declining
– NZ tourists were also flat
– Australia was the growth industry
– Exchange rate will further dampen demand
• Remittances will decline further
Reserve Bank of Fiji
FIJI’S ORIGIN OF IMPORTS
China
3%
US
3%
UK
1%
Japan
3%
Singapore
34%
Australia
23%
Others
13%
India
2%
NZ
18%
*Refers to 2007 Total Imports = $2,890m
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
IMPORTS* FROM UNITED STATES
$M
35
32
30
25
20
15
10
5
5
4
3
0
Aeroplane Parts
Medicaments
Oil Cake and
Residue of Soya
Bean Oil
Anti-Knock
Preparations
*Represents 47% of total commodity imports from the US in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
IMPORTS* FROM JAPAN
Cement & Car Prices Will Rise
$M
10
9
8
6
4
3
3
3
Optical Fibre
Cables
Transport
Vessesls
Refuse Collectors
2
0
Cement Clinkers
*Represents 21% of total commodity imports from Japan in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
IMPORTS* FROM AUSTRALIA
Food Prices Will Drop…
$M
80
68
61
60
40
24
20
10
9
8
8
Crude
Soya
Bean Oil
Aviation
Turbine
Fuel
Brown
Rice
Cream &
Milk for
Infants
0
Wheat
Textiles
Liquefied
Butanes
*Represents 28% of total commodity imports from Australia in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
IMPORTS* FROM NEW ZEALAND
Food Prices Will Drop…
$M
15
14
13
11
9
10
9
8
7
5
0
Potatoes
Frozen Polymers
Semi Cream and Printed Corrugated
Sheep Meat
Finished Milk for Papers Paper &
with Bones
Products of Infants
Paperboard
Iron and
Non-alloy
Steel
*Represents 14% of total commodity imports from New Zealand in 2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
IMPACT ON IMPORTS
• Imports will rise
– Price of cars and auto parts will rise – demand will
drop
– Oil price in Fiji dollar will rise – will partly offset
the lower global price
– Prices of food and manufactured items will drop –
demand may be inelastic
– Cement price will rise
Reserve Bank of Fiji
TRADE BALANCE
F$M
-350
-750
-497
-594
-726
-800
-604
-700
-943
-840
-1104
-900
-1184
-1,150
-1449
-1296
-1,550
-1524
29%
-1530
-1665
-1,950
Annual
-1895
Cumulative to September
-2074
25%
-2,350
-2180
-2197
-2213
5%
1%
1%
-2,750
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2001
2002
*C.I.F
2003
2004
Accrual data excluding
2005
2006
2007 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) 2011(f)
Source: FIBOS and Macroeconomic Committee
INVESTMENT
% of GDP
35
30
25
Government
20
15
Private
10
5
0
1977
Statutory Bodies & Public Enterprises
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007(e)
Source: FIBOS
GROWTH
OUTLOOK
Reserve Bank of Fiji
GDP GROWTH: 2006-2011
Forecast @ August 2008
%
Forecast @ October 2008
4
1.7
2
2.4
1.2
1.4
1.9
1.9
1.5
2010(f)
2011(f)
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-6.6
2007(p)
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2008(f)
2009(f)
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
MAJOR DRIVERS
• Tourism
• Agriculture –fishing, forestry
• Manufacturing, except garments
• Mining – gold
• Water
MAJOR DRAG
• Community & social services – Government
expenditure (2010 & 2011)
Reserve Bank of Fiji
GROWTH IN SELECTED PACIFIC
ISLAND ECONOMIES
Growth Is Too Low
%
5
4.6
4
3.6
Average Growth 2001-2007
3
2.7
2.4
1.9
2
2.1
1.3
1
0
Fiji
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Tonga
Kiribati
PNG
Vanuatu
Sol Is
Samoa
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct & Nov 2008) & FIBOS
GROWTH IN SELECTED SMALL
ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES
Growth Is Too Low
%
10
8.2
8
Average Growth 2001-2007
7.0
6
5.4
4
3.6
2
1.3
1.6
0.3
0
Seychelles
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Fiji
Jamaica
Mauritius
Singapore
Maldives
Trinidad &
Tobago
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct & Nov 2008) & FIBOS
KEY CHALLENGES
AND POLICY MIX
Reserve Bank of Fiji
KEY CHALLENGES
• Safeguarding Fiji’s external position
• Raising exports
• Raising investment
• Raising and sustaining growth
Reserve Bank of Fiji
BUDGETARY MEASURES
• PRO GROWTH
– 3% of GDP deficit
– Support for priority sectors
 Tourism
 Agriculture
 ICT
Reserve Bank of Fiji
BUDGETARY MEASURES
•
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUPPORT
– Bio Fuel
– Import Substitution
– Fiji Diaspora
– Increase in tariffs
•
INVESTMENT
– Infrastructure development
– Incentives
Reserve Bank of Fiji
MONETARY MEASURES
• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
– Credit Ceiling
– Exchange Controls
• INVESTMENT
– Interest rates
– Special approvals
Reserve Bank of Fiji
GOVERNMENT UNDERLYING
BALANCE
Expansionary Stance
$M
% of GDP
0.0
-20
-1.0
-60
-2.0
-100
-96
-92
-3.0
-140
-146
-180
-157
-4.0
-168
-193
-220
-5.0
2004
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2005
2006
2007
2008(r) 2009(b)
Source: Ministry of Finance
GOVERNMENT REVENUE
% of GDP
$M
1,500
1,386
1,288
1,250
1,083
1,465
27
1,278
26
1,121
25
1,000
24
750
23
500
22
250
21
0
20
2004
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2005
2006
2007
2008(r)
2009(b)
Source: Ministry of Finance
GOVERNMENT OPERATING
EXPENDITURE
Too High as % of GDP
% of GDP
$M
1,400
1,334
1,232
1,200
1,203
23.0
1,214
1,080
22.0
1,024
1,000
21.0
800
600
20.0
400
19.0
200
0
18.0
2004
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2005
2006
2007
2008(r)
2009(b)
Source: Ministry of Finance
GOVERNMENT CAPITAL
EXPENDITURE
Good Increase…
$M
220
% of GDP
216
5
200
171
180
4
160
140
130
129
129
120
3
107
100
2
80
60
1
40
20
0
0
2004
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2005
2006
2007
2008(r)
2009(b)
Source: Ministry of Finance
GOVERNMENT DEBT
Deficit is Sustainable
% of GDP
60
Domestic
52
50
50
External
48
3
8
45
45
43
41
2005
2006
2007
2008(r)
7
48
48
47
46
2009(b)
2010(b)
2011(b)
7
40
30
20
10
0
Reserve Bank of Fiji
COMMERCIAL BANK’S
LENDING RATE
Declining …
%
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8%
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
J FMAMJ J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAMJ J A S O
2005
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2006
2007
2008
LENDING RATES:
FIJI & SELECTED COUNTRIES
Lowest In Region
%
15.0
New Zealand
Samoa
13.0
Australia
11.0
PNG
9.0
Fiji
7.0
5.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
2006
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2007
2008
Source: International Financial Statistics
COMMERCIAL BANKS’
INVESTMENT & CONSUMPTION
LENDING
Rising Credit
%
70
60
50
40
Consumption
30
Investment
20
17%
10
0
11%
-10
J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O
2005
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2006
2007
2008
INFLATION
Will Moderate
%
Forecast
12
10
8.5
8
7.5
6
4
2
0
-2
J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D
2006
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2007
2008
Source: FIBOS and Reserve Bank of Fiji
OFFICIAL FOREIGN RESERVES
Still Under Pressure
Months of
Imports
$M
Months of Imports (goods)
1200
1116
1097
1045
1016
1050
9
948
900
10
970
959
8
908
883
866
864
7
750
6
600
5
3.4
450
4
3
300
2
150
1
0
0
1998
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Oct-08
SUMMARY
• Weak Fundamentals
• Financial Crisis will Reduce Potential
• Four Key Challenges
• Policy Mix
• Growth is too Low
• Agenda to Lift Growth Rests on Exports
Reserve Bank of Fiji
THANK YOU
Reserve Bank of Fiji
HOW DO WE
COMPARE WITH
THE ASIAN CRISIS?
Reserve Bank of Fiji
INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST
USD: 1996-98
RUPIAH
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
Rupiah
weakened
by 130% in
1997
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST
USD: 2008
RUPIAH
11100
11000
10900
10800
10700
10600
10500
10400
10300
10200
10100
10000
9900
9800
9700
9600
9500
9400
9300
9200
9100
9000
2-Jan 28-Jan 21-Feb 18-Mar 11-Apr 7-May 2-Jun
Rupiah
weakened
by 20% so
far in 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
26-Jun 22-Jul 15-Aug 10-Sep
6-Oct
30-Oct
KOREAN WON AGAINST USD:
1996-98
WON
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
Won
weakened
by 102% in
1997
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
KOREAN WON AGAINST USD: 2008
WON
1500
Won
weakened
by 38% so
far in 2008
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
2-Jan
28-Jan 21-Feb 18-Mar 11-Apr 7-May
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2-Jun
26-Jun 22-Jul 15-Aug 10-Sep
6-Oct
30-Oct
THAI BAHT AGAINST USD: 1996-98
BAHT
60
55
50
Baht
weakened
by 82% in
1997
45
40
35
30
25
20
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
THAI BAHT AGAINST USD: 2008
BAHT
37
Baht
weakened
by 18% so
far in 2008
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
1-Jan
25-Jan 20-Feb 17-Mar 10-Apr 6-May 30-May 25-Jun 21-Jul 14-Aug
Reserve Bank of Fiji
9-Sep
3-Oct
29-Oct
SINGAPORE DOLLAR AGAINST
USD: 1996-98
SGD
1.9
1.8
1.7
Singapore
Dollar
weakened
by 20% in
1997
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
SINGAPORE DOLLAR AGAINST
USD: 2008
SGD
1.6
Singapore
Dollar
weakened
by 3% so
far in 2008
1.5
1.4
1.3
1-Jan
25-Jan 20-Feb 17-Mar 10-Apr 6-May 30-May 25-Jun 21-Jul 14-Aug
Reserve Bank of Fiji
9-Sep
3-Oct
29-Oct
MAJOR POLICY RESPONSE
• 20% DEVALUATION
• Why devaluation was necessary?
– Currencies of our major trading partners fell against the
US dollar so Fiji goods became expensive
– Competitor Asian currencies also fell drastically against
the US dollar so Fiji lost competitiveness/business
• Needed to compete on price
– Very important to make what we sold cheaper
Reserve Bank of Fiji
IMPACT ON INFLATION
%
Inflation Rose
10
Oct-98: 9.1%
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Source: FIBOS
IMPACT ON EXPORTS
Exports Growth Rebounded
%
13
14
12
11
10
8
6
6
4
2
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-7
-10
1996
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1997
1998
1999
2000
Accrual data excluding aircraft
Source: FIBOS
IMPACT ON GROWTH
%
Economy Recovered Gradually
10
8.8
8
6
4.8
4
2
1.3
0
-2
-1.6
-2.2
-4
1996
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
COMMERCIAL BANKS’ SPECIAL
LOAN APPROVALS BY PURPOSE
(As At 21/11/08)
$M
200
156
TOTAL APPROVALS - $356m
150
97
100
66
50
21
17
0
Building &
Construction
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Manufacturing Electricity, Gas
& Water
Transport,
Storage &
Communication
Others
BALANCE OF TRADE - 2007
$M
180
120
60
0
-60
-120
-180
-240
-300
-360
-420
-480
-540
-600
Trade
Deficit
119
85
-28
Trade
Surplus
-427
-500
Europe*
Reserve Bank of Fiji
US
Japan
NZ
Australia
*UK, Germany, France, Italy
Source: FIBOS
EXPORTS DRIVEN
BY SUPPLY
FACTORS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
SUGAR EXPORTS
F$M
250
Cumulative to September
237
225
23
4
Annual
226
25%
Forecast
231
224
209
215
200
-29%
185
38%
165
150
100
128
125
106
50
105
106
123
172
119
125
0
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2002
2004
2006
2008(f)
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
TIMBER EXPORTS
$M
Annual
Cumulative to September
Forecast
80
70
10%
18%
60
56
50
43
40
40
30
62
34
42
39
48
45
29%
38
31
32
20
26
27
2002
2003
30
35
32
45
25
10
0
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2001
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008(f)
2009(f)
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
FISH EXPORTS
$M
Annual
Cumulative to September
Forecast
140
15%
123
117
120
100
98
93
86
78
80
60
5%
69
79
81
101
29%
83
97
71
59
59
59
2002
2003
2004
74
75
2006
2007
65
40
20
0
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2001
2005
2008(f)
2009(f)
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
GOLD EXPORTS
$M
Annual
Cumulative to September
Forecast
100
89
85
90
77
80
70
68
70
59
60
50
61
54
49
40
54%
66
43
52
41
926%
43
27
30
34
20
300%
10
3
12
0
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008(f) 2009(f)
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
EXPORTS DRIVEN
BY DEMAND
FACTORS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
TOURISM EARNINGS
$M
1100
1000
5%
900
10%
800
718
700
754
742
683
639
600
555
500
400
733
792
448
387
300
200
100
0
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e)
2007(e)
2008(f)
2009(f)
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
MINERAL WATER EXPORTS
$M
180
Annual
160
10%
16%
140
Cumulative to September
135
122
120
Forecast
105
100
87
80
5%
68
77
60
46
40
25
20
0
29
35
10
8
22
22
2000
2001
2002
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2003
52
56
81
63
39
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008(f) 2009(f)
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
TEXTILES, CLOTHING &
FOOTWEAR* EXPORTS
$M
400
Annual
377
360
Cumulative to September
344
Forecast
320
270
280
252
281
240
252
262
200
160
179
181
188
142
1%
109
120
110
111
4%
109
80
111
80
80
83
2006
2007
2008(f)
40
0
2000
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2009(f)
*Includes Garments, Textiles and Footwear
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
COMMERCIAL BANKS’ PRIVATE
SECTOR LENDING
%
$M
2,720
2,700
2,680
2,660
2,640
2,620
2,600
2,580
2,560
2,540
2,520
2,500
2,480
2,460
2,440
2,420
2,400
30
Value
Annual Percent Change
Credit Ceiling ($2,426m)
25
20
15
9.0%
10
5
0
N D
2006
J
F M A M J
J
2007
A S O N D
J
F M A M J
J A S O
2008