Transcript (UAI) PPT 12.19.06 - UCAR Africa Initiative

Applications-Focused Research on
the African Weather & Climate
Systems
UCAR Africa Initiative Meeting, Boulder
December 19th 2006
Fredrick Semazzi
[http://climlab4.meas.ncsu.edu]
North Carolina State University
Outline of the Talk
(i)
Multi-scale Modeling and Analysis of the
Variability of the African Climate – Nile
Basin
(ii)
ISET Atlantic Hurricanes Research (West
Africa)
(iii) Related activities and potential partners
OVERALL ANALYSIS AND MODELLING STRATEGY OF THE
PROPOSED PROJECT
Nile Basin Climate
Variability Problem
River Nile
Lake
Victoria
… regional significance…

The Nile Basin water supports about 300 million people from 10 African countries

Los Alamos (US)-March 19, 2006 (NV): Former ambassador David Shin …on the Nile basin
… the "water war" that can clearly be seen approaching like a tidal wave…

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (The Associated Press) - African countries could face water wars if
the power of their mighty rivers isn't properly harnessed and shared

KAMPALA, May 4, 2006 (New Vision) : Uganda, 27 million … crippling power shortages
have caused daily black-outs … its hydropower capacity of 380 Mega Watts (MW) on the
River Nile has fallen to 135 MW because of the extended regional drought.

AP Special Correspondent, Sat Dec 9: Vast African lake levels dropping fast… at 27,000
square miles, the size of Ireland, Victoria is the greatest of Africa's Great Lakes — the
biggest freshwater body after Lake Superior. And it has dropped fast, at least six feet in the
past three years, and by as much as a half-inch a day this year…the report, by U.S.-based
Water Resources and Energy Management International… a further dramatic drop in
Victoria's water levels might even turn off this spigot for the Nile, a lifeline for more than 100
million Egyptians, Sudanese and others

CLIMATE RESEARCH can contribute to a comprehensive resolution of the threat of an
international-scale water crisis among the Nile Basin region countries by clarifying the
contribution of climate variability to the regional water problem
Aerial view of Nalubaale-Kiira Dam
Complex: Uganda
THE AGREED CURVE
Dramatic Drop in Lake
Victoria Level
“no trend”
pre-1961
lake levels
climate variability
or
excessive release?
ENSO-IOZM
excessive
release?
Drought?
Drought …YES!
Excessive Release-YES!
Figure A–1: Actual and Agreed Curve–prescribed total releases at Nalubaale and Kiira
Dams for September 2004 to early March 2006. It can be seen that the actual releases
were far greater than those prescribed by the Agreed Curve. Indeed, during the period
September 2004 to March 2006, the actual releases were 194% of those prescribed by
the agreed curve: almost double (Daniel Kull)
“no trend”
pre-1961 lake
levels
1961-62
IO Warming
97-98 El Nino
RegCM3-POM coupled
model lake surface
temperature & rainfall;
Anyah & Semazzi (2006)
Water Balance model
(Tate et al, 2004)
Lake Victoria levels; gauge at source of the River Nile & satellite
radar altimeter data from USDS/NASA/UMD at
http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/
downscaling
Global NCEP January Temperature Anomaly
Pattern, 2006 minus average of 2001-2005
downscaling
MODIS (satellite)
RegCM3 RCM
NCEP Reanalysis
RegCM3 RCM
Surface temperature, RH & winds; RegCM3 model verification
against MODIS & NCEP (Onol & Semazzi, 2006).
Lake Victoria Lake Level Predictions
13.2
13
12.8
12.6
Qin=Inflow
12.4
P=Precipitation over lake
12.2
E=Evaporation over lake
A=Area of the lake
12
11.8
11.6
11.4
11.2
11
modeled lake level (1year predict ion)
10.8
Act ual lake level (Dec)
10.6
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
(based on modified Tate et al (2004) method
1995
Preliminary Plan for Ship Transects
(>2 weeks)
Drifters for surface currents (@
2k) + boats for relocation &
synoptic measurements
ADCP: Acoustic
Doppler Current
Profiles (3 @ $30K)
CTD: Conductivity,
Temperature and Depth (3 @
10K)
Ship transects
Land-based temporary
meteorological stations
Summary of Nile Basin Study
 Lake circulation is characterized by two counterrotating gyres (in both ideal and real geometry
simulations)
 Coupling of the lake is important for required details
of the subcatchment temperature/rainfall required in
the calculations for the lake levels & other
applications
 A multiscale approach is required
 Framework can play a major role in defining required
model accuracy
NOAA-ISET
Partner Institutions
Interdisciplinary Scientific Environmental Technology
Cooperative Science Center
RESEARCH THRUST AREAS
Development of new sensors and lidars
systems for more accurate climate
analysis.
MISSION
Train and educate students in NOAA
scientific areas and develop technology
and analysis techniques of global
data sets for improved understanding
of climate change.
Development of algorithms for
retrieving data from a wide range of
sensor networks.
Thrust area II
Global Observing systems:
numerical and physical
research
Use high resolution imager
data and historical
correlations
c
Sunphotometer
Thrust area I
Sensor science
and technology:
Basic research,
Sensor technology
development
University Partners:
University of Alaska Southeast (UAS)
California State University-Fresno (CSU-Fresno)
City University of New York (CUNY)
Fisk University (FU)
University of North Carolina at Pembroke (UNCP)
North Carolina State University (NCSU)
University of Minnesota (UM)
Industrial Partners
Simpson Weather Associates
Arete Associates
SAS Institute Inc.
Vexcel Corporation: Remote Sensing
Government Partners
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service East
National Technology Support Center
Brookhaven National Laboratory
NC Department of Environment and Natural
Resources Center for Geographic Information and
Analysis
SURA: Southeastern Universities Research
Association
GOALS
Improve functionality of
integrated optical sensor
packages.
Provide algorithms for
atmospheric monitoring of traces
gases.
Mine multiple data sets from
multiple sensor platforms.
Develop methods, which
combine the benefits of
physical models and statistical
analysis for sensor data fusion.
Development of web based
data exploratory algorithms for
determining the suitability of
global data sets .
Development of in-depth signal
detection techniques, which
exploit recent research
developments in multivariate
stream data mining.
Thrust area III
Data mining &
Fusion and geospatial
data models
Understanding Climate Change
(1) Conduct research to develop new sensors for profiling atmospheric trace constituents and meteorological variables, water quality sensors and integrated
sensor packages designed for deployment in the economically important coastal regions.
(2) Conduct research using both numerical and empirical methods on the analysis of observing systems and use remote sensing to characterize and specify
significant factors affecting tropical storms to provide better-forecast models and predictions.
(3) Develop data-fusion techniques, develop sensor networks and multiagent and grid computing to support implementation of the analytic techniques.
(4) Develop capacity in research in NOAA scientific areas within the lead and partner institutions, to be able to train and educate students in NOAA scientific
areas.
(5) Establish NOAA-ISET graduate and undergraduate scholarships at all partner universities during the first year of the ISET Center.
(6) Develop a concentration in atmospheric sciences and climate modeling within the Ph.D. program in Energy and Environmental Sciences during the first year
of the ISET Center.
(7) Establish an undergraduate degree program in Earth System Science at NCA&T and some partner universities during the first year of the ISET Center.
Phases of Hurricane
Development
Americas Phase
Ocean Phase
African Phase
Understanding Transition Phases
of Hurricane Development
African Waves
Landfall
?
TC
Hurricane
?
Storm
?
Depression
Unique contribution
?

Analysis of multi-dimensional global observing systems to identify linkages
among hurricane developmental phases and response to climate change–
Diagnostic Methods

Study of 2005 extreme hurricane season & 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 - to
investigate role of the African Easterly wave activity - RegCM3.

WRF individual Hurricane simulation experiments to study the relative roles of
various climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions –
WRF/HYCOM for background climatology & WRF (version with moving-nest, vortextracking algorithm).

ALL-domain seasonal simulations to investigate the relative roles of climatic
forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions (if additional support
can be identified)-WRF( version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm).

Simulations to support design of future observations sensor networks; 4DVAR
with different combinations of observational data. WRF + 4DVAR

Investigate the role of ocean color on hurricane development (If funds are identified)

Dependency of inland flooding on different landfall regimes & pre-existing
climatic conditions. Extend the HTDF to include (intensity, direction, speed
information)- HAM3d Watershed coupled model – single CPU
Teleconnections
H
H
L
African Easterly Wave
Track Axis
L
Teleconnections
H
H
L
African Easterly Wave
Track Axis
L
QuikSCAT is a
polar orbiting;
1800 km wide
measurement
swath; Generally
results in twice
per day coverage
over a given
geographic
region.
Current date and
time: 05:32 GMT,
Nov 4 2006
SEAWiFS Ocean Color:
Chlorophyll
Current date and time:
05:32 GMT, Nov 4 2006
… difficult to interpret …
Our new method is based on the identification of
“hurricane track patterns” using “Hurricane Track
Density Function”
C ( x , t )  W ( x  x j , t  t j )
j
where
2 x
2 t
W ( x, t )  cos
cos
Sx
St
W (x, t )  0
,otherwise.
when
x  t 

 ,
2
Sx
2 St
EOF1
EOF3
EOF2
HTDF EOFs: (a) HTDF
space field associated with
EOF 1 (30.47%), (b) HTDF
space field associated with
EOF2 (12.89%) and (c)
HTDF
space
field
associated
with
EOF3
(9.72%)
• Regions economic unions
• ACMAD (Western Africa) - ECOWAS
• ICPAC (Eastern Africa) – IGAD
• DMCH (Southern Africa) – SADC
• Universities
• University of Ghana, Nairobi, Capetown, Cairo
• International
• WCRP/VACS – “Clearing House”
• WMO/RA I
• WMO/CLIPS
•British Africa Initiative
• Canadian Africa Initiative
• Scandanavian Africa Initiative
• Other
• AMMA, IRI, World Bank, SSA-NSF