Transcript Keynote address: Production based approach to measuring GDP

The Australian Approach to the
Production Based
Measurement of GDP
Ian Ewing
Deputy Australian Statistician
Macroeconomics and Integration Group
June 2009
Topics
•
•
•
•
•
•
The statistics ABS produces
What the statistics are used for
The methods used to compile them
The data sources used
The resources required
Challenges for the future
Statistics Produced:
Quarterly Industry Value Added
Statistics Produced:
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A); Total factor
income: Current prices
Gross State Product by Industry
New
South
Wales
Victoria
Queensland
South
Australia
Western
Australia
Tasmania
Northern
Territory
Australian
Capital
Territory
Australia
4343
6676
7112
2657
3258
1047
356
7
25456
Mining (B);Total factor income: Current prices
10785
5372
19733
2657
42466
453
4441
19
86109
Manufacturing (C);Total factor income: Current prices
34009
29691
18000
8580
11292
2486
1130
299
105488
6601
6975
3715
2182
3529
835
207
508
24551
Construction (E);Total factor income: Current prices
24644
15891
17965
4252
14609
1081
803
1884
81129
Wholesale trade (F);
Total factor income: Current prices
15901
14544
9050
2754
4625
599
217
319
48009
Retail trade (G); Total factor income:
Current prices
18124
13482
13460
3804
5921
1205
509
863
57368
7422
3999
5172
1317
1622
488
352
415
20787
Transport and storage (I);
Total factor income: Current prices
16955
10060
12654
3006
6485
1083
650
533
51425
Communication services (J);
Total factor income: Current prices
8027
6890
3755
1206
2330
357
306
386
23256
Finance and insurance (K);
Total factor income: Current prices
34824
22121
9631
4459
5169
1242
487
803
78736
Property and business services (L);
Total factor income: Current prices ;
50650
34124
21150
6358
16411
1007
902
2544
133145
Government administration and
defence (M); Total factor income: Current prices
11795
6455
8571
2829
3034
1086
1036
7349
42156
Education (N); Total factor income:
Current prices
13894
12576
8054
2953
4276
1122
479
1130
44484
Health and community services (O);
Total factor income: Current prices
20928
15236
12315
4944
6899
1707
638
1174
63843
Cultural and recreational services (P);
Total factor income: Current prices
5575
4152
2418
1022
1499
256
208
563
15692
Personal and other services (Q);
Total factor income: Current prices
6528
4719
3966
1663
2260
374
329
657
20495
31010
20060
17100
5965
9222
1422
1318
1974
88071
322013
233022
193823
62791
144907
17850
14367
21428
1010199
Total all industries; Taxes less subsidies
on production and imports: Current prices
37831
33492
22319
10583
10513
3499
1275
2160
121672
Total all industries;
Statistical discrepancy (I); Current prices
96
71
57
20
41
6
4
6
301
Total all industries;
Gross operating surplus: Current prices;
111148
74518
72998
20831
74984
5654
7676
5877
373684
Electricity, gas and water (D);
Total factor income: Current prices
Accommodation, cafes and
restaurants (H); Total factor income: Current prices
Ownership of dwellings; Gross operating surplus and
gross mixed income: Current prices
Total all industries;
Total factor income: Current prices ;
Statistics Produced:
GDP(P) Time-series
GDP
Quarterly growth rates
5
Trend
4
SA
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
-3
Uses of Statistics
•
•
•
•
•
•
Industry contribution to growth
Measuring structural change
Measuring productivity
Informing and evaluating public policy
Economic and business analysis
Forecasting
Uses of Statistics:
Industry Contributions Growth
Uses of Statistics:
Structural Change in the Economy
INDUSTRY SHARE OF GVA, 1993–94 and 2007–08
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity
Construction
Wholesale
Retail
Accommodation
Transport & storage
Communication
Finance & insurance
Property & business
Government
Education
Health & community
Cultural & recreational
1993-94
2007-08
Personal & other
0
3
Industry GVA at basic prices as a proportion of total GVA at basic prices.
6
9
%
12
15
18
GDP per hour worked Real - Non-farm ;
154.6
143.6
135.4
123.2
116.4
112
111.1
113.7
114.3
113.4
112
114
116.4
119.8
118.4
115
117.1
114.3
111.2
107
103.1
100
96.6
Year
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Uses of Statistics:
Measuring productivity
Productivity changes
110
100
90
MF P
La bour
80
Ca pita l
70
60
198 6
198 8
199 0
199 2
199 4
199 6
199 8
200 0
200 2
200 4
200 6
200 8
Uses of Statistics:
Informing Policy
Change in Australian sectoral growth rates (percentage points lost or gained) due to
net mitigation costs under the 550 parts per million CO2 equivalent scenario,
compared to no mitigation, 2013-2100.
From the Garnaut review Figure 11.5.
Uses of Statistics:
Economic and Business Analysis
Uses of Statistics:
Economic Forecasting
Table 3.2: Domestic economy forecasts(a)
Uses of Statistics:
Policy Evaluation
Methods Used
• The SNA Framework
• Three estimates: Income, Expenditure,
Production
• Supply & Use Tables
• Deflation (Chain Volume Indexes)
• Agriculture
• Owner Occupied Housing
• International Comparability
• Seasonal Adjustment
• Financial Intermediation Services
Methods Used:
The SNA Accounting Framework
Transaction accounts
1
2
3
4
Sectors
1 = Non-financial corporations
2 = Financial corporations
3 = General government
4 = Household + Uninc +
NPISH
5 = Rest of world
5
Production
Production
GDP
Income &
use of Income
Stock accounts
Stock accounts
Other flows accounts
Saving
1
2
3
4
1
5
Opening
Opening
Balance
Balance sheet
Capital
Non-financial assets
5
1
Transactions
3
4
Financial assets
and liabilities
Net worth
+
Other changes
5
Non-financial assets
Net lending
+
2
Closing
Balance sheet
Financial assets
and liabilities
Financial assets
and liabilities
Net worth
Opening stock
4
Non-financial assets
Financial
Financial
assets
Financial assets
andliabilities
liabilities
and
3
Other changes
in assets
Non-financial assets
Net lending
Non-financial
assets
2
=
Closing stock
Methods Used:
Three ways to measure GDP
• GDP(P): The production measure that calculates
the total value added by producer enterprises in the
economy: i.e. the difference between the value of
outputs produced and the value of goods and
services consumed in production (intermediate
inputs) adjusted for taxes and subsides on those
products.
• GDP(E): The expenditure based measure which
calculates what government and households spend
on the acquisition of those products.
• GDP(I): The income based measure which sums
the earnings which households derive from
providing labour and capital services for use in
generating production.
Methods Used:
Three ways to measure GDP
Methods Used:
Supply and Use Tables
Table 1. Supply of products at basic prices and purchasers’ prices
Output of Industries
at basic prices
Industry
A
Product
A
Product
B
Product
C
Product
D
Total
Supply
Industry
B
Industry
C
Imports
Total
supply at
basic
prices
(output of
industries
plus
imports)
Trade
and
transport
margins
Taxes
less
subsidies
on
products
Total supply
at
purchasers’
prices
Methods Used:
Supply and Use Tables
Table 2. Use of products at purchasers’ prices
Intermediate use
by industries
Industry A
Product A
Product B
Product C
Product D
Total use at
purchasers’
prices
Compensation of
employees
Gross operating
surplus
Other taxes less
subsidies on
production
Industry output
at basic prices
Industry B
Total
intermediate
use
Industry C
Final
demand
Exports
Change in
inventories
Total use of
products
supply at
purchasers’
prices
Methods Used:
Supply and Use Tables
• Output – Intermediate Use + margins + taxes on products
– subsidies = Compensation of Employees + gross
operating surplus + other taxes on production – subsidies
on production
GDP(P) = GDP(I)
• Supply=Use
Output + margins + Imports + Taxes on products –
Subsidies on products = Intermediate Use + Domestic
Final Use + Inventory changes + exports
• Output – Intermediate Use + Margins + net taxes on
products = Domestic Final Use + Inventory Change +
Exports – Imports
GDP(P) = GDP(E)
Methods Used:
Supply and Use Tables
• Reconciles the three measures of
GDP
• Provides a systematic framework
for identifying sources of error
Methods Used
•
•
•
•
•
•
Deflation (Chain Volume Indexes)
Agriculture
Owner Occupied Housing
Financial Intermediation Services
International Comparability
Seasonal Adjustment
Data Sources
•
•
•
•
•
Classification
Business Register
Administrative data sources
Business Surveys
Price Indexes
Data Sources
Data Sources:
Classification
• Industry: ANZSIC (ISIC Rev3)
• Commodity: ANZSPC (CPC)
• ANZSISC (ISISC)
Data Sources:
Business Register
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Built on Tax Administration
Unduplicated
Comprehensive
“Profiling” largest/complex firms
Core Classifications
Births/deaths
Size Measures
Data Sources
• Administrative data sources
• Business Surveys
• Prices Indexes
Resources
• Compiling Macro Economic Statistics:
• Compiling National Accounts:
220 Person Years
64 Person Years
• Compiling Annual and Quarterly GDP:
43 Person Years
• Compiling GDP(P):
11 Person Years
• Infrastructure and Source Data:
292 Person Years
Resources
Function
Used for which approach?
Cost (2007-08)
Business Register
P, I and E
$3.7m
Economic standards and classifications
P, I and E
$1.2m
Annual Economy Wide Statistics
P, I and E (inventories)
$2.5m
Labour Employer Surveys
I
$3m
Supply-Use Tables
P, I and E
$1.3m
Quarterly business indicators
P, I and E (inventories + capex)
$3m
Retail Trade
E
$1m
International Trade data
E
$1.6m
Construction
P and E
$2.1m
Government Finance Stats
P, I and E
$2.4m
Financial Statistics
P, I
$1.8m
Consumer Price Indexes
E (indirectly I)
$2.8m
Producer Price Indexes
P and E (indirectly I)
$2.3m
Compilation systems
P, I and E
$0.2m
Production estimates compilation team
P
$0.5m
Challenges for the Future
• Scope Issues
• New Industry Classification
• Updated System of National Accounts
(SNA 08)
• Service Industry Output Measurement
• Global Financial Crisis
• Maintaining Professional Capability
Challenges for the Future:
Scope Issues
Challenges for the Future:
New Industry Classification
ANZSIC93
ANZSIC06
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Agriculture
Forestry and fishing
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Agriculture
Forestry and fishing
Mining
Mining (excluding services to mining).
Services to miming
Mining
'Mining (excluding services to mining).
Services to miming
Manufacturing
Food, beverages and tobacco
Textiles, clothing, footware and leather
Wood and paper products
Printing, publishing and recorded media
Petroleum, coal and chemicals
Non-metallic mineral products
Metal products
Machinery and equipment
Other manufacturing
Manufacturing
Food, beverages and tobacco
Textiles, clothing and other MFG
Wood and paper products
Printing
Petroleum, coal and chemicals
'Non-metallic mineral products
Metal products
'Machinery and equipment
Electricity , gas and water
Electricity
Gas
Water supply, sewerage and drainage services
Electricity , gas and water & waste
Electricity
Gas
Water and waste collection
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation, cafes and restaurants
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport and storage
Road
Air and space
Rail, pipeline and other transport
Transport services and storage
Transport , postal and warehousing
Road
Air and space
Rail, pipeline and other transport
Transport , postal and storage services
Communication services
Finance and insurance
Property and business services
Information, media & telecommunications
Finance and insurance
Rental, hiring and real estate services.
Professional, scientific and technical services.
Administrative and support services
Public administration & safety
Education and training
Health care and social assistance
Art and recreation services
Other services
Ownership of dwellings
Government administration and defence
Education
Health and community services
Cultural and recreation services
Personal and other services
Ownership of dwellings
Challenges for the Future:
• Updated System of National Accounts
(SNA 08)
• Service Industry Output Measurement
• Global Financial Crisis
• Maintaining Professional Capability
Thank you &
Questions